Re: Milk prices
[Re: AJE]
#6211904
04/08/18 02:53 PM
04/08/18 02:53 PM
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Joined: May 2012
Posts: 5,898 michigan,USA
seniortrap
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trapper
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 5,898
michigan,USA
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There has been a glut of milk here in Michigan.
Enough that last fall they were dumping 2 out of 3 tankers.
Its a shame.
Vietnam--1967 46th. Const./Combat Engineers
"Chaotic action is preferable to orderly inaction." "After the first shot, all plans go out the window!"
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Re: Milk prices
[Re: DWC]
#6212033
04/08/18 06:45 PM
04/08/18 06:45 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 4,402 Iowa
PaulB
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Posts: 4,402
Iowa
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I heard walmart has their own farms? Is that why they are 1.40 a gallon vs the small local grocery at 2.75 or 3.00? Same with eggs. Wally world is about 50 cents and local is 2 bucks. $3.00 + for a gallon of skim milk (white water) in spirit lake
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Re: Milk prices
[Re: AJE]
#6212144
04/08/18 08:57 PM
04/08/18 08:57 PM
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Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 599 pa.
jarentz
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Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 599
pa.
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I have a friend that just sold his dairy cattle.He was milking 3 times aday and said it wasn't worth it.
jarentz
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Re: Milk prices
[Re: AJE]
#6212150
04/08/18 09:05 PM
04/08/18 09:05 PM
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,939 east central WI
Dirty D
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Posts: 1,939
east central WI
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From the USDA
"The pricing of milk in the United States is part market-determined, and part publicly administered through a wide variety of pricing regulations."
Is this a good system? Doesn't sound like it. If it was market driven then at the lows the inefficient producers would be forced out leaving efficient producers. If the system helps to keep the inefficient around then when the price goes up there is a flood of supply, prices crash. What to keep a more steady higher price, let the inefficient ones die.
I had heard awhile ago that in a nut shell there is too much supply in the Milk market. Is this true?
The Wife and I don't drink dairy milk, she drinks Almond milk, me nothing. We occasionally will buy whole milk for cooking. I do like my Ice Cream, the good stuff, Breyers, made with real cream. I like it too much
Last edited by Dirty D; 04/08/18 09:08 PM.
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Re: Milk prices
[Re: bblwi]
#6212163
04/08/18 09:17 PM
04/08/18 09:17 PM
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Joined: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,939 east central WI
Dirty D
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trapper
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Posts: 1,939
east central WI
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Large grocery marts and convenience stores many times sell milk as loss leaders to bring in customers to buy the higher profit items. Most retail groceries operate on 2-5% margins and most times dairy is sold as a loss, which is why it is always in the back so customers go through the aisles to buy the high profit packaged items. You can drink a gallon a milk a day but that does not impact that fluid milk sales have dropped every year for over 40 decades. Manufacturing of dairy products is where the profit is and also the jobs in the industry.
As to dairy farms being the way they are today in the USA. We want to buy $1.90 per gallon milk it is not going to be produced by a family milking 60-70 cows that need to buy health insurance, live, save for children costs and for retirement etc. We have actually added cost to the total production system and the response by good herd managers is to produce very high levels of milk production per cow, milk a lot of cows with less labor and invest in capital that will help them with cash flow issues. That has made the modern dairy farmer a manager of money and people instead of cows and land and that increases investment per cow and debt to finance those investments. People who are not good at managing money or people can not be successful long term when dealing in an industry that is demanding those skill sets.
Why have the very huge wealthy companies not in agriculture been reluctant to buy out huge dairies to control the market? It is because they know that it is fluctuating, fickle market with very, very narrow supply demand risks and inherently a very low return and thus they choose not to invest in areas where real money can be lost instead of just book money. Many wealthy businesses and individuals are investors in farms for tax loss purposes but a certain return and very good tax treatment on losses. That will soon be gone with a 21% tax instead of 35%. Not nearly the need to invest in losses when your reward for doing so has dropped by 50%.
Bryce Very good interesting post! First of all farming is a business, just like any business if you can't manage money you should not be in business. Is there any room in the farming business for a small guy who maybe milks, makes cheese and sells the cheese. Cutting out as many layers of the supply chain as possible. Every level of the supply chain adds cost with usually no benefit to the end consumer. More of a high end artisan cheese. My thought is to roll as much into one business so that while you are not the cheapest but you offer a product and a quality that the big guys don't.
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Re: Milk prices
[Re: Donnersurvivor]
#6212286
04/08/18 11:20 PM
04/08/18 11:20 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,338 East-Central Wisconsin
bblwi
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trapper
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,338
East-Central Wisconsin
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There are always opportunities in any business at any time by anyone able to focus on what they want and how to get there. Think out of the box and I mean way, way out of the box. The typical dairy farmer that would like to milk 100 cows in a small parlor, own 200 acres and buy the remainder of their feed and hire one full time employee can not typically get into that type of operation today. That farm may be worth about 3 million dollars with a modest line of machinery, equipment, buildings, home, land, cows and heifers. The debt service alone on 3 million with even our current low rates would be about $ 500 per day just to get out of the original debt in 20 years. Then you need to operate the farm, replace equipment, live, save and retire. The best way to get started would be to find a niche market in an area with enough people and enough income to support local, maybe organic food and produced or processed on site. Licenses are an issue but don't let that stop you if you know what you can and are willing to do. Most farmers don't choose to be involved in production, processing, marketing and or spending time with customers so that is a niche that can work at reasonable entrance costs. Many farmers are a lot like trappers in their mindsets. They only like doing what they like to do and anyone even a customer if they look too citified or don't get up at 5 AM are just lazy people that get under their skin. Learning how to market to the customer is the key to being able to establish a sustainable business that you can grow with and into.
Bryce
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Re: Milk prices
[Re: AJE]
#6212471
04/09/18 09:21 AM
04/09/18 09:21 AM
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 1,785 Georgia
Kirk De
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Posts: 1,785
Georgia
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Alot of little guys get replaced when a farm has 30,000 cows milking on it. And were do they find the cheap labor to run a farm with 30,000 cows milking? South of the border of course. That ceased in Feb. From what I understand they have lost their market.
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Re: Milk prices
[Re: Kirk De]
#6212554
04/09/18 11:02 AM
04/09/18 11:02 AM
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Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 4,574 MN
Donnersurvivor
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Alot of little guys get replaced when a farm has 30,000 cows milking on it. And were do they find the cheap labor to run a farm with 30,000 cows milking? South of the border of course. That ceased in Feb. From what I understand they have lost their market. Naw all sorts of immigrants still doing farm labor legal and illegal. To protect the farms they hire sub contractors now so Mr Reds dairy hires Elmexicano milkers and cattle care, Elmexicano supplies the labor and Mr Red writes the owner of Elmexicano a check every month and Elmexicano hires the labor without covering them with work comp or paying taxes on them. If the GOVT comes down on Mr Red he just points to Elmexicano and if they GOVT comes down on Elmexicano they have no assets other than a old junk van typically. Mr Red gets rich and grows and the little guys get pushed out.
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Re: Milk prices
[Re: AJE]
#6212640
04/09/18 12:52 PM
04/09/18 12:52 PM
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 1,785 Georgia
Kirk De
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Posts: 1,785
Georgia
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Originally Posted By: Kirk De Quote: Alot of little guys get replaced when a farm has 30,000 cows milking on it. And were do they find the cheap labor to run a farm with 30,000 cows milking? South of the border of course.
That ceased in Feb. From what I understand they have lost their market.
Naw all sorts of immigrants still doing farm labor legal and illegal. To protect the farms they hire sub contractors now so Mr Reds dairy hires Elmexicano milkers and cattle care, Elmexicano supplies the labor and Mr Red writes the owner of Elmexicano a check every month and Elmexicano hires the labor without covering them with work comp or paying taxes on them. If the GOVT comes down on Mr Red he just points to Elmexicano and if they GOVT comes down on Elmexicano they have no assets other than a old junk van typically. Mr Red gets rich and grows and the little guys get pushed out.
I was talking about Mexico, not the U.S.
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