….so here we are four years later, and it does seem to be getting anything better. Fur it a peak since the 80's, and in the snap of a finger it was gone. It seems to be these were the issues that caused the decline. Correct me if I'm wrong.

China: cracked down on fur importers not paying taxes, put a number in jail, should have amounted to a hiccup in the supply chain. Any barriers concerning China now?

Russia: the destination of most wild fur. Invaded the Crimea leading to trade restrictions. I presume this meant less Russian oil be sold on the global market. Are those same restrictions still impacting fur? At the same time, OPEC flooded the global market with oil in order to make fracking unprofitable. The resulting gas glut equally hurt Russian economy regardless of trade restrictions, as they rely heavily on oil exports. But now the supply has leveled off and oil prices back up. So fur should be on the rise?

Greece: economic problems in Greece crushed a lot of furriers close to 10 years ago. But there doesn't seem to have been a hiccup in Greece in 3 years now.

Economically, I don't see why fur prices remain in the toilet. What am I missing? Regardless of Russia and the price of oil, it seemed Asian markets for end users was on the rise 5 years ago, what happened with that? What happened to the Asian demand for otter? What is NAFA doing in Asia to market wild fur???

The main reason why most fur is in the toilet is because of the over production of ranch mink. Way too many ranch mink being produced the past 5 or so years. China is saturated in mink. Luckily there is a downward trend in production that is happening right now.

Also sanctions have hurt Russia a lot taking them out of the market. And if Russia is hurting it hurts Greece too.

Weird. Last year I made the most I’ve ever made in trapping fur. Lucky for me I have a wide range of animals to trap and I can focus on the higher value items if I want. If the market stayed like this for 100 years, I’d be ok with that!

They said the same thing in 1850,then it came back gangbusters in the 1880's.
There were always ups and downs in the fur market,always will be.This current downswing is nothing new.

But I’ll be dead in 30 years.....

Dang me too!!

won't be long and we will know who the ones were that really meant it when they said"i'd trap for nothing"

Yeppers.
Been saying this and most thought i was nuts. (might be right) The auction houses were trying to tell the...
Well, it's a warm winter in China.

We are suffering from a lack of markets, without a truly vibrant Russian market and the ban on using raccoon in the US market we are dead in the water. When Russia is active you have all the other players buying to fill that demand, Greece, Turkey and China all buy wild fur to supply that market. The other internal problem with the Russia market is RFID tags.
https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-tag-fur-imports-bid-fight-customs-fraud.html/

US companies will not buy raccoon because of internal bans on using raccoon because of the video skinning them alive in China.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...-sold-West.html

Factor in the lack of Russia and you have the fur market in freefall. Until the supply equals the demand you have today's present market. Three years ago nobody would have believed the present state of todays fur market. At least 2 more years of this before the present production and stored skins are used up.

Really? A video made by AR rights activist is believed as SOP by fur producers? Thats why the coon market tanked? You sure it's not more warm weather?

Just one of the present problems, along with CITES issues on species that are listed. That video caused a lot of problems.
All these things cause tipping points and have an effect on the overall market, at least the price of oil is heading in the right direction.
Cold weather and fashion can change things in a hurry.

To give you an idea of the world fur production. Numbers are good but report is a little to optimistic.
https://www.fureurope.eu/news/world-fur-trade-is-booming-despite-china-slowdown/

If I was a car dealer and could buy new cars for a 1000 bucks for resale instead of 25,000 I would be booming to.

Ya if you were a car dealer and bought cars for 100,000 and now they are worth less than a quarter of their value you would be broke. I was talking with a Chinese buyer at the NAFA sale last week and he has a lot of skins from 2013 at high prices he can't sell. Coats in China are selling below the cost to make them just trying to use up inventory.

gibb; Do truly feel that the glut of fur in storage will be used up anytime soon? Or are we, as producer just going to continue to keep producing faster than usage?

There will be a huge pelt-out this fall which will cause a blimp in the production but by 2020 the market will be way down and that will be the start of the recover. The present mink crop is bleeding the farmers dry in comparison to the prices. Females have dropped $5.00 on average since February. Cost between 36 to 42 dollars to raise a mink that is averaging $20.
Still a lot of raccoon being held by dealers waiting for the market to recover. If Russia comes back it will improve things in a hurry.
Just heard today that the US has slapped a big tariff on fur from China.
We need the Danes to reduce their production and what I hear is the banks are pulling back in Denmark so that is a good thing.
2017 mink production was pegged at around 67 million.
This will all happen but short term the future is bleak.

By pelt out you mean liquidating what farm mink they have to lower production for the next yr?

I can see winter beaver coming up in price nicely once the market overall bounces back.
Beaver is the most versatile fur as it can be used natural as a utility fur,or plucked and sheared as a high fashon item.
There are special unique skills involved in dressing beaver that add to the cost,thus depressing its use in a down market.

As in going out of business and the ones remaining will cut production and focus hard on quality mink.

Wild fur needs Russia, even with a reduction in mink production, the sale of raccoon is very depended on Russia.