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It's been a while. #6572691
07/12/19 07:14 PM
07/12/19 07:14 PM
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Greene County,Virginia
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Corn prices are coming up pretty nicely. $5.48 for corn. $9.07 soy. Basis is $ 0.93. Harrisonburg,Virginia. The corn/ soy producers should be happy.


wanna be goat farmer.
Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6572861
07/12/19 10:50 PM
07/12/19 10:50 PM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,630
Virginia
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Virginia
Good to hear! Few people understand what goes into putting up a profitable crop. So much goes wrong along the way. Most of it is out of the hands of the farmer.

Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6573849
07/14/19 07:05 PM
07/14/19 07:05 PM
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Greene County,Virginia
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For Bryce and the other grain price followers.


wanna be goat farmer.
Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6574209
07/15/19 09:29 AM
07/15/19 09:29 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,293
East-Central Wisconsin
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The July and August USDA crop reports will help complete the puzzle that is this year's crop estimates. We already know that nearly 4 million fewer acres of corn will be planted then estimated this spring. The bean acres not as certain yet but their upward swing the last week indicates concerns in the market. Corn is up over $1 since April, beans not as much. The real reason the increases are not even greater is that we went into the year with nearly record carry overs of both corn and beans. We could take a 5 to nearly 10% loss and not have huge price increases or shortages. Trade issues and tariffs have lowered exports and that keeps grains at home as well.
The rest of the summer and early fall will find the market mostly in a speculative mode until numbers get more certain. Right now prices are going up as marketers feel they can make money buying and then selling. When crops get really short prices go way up and that is a way to limit demand and thus stretch out the small crop.
History shows that when we have large crop estimates the crop is actually larger then anticipated and thus prices drop more than anticipated. When we have a smaller estimate the crop is actually smaller than anticipated and thus prices spike even more. We don't have the demand situation and the world wheat failure that we had in 2013-2014 and thus we are dealing with a weather related crop and price situation. Politics can and does cause short spurts and cycles in markets, a severe weather related shortage can impact prices for two or more seasons.

Bryce

Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6574214
07/15/19 09:34 AM
07/15/19 09:34 AM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 34,751
Central, SD
Law Dog Online content
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Central, SD
With the plains being flooded early this year the harvest should be down, crops here are pretty hit and miss and lot was planted way late so that might end up being feed for the cattle. The corn is ankle high in some places and knee deep in other places, some fields had both heights in the same field even.


Was born in a Big City Will die in the Country OK with that!

Jerry Herbst
Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6574220
07/15/19 09:42 AM
07/15/19 09:42 AM
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N.W. Iowa
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About 5-10% here didn't get planted

Re: It's been a while. [Re: Tactical.20] #6574238
07/15/19 10:13 AM
07/15/19 10:13 AM
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East-Central Wisconsin
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WI raises about 4 million acres of corn compared to IA at close to 14 million or ILL at 11 million plus so we are not a major producer. Of our 4 million acres 1 million plus goes to silage and that will go way up this year as the crop will yield less and many acres won't make grain. In our area we have recently become a corn surplus region but this year we will be short and what that means is that the price here will be high as the corn we need will have to be hauled considerable distances and transportation costs from corn areas will add 30- to 60 cents per bushel to the cost.
We are seeing cover crop planting now and I will wait to see what crops are being planted when they emerge. We have been actually quite dry here the last 7-9 days and that is not a good thing on the regrowth for our 3rd cutting or getting water to the very late planted shallow rooted corn and beans.

Bryce

Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6574257
07/15/19 11:09 AM
07/15/19 11:09 AM
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 3,491
Southern Illinois
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I've seen some wet years in my time and one has the feeling if its flooded on me then its flooded every where. But almost always the old saying "Rain Makes Grain" holds true. But it looks as if with all the flooded acres and prevented planting acres its going to have an impact.

Last edited by Foxpaw; 07/15/19 11:11 AM.
Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6575096
07/16/19 06:45 PM
07/16/19 06:45 PM
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East-Central Wisconsin
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Have been trying to find the reason the corn, bean and wheat markets have dropped for three days in a row, corn is down about .25, beans .40 and wheat about like corn or a bit less. Could be a short term correction for the last 6 weeks rise. Lot of farmers here like to lock in there corn needs for their herds and in this market that gets tough with milk prices still borderline break even. The price of corn and beans impacts almost all of the by-product commodities as well so it gets tricky when things are moving up and down like they are now.

Bryce

Re: It's been a while. [Re: bblwi] #6575186
07/16/19 08:51 PM
07/16/19 08:51 PM
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 3,491
Southern Illinois
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Southern Illinois
Originally Posted by bblwi
Have been trying to find the reason the corn, bean and wheat markets have dropped for three days in a row, corn is down about .25, beans .40 and wheat about like corn or a bit less. Could be a short term correction for the last 6 weeks rise. Lot of farmers here like to lock in there corn needs for their herds and in this market that gets tough with milk prices still borderline break even. The price of corn and beans impacts almost all of the by-product commodities as well so it gets tricky when things are moving up and down like they are now.

Bryce


Well this is just theory and mine at that. But the commercials buy a lot of contracts. When you or I buy 1 or 2 contracts we don't even move it off the tic. But when someone puts in huge orders they don't always get their fill without making the price go up (if buying) so they cool it til some other possibly hedger or speculator is willing to bet the price will go down then try to buy under the market and they want the price to go down so they can get their buy orders filled. The speculator that's just shorted wants it to go down and he may just be day trading and he is going to buy before the close. They help keep things liquid so people get their fills. Sometimes the big guys will just sell or buy a good amount just to see how the market absorbs it, and make their decisions on that. Many esp. smaller fundamentalist don't get too technical and just buy or sell and hang on and if it goes against them will just answer the margin calls and ride. Most are speculators 1st hedgers 2nd. So if it gets too bad at least they are covered by some solid goods or need.

The market has to move back and forth or the big lots can't get theirs fills at a price they like. The big commercials do their own crop surveys and don't have to rely all on gov reports. Used to the pig reports always showed how little the gov knew. Of course due to great powers from above there is no longer a live hog market.

When a market makes its resistance from short covering then its weak or if it makes its support by long covering then its weak. The covering phase causes the market to feed on itself, and such fundamentals as weather and demand can be the spark that sets off that unraveling.

And to close, gambling can can be disastrous for the loser and great for the winners.
Its the houses job to convince the producers to hedge their products and faithfully pay those margin calls. Its for the producers protection (high insurance sometimes)and the commercials get to trade their crops without even owning them.
So maybe a little rant. I do love to talk markets and do not mind debate in any way, I realize its way bigger than me.

Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6575392
07/17/19 07:09 AM
07/17/19 07:09 AM
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Greene County,Virginia
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$5.29 for corn. $0.93 basis . $8.88 for soy. Harrisonburg,VA.


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Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6575496
07/17/19 09:49 AM
07/17/19 09:49 AM
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Greene County,Virginia
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$5.34 for corn. $ 0.93 basis. $8.94 for soy. Harrisonburg,VA.


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Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6577586
07/20/19 09:51 AM
07/20/19 09:51 AM
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Greene County,Virginia
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$5.21 for corn.$0.93 basis. Harrisonburg,VA soy $9.03


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Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6577744
07/20/19 02:19 PM
07/20/19 02:19 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,293
East-Central Wisconsin
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East-Central Wisconsin


Delivery Date Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price Futures Change
History Cash Bid
430'6s
@C9U -0.25
4.06 07/19/2019 1:19:00 PM CST
6'2
History New Crop 2019
435'6s
@C9Z -0.30
4.06 07/19/2019 1:19:00 PM CST
6'0

SOYBEANS
Delivery Date Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price Futures Change
History Cash Bid
901'4s
@S9Q -0.70
8.32 07/19/2019 1:19:00 PM CST
20'2
History New Crop 2019
919'2s
@S9X -0.80
8.39 07/19/2019 1:19:00 PM CST
20'2
Above are our current cash bids and note that for corn the basis is 25 cents per bushel. The local market is strong due to our delayed planting and anticipated short crop. That is good as our local producers don't have to truck to get a decent price. You don't truck a truck load of grain with a 1,000 bushels very far for 25 cents per bushel in today's economy. Beans are different as we produce excess beans and the market spread is higher.
The last week and now with some timely heavy rains the corn that got in about 3 weeks late, (late May) is really starting to look very good. Very green and growing 2-3 inches per day with 70 degree nights.

Bryce

Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6577751
07/20/19 02:27 PM
07/20/19 02:27 PM
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Greene County,Virginia
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Thanks Bryce.


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Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6578111
07/20/19 11:32 PM
07/20/19 11:32 PM
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East-Central Wisconsin
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If Iowa was a country it would be the 5th leading corn producing country in the world! When IA crops get a hiccup the market gets a tidal wave which can last short or long term depending upon the severity of the down or huge increase.

Bryce

Re: It's been a while. [Re: bblwi] #6579047
07/22/19 01:35 PM
07/22/19 01:35 PM
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Posts: 11,293
East-Central Wisconsin
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The last 3-4 days heavy to moderate but timely rains have lowered corn and bean prices a dime or two. We are really into a weather market right now. When plantings are on time most corn has silked and set ears by this time in the major corn regions. This year not nearly as much as of yet. This year August will be HUGE in making the corn and bean crop. Some long distance weather planners are looking at maybe a dryer and hotter late summer. This all depends upon how hot and how dry. Corn basically shuts down at temps over 86 degrees and stops at below 50 degrees. Nights over 65 and days in the upper 70s and low 80s makes corn with adequate moisture. Lot of nutrient transfer needed in the next two months which is a lot more than normal. Beans typically start flowering 11 to 14 days past the longest day of the year, which is why planting as early as possible without frost is desired as there is more foliage and leaves which means there will be more flowers and with adequate moisture in August lots of pods and pods with more larger beans per pod. Lot up in the air. The trade issues, especially with China are the biggest for beans and pork. The redoing of the NAFTA is bigger for dairy. Lot of risk out there right now. Dairy has resolved their over production issues as of now and with the upper Mid-West going to be feeding lower quality forage this year and more expensive corn and protein, production will not grow much if at all for the coming year.

Bryce

Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6579276
07/22/19 08:30 PM
07/22/19 08:30 PM
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Greene County,Virginia
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Corn $5.16. $0.93 basis. $8.88 for soy. The excitement is building. Harrisonburg,VA.

Last edited by run; 07/22/19 08:31 PM.

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Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6580079
07/24/19 07:14 AM
07/24/19 07:14 AM
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Greene County,Virginia
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Corn is $5.19. $0.93 basis. Soy $8.86. Harrisonburg,VA.


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Re: It's been a while. [Re: run] #6580445
07/24/19 07:06 PM
07/24/19 07:06 PM
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Greene County,Virginia
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Corn $5.17 $0.93 basis. Soy $8.91.


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