My guess is stock market headed south until a trade deal gets done with China. Not sure what to do with pulling out but at my age not sure I want to risk it with what is going on. Been a great ride but time to get off the horse for awhile and take a pause.

It's October...The "jinx month". History says the 4th quarter will be UP. This is just a response to the ISM number this morning. I prefer to be careful but stay invested

i'd say precious metals but i've taken a beaten recently.i'm also looking for another piece of land.i made a slow,boring exit from the stock market as i worry about as much as coonman at times.

yeah the manufacturing numbers where not good I hope we get a trade deal with China soon but I think that is on the back burner with impeachment issues.

Did China not just remove the tariff's on soybeans?

I thought they did mid September pork also.

Osky

Yes beans and pork were removed and there was a upward blip in the bean market and pork, but it fell a bit and now this last week both corn and beans are up. Don't know all the ins and outs but with harvest starting maybe yield estimations are being reviewed. Also we are looking at some potential weather issues with harvest. Delaying harvest always leads to more field loss, quality issues etc. Increasing the field loss by just 1% for 80 million acres of corn lowers estimated yield by about 120 million bushels. Beans would be about 3-40 million bushels. Market is really jumpy right now.

As to the stock market, October seems always be a correction month. We made some changes in June so we don't have as much exposure and yes tariffs and politics are big swingers now with an economy that is still strong, which is not a good thing. To me our real issue is work force in 3-10 years. There are 3-4 million baby boomers retiring per year now and in the next few years. Many won't fully retire but we need replacements and we may not have them and an economy won't grow much when we can't produce the labor force for our service oriented economy. Also many service related careers are dead in jobs, especially retail sales etc.
We just are not going to gain enough manufacturing related jobs to make up for those losses. Energy is a huge financial sector of our economy but does not employ a lot of labor when compared to the revenue generated, ditt agriculture. We are heading more towards an economy that serves hamburgers to each other and we may not have labor for that as well. I don't stop into the fast food places as much but in many places we see under 18 and over 60 working in those places.

Bryce

At my age a downturn in the market is a blessing. I can buy dirt cheap and sit on my investments for 20 or 30 years. I wish I would have had money to invest in 2008, it would have been quadrupled at this point.

Couple weeks back I read a report froma commodity trader. They are all expecting yields to be way down due to wet spring, late plant/harvest. Should be good for the price of beans but they are also worried about the quality of the corn crop

Didn’t we carry a billion bushel bean surplus thru the winter?

Osky

Interested to know other's thoughts on uranium, in particular as petition U232 is resolved/finalized.
I feel like I've been chasing a falling knife here, but it's hard not to be a buyer at these levels (at least of producers)

Just my opinion but I can't imagine natural resource stocks doing well if the global economy is in fact slowing.

The stock market has always been a rollercoaster. Thing about a rollercoaster is you only get hurt if you jump off.

If they can drag the markets down this year they might have a better chance in the next election that move should be expected.

Really nothing different now, then in the last 100 years of the stock market. It goes up, it goes down, when down it is a buyers market. I just looked and I'm up over 12% since Jan. 2019. The slump started last year about this time and then dipped in Dec. to cut all gains for the year of 2018. Some years you win and some years you lose, just part of economy and the world.

I see last week Japan signed a great trade deal with US but the media kept it a hush deal. It is a big deal but nothing was reported much on it. Do the research from a neutral news outlet and you will see the true facts of the agreement.

The link below discusses the Japanese and US trade agreement recently signed. That is probably why we have seen 10-20 cents per bushel in the corn market. We will see if that holds as harvest unfolds. Typically in the past short crops always get shorter and big crops get bigger. The status of the corn crop considered fair is the largest it has been in many years. It is hard at this time to know how much excessive moisture can cause molds in toxins in a crop but that could be the next big if.
I will check on the soybean carry over from 2018. The two things that are major factors right now is the 300 million USDA lowered estimate and the Chinese back in the picture. A large carryover is probably the main reason the price is not up about 10% or more.

Sorry forgot the link.
https://nypost.com/2019/08/25/us-japan-announce-preliminary-trade-deal-worth-billions/

The media may not have made much of the deal, but you can rest assured that the commodity market has that all factored into their knowledge base and investment plans and up until now not too much of a kick for sure.

Another factor is the administration has announced their subsidies for soybeans. If those numbers are in the over $ 1 per bushel range the market can factor that in and not pay more knowing the producers will get enough monies to plant next year again. Funny how things work, but that is the reality we live in.

Bryce

This is quite telling, that the media is willing to hurt the people in order to get trump out, almost seems like that would be illegal like economic sabotage or something.

Is it any wonder Trump toots his own horn as much as he does?

Osky

It goes down, I buy. It goes up, I buy. It flat, I buy. I don't pay any attention to it. When I have a few hundred in the account I add to whatever my smallest position is.
If it doesn't pay a divvy I don't own it.

The blue party is loving the fact that your 401K is heading south. The impeachment processes has started and is really having an effect on markets now. Let me say it isn't the only thing but that alone will take the wind out of the markets. The blue are loving the hate and have no care, what so ever, for the people losing their portfolios for the time being. They will do anything right now to win that election in 20. JM2¢