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Stock Market-When will it peak? #6729998
01/15/20 03:46 PM
01/15/20 03:46 PM
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 17,786
MN
1
160user Offline OP
trapper
160user  Offline OP
trapper
1

Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 17,786
MN
I am enjoying the rise but how much higher can it go? Sooner or later I would think the market would correct itself. I'm thinking it's time to quit while I am ahead.


I have nothing clever to put here.





Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730005
01/15/20 03:51 PM
01/15/20 03:51 PM
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 134
Hagerstown,MD
B
Bigmeat Offline
trapper
Bigmeat  Offline
trapper
B

Joined: May 2009
Posts: 134
Hagerstown,MD
Late 2018 sucked, or corrected, I see no reason why DOW 40K won't happen. With the gains we just enjoyed in 2019 even a 20% correction will still have us ahead.

Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730020
01/15/20 04:07 PM
01/15/20 04:07 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
It really is something to marvel at. Every day seems to add just a bit more.

I just put on some protection this morning. It reminds me of 1997-98. Getting scary. On the other hand....the trend is your friend


Mean As Nails
Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730021
01/15/20 04:08 PM
01/15/20 04:08 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 28,978
potter co. p.a.
P
pcr2 Offline
"Twerker"
pcr2  Offline
"Twerker"
P

Joined: May 2010
Posts: 28,978
potter co. p.a.
4 more years









Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730028
01/15/20 04:11 PM
01/15/20 04:11 PM
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 165
Pennsylvania
T
Tim64 Offline
trapper
Tim64  Offline
trapper
T

Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 165
Pennsylvania
Instead of selling, why not consider placing conditional or bracket orders that will sell automatically at a predetermined price or percentage stop loss orders that allows your investments to grow but protects you on the down side.

Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730034
01/15/20 04:15 PM
01/15/20 04:15 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
That could be a good alternative but I don't like setting stops that can be seen. If the stops are held on your broker's server that's one thing. But if they are live on the exchange or specialist's server or order book...........no thanks !


Mean As Nails
Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: Tim64] #6730062
01/15/20 04:30 PM
01/15/20 04:30 PM
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 6,683
PA
G
gryhkl Offline
trapper
gryhkl  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 6,683
PA
Originally Posted by Tim64
Instead of selling, why not consider placing conditional or bracket orders that will sell automatically at a predetermined price or percentage stop loss orders that allows your investments to grow but protects you on the down side.


I have been putting trailing stops on some of my positions. I look at it as a way to protect most of my earnings, but I really don't know what the drawbacks to doing so are.
As was said in a post above, I'm getting a little nervous. I started with a fairly small amount in Scottrade and the amount in our accounts has grown gigantically(at least to me). I got in back in Feb of 2009 when everything was near the bottom so it was, in a large part, lucky timing.
The money I have somebody else managing has done much less than half as well.

If we decide to cut way back, where is there to put the money? Our best cds are paying 3 and 3.5% and we can't find anything like that now.
What to do?

Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730064
01/15/20 04:33 PM
01/15/20 04:33 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,035
wyoming southeast
D
danvee Offline
trapper
danvee  Offline
trapper
D

Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,035
wyoming southeast
To me it depends on your age if you have 10 years where you don't need it let it ride it will be ok. If your at the end of your horizon well pigs get fat and hogs will get slaughtered.

Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730065
01/15/20 04:33 PM
01/15/20 04:33 PM
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 380
Carlisle, PA
T
trap-alaska Offline
trapper
trap-alaska  Offline
trapper
T

Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 380
Carlisle, PA
I have been thinking about the same issue - how do I get more defensive in preparation for the inevitable downturn (my crystal ball's broken so I don't know when it will happen). Since my biggest account is taxable, and is full of capital gains (thanks President Trump), I would lose 15% off the top to taxes if I sold to reallocate. I don't think the correction will be 10%, and certainly not 15-20% so I am content to ride out the gains and accept the correction.

I am getting more defensive in our IRAs since I can exchange in them without taxes.

Last edited by trap-alaska; 01/15/20 04:37 PM.
Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730074
01/15/20 04:38 PM
01/15/20 04:38 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
Gryhkl:

Are you using STOPS or STOP LIMIT orders ? The downside of the stop limit is that the market could gap down considerably at the open and be below your limit. In that instance you won't get out. With a stop, your order becomes a market order if the stop is breached.

As far as where to put funds that you generate from sales, you might consider preferred stock. They pay pretty well as far as distributions and are pretty darn low Beta.....not volatile at all. At least it's a place to hide if things get crazy


Mean As Nails
Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: trap-alaska] #6730078
01/15/20 04:39 PM
01/15/20 04:39 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by trap-alaska
I have been thinking about the same issue - how do I get more defensive in preparation for the inevitable downturn (my crystal ball's broken so I don't know when it will happen). Since my biggest account is taxable, and is full of capital gains (thanks President Trump), I would lose 15% off the top to taxes if I sold to reallocate. I don't think the correction will be 10%, and certainly not 15-20% so I am content to ride out the gains and accept the correction.

I am getting more defensive in our IRAs since I can exchange in them without taxes.


Are you in mutuals or individual stocks ?


Mean As Nails
Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730083
01/15/20 04:43 PM
01/15/20 04:43 PM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 11,135
Armpit, ak
D
Dirt Online content
trapper
Dirt  Online Content
trapper
D

Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 11,135
Armpit, ak
When the fed tries to normalize interest rates and tries to sell off their bonds again.


Who is John Galt?
Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730087
01/15/20 04:45 PM
01/15/20 04:45 PM
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,057
midland, michigan
M
midlander Offline
trapper
midlander  Offline
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M

Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,057
midland, michigan
Thats a million dollar question. Stock market is a lot like a heart monitor....up and down is perfectly normal and healthy....

Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: Dirt] #6730093
01/15/20 04:50 PM
01/15/20 04:50 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by Dirt
When the fed tries to normalize interest rates and tries to sell off their bonds again.


I think the Fed is going to have a very very difficult time doing that....ever again. They are running out of options


Mean As Nails
Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: white17] #6730094
01/15/20 04:50 PM
01/15/20 04:50 PM
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 380
Carlisle, PA
T
trap-alaska Offline
trapper
trap-alaska  Offline
trapper
T

Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 380
Carlisle, PA
Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by trap-alaska
I have been thinking about the same issue - how do I get more defensive in preparation for the inevitable downturn (my crystal ball's broken so I don't know when it will happen). Since my biggest account is taxable, and is full of capital gains (thanks President Trump), I would lose 15% off the top to taxes if I sold to reallocate. I don't think the correction will be 10%, and certainly not 15-20% so I am content to ride out the gains and accept the correction.

I am getting more defensive in our IRAs since I can exchange in them without taxes.


Are you in mutuals or individual stocks ?


Almost exclusively mutual funds. I occasionally invest in individual stocks after significant research but after comparing my winners and losers over about 10 years of investing, I was significantly lagging S&P returns. I decided to let the experts pick my stocks and spread the risk. Plus I travel a lot with the military and don't always have access to the internet, I've seen guys lose a lot of money when the market went crazy and they couldn't respond.

I would still have the capital gains issues if I redeemed growth stocks for something more defensive like consumer staples.

Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730102
01/15/20 04:58 PM
01/15/20 04:58 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
True story on the capital gains........but it isn't always 'bad' to pay taxes. At least you have something to pay taxes ON.

A lot depends on your age too.

FWIW most mutual fund managers under-perform the benchmark too. Don't feel bad.

Your mutual fund family MAY offer a fund that will increase in value as the market drops. Maybe something based on VIX or SPY.

Nothing stopping you from buying some puts on SPY or calls on VIX if you have a brokerage account. It may be best though, to sit on your hands. Most things are an overreaction to some hokey headline.


Mean As Nails
Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730112
01/15/20 05:06 PM
01/15/20 05:06 PM
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 380
Carlisle, PA
T
trap-alaska Offline
trapper
trap-alaska  Offline
trapper
T

Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 380
Carlisle, PA
True that - I feel like a fool complaining about making too much money in the markets and worrying about taxes. I'm only 52 and invested pretty aggressively and I don't panic about market corrections, time is on my side. I'll definitely research the VIX/SPY options, great suggestion.

Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: white17] #6730161
01/15/20 05:47 PM
01/15/20 05:47 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 10,421
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
trapper
Steven 49er  Offline
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S

Joined: May 2010
Posts: 10,421
mn north of blakely
Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by Dirt
When the fed tries to normalize interest rates and tries to sell off their bonds again.


I think the Fed is going to have a very very difficult time doing that....ever again. They are running out of options


Are you saying we are not in a free market environment?

The stock market will never "peak", it may correct but once it starts to go back up it will go through that peak.

That is until the Fed. runs out of options lol.


"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: Steven 49er] #6730178
01/15/20 05:59 PM
01/15/20 05:59 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,294
East-Central Wisconsin
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bblwi Offline
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,294
East-Central Wisconsin
At my age pf 72 we are quite a bit higher in percentage of our investments in securities than into more fixed investments. We have established some guidelines as to when we should move assets into more secure investments. We are comfortable for ourselves now we need to determine how much we may want to pass on or to buy into other assets for the next generations.
Another issue that arises during these times of rapid growth is about 13 years ago when I retired the first time we started to shift funds based on a predetermined balance or percent of our investments in safer versus riskier investments. When the market rises as fast as this has since 2009 one needs to either change the percentage or shift investments frequently. Some places have an automatic re-balancing program, but we chose not to do that.
Yes it is fun while it lasts. We put a designated amount away for our 3 granddaughters for college and those funds are in more growth oriented investments and they have really grown since 2009. Two are 13 and one i 9 so they have benefited from the last 10 years of growth.

Bryce

Re: Stock Market-When will it peak? [Re: 160user] #6730186
01/15/20 06:05 PM
01/15/20 06:05 PM
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 28,715
Eastern Shore of Maryland
HobbieTrapper Offline
"Chippendale Trapper"
HobbieTrapper  Offline
"Chippendale Trapper"

Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 28,715
Eastern Shore of Maryland
As long as the concrete plants and stone yards are busy let it ride.


-Goofy-
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