44 and change when I looked. It's a reflection of production. Real economy is based on production. It requires the movement of people, goods, and ideas to function. When production slows, a market like oil is pretty much screwed. Their product isn't being consumed at a normal level that they produce it at. So they end up over-producing. That drops the market price because they now have to compete harder with each other to sell. The coon market is a great example. We produced more than they wanted, and we got less for our effort. Now smaller operations tend not to be able to compete, and so they move on. Larger operation can control their output, and so they can control price, as long as people are buying. At a certain point though, producing a good can cost you more than you make. That would be the case now with our fracking industry. The current drop in oil prices suggest that countries are not producing. If they aren't producing goods, they aren't buying or they aren't buying as much. Oil is everywhere in the economies of the world. And fur is directly tied to those economies. Fur prices are gonna follow. IMO

$44.76 for WTI tonight.

What you are watching in real time is a price correction caused by, hopefully, a temporary destruction of demand. While some of you are happy for lower fuel prices, and I totally understand your feelings, you should pray this is a short term event. If the corona virus becomes uncontrollable in the United States and causes widespread economic calamity, you will live to regret your joy at lower oil and fuel prices. Your 401k's and even employment opportunities will be severely negatively affected. I think it will probably be much ado about nothing and we will experience a V-shaped recovery. If so, this will be forgotten in a few months and will simply be a golden opportunity to enter the stock market. If not, you may find yourself longing for the days of a little bit higher gasoline prices and wondering how we got here, politically speaking.

Thanks.

It always helps to remember that all petroleum is not created equal.

https://rentar.com/best-crude-oil-world-crude-oils-better-others/

Mike

I think this CV issue is being way over hyped. I heard today on that many people who contract the virus will never get ill, 80% of those who do get sick will exhibit "cold" like symptoms, and 20% will develop flue like symptoms, a percentage of those people will require hospitalization and 3% of those will die.

80,000 Americans died of the flue last year, and 14,000 have already died of the flue this year.

What's the big deal.

Well, one way to think of it is like this. 1/3 of the common colds we get are a form of corona virus. We don't have a cure or a vaccine for the common cold. We don't have a cure or a vaccine for any corona virus. Covid 19 appears as a new virus. It is a deadly virus, it is contagious. Like all flues, it has the ability to mutate and make vaccines ineffective against it. If a vaccine is not discovered, or a way to detect and isolate those infected, we could have a new deadly virus that we may encounter as easily as the common cold or flu. That would change a lot about travel, work place environment, exchange of goods and services, etc. Well, I guess those things are changing now because of the virus. That's the big deal.

Would it really?

To put things in perspective the influenza A and B 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu.

Remember these...…

Swine flu 2009
Bird flu H5N1 2013
Sars 2003
Anthrax
MRSA Antibiotic resistant staphylococcus which is living in every hospital in the world

Just a short list of those things that we did not know anything about when they came out. Guys you have a better chance of dying when you go to the hospital than you do this flu. It is going to be 65* and sunny here today. Opening our windows and airing things out. It is great to have a couple weeks of supplies around and I do but this will go as fast as it came. Markets will rebound and life will go on. Times like this it is good to leave the TV off and go outside and do some yard work. LLL

From Barron's yesterday afternoon


Oil Is Still Plunging as Demand Falls. One Big Buyer Is Out There.

By Avi Salzman
Feb. 28, 2020 1:24 pm ET





Fear of how the virus could affect the world economy, and demand, has sent oil prices lower.


The oil selloff gained steam on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures plunging more than 6% before recovering slightly. One gigantic market participant—China—appears to be taking advantage.

Near midday, futures on WTI were down 4.6% to $44.92. WTI hasn’t closed below $45 since 2018.

Brent crude futures also briefly fell below $50, to levels where Brent hasn’t closed since 2017. Brent is down more than 25% since the virus began making headlines in mid-January.

Oil stocks were holding up better. Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) traded down 0.2% to $49.75 after selling off more dramatically earlier in the week.

Oil has proven to be among the weakest assets in the coronavirus selloff. Traders entered 2020 already feeling pessimistic about oil, even before the outbreak made headlines, given expectations for continued supply growth and muted demand. The spread of the virus has intensified those fears, and led analysts to slash estimates for demand.

“A lack of buyers and cancellation of contracts has prompted many companies to park their crude on very large crude carriers near Singapore,” according to S&P Global Platts, which just reduced its estimate for global growth in demand in 2020 to 860,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate of 1.33 million barrels. That would be the slowest growth since 2011.

Things could still get worse. “If this epidemic were to turn into a global pandemic, with other large economies being affected in a similar way China has so far been, then the effects on global oil demand in the first half of 2020 could be close to catastrophic,” Platts Analytics said.

One buyer has emerged to soak up excess supply, according to RBC Capital Markets. China has been buying oil for storage, a dynamic that is keeping spot prices relatively strong.

“Preliminary satellite imaging of floating roof tanks indicate that China has increased crude stocks by some 28 million barrels so far this month,” wrote RBC’s Michael Tran. “China comprises over 80% of global stock builds this month and voluntary or not, the barrels have gone into storage and are unlikely to come out in the near term.”

Tran wonders whether weakness in the futures market will eventually hit spot prices, or if strength in the spot market will eventually convince futures traders to bid up prices.

“Given this paradox, either benchmark prices will rally or physical markets will soften, but the status quo is unlikely to hold,” he wrote. “The latter is more likely, in our opinion, but at face value, the firmer physical market suggest that crude demand does not appear as acutely dire as the refinery run cuts currently indicate.”

OPEC is planning to meet in Vienna next week to discuss whether to cut supply in an effort to boost prices. The threat of the virus even hangs over that meeting. “OPEC has said it is monitoring the health situation in Vienna after cases of the virus were reported,” Platts says.

Gas at the pump dropped 10 percent overnight here.

That's not real reassuring Larry. It started, according to a recent report from S.Korea, some time in November in Wuhan, China. This according to S. Korean "church" members who were visiting Wuhan during that time. According to them, the virus was already present and spreading when they arrived in Wuhan. IF, we can believe the reports out of China, things are starting to level off and drop, in China. Personally, I had a hard time believing China before they had a problem. I find it a little harder now, not easier. I also consider that China hasn't updated infections among it's medical professionals since Feb. 14th. Of course our own CDC hasn't updated it's report either. And just last night a CDC members insisted that Americans can keep track by simply checking through the CDC, which has provided a chart with the info. Info that's a couple weeks old as of last night.

Am I worried about covid 19, heck no. Am I monitoring what is happening, so that I am aware of what others are doing around me. Yep! Is it affecting the economic situation of the US in a negative way. Yep! Watching that too. Not worried about it either. As far as how long this will last??? None of us know the extent of it, none of us know the end. That uncertainty is what creates the fear and speculation present in parts of the world today. I think open discussion can be informative and educational. They can remove a lot of uncertainty.

I think the world economies are being affected by the virus. Whether the threat is real or not. Oil is a raw product. Raw products are typically first indicators of lower production. Lower production typically leads to weakening economies. The US economy doesn't stay within US borders any more than immigrants outside of those borders. Essentially our economy is tied in some way to the world economy. You know that when you're selling coons. We depend on those foreigners to buy our furs and we depend on them to make the stuff we want to buy. If they aren't buying, and they aren't selling us stuff they make, we ain't doing so swell. It's not the end of the world. I think we have a different view as to how this could play out, and the effects. I'm open to different perspectives from others out there. I don't think I really know what is going on. I'm trying to get a better understanding, and I'm sharing the info I come across and the thoughts I have on the topic. I enjoy reading those of others, even when I disagree.

Few things keep more money in the pocket of many working people than cheaper gas prices-especially we who live way out in the boonies.

I am bringing this post back to the top. Some of the prognosticators, me included, may want to review and update their forecasts. We are seeing how quickly and easily a global pandemic can derail economic activity. Anyone, besides me, already nostalgic for the fuel prices and economic activity of just a few short months ago?

I saw gas in Michigan this week for $1.71 and $1.75. Cheapest I have seen in many years. Around here it's right at $2.00.

Well either way, I would rather pay $2 a gallon during times like these than $5 a gallon.

It has been a long time since gasoline was $5 per gallon. With the exception of Alaska, I would guess at least 2008 or 2009. We probably haven't seen the worst of these "times" yet.

It has been awhile since high gas prices. I remember it like it was yesterday tho. I burned a $100 bill to fill my pickup and boat (boat only had a 6 gallon tank). That almost ruined a good day fishing. I thought about that all day and how crazy expensive that was. I hope those times dont come around again.

One thing for sure. No one is coming out of this unscathed. We will all take a hit. The hard working people will come out of this fine but we will have to work hard. This will be a test for the 20yr old to 40yr olds. The never had to do without. Be told what to do and when. Not like the great generation or the boomers. Stay tuned

Big oil companies will find a way pretty soon to cause a shortage, like burning down some refineries or causing some oil crisis. I will say I would rather pay more a little more gas so people can stay working and to help the economy. I also know these filthy rich oil companies will rob their own mother to get richer and get more power, they have no problem sticking to the public and creating problems to benefit them.

so is buying oil the place to go with your money if you want to invest in the stock market?

There is so much oil in the world that burning a refinery is only going to have a local impact...if that.

I would much rather see oil back in the 50-60 dollar range.

We are going to see massive debt defaults and bankruptcies of the weaker producers> Even Exxon just had their debt downgraded on the basis of weak cash flow and operating weakness. The stock has dropped nearly 53% this year.

Just think of the cash crunch some of the smaller operators are in.

The oil industry....at these prices ...could easily suffer a job loss of 500,000 jobs . That includes secondary and tertiary level related employment. The debt defaults will adversely impact regional banks, housing markets, materials manufacturers and suppliers.

The price of oil could go to 10 cents a barrel and it won't do me any good. Our price is pretty much set in stone at about $7.60 per gallon. It might go UP next June.
But the real risk here for all of us is the 2020 election, the supreme court, gun rights, capitalism, and liberty.

We better all hope that OPEC and Russia can get their heads wired together