As of this evening, the state is shutting down all restaurants and such so went in to have coffee one last time with the local brain trust. Everyone thinks it's blown way out of wack.
I would assume that by now, most folks would understand the nature of the virus problem, but scout's comment above suggests maybe they don't. A person can be infected and spewing virus for as much as a week or longer before they ever develop any symptoms at all. There is no way of looking at them and knowing.....until way after it's too late. No worries cause nobody in the area has turned up positive? Think again.
So.......assuming the local brain trust consisted of about 8 guys. Also assume one of them....only one......has a kid or close relative that about a week ago went out to dinner someplace and they sat next to somebody that just got back from Italy. That person was infected. They didn't know it......had no symptoms.....but were spewing virus all over the place. They infected the relative who in tern infected the brain trust guy. He may have infected you......and you are now spewing virus and infecting everyone you know. Wife, kids, co-workers and they are doing the same with everyone they come into contact with. And none of you know anything about it until it's too late. That is the nature of how the whole thing spreads. Silently......and geometrically. A reasonable assumption is that at some point in time, each and every one of us will be exposed to this. Not if, only when.
Big deal or not? As near as the "experts" can tell, about 60% of those that are exposed ever show any symptoms at all. Of those that do, maybe something like 85% of them have mild symptoms that are no big deal. But that leaves 15% who do.....bad enough they need to be treated with O2, etc., and of the 60%, about 1% of those have died. Now multiply that X 325,000,000 people in the US and if nothing is done to stem the tide, you could wind up with about 15,000,000 people in the US depending on acute medical care or risk dying..........and maybe 1 to 2 million will die. Problem is the entire US only has about 1,000,000 hospital beds to care for those that could wind up needing it........not even 10% of what could be needed.......or health care workers to care for them. So that 1,000,000 deaths could soar to way more than that for lack of treatment. That is exactly what they having to do in Italy. Decide who had a chance of making it and working with them.
So the reason for closing borders, isolating and pulling apart.......staying at home......is not to ride out the storm. Likely as not YOU CAN"T. Best hope for now is slow the rate of expansion so the wave is not a sharp spike that overwhelms the system, but rather a low, long running wave that can be absorbed over time. They are desperately trying to buy some time. All the closings......restaurants, bars, schools, work places, etc. is being used to separate and isolate people to buy some time.
So going out to meet with guys for coffee is the absolute very last thing a guy ought to be doing.........unless you want to be one of the one's looking for help when none exists. The smart thing to do is hole up at home and avoid contact with anyone........and hope it's not already too late.
And keep in mind, this is all based on what is known or thought as of now. All of this is in a state of flux. Fine tuning how many, how severe, etc, but due to an abundance of caution, they are going with worst case scenario and hoping it doesn't happen. If the wave never comes, then somebody somewhere is going to have a whole lot of explaining to do. If it all falls flat, things will rebound in a hurry.
Second part is as soon as somebody gets sick, then gets well, belief is they can go back to work....and life goes back to normal. So whole goal is to "flatten the curve".
