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Oil prices could fall to 0 #6807114
03/18/20 01:38 PM
03/18/20 01:38 PM
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,030
NY
Canvasback2 Offline OP
trapper
Canvasback2  Offline OP
trapper

Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,030
NY
Oil prices could fall below zero: Analyst
Jonathan Garber
Fox BusinessMarch 18, 2020, 11:24 AM EDT






Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, fell by more than 10 percent Wednesday to near $24 a barrel, a level last seen in April 2002.
“Oil prices can go negative,” wrote Paul Sankey, managing director at Mizuho Securities.

CORONAVIRUS CHOKEHOLD ON US WORSENS OIL INDUSTRY'S PAIN

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the U.S. and global economy to a standstill by prompting “shelter in place” orders, social distancing between people and the cancellation of non-essential travel. The sharp slowdown in economic activity has curtailed the need for oil.
If that weren't enough, Saudi Arabia recently slashed oil prices and raised output after Russia refused to join OPEC in deepening production cuts.
Oil is a 100 million barrel-per-day market, but Sankey says it’s possible that the economic fallout from the pandemic could zap demand, creating a 20 million barrel-per-day surplus.
He says the “physical reality” of the market is that oil is pumped out of the ground and has to be consumed or stored. When the cost of storage goes high enough -- or space runs out -- companies might pay customers to take it.
For now, President Trump has ordered the Department of Energy to take advantage of low prices by stepping into the market and buying oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The reserve can build at 2 million barrels per day, meaning that it has four months until it’s at capacity, Sankey said.
By then, he added, high-cost oil from the Bakken shale formation in the U.S. or bitumen from the Canadian oil sands, "prices negatively because it exceeds needs" and requires storage, Sankey wrote. “Negative prices are simply a higher cost of storage than market.”
Sankey isn’t the only one on Wall Street who is sounding the alarm about the coming flood of oil.
Excess supply from OPEC and Russia, coupled with crumbling demand "are leading to concerns about a surplus that could overwhelm global storage,” wrote Francisco Blanch, a commodity strategist at Bank of America.
He warns the demand destruction caused by COVID-19 and the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia could cause inventories to swell by 900 million barrels in the second quarter alone. He estimates the world currently has about 1.5 billion barrels of available storage.
Blanch’s worst-case scenario isn’t as dire as Sankey’s.
“In a severe scenario, if the market struggles to find a home for surplus barrels, then oil prices might have to trade down into the teens,” he wrote.

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807121
03/18/20 01:46 PM
03/18/20 01:46 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,553
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,553
McGrath, AK
Might want to look at buying stock in tankers..


Mean As Nails
Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807129
03/18/20 01:54 PM
03/18/20 01:54 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,618
MN, Land of 10,000 Lakes
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Trapper7 Offline
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Trapper7  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,618
MN, Land of 10,000 Lakes
You mean oil prices so low, they'd have to PAY you to take it???? laugh


Alcohol, Tobacco, & Firearms should be a convenience store, not a government agency.
Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807130
03/18/20 01:57 PM
03/18/20 01:57 PM
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 3,336
Edgewood, Iowa
M
MINK I LOVE Offline
trapper
MINK I LOVE  Offline
trapper
M

Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 3,336
Edgewood, Iowa
Things are getting Crazy! I like Trapper7's idea.

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807132
03/18/20 01:57 PM
03/18/20 01:57 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,553
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,553
McGrath, AK
That is already the case with natural gas producers in some areas. The price of gas is lower than the cost of production so the gas is flared off at the well head. Some companies are PAYING to have it pipelined away.


Mean As Nails
Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807228
03/18/20 03:16 PM
03/18/20 03:16 PM
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 26,357
james bay frontierOnt.
B
Boco Offline
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Boco  Offline
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B

Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 26,357
james bay frontierOnt.
They can pay me to store several 45 gallon drums of gas if they want.I think I could find room to store a few drums.

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: white17] #6807427
03/18/20 05:55 PM
03/18/20 05:55 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 727
Texas Hill Country
C
Cedar Hacker Offline
trapper
Cedar Hacker  Offline
trapper
C

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 727
Texas Hill Country
Originally Posted by white17
That is already the case with natural gas producers in some areas. The price of gas is lower than the cost of production so the gas is flared off at the well head. Some companies are PAYING to have it pipelined away.


It happened at the Waha Hub in West Texas last year.
There was too much gas being produced and not enough pipeline capacity to transport it out.
Producers shut in natural gas wells and if oil producers with gas did not flare the gas at the wellhead and sent it down the line to Waha it was flared there and a $6 per mcf was charged the producer for flaring their gas.

We still cannot get all the gas to market and what is being sold is dirt cheap, but some of the small producers have to have some kind of cash flow.


Nature is my religion, the earth is my Church
Gun control is using both hands

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807498
03/18/20 06:50 PM
03/18/20 06:50 PM
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 2,439
rogers city mi.
J
jeff karsten Offline
trapper
jeff karsten  Offline
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J

Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 2,439
rogers city mi.
i'm paying 1.49 for propane and 2.15 for gas must be the cost of production in michigan


olden tyred
Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807579
03/18/20 07:38 PM
03/18/20 07:38 PM
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 310
mo.
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nate Offline
trapper
nate  Offline
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N

Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 310
mo.
Maybe they'll cut the ethonal. Good deal if they do.

Last edited by nate; 03/18/20 07:38 PM.
Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807602
03/18/20 07:51 PM
03/18/20 07:51 PM
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,010
North central Iowa
B
Bob_Iowa Offline
trapper
Bob_Iowa  Offline
trapper
B

Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,010
North central Iowa
Cutting ethanol is a double edge sword, if you take ethanol out the grain market becomes even more overwhelmed and grain prices fall putting more pressure on the ag sector which in case of midwestern states isn’t a good deal. But for people in town it creates cheap food the probelm is there may not many farmers left to produce it.

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807616
03/18/20 07:55 PM
03/18/20 07:55 PM
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 7,179
Greene County,Virginia
R
run Offline
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run  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 7,179
Greene County,Virginia
WTI is $26.95 currently.

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Trapper7] #6807665
03/18/20 08:27 PM
03/18/20 08:27 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1,041
Golconda, IL
nramemb Offline
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nramemb  Offline
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1,041
Golconda, IL
Originally Posted by Trapper7
You mean oil prices so low, they'd have to PAY you to take it???? laugh


I will take 10,000,000 barrels

Friday is a good delivery day for me

Last edited by nramemb; 03/18/20 08:29 PM.
Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807754
03/18/20 09:36 PM
03/18/20 09:36 PM
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 548
North Pole ak
T
Team V Offline
trapper
Team V  Offline
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T

Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 548
North Pole ak
My son works on north slope of ALaska in the oil fields was told about a hr ago to pack up everyone is going home .

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807761
03/18/20 09:40 PM
03/18/20 09:40 PM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 5,643
The Hill Country of Texas
Leftlane Online content
trapper
Leftlane  Online Content
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 5,643
The Hill Country of Texas
Its a good thing I'm cruising on fumes or I'd be buying a crap load of oil futures.
If covid 19 had the ability to cut our population in half, the day we run out of oil would be extended 50 yrs or more. It does NOT and the price of oil will not stay down long.

And yes, as a good ol boy in Texas I have inside information


Originally Posted by WI Sen T Carpenter
all I did was stop and take a picture, and the next thing I’m getting 5-6 punches, getting kicked in the head!

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Team V] #6807765
03/18/20 09:41 PM
03/18/20 09:41 PM
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 1,017
alaska
3
3 Fingers Offline
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3 Fingers  Offline
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3

Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 1,017
alaska
Originally Posted by Team V
My son works on north slope of ALaska in the oil fields was told about a hr ago to pack up everyone is going home .

Heard that. Shared services (ConocoPhillips and BP) no more flights after 5 tonight.

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: 3 Fingers] #6807800
03/18/20 10:05 PM
03/18/20 10:05 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,553
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,553
McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by 3 Fingers
Originally Posted by Team V
My son works on north slope of ALaska in the oil fields was told about a hr ago to pack up everyone is going home .

Heard that. Shared services (ConocoPhillips and BP) no more flights after 5 tonight.


That is amazing !!


Mean As Nails
Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807825
03/18/20 10:23 PM
03/18/20 10:23 PM
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,083
Central Texas
C
Chancey Offline
trapper
Chancey  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,083
Central Texas
My brother has been welding for Marathon Oil for years. He survived the 2014-2015 hiccup while the company let everyone else go.
He told me Monday that he had work lined out for 50 hours/week through August, but that Marathon told them that was gone and this ride was gonna be a lot worse than the last one.
He was seriously concerned for his job.

I've been in south Texas working, and hotels are empty compared booming one month ago.

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807836
03/18/20 10:28 PM
03/18/20 10:28 PM
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,083
Central Texas
C
Chancey Offline
trapper
Chancey  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,083
Central Texas
I know we like gas prices to be <$2.00/per gallon, but the reality is that most of us can live with paying around 2.25-2.50/gallon. That's where it is when oil prices are around $50-60/barrel.

Keeps everyone working and life is better. Does not matter how low gas goes if you don't have a job to buy it.

Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807968
03/19/20 12:37 AM
03/19/20 12:37 AM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,553
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,553
McGrath, AK
Oil will jump on Thursday


Mean As Nails
Re: Oil prices could fall to 0 [Re: Canvasback2] #6807970
03/19/20 12:42 AM
03/19/20 12:42 AM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 221
Atlin, British Columbia Canada
C
cat catcher Offline
trapper
cat catcher  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 221
Atlin, British Columbia Canada
Why do you think that White17?

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