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Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811232
03/21/20 11:56 AM
03/21/20 11:56 AM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 3,916
Pa
A
Art S Offline
trapper
Art S  Offline
trapper
A

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 3,916
Pa
Right out of the communist manifesto .

Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811233
03/21/20 11:56 AM
03/21/20 11:56 AM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 21,029
North East Kansas
Marty Offline
trapper
Marty  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 21,029
North East Kansas
I do not know what to say to someone who thinks older folks having a mass die off is a good thing.... sick


E
'Honey Badger Militia'
Sleep, the anti woke adote.
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811236
03/21/20 12:05 PM
03/21/20 12:05 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,274
Lakeland,Minnesota
B
Bogmaster Offline
trapper
Bogmaster  Offline
trapper
B

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,274
Lakeland,Minnesota
Marty,I know what to say---but I would be banned for life if I did.
Tom


If my feet aren't wet,I must not be trapping.
Tom Olson
MTA life member#100,also WTA life member
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: Muskrat] #6811237
03/21/20 12:05 PM
03/21/20 12:05 PM
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 6,523
Wi.
D
Diggerman Offline
trapper
Diggerman  Offline
trapper
D

Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 6,523
Wi.
Originally Posted by Muskrat

Wow, you watch cnn, never woulda thought. (insert sarcasm font)

Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: amspoker] #6811301
03/21/20 12:40 PM
03/21/20 12:40 PM
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 68
Minnesota
S
scotts Offline
trapper
scotts  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 68
Minnesota
Originally Posted by amspoker
Italy reported it surpassed China in total deaths from the virus yesterday.

Then 627 died reported for today.

That puts them at over 4,000 total.

They are escalating much faster than China did. If you can believe China.

[Linked Image]


To stay on the topic of this thread, this graph needs a closer look.

At first glance, the differences in the curves look like one of three things is happening: 1. China is lying about the true numbers. 2. The virus has mutated into something more lethal. 3. There are differences in Asian and European genetics that make this virus more severe to different genomes.

One very important factor that this graph does not show is age. The medical community is very certain age is a huge factor with covid. While any of the three things listed above are certainly possible, age must be considered to give context.

The median age of Italy is the highest in Europe at 45.4 years. China's median age is 38.5 years. (us median age 37.9, south korea 41.2, Japan 47.3)
The average age of the fatalities in Italy is 78.5. I haven't been able to find average age of fatalities for other countries, maybe one of you knows.
Italy reports 99% of fatalities had at least one preexisting conditions. (I don't take this as some huge smoking gun because there is no information on what preexisting conditions they are talking about and I suspect most people have at least one condition they may not even know about)

When age is taken into account, the graph is interpreted a little differently.

There is more information coming out every day that will modify the numbers above. For instance, there have been cases of 1-15 year old age bracket in the US. Other countries did not see much, if any, of this.

Last edited by scotts; 03/21/20 12:42 PM.
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: Diggerman] #6811302
03/21/20 12:40 PM
03/21/20 12:40 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,457
Wisconsin
Muskrat Offline
trapper
Muskrat  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,457
Wisconsin
Originally Posted by Diggerman
Originally Posted by Muskrat

Wow, you watch cnn, never woulda thought. (insert sarcasm font)


It's a perfect balance . . . Fox on one end, CNN on the other. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, eh?

Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811425
03/21/20 01:54 PM
03/21/20 01:54 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 3,833
KY.usa
rex123 Offline
trapper
rex123  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 3,833
KY.usa
Pike River I find it funny after what you just wrote that in your bio you have family and bible listed as hobbies. So which older members of your family are you hoping die off? And when they do will you go set on the front pew and pray for them?

Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: ] #6811685
03/21/20 06:22 PM
03/21/20 06:22 PM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,678
Virginia
5
52Carl Offline
trapper
52Carl  Offline
trapper
5

Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,678
Virginia
Originally Posted by akroper
Yukon254, you said, "What I dont understand is why we didnt see any of this with H1N1. Am I missing something? There were over 60-million Americans infected with it after all, and over 12,000 died....We are no where near those numbers yet and the whole world is on lockdown and entire industries are going to go broke."

COVID-19 is nothing like H1N1. It is far more contagious and deadly than H1N1. On average, each person infected with COVID-19 will pass it on to 2-2.5 other people. H1N1 patients passed it on to 1.2-1.6 others. The US mortality rate for H1N1 was about .02% The worldwide mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4 %, or about 170 times more deadly than H1N1. At that rate, if 60 million Americans contract COVID-19, there will be over 2 million deaths. That's about 1 out of every 165 people in the US.

I'm not making any of this up. All of these numbers are easily verified with just a bit of research.

No, we're nowhere near those numbers yet, but we will be if we do nothing. Go back and read through this thread. The folks down-playing the threat posed by this virus are wrong. I just hope that none of them end up being dead wrong.

The more drastic measures we take now, the fewer people will die. The key word here is NOW.

There may be one major flaw with comparing the death rates of COVID-19 vs. H1N1.
Many of those infected with COVID-19 do not show any symptoms, or the symptoms are so mild that they don't go in to get checked, and therefor are not counted.
This was not the case with H1N1. Over time, I suspect that this will come out as a factor, and be misrepresented by the Media as a coverup to protect Trump from being impeached again.

Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811699
03/21/20 06:29 PM
03/21/20 06:29 PM
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 3,928
Ohio
S
stinkypete Offline
trapper
stinkypete  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 3,928
Ohio
Pike River. I think we should ignore your comment. Disgraceful to say the least. I will chalk it up to ignorance.

Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811717
03/21/20 06:41 PM
03/21/20 06:41 PM
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 2,291
PA
L
lumberjack391 Offline
trapper
lumberjack391  Offline
trapper
L

Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 2,291
PA
Coonmans analysis is there will be a fur market next fall if I read it right...…..That's it, Im all in.....anyone need a mink trapping partner?

Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: stinkypete] #6811846
03/21/20 08:02 PM
03/21/20 08:02 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 915
Northern Virginia
J
Jarhead620 Offline
trapper
Jarhead620  Offline
trapper
J

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 915
Northern Virginia
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Pike River. I think we should ignore your comment. Disgraceful to say the least. I will chalk it up to ignorance.


X2 I'm old but I'm not useless. Plus my family would love to have me around them for awhile longer.

Jarhead


"Just as the deer herd lives in mortal fear of its wolves, so does a mountain live in mortal fear of its deer." Aldo Leopold
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: ] #6811888
03/21/20 08:26 PM
03/21/20 08:26 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548
Cleveland IL
muddyriverdogz Offline
trapper
muddyriverdogz  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548
Cleveland IL
Originally Posted by akroper
Yukon254, you said, "What I dont understand is why we didnt see any of this with H1N1. Am I missing something? There were over 60-million Americans infected with it after all, and over 12,000 died....We are no where near those numbers yet and the whole world is on lockdown and entire industries are going to go broke."

COVID-19 is nothing like H1N1. It is far more contagious and deadly than H1N1. On average, each person infected with COVID-19 will pass it on to 2-2.5 other people. H1N1 patients passed it on to 1.2-1.6 others. The US mortality rate for H1N1 was about .02% The worldwide mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4 %, or about 170 times more deadly than H1N1. At that rate, if 60 million Americans contract COVID-19, there will be over 2 million deaths. That's about 1 out of every 165 people in the US.

I'm not making any of this up. All of these numbers are easily verified with just a bit of research.

No, we're nowhere near those numbers yet, but we will be if we do nothing. Go back and read through this thread. The folks down-playing the threat posed by this virus are wrong. I just hope that none of them end up being dead wrong.

The more drastic measures we take now, the fewer people will die. The key word here is NOW.


There is no possible way to compare the 2 at this point. H1N1 is a done deal with finalized number's. Corona is just getting started.

The fatality rate for corona is jumping all over the place from 1% to 10%, Probably 3% being close to the truth......The fatility rate for H1N1 we know though. It was 0.02 %...Big difference.

Last edited by muddyriverdogz; 03/21/20 08:28 PM.

You only live once, so get over it!

Tactics may change but the goal remains the same.
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811900
03/21/20 08:33 PM
03/21/20 08:33 PM
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 461
Nebraska
Poorcoon Offline
trapper
Poorcoon  Offline
trapper

Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 461
Nebraska
Right now I'm somewhere in between everybody should be ashamed of what they're taking away from kids in their schooling and what they're doing to business owners and the economy.
. That and we should all Have No Reservations about making sacrifices to protect the weak and elderly
. That being said, I really don't think that The lethality of this virus is as bad as it's played up to be relatively speaking


"Nothing I like to do pays well." True Grit

"Revenge is in the hands of God, not mine." Revenant.
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: muddyriverdogz] #6811902
03/21/20 08:34 PM
03/21/20 08:34 PM
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 461
Nebraska
Poorcoon Offline
trapper
Poorcoon  Offline
trapper

Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 461
Nebraska
Originally Posted by muddyriverdogz
Originally Posted by akroper
Yukon254, you said, "What I dont understand is why we didnt see any of this with H1N1. Am I missing something? There were over 60-million Americans infected with it after all, and over 12,000 died....We are no where near those numbers yet and the whole world is on lockdown and entire industries are going to go broke."

COVID-19 is nothing like H1N1. It is far more contagious and deadly than H1N1. On average, each person infected with COVID-19 will pass it on to 2-2.5 other people. H1N1 patients passed it on to 1.2-1.6 others. The US mortality rate for H1N1 was about .02% The worldwide mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4 %, or about 170 times more deadly than H1N1. At that rate, if 60 million Americans contract COVID-19, there will be over 2 million deaths. That's about 1 out of every 165 people in the US.

I'm not making any of this up. All of these numbers are easily verified with just a bit of research.

No, we're nowhere near those numbers yet, but we will be if we do nothing. Go back and read through this thread. The folks down-playing the threat posed by this virus are wrong. I just hope that none of them end up being dead wrong.

The more drastic measures we take now, the fewer people will die. The key word here is NOW.


There is no possible way to compare the 2 at this point. H1N1 is a done deal with finalized number's. Corona is just getting started.

The fatality rate for corona is jumping all over the place from 1% to 10%, Probably 3% being close to the truth......The fatility rate for H1N1 we know though. It was 0.02 %...Big difference.

South Korea is less than 1% fatality and they're not shutting anything down. Keep in mind. They are not testing probably half of the people that actually have the virus

Last edited by Poorcoon; 03/21/20 08:36 PM.

"Nothing I like to do pays well." True Grit

"Revenge is in the hands of God, not mine." Revenant.
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811905
03/21/20 08:36 PM
03/21/20 08:36 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,347
New Mexico
C
Chamacat Offline
trapper
Chamacat  Offline
trapper
C

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,347
New Mexico
Yep..Did the H1N1 require ventalators (SP)...


I can catch them here...I can catch them ANYWHERE
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: Chamacat] #6811911
03/21/20 08:41 PM
03/21/20 08:41 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548
Cleveland IL
muddyriverdogz Offline
trapper
muddyriverdogz  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548
Cleveland IL
Originally Posted by Chamacat
Yep..Did the H1N1 require ventalators (SP)...


Another good point. H1N1 didn't overload the healthcare system.


You only live once, so get over it!

Tactics may change but the goal remains the same.
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811919
03/21/20 08:49 PM
03/21/20 08:49 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548
Cleveland IL
muddyriverdogz Offline
trapper
muddyriverdogz  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548
Cleveland IL
Poorcoon........Aaccording to data from Johns Hopkins University, global cases surpassed 300,000 with 12,755 deaths and 91,540 people recovered.

Sense we can only go off of recovered vs deaths because we don't know what the oucome will be for the rest that's around a 14% fatality rate.

What ever the real number ends up being i am sure it is going to be much higher than H1N1 when this is over.


This is a good link https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Last edited by muddyriverdogz; 03/21/20 08:53 PM.

You only live once, so get over it!

Tactics may change but the goal remains the same.
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: muddyriverdogz] #6811921
03/21/20 08:53 PM
03/21/20 08:53 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,333
East-Central Wisconsin
B
bblwi Offline
trapper
bblwi  Offline
trapper
B

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,333
East-Central Wisconsin
Let's hope that the R & D and testing at Stanford and other places finds some real value in the malaria drugs in minimizing deaths in our seriously ill virus patients. If we know we can greatly lower severity or death then that will mean we can get back to some more normal sooner. The drug will not prevent infection but maybe lower the mortality rates. This then would become more of a potent flu event then what it is today. We probably won't achieve in real release from tensions until we have vaccines that work. When they arrive it will be interesting to see how they are marketed and what price.
Meanwhile we are in the escalation phase and darker days are ahead health wise and financially as well. There will be discussion regarding who was right, wrong etc. for years to come after this. Some keep saying that once this is past we will all just go back to being what we always have been and I don't see it that way. Many millions of Americans will make some minor to major changes in lifestyles as an outcome from this. If we are going to live in full to semi forms of isolation for weeks and months many will develop different habits long enough to become their newer norms. I know we are really reviewing our lifestyle and we can find many far lower cost ways to enjoy life then we have in the past and if market recovery takes years that may be a good thing. Many talk about the loss of wealth in retirement funds as something that is bad but passive. If you are say part of the 60 million Americans that use retirement funds for living expenses just imagine the lowered liquidity that is now current.

Bryce

Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: jbyrd63] #6811931
03/21/20 09:02 PM
03/21/20 09:02 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548
Cleveland IL
muddyriverdogz Offline
trapper
muddyriverdogz  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548
Cleveland IL
There is more happening than just this virus. The economic system is collapsing. I would say your dead right about one thing, darker day's are coming.

Last edited by muddyriverdogz; 03/21/20 09:02 PM.

You only live once, so get over it!

Tactics may change but the goal remains the same.
Re: Corona mess over hyped [Re: muddyriverdogz] #6811934
03/21/20 09:06 PM
03/21/20 09:06 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 915
Northern Virginia
J
Jarhead620 Offline
trapper
Jarhead620  Offline
trapper
J

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 915
Northern Virginia
The provided numbers don't add up but if we are basing it on 300000 cases then the mortality rate is 4.3%

Jarhead


"Just as the deer herd lives in mortal fear of its wolves, so does a mountain live in mortal fear of its deer." Aldo Leopold
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