Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: jbyrd63]
#6811236
03/21/20 12:05 PM
03/21/20 12:05 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,278 Lakeland,Minnesota
Bogmaster
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Marty,I know what to say---but I would be banned for life if I did. Tom
If my feet aren't wet,I must not be trapping. Tom Olson MTA life member#100,also WTA life member
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: amspoker]
#6811301
03/21/20 12:40 PM
03/21/20 12:40 PM
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Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 69 Minnesota
scotts
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Italy reported it surpassed China in total deaths from the virus yesterday. Then 627 died reported for today. That puts them at over 4,000 total. They are escalating much faster than China did. If you can believe China. To stay on the topic of this thread, this graph needs a closer look. At first glance, the differences in the curves look like one of three things is happening: 1. China is lying about the true numbers. 2. The virus has mutated into something more lethal. 3. There are differences in Asian and European genetics that make this virus more severe to different genomes. One very important factor that this graph does not show is age. The medical community is very certain age is a huge factor with covid. While any of the three things listed above are certainly possible, age must be considered to give context. The median age of Italy is the highest in Europe at 45.4 years. China's median age is 38.5 years. (us median age 37.9, south korea 41.2, Japan 47.3) The average age of the fatalities in Italy is 78.5. I haven't been able to find average age of fatalities for other countries, maybe one of you knows. Italy reports 99% of fatalities had at least one preexisting conditions. (I don't take this as some huge smoking gun because there is no information on what preexisting conditions they are talking about and I suspect most people have at least one condition they may not even know about) When age is taken into account, the graph is interpreted a little differently. There is more information coming out every day that will modify the numbers above. For instance, there have been cases of 1-15 year old age bracket in the US. Other countries did not see much, if any, of this.
Last edited by scotts; 03/21/20 12:42 PM.
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: Diggerman]
#6811302
03/21/20 12:40 PM
03/21/20 12:40 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 5,474 Wisconsin
Muskrat
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Wow, you watch cnn, never woulda thought. (insert sarcasm font) It's a perfect balance . . . Fox on one end, CNN on the other. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, eh?
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: ]
#6811685
03/21/20 06:22 PM
03/21/20 06:22 PM
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Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,702 Virginia
52Carl
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Yukon254, you said, "What I dont understand is why we didnt see any of this with H1N1. Am I missing something? There were over 60-million Americans infected with it after all, and over 12,000 died....We are no where near those numbers yet and the whole world is on lockdown and entire industries are going to go broke."
COVID-19 is nothing like H1N1. It is far more contagious and deadly than H1N1. On average, each person infected with COVID-19 will pass it on to 2-2.5 other people. H1N1 patients passed it on to 1.2-1.6 others. The US mortality rate for H1N1 was about .02% The worldwide mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4 %, or about 170 times more deadly than H1N1. At that rate, if 60 million Americans contract COVID-19, there will be over 2 million deaths. That's about 1 out of every 165 people in the US.
I'm not making any of this up. All of these numbers are easily verified with just a bit of research.
No, we're nowhere near those numbers yet, but we will be if we do nothing. Go back and read through this thread. The folks down-playing the threat posed by this virus are wrong. I just hope that none of them end up being dead wrong.
The more drastic measures we take now, the fewer people will die. The key word here is NOW. There may be one major flaw with comparing the death rates of COVID-19 vs. H1N1. Many of those infected with COVID-19 do not show any symptoms, or the symptoms are so mild that they don't go in to get checked, and therefor are not counted. This was not the case with H1N1. Over time, I suspect that this will come out as a factor, and be misrepresented by the Media as a coverup to protect Trump from being impeached again.
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: stinkypete]
#6811846
03/21/20 08:02 PM
03/21/20 08:02 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 915 Northern Virginia
Jarhead620
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Pike River. I think we should ignore your comment. Disgraceful to say the least. I will chalk it up to ignorance. X2 I'm old but I'm not useless. Plus my family would love to have me around them for awhile longer. Jarhead
"Just as the deer herd lives in mortal fear of its wolves, so does a mountain live in mortal fear of its deer." Aldo Leopold
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: ]
#6811888
03/21/20 08:26 PM
03/21/20 08:26 PM
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548 Cleveland IL
muddyriverdogz
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Yukon254, you said, "What I dont understand is why we didnt see any of this with H1N1. Am I missing something? There were over 60-million Americans infected with it after all, and over 12,000 died....We are no where near those numbers yet and the whole world is on lockdown and entire industries are going to go broke."
COVID-19 is nothing like H1N1. It is far more contagious and deadly than H1N1. On average, each person infected with COVID-19 will pass it on to 2-2.5 other people. H1N1 patients passed it on to 1.2-1.6 others. The US mortality rate for H1N1 was about .02% The worldwide mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4 %, or about 170 times more deadly than H1N1. At that rate, if 60 million Americans contract COVID-19, there will be over 2 million deaths. That's about 1 out of every 165 people in the US.
I'm not making any of this up. All of these numbers are easily verified with just a bit of research.
No, we're nowhere near those numbers yet, but we will be if we do nothing. Go back and read through this thread. The folks down-playing the threat posed by this virus are wrong. I just hope that none of them end up being dead wrong.
The more drastic measures we take now, the fewer people will die. The key word here is NOW. There is no possible way to compare the 2 at this point. H1N1 is a done deal with finalized number's. Corona is just getting started. The fatality rate for corona is jumping all over the place from 1% to 10%, Probably 3% being close to the truth......The fatility rate for H1N1 we know though. It was 0.02 %...Big difference.
Last edited by muddyriverdogz; 03/21/20 08:28 PM.
You only live once, so get over it!
Tactics may change but the goal remains the same.
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: jbyrd63]
#6811900
03/21/20 08:33 PM
03/21/20 08:33 PM
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Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 461 Nebraska
Poorcoon
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Posts: 461
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Right now I'm somewhere in between everybody should be ashamed of what they're taking away from kids in their schooling and what they're doing to business owners and the economy. . That and we should all Have No Reservations about making sacrifices to protect the weak and elderly . That being said, I really don't think that The lethality of this virus is as bad as it's played up to be relatively speaking
"Nothing I like to do pays well." True Grit
"Revenge is in the hands of God, not mine." Revenant.
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: muddyriverdogz]
#6811902
03/21/20 08:34 PM
03/21/20 08:34 PM
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Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 461 Nebraska
Poorcoon
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Yukon254, you said, "What I dont understand is why we didnt see any of this with H1N1. Am I missing something? There were over 60-million Americans infected with it after all, and over 12,000 died....We are no where near those numbers yet and the whole world is on lockdown and entire industries are going to go broke."
COVID-19 is nothing like H1N1. It is far more contagious and deadly than H1N1. On average, each person infected with COVID-19 will pass it on to 2-2.5 other people. H1N1 patients passed it on to 1.2-1.6 others. The US mortality rate for H1N1 was about .02% The worldwide mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4 %, or about 170 times more deadly than H1N1. At that rate, if 60 million Americans contract COVID-19, there will be over 2 million deaths. That's about 1 out of every 165 people in the US.
I'm not making any of this up. All of these numbers are easily verified with just a bit of research.
No, we're nowhere near those numbers yet, but we will be if we do nothing. Go back and read through this thread. The folks down-playing the threat posed by this virus are wrong. I just hope that none of them end up being dead wrong.
The more drastic measures we take now, the fewer people will die. The key word here is NOW. There is no possible way to compare the 2 at this point. H1N1 is a done deal with finalized number's. Corona is just getting started. The fatality rate for corona is jumping all over the place from 1% to 10%, Probably 3% being close to the truth......The fatility rate for H1N1 we know though. It was 0.02 %...Big difference. South Korea is less than 1% fatality and they're not shutting anything down. Keep in mind. They are not testing probably half of the people that actually have the virus
Last edited by Poorcoon; 03/21/20 08:36 PM.
"Nothing I like to do pays well." True Grit
"Revenge is in the hands of God, not mine." Revenant.
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: jbyrd63]
#6811905
03/21/20 08:36 PM
03/21/20 08:36 PM
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,347 New Mexico
Chamacat
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Yep..Did the H1N1 require ventalators (SP)...
I can catch them here...I can catch them ANYWHERE
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: Chamacat]
#6811911
03/21/20 08:41 PM
03/21/20 08:41 PM
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548 Cleveland IL
muddyriverdogz
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Yep..Did the H1N1 require ventalators (SP)... Another good point. H1N1 didn't overload the healthcare system.
You only live once, so get over it!
Tactics may change but the goal remains the same.
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: jbyrd63]
#6811919
03/21/20 08:49 PM
03/21/20 08:49 PM
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548 Cleveland IL
muddyriverdogz
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Poorcoon........Aaccording to data from Johns Hopkins University, global cases surpassed 300,000 with 12,755 deaths and 91,540 people recovered. Sense we can only go off of recovered vs deaths because we don't know what the oucome will be for the rest that's around a 14% fatality rate. What ever the real number ends up being i am sure it is going to be much higher than H1N1 when this is over. This is a good link https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Last edited by muddyriverdogz; 03/21/20 08:53 PM.
You only live once, so get over it!
Tactics may change but the goal remains the same.
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: jbyrd63]
#6811931
03/21/20 09:02 PM
03/21/20 09:02 PM
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,548 Cleveland IL
muddyriverdogz
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There is more happening than just this virus. The economic system is collapsing. I would say your dead right about one thing, darker day's are coming.
Last edited by muddyriverdogz; 03/21/20 09:02 PM.
You only live once, so get over it!
Tactics may change but the goal remains the same.
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Re: Corona mess over hyped
[Re: muddyriverdogz]
#6811934
03/21/20 09:06 PM
03/21/20 09:06 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 915 Northern Virginia
Jarhead620
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The provided numbers don't add up but if we are basing it on 300000 cases then the mortality rate is 4.3%
Jarhead
"Just as the deer herd lives in mortal fear of its wolves, so does a mountain live in mortal fear of its deer." Aldo Leopold
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