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Exponential growth...
#6840621
04/13/20 09:34 AM
04/13/20 09:34 AM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,084
MO
cfowler
OP
trapper
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OP
trapper
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,084
MO
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So far I’m hearing the term tossed around, but I’m really only seeing it in national debt and unemployment. I expect the next area we’ll be seeing it is in the auto and home loan defaults. When things do get back to operating, there will likely be fewer good paying jobs able to support the previous lifestyles many Americans were living. I personally believe we were heading into this situation without a covid-19. The virus is the scapegoat.
I trap for fun. I skin 'em for the money!
Grinners For Life-Lifetime Member, MO Chapter, Den #1
~You Grin, You're In~
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Re: Exponential growth...
[Re: cfowler]
#6840661
04/13/20 09:59 AM
04/13/20 09:59 AM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,337
The Hill Country of Texas
Leftlane
"HOSS"
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"HOSS"
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,337
The Hill Country of Texas
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I personally believe we were heading into this situation without a covid-19. The virus is the scapegoat.
“What’s good for me may not be good for the weak minded.”
Captain Gus McCrae- Texas Rangers
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Re: Exponential growth...
[Re: cfowler]
#6840691
04/13/20 10:25 AM
04/13/20 10:25 AM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,084
MO
cfowler
OP
trapper
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OP
trapper
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,084
MO
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The Fed repo injections started back in September. That wasn’t due to a strong economy. Production in China was already experiencing a slowdown in production before the new year. Around October there was about 7 million auto loans that were severely delinquent (90 days or more). New auto sales were in the toilet before CV-19. Credit was being extended whether requested or not. My personal credit line was extended twice in the 6 months before the virus, and I never sought additional credit, and had never used the amount I had before I got even more. LOTS of CEO’s bailed with their golden parachutes shortly before any official announcement about a virus. There were hundreds, if not thousands, of businesses shutting down throughout the US, before the virus. Trump openly stated his desire for more QE and a devaluing of the US dollar before the virus. None of these things pointed to a strong economy, they seem to indicate that there are problems. Real estate in the NE and in CA was dropping. We have had investors like Buffet sitting on the sideline with 100’s of millions waiting for the next big buy opportunity, and openly stating that. There’s a few of the reasons.
I trap for fun. I skin 'em for the money!
Grinners For Life-Lifetime Member, MO Chapter, Den #1
~You Grin, You're In~
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Re: Exponential growth...
[Re: SNIPERBBB]
#6840698
04/13/20 10:33 AM
04/13/20 10:33 AM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,084
MO
cfowler
OP
trapper
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OP
trapper
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,084
MO
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The timing would of been different had the covid issue not happened. I’m not disagreeing. I think the virus probably sped up the process and added greatly to the situation. I think the virus is being exploited though. Being done every day by politicians, why wouldn’t investors also exploit it? Especially if some investors are politicians.
I trap for fun. I skin 'em for the money!
Grinners For Life-Lifetime Member, MO Chapter, Den #1
~You Grin, You're In~
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Re: Exponential growth...
[Re: cfowler]
#6840702
04/13/20 10:37 AM
04/13/20 10:37 AM
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Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 5,214
Crivitz WI
Sprung & Rusty
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 5,214
Crivitz WI
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So far I’m hearing the term tossed around, but I’m really only seeing it in national debt and unemployment. I expect the next area we’ll be seeing it is in the auto and home loan defaults. When things do get back to operating, there will likely be fewer good paying jobs able to support the previous lifestyles many Americans were living. I personally believe we were heading into this situation without a covid-19. The virus is the scapegoat. It's all by design.
No Jab.
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Re: Exponential growth...
[Re: tjm]
#6840818
04/13/20 11:28 AM
04/13/20 11:28 AM
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Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,112
7mtns of CENTRAL PA
GROUSEWIT
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,112
7mtns of CENTRAL PA
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whoa, are youins suggesting politicians might be crooks? Investors take advantage of a catastrophe ??? "Never let a good crisis go to waste!!!" Where did u hear this before?
NRALIFER,PRPA LIFER,HUNTER,FURTAKER
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Re: Exponential growth...
[Re: cfowler]
#6840845
04/13/20 11:54 AM
04/13/20 11:54 AM
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,175
McGrath, AK
white17
"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,175
McGrath, AK
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The Fed repo injections started back in September. That wasn’t due to a strong economy. Production in China was already experiencing a slowdown in production before the new year. Around October there was about 7 million auto loans that were severely delinquent (90 days or more). New auto sales were in the toilet before CV-19. Credit was being extended whether requested or not. My personal credit line was extended twice in the 6 months before the virus, and I never sought additional credit, and had never used the amount I had before I got even more. LOTS of CEO’s bailed with their golden parachutes shortly before any official announcement about a virus. There were hundreds, if not thousands, of businesses shutting down throughout the US, before the virus. Trump openly stated his desire for more QE and a devaluing of the US dollar before the virus. None of these things pointed to a strong economy, they seem to indicate that there are problems. Real estate in the NE and in CA was dropping. We have had investors like Buffet sitting on the sideline with 100’s of millions waiting for the next big buy opportunity, and openly stating that. There’s a few of the reasons. The September repo injections, I believe, were a consequence of really lousy timing. September 15 quarterly corporate taxes due. September 16 New US Treasury issues hit the market Fed essentially raises rates by trying to wind down QE. The result was a huge lack of liquidity that jacked up overnight rates to 10% in the repo market.
Mean As Nails
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Re: Exponential growth...
[Re: white17]
#6840862
04/13/20 12:18 PM
04/13/20 12:18 PM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,084
MO
cfowler
OP
trapper
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OP
trapper
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,084
MO
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Who wouldn't take advantage of it if they could ? Anyone paying attention would try to better position themselves. Thats not necessarily “taking advantage”, it’s more situational awareness and strategical planning. At least that’s how I prefer to view my own actions. If you’re not paying attention when the situation changes you may miss opportunity. Just a fact of life. If you’re intentionally misleading, that’s taking advantage. I don’t consider insider-trading to be criminal in any way. Connections are how business is done, whether it’s in trapping or in the markets. Again, just my opinion.
I trap for fun. I skin 'em for the money!
Grinners For Life-Lifetime Member, MO Chapter, Den #1
~You Grin, You're In~
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Re: Exponential growth...
[Re: white17]
#6841088
04/13/20 03:54 PM
04/13/20 03:54 PM
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Joined: May 2010
Posts: 10,481
mn north of blakely
Steven 49er
trapper
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trapper
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 10,481
mn north of blakely
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The Fed repo injections started back in September. That wasn’t due to a strong economy. Production in China was already experiencing a slowdown in production before the new year. Around October there was about 7 million auto loans that were severely delinquent (90 days or more). New auto sales were in the toilet before CV-19. Credit was being extended whether requested or not. My personal credit line was extended twice in the 6 months before the virus, and I never sought additional credit, and had never used the amount I had before I got even more. LOTS of CEO’s bailed with their golden parachutes shortly before any official announcement about a virus. There were hundreds, if not thousands, of businesses shutting down throughout the US, before the virus. Trump openly stated his desire for more QE and a devaluing of the US dollar before the virus. None of these things pointed to a strong economy, they seem to indicate that there are problems. Real estate in the NE and in CA was dropping. We have had investors like Buffet sitting on the sideline with 100’s of millions waiting for the next big buy opportunity, and openly stating that. There’s a few of the reasons. The September repo injections, I believe, were a consequence of really lousy timing. September 15 quarterly corporate taxes due. September 16 New US Treasury issues hit the market Fed essentially raises rates by trying to wind down QE. The result was a huge lack of liquidity that jacked up overnight rates to 10% in the repo market. What's the reasoning for the injections in October, November, December, and January? Rate cuts in July, September and October? Sounds like a healthy economy to me.
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
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Re: Exponential growth...
[Re: white17]
#6841113
04/13/20 04:20 PM
04/13/20 04:20 PM
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Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 4,581
MN
Donnersurvivor
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 4,581
MN
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If it WAS a healthy economy they could have been raising rates all along. Now they have no room to cut further.
They can go lower, Trump seems to like the idea of negative rates.
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