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Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881114
05/24/20 01:54 PM
05/24/20 01:54 PM
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 2,014
SE Iowa USA
A
AKAjust Offline
trapper
AKAjust  Offline
trapper
A

Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 2,014
SE Iowa USA
So do you guys think that covid could have put someone that is sick over the edge? If so it still is the factor that killed them.
As far as india goes their first case didn't start until a couple of weeks after the US did IIRC. Maybe their first reported case?
It ain't over guys.
just

Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881115
05/24/20 01:57 PM
05/24/20 01:57 PM
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,168
Rochester, MN
Teacher Offline
trapper
Teacher  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,168
Rochester, MN
Physical health (Unhealthy habits, smoking, diabetes control, being overweight), crowding, age, occupation, gender, sometimes cultural concentrations, rat/bird populations in the area, etc. lots of factors are considered when a disease shows prevalence for an area. But the curve seems to be flattening in areas where the populations at risk have been affected to the point of “micro” herd immunity.

Okay. So the numbers are off. Let’s for the sake of argument say the number of cases and deaths are off 25%. That means we still have 1.2 million confirmed cases of disease and 75,000 deaths. Aggressive testing is telling us about 10% of those tested (here in Minnesota) have the virus. A low percentage require hospitalization Now with the rest quarantining in place waiting to see if they develop a full fledged-hospital going case. MOST of the deaths in Minnesota so far have been in care facilities. The next population being affected are older people (like me). The odds of me getting it are probably much higher than you based with a cherry picking of age, pre-existing physical conditions and population concentration. Having spent a career in public health, the numbers are telling me I have to be careful.


Never too old to learn
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: Teacher] #6881119
05/24/20 02:12 PM
05/24/20 02:12 PM
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,619
Nebraska
WadeRyan Offline
trapper
WadeRyan  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,619
Nebraska
Originally Posted by Teacher
Physical health (Unhealthy habits, smoking, diabetes control, being overweight), crowding, age, occupation, gender, sometimes cultural concentrations, rat/bird populations in the area, etc. lots of factors are considered when a disease shows prevalence for an area. But the curve seems to be flattening in areas where the populations at risk have been affected to the point of “micro” herd immunity.

Okay. So the numbers are off. Let’s for the sake of argument say the number of cases and deaths are off 25%. That means we still have 1.2 million confirmed cases of disease and 75,000 deaths. Aggressive testing is telling us about 10% of those tested (here in Minnesota) have the virus. A low percentage require hospitalization Now with the rest quarantining in place waiting to see if they develop a full fledged-hospital going case. MOST of the deaths in Minnesota so far have been in care facilities. The next population being affected are older people (like me). The odds of me getting it are probably much higher than you based with a cherry picking of age, pre-existing physical conditions and population concentration. Having spent a career in public health, the numbers are telling me I have to be careful.


Those first four things you listed will kill you whether you have Covid or not they are also prevalent throughout the United States. Like I said no one is questioning Covid has spread throughout the country and the numbers of infected is probably quite higher than what has been found so far. The mortality rate is definitely the issue and if you cut out about four states that have exaggerated those numbers we would all have to lockdown for influenza.


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Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881129
05/24/20 02:29 PM
05/24/20 02:29 PM
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,168
Rochester, MN
Teacher Offline
trapper
Teacher  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,168
Rochester, MN
I don’t remember the basic “rules” for defining cause of death. Maybe Wade knows as I think he has a medical background. But there are definitions that come to play and it is based on autopsy and medical histories. In the case of NYC, Chicago, New Orleans and so on, the bodies were stacked up and autopsies didn’t get done. So, yes, patients might have stage 4 kidney cancer with 6 months to live. But covid-19 was the immediate cause of death. I’m sure a lot of this happened.


Never too old to learn
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: 330-Trapper] #6881130
05/24/20 02:30 PM
05/24/20 02:30 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,238
Illinois
R
ratbrain Offline
trapper
ratbrain  Offline
trapper
R

Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,238
Illinois
Originally Posted by 330-Trapper
Better safe than sorry

If one person in your family gets itcand dies the whole numbers thing would shut you down.

We have 2 in ours. One died... another 47 days in hosp.

I'm Not gonna banter! But until it hits home you feel immortal.

Like 330- My sister-in-law had it however she did not die. She was extremely ill for a long time. Took like 2 weeks to get her result from her covid test.
I'm at the age and take BP meds where I take this virus pretty serious. Oh yeah I am also taking prednisone for an auto-immune problem since March so....triple whammy.

Last edited by ratbrain; 05/24/20 02:31 PM.
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: Teacher] #6881136
05/24/20 02:35 PM
05/24/20 02:35 PM
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,619
Nebraska
WadeRyan Offline
trapper
WadeRyan  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,619
Nebraska
Originally Posted by Teacher
I don’t remember the basic “rules” for defining cause of death. Maybe Wade knows as I think he has a medical background. But there are definitions that come to play and it is based on autopsy and medical histories. In the case of NYC, Chicago, New Orleans and so on, the bodies were stacked up and autopsies didn’t get done. So, yes, patients might have stage 4 kidney cancer with 6 months to live. But covid-19 was the immediate cause of death. I’m sure a lot of this happened.


I have already written it on another post, but I will list what the CDC defines again here as a confirmed or presumptive death by Covid. In case you missed it. I'm just going to copy what I wrote on the other post rather than re-write it for you.


“As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths.”
Well what does that mean confirmed and probable? Well lets look a little deeper into the rabbit hole.
“A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19.
A probable case or death is defined by one of the following:
• Meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19
• Meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence
• Meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19”
So a confirmed case we have a positive laboratory test for Covid-19 at the time of expiration (not necessarily even a guarantee cause of death from Covid but contributing factor). For the probable/presumptive cases we have to meet these guidelines above. So what are they? Let me show you.

Clinical criteria:
"At least two of the following symptoms: fever (measured or subjective), chills, rigors, myalgia,
headache, sore throat, new olfactory and taste disorder(s)"
I don’t know how many people you’ve been around that die. Almost every person I’ve been around that hasn’t died immediately from an illness has an immune response and when they are near death the body temperature spikes. A fever is also found in a large amount of illnesses outside of Covid-19.
OR
"At least one of the following symptoms: cough, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing"
These symptoms are found in a whole host of illnesses, cardiac problems, and even that pneumonia that we have seemed to cure during this pandemic.
OR
"Severe respiratory illness with at least one of the following:
• Clinical or radiographic evidence of pneumonia, or
• Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). "
There’s that pneumonia again. So we meet “clinical criteria” for death by Covid-19 by having pneumonia found on a chest x-ray. Let’s just clear that up.

Laboratory Criteria:
"Laboratory evidence using a method approved or authorized by the FDA or designated authority:
Confirmatory laboratory evidence:
Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a clinical specimen using a molecular amplification detection
test
Presumptive laboratory evidence:
; Detection of specific antigen in a clinical specimen
Detection of specific antibody in serum, plasma, or whole blood indicative of a new or recent
infection "
There’s that word presumptive again which has been all around since Covid began. So reading this if a patient dies and has an antibody that shows they’ve been infected with Covid-19 at some point they meet laboratory criteria for death by Covid.

Epidemiology:
"One or more of the following exposures in the 14 days before onset of symptoms:
Close contact** with a confirmed or probable case of COVID-19 disease; or
Close contact** with a person with:
o clinically compatible illness AND
o linkage to a confirmed case of COVID-19 disease.
Travel to or residence in an area with sustained, ongoing community transmission of SARS-CoV2.
Member of a risk cohort as defined by public health authorities during an outbreak."

At this point there isn’t a state in the United States that hasn’t had some type of sustained ongoing transmission of Covid-19. So essentially every patient that presents to the hospital would meet the epidemiology criteria for death by Covid.

Now this one really makes a guy scratch his head.
"•Meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19”
So wait you can meet criteria for being one of the 64,283 deaths in the United States today without even being tested for Covid 19? What’s this vital record criteria we must have then?
"A death certificate that lists COVID-19 disease or SARS-CoV-2 as a cause of death or a significant condition contributing to death."
So to meet vital records criteria the death certificate simply has to say Covid-19 or SARS-CoV-2 as a contributing factor but we never tested for either of those things to prove it. Why would anyone do that? I’ll let you be the judge.


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Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881138
05/24/20 02:41 PM
05/24/20 02:41 PM
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 5,445
Southern Michigan
T
trappergbus Offline
trapper
trappergbus  Offline
trapper
T

Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 5,445
Southern Michigan
When it first got here ( me thinks it's been here before it went nuts) being 66 I was cautious. I live just north of the Indiana border, my wife has a hair styling business in Michigan. Whitmer extended the close down of her business till 6/13, and won't share her information with here legislators . Indiana is open Hmm. It doesn't take much to figure if the Hospitals code it Covid then they get more money. Or it's fear mongering.. Who can we trust????? not politicians!

There is a reason for everything that happens! Someone is trying to get our attention, we all need to read the 10 commandments and live them.. There are so many unanswered questions like how did it spread coast to coast so quickly? Airborne? I agree with Ryan at this point, never thought i'd say that LOL.. I've been out quiet a few times, very strange vib in the air like something is going to happen. Question for you Ryan, do masks really help or are they a band aid on a gapping wound??


Common sense catches alot of fur..
Pay homage to all you harvest..
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881141
05/24/20 02:47 PM
05/24/20 02:47 PM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 34,751
Central, SD
Law Dog Offline
trapper
Law Dog  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 34,751
Central, SD
You have to wonder why the idea of forcing Covid infected people into nursing homes is anything more the the culling of the elderly. To expose the most at risk people to a virus under those condition seems like a intentional move.


Was born in a Big City Will die in the Country OK with that!

Jerry Herbst
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: trappergbus] #6881143
05/24/20 02:52 PM
05/24/20 02:52 PM
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,619
Nebraska
WadeRyan Offline
trapper
WadeRyan  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,619
Nebraska
Originally Posted by trappergbus
When it first got here ( me thinks it's been here before it went nuts) being 66 I was cautious. I live just north of the Indiana border, my wife has a hair styling business in Michigan. Whitmer extended the close down of her business till 6/13, and won't share her information with here legislators . Indiana is open Hmm. It doesn't take much to figure if the Hospitals code it Covid then they get more money. Or it's fear mongering.. Who can we trust????? not politicians!

There is a reason for everything that happens! Someone is trying to get our attention, we all need to read the 10 commandments and live them.. There are so many unanswered questions like how did it spread coast to coast so quickly? Airborne? I agree with Ryan at this point, never thought i'd say that LOL.. I've been out quiet a few times, very strange vib in the air like something is going to happen. Question for you Ryan, do masks really help or are they a band aid on a gapping wound??


I haven't worn one since this all began unless I was forced to due to employment. I had to shave off even a 5 '0 clock shadow to pass the fit test for my N-95 mask for it to fit securely enough to prevent transmission of droplets. I can almost without hesitation estimate that every homemade mask even if filtered does not even come close to fitting properly enough to prevent droplet particles from an infected person from infecting you. I can see how you could argue it might decrease transmission from someone that's asymptomatic with Covid but at this point I am arguing this virus is no deadlier than any other virus we have encountered on a daily basis.

Last edited by WadeRyan; 05/24/20 03:00 PM.

Follow me on YouTube if you’re bored

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Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881146
05/24/20 02:56 PM
05/24/20 02:56 PM
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,168
Rochester, MN
Teacher Offline
trapper
Teacher  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,168
Rochester, MN
I’ve been having trouble with my internet connection so I’ll go back to a comment hippie made. He said they’ve had 2 cases per ~25,000 population and it was reported as 8 per 100,000. This is what disease investigators and health types call the prevalence rate. To compare apples to apples, a basis of 100,000 possibles is used. That way, it’s easy to compare your area with any other area. Just understand no one is being deceitful. It’s just the way medical comparisons are made.


Never too old to learn
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881150
05/24/20 03:05 PM
05/24/20 03:05 PM
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 19,689
pa
H
hippie Offline
trapper
hippie  Offline
trapper
H

Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 19,689
pa
Our governor WASN'T posting our deaths like that until 3 days ago. They had been reporting deaths and cases per county by the actual numbers, even listed one's in nursing homes. No more, just these numbers that if you don't look at the footnotes, you'd think the numbers are much higher than actual.

I understand most agencies report in this manner.

LAW DOG, our state also sent positive cases into nursing homes it really did a job on them, close to 70percent of our state's deaths were in personal care facilities, ..aka nursing homes.

Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881152
05/24/20 03:08 PM
05/24/20 03:08 PM
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,168
Rochester, MN
Teacher Offline
trapper
Teacher  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,168
Rochester, MN
Wade and I don’t seem to agree on much these days but I agree with him on the masking issue. The home made ones don’t do much but give us all peace of mind-that we’re doing something.

But I’ve had people in my office who should have stayed home with their coughing illness, who felt the agency couldn’t function without them being there. Within a week, most of the office had their crud. This is what scares me: those with a mild case spreading it because they don’t think about how it might affect others.


Never too old to learn
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881156
05/24/20 03:15 PM
05/24/20 03:15 PM
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 19,689
pa
H
hippie Offline
trapper
hippie  Offline
trapper
H

Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 19,689
pa
Teach,

My wife is a recently retired RNAC from a nursing home chain and is use to reading stats. She's been following our state closely.

Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: Teacher] #6881169
05/24/20 03:40 PM
05/24/20 03:40 PM
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 6,545
NC, Orange Co.
QuietButDeadly Offline
trapper
QuietButDeadly  Offline
trapper

Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 6,545
NC, Orange Co.
Originally Posted by Teacher
Wade and I don’t seem to agree on much these days but I agree with him on the masking issue. The home made ones don’t do much but give us all peace of mind-that we’re doing something.

But I’ve had people in my office who should have stayed home with their coughing illness, who felt the agency couldn’t function without them being there. Within a week, most of the office had their crud. This is what scares me: those with a mild case spreading it because they don’t think about how it might affect others.

The home made masks are about as effective as a screen door on a submarine! They probably do more harm than good with folks constantly fidgeting with them and then touching things with their contaminated hands.


Life Member: NCTA, VTA, NTA, TTFHA, MFTI
Member: FTA NRA NWTF
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881499
05/24/20 11:31 PM
05/24/20 11:31 PM
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 5,947
n.e, iowa
C
coonman220 Offline
trapper
coonman220  Offline
trapper
C

Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 5,947
n.e, iowa
I got kick out menards bfore , no.mask, not sure if sign, pay no attention, they try sell.me one at customer service for $1, I got one pickuo, what a scam, company makes $1000s a day on masks. Is there any covid. I think this stuff is a joke. Some kind scam by democrats. To ruin trump , if there ever are mandatory vaccine shots. I not trust get one, might be poison an or something to wipe out mankind. This stuff is just to wierd for me

Last edited by coonman220; 05/24/20 11:33 PM.
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881519
05/25/20 01:10 AM
05/25/20 01:10 AM
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 4,324
AK
F
FairbanksLS Offline
trapper
FairbanksLS  Offline
trapper
F

Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 4,324
AK
Originally Posted by Mark June
Originally Posted by Law Dog
More cases equal more money here in the US it’s incentive to lie about the numbers to gain more aid, dead is dead so they toss everyone in the same category to suck up the bucks before the next state gets the money.


Law Dog,
I see reports are becoming more numerous every day about the long term effects of the 650,000 cancer patients not being treated and on the long list goes. Isn't it incredible how the whole world (well America) stopped for months for a virus?

My wife maintains no such crisis ever existed when the doc tells millions to stop smoking, lose weight, eat right, don't drink, etc. If folks don't want to get sick and die, she maintains it'd make sense that any memo given to us about how we could die, would make us alter our plans and habits. But we don't too much. We take pills if we can. It's better than changing life style.

But there's no C-19 pill.
Man, can you imagine if there was!


You're wife is right. People who chose not to listen to health care professionals regarding the risks of not changing their lifestyle now expect others to sacrifice their jobs and their freedoms. Seems very selfish to me. If someone chooses to roll the dice only they should suffer the loss.


formerly posting as white dog
Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881520
05/25/20 01:29 AM
05/25/20 01:29 AM
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 248
Owatonna,mn
C
Cibarius Offline
trapper
Cibarius  Offline
trapper
C

Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 248
Owatonna,mn
Bodies stacking up is due to the holds and quarantines places on them. The funeral industry does not have excess capacity to slow down the normal flow. There has been no increase in the normal number of deaths in ANY state. The numbers reported are directly related to political party in control.

Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881611
05/25/20 08:24 AM
05/25/20 08:24 AM

M
Mark June OP
Unregistered
Mark June OP
Unregistered
M



The priorities of the governing don't seem to point to a pandemic. They seem to point to an agenda.

Close schools, churches, and most businesses.
Keep the essential locations open: liquor stores, cannabis shops, abortion clinics.
Even naming them as essential and non-essential is an agenda and has no place in any pandemic situation.

This is no list of pandemic proportionality. This is a political listing of preferred sites.

THAT is what this God-fearing, Bible toting, gun tooting, male gendered, covenanted husband of one wife, papa to 5, grandpapa to 11, and proud nationalistic American while on this earth can see without my glasses on.

Oh and I like to rule the beasts of the earth (Gen. 1:26) because others describe what I do as "trapping."

We must realize that in our world today, the list I just typed out is despised at each and every point. All of them. Front to back.

Evil would have us with no God, no self-protection, no gender specificity because it's named in Genesis 1:27 of God's Word, no fathers to lead in a home, and no nation called America where individuals are allowed to make self-decisions freely.

I call out evil and name it as it is.

And like some of us trappers, I ain't afraid to call out evil and won't play along because if evil is serious, so must we be!

I view Covid-19 as one of countless ways we will have happen to all of us exactly what happened to Adam (Gen. 5:5); he died.
No more, no less. We should grieve and respect the lives of all who die of any cause. Covid-19 should not change that perspective in us.
A person who dies of Covid-19 or a drug overdose ends the same; he/she dies, and we should bow our heads and grieve and thank God for the time we had with them while on earth.

Besides, smallpox in colonial America is the real deal in pandemics; estimated that it killed 3 in 10; variolation was used (scratching the pustules from the infected and given to those who had not yet contracted smallpox to lessen the mortality) to try and lessen the devastation.

As always, I look at history and think, boy-o-boy our forefathers were tough, tough, tough.
And the colonials prayed to God more often than today's America does, and I pray God's will be done and that this trend reverts.

Blessings,
Mark

Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: ] #6881823
05/25/20 12:47 PM
05/25/20 12:47 PM
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 10,787
Asheville, NC
C
charles Offline
trapper
charles  Offline
trapper
C

Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 10,787
Asheville, NC
Hair stylist for Great Clips worked a week with a fever. Exposed 91 clients. Should get jail time.

Re: Covid-19 stats are just not believable [Re: charles] #6881875
05/25/20 02:14 PM
05/25/20 02:14 PM
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 5,214
Crivitz WI
Sprung & Rusty Offline
trapper
Sprung & Rusty  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 5,214
Crivitz WI
Originally Posted by charles
Hair stylist for Great Clips worked a week with a fever. Exposed 91 clients. Should get jail time.


Oh geez.


No Jab.
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