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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944484
07/27/20 03:12 PM
07/27/20 03:12 PM
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 15,365
Eastern Shore of Maryland
HobbieTrapper Offline
"Chippendale Trapper"
HobbieTrapper  Offline
"Chippendale Trapper"

Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 15,365
Eastern Shore of Maryland
lol

Dope must still be affordable.


"Forgiveness".......because there is no Time Machine.

-Goofy-
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944673
07/27/20 06:10 PM
07/27/20 06:10 PM
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 425
Wis. up North!
2020 Offline
trapper
2020  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 425
Wis. up North!
not complaining but I can't FIGURE out why the Markets are still robust, you would think based off all this dept and out of work that the Market would be in a free fall ? but I'm not a wall street guy, but it makes no sense to me ????

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944729
07/27/20 07:08 PM
07/27/20 07:08 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
trapper
Steven 49er  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
Three reasons, the stimulus plans, quantitative easing and the FED buying corporate junk bonds. It won't be long until the FED starts buying equities

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944744
07/27/20 07:21 PM
07/27/20 07:21 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
G
Gary Benson Offline
trapper
Gary Benson  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
Star Flakes mentioned Doritos. I refuse to pay $5 for a bag of chips of any kind. Inflated with air, two potatoes in each bag, the bag costs more than the product inside. Aint happenin'.


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944755
07/27/20 07:30 PM
07/27/20 07:30 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
trapper
Kansas Cat  Offline
trapper
K

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
Has the FED ever purchased equities?

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944761
07/27/20 07:38 PM
07/27/20 07:38 PM
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 22,489
williams,mn
trapper les Offline
trapper
trapper les  Offline
trapper

Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 22,489
williams,mn
I have never had so much work.


"Those who hammer their guns into plowshares will plow for those who do not."
Re: Recession [Re: trapper les] #6944764
07/27/20 07:42 PM
07/27/20 07:42 PM
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,701
MN
D
Donnersurvivor Offline
trapper
Donnersurvivor  Offline
trapper
D

Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,701
MN
Originally Posted by trapper les
I have never had so much work.

we are busy as well. Not buying equipment though, do not trust this economy and phone calls to continue into spring.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944767
07/27/20 07:47 PM
07/27/20 07:47 PM
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,028
chelsea,wi
keets Offline
trapper
keets  Offline
trapper

Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,028
chelsea,wi
me too , Les....2X the work I can even get done


2014 goals
(1) HAVE FUN
(2) TRY TO MAKE SOME MONEY
Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944774
07/27/20 07:55 PM
07/27/20 07:55 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
Has the FED ever purchased equities?



No but they have certainly made things conducive to everyone else doing so. That's where the two current acronyms come from. FOMO..fear of missing out ......and TINA.......There is no alternative


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944781
07/27/20 08:08 PM
07/27/20 08:08 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
trapper
Kansas Cat  Offline
trapper
K

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
Thanks White. I am an avid reader of 49er's posts but I don't necessarily agree that the FED will purchase common stock. Purchasing "junk" debt is just a method to get otherwise good enterprises from here to there, if you catch my drift. I agree about the conducive part. I couldn't buy shares quickly enough when I saw what the powers that be were prepared to do back in March. My only regret is that I didn't have enough dry powder to deploy.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944793
07/27/20 08:13 PM
07/27/20 08:13 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
Yes I do not think the Fed will buy equities. Japan started doing that in 2010 and the results have been disastrous.

So far they have only used 10 billion of the 750 billion allocated for corporate bond purchases. I don't think they will use the majority of that.

There is really no good reason that they should buy stocks....even though Yellin brought it up a few years ago


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944797
07/27/20 08:19 PM
07/27/20 08:19 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
trapper
Kansas Cat  Offline
trapper
K

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
Ah yes. The decade that wasn't. 10 out of 750! Wasn't aware of that.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944802
07/27/20 08:25 PM
07/27/20 08:25 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
Yep. The Fed balance sheet.......although greatly expanded, has actually started to stabilize and decline slightly.

The big difference between the Fed buying bonds as opposed to stocks is that bonds eventually mature and the liability will roll off the balance sheet. But with stocks...........once they buy them they hold them forever or until they decide to dump them. You can imagine the impact that would have on the market.

The Bank of Japan owns 3/4 of all stock ETF's on the Japanese market. They don't dare sell any of it at this point


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944812
07/27/20 08:36 PM
07/27/20 08:36 PM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,699
Armpit, ak
D
Dirt Offline
trapper
Dirt  Offline
trapper
D

Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,699
Armpit, ak
"Geneva - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its financial outlook for the global air transport industry showing that airlines are expected to lose $84.3 billion in 2020 for a net profit margin of -20.1%. Revenues will fall 50% to $419 billion from $838 billion in 2019. In 2021, losses are expected to be cut to $15.8 billion as revenues rise to $598 billion.

“Financially, 2020 will go down as the worst year in the history of aviation. On average, every day of this year will add $230 million to industry losses. In total that’s a loss of $84.3 billion. It means that—based on an estimate of 2.2 billion passengers this year—airlines will lose $37.54 per passenger. That’s why government financial relief was and remains crucial as airlines burn through cash,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO."

"The global cruise industry expected to carry 32 million passengers and take in $71 billion in revenue this year. That will fall by at least 50% this year, says Euromonitor International, a consulting firm. It took the industry three years to recover from the 2009 recession; this time, it will take longer, Euromonitor analyst Alex Jarman said."

Last edited by Dirt; 07/27/20 08:42 PM.

Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944823
07/27/20 08:43 PM
07/27/20 08:43 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
trapper
Kansas Cat  Offline
trapper
K

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
I own a little Delta. Some of the airlines will survive. I figured Delta has as good a chance as anyone. People will eventually start flying again. All apologies to AOC! I am sure she is just as convinced that people will switch to electric train travel between the US and Europe.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944831
07/27/20 08:49 PM
07/27/20 08:49 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
Hard and fast rule for me is NEVER EVER buy into an airline.

Probably Delta will come out of this some day. But what are the opportunity costs in interim ?

You have more courage than I do


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944843
07/27/20 08:57 PM
07/27/20 08:57 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
trapper
Kansas Cat  Offline
trapper
K

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
That is probably a good rule. In my defense, I bought it at what I thought was an inexpensive price! Next time it runs to 36 I will probably sell and look elsewhere.

Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944847
07/27/20 09:00 PM
07/27/20 09:00 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
G
Gary Benson Offline
trapper
Gary Benson  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
I own a little Delta. Some of the airlines will survive. I figured Delta has as good a chance as anyone. People will eventually start flying again. All apologies to AOC! I am sure she is just as convinced that people will switch to electric train travel between the US and Europe.

I wish she would take that train.


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944860
07/27/20 09:10 PM
07/27/20 09:10 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
trapper
Kansas Cat  Offline
trapper
K

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
A wish we can all get behind brother. Better yet, schedule the DNC leadership conference on the trip. All aboard!

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944861
07/27/20 09:10 PM
07/27/20 09:10 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 993
Oklahoma
Blaine County Offline
trapper
Blaine County  Offline
trapper

Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 993
Oklahoma
We are seeing something interesting here in Oklahoma. When oil prices are up and the oilfield crowd is flush with cash, land prices rise. Those guys are now broke but land prices are going up again. Likely a function of interest rates, but I also think there is a distrust of the stock market and people are looking to park their money in something tangible. And, the housing market is booming too.

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