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Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944862
07/27/20 09:11 PM
07/27/20 09:11 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
That is probably a good rule. In my defense, I bought it at what I thought was an inexpensive price! Next time it runs to 36 I will probably sell and look elsewhere.



OUCH !
I certainly would laugh But if I did it would go on up to 86


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944876
07/27/20 09:20 PM
07/27/20 09:20 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
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Kansas
Probably has nothing to do with what is happening in the cities. Don't worry, when enough city folks escape to God's country, they will screw it up too. If you live anywhere near a large metropolitan area, you already know what I mean. I have been in the oil business my whole life. Oil guys buying land is a recent development. They never needed to in the past. When oil prices are high again, they will be in the land buying business again.

Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944881
07/27/20 09:22 PM
07/27/20 09:22 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 993
Oklahoma
Blaine County Offline
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Blaine County  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 993
Oklahoma
Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
Probably has nothing to do with what is happening in the cities. Don't worry, when enough city folks escape to God's country, they will screw it up too. If you live anywhere near a large metropolitan area, you already know what I mean. I have been in the oil business my whole life. Oil guys buying land is a recent development. They never needed to in the past. When oil prices are high again, they will be in the land buying business again.


I want them to stay low. I still have a neighbor's place (or two) I want to buy.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944882
07/27/20 09:22 PM
07/27/20 09:22 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
No I think the airline problems are strictly related to the virus

Do you think oil will ever be "high" again ?


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6944890
07/27/20 09:27 PM
07/27/20 09:27 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 993
Oklahoma
Blaine County Offline
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Oklahoma
Originally Posted by white17
No I think the airline problems are strictly related to the virus

Do you think oil will ever be "high" again ?


Good question. Short of some major geopolitical disruption, I don't think we'll see $100 oil in the next ten or 15 years.

Supply is just too great. I would be perfectly happy with $60-$70 oil. My clients would be too.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944894
07/27/20 09:31 PM
07/27/20 09:31 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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McGrath, AK
That's my thinking too. And the further that day is in the future, the greater the chance of some alt-energy breakthrough on battery technology or hydrogen powered vehicles.

I think if Biden wins, there could be an all-out assault on fracking.That could push the price up considerably


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944896
07/27/20 09:34 PM
07/27/20 09:34 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
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Kansas
Yes. Unless it is legislated out of existence or replaced by an alternative. The demand destruction caused by the virus will eventually disappear. OPEC will return to full production and the US production surge will subside. The increase in production associated with the horizontal drilling surge is a temporary bump. There is no secondary or tertiary production associated with the "shale" boom. These events will take time, but oil will be high again.

Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944905
07/27/20 09:38 PM
07/27/20 09:38 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 993
Oklahoma
Blaine County Offline
trapper
Blaine County  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 993
Oklahoma
Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
Yes. Unless it is legislated out of existence or replaced by an alternative. The demand destruction caused by the virus will eventually disappear. OPEC will return to full production and the US production surge will subside. The increase in production associated with the horizontal drilling surge is a temporary bump. There is no secondary or tertiary production associated with the "shale" boom. These events will take time, but oil will be high again.


Agree with you and White. Good points.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944906
07/27/20 09:39 PM
07/27/20 09:39 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
It makes it tough when the OPEC cost of production is so much lower than ours. It would also be nice if we had a refinery or three that was more flexible in the grades of crude they can handle.


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: keets] #6944910
07/27/20 09:42 PM
07/27/20 09:42 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,190
SEPA
L
Lugnut Offline
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Lugnut  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,190
SEPA
Originally Posted by Donnersurvivor
Originally Posted by trapper les
I have never had so much work.

we are busy as well. Not buying equipment though, do not trust this economy and phone calls to continue into spring.


Originally Posted by keets
me too , Les....2X the work I can even get done


Same here. I know it doesn't mean much because as a small business owner my companies are just a tiny drop in a big ocean. But, I've been busier the last two-plus years than ever before in my forty-plus year-long career in residential construction/remodeling and property management. So are all of the general contractors and sub-contractions I know.

I remember sitting in the office praying the phone would ring during the Obama years. Now I hope it doesn't. I've been subbing stuff out more than ever before and I'm still turning customers away left and right and i hate doing that.

I tell them I'm booked for at least nine months to a year and some of them tell me they'll wait. I suspect they got similar results from other contractors.

From my very narrow perspective, the economy is just fine. And if it tanks tomorrow, I'll still have work for nine months to year. grin


Eh...wot?

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944919
07/27/20 09:48 PM
07/27/20 09:48 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
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Kansas Cat  Offline
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Posts: 833
Kansas
Refinery retrofits are easy fixes. The moronic oil policies of the left are the oil market wet dreams of the Middle East and the gasoline pump nightmares of the US motorist.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944927
07/27/20 09:52 PM
07/27/20 09:52 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Joined: Mar 2007
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McGrath, AK
AMEN !

I see there is growing interest in hydrogen powered heavy trucking.

I was disappointed a few years ago when T Boone was hot & heavy into natgas filling stations. That didn't last long. Too bad because we have a lifetime supply at these demand levels


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944930
07/27/20 09:56 PM
07/27/20 09:56 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
trapper
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Kansas
The political left was 100% in favor of natural gas until the oil industry found and developed hundreds of years of supply and then suddenly it fell out of favor. Very strange. Anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of chemistry knows it is the cleanest fuel available.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944935
07/27/20 10:01 PM
07/27/20 10:01 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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McGrath, AK
Right ! Other than nukes.


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6945017
07/27/20 11:34 PM
07/27/20 11:34 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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mn north of blakely
Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
Has the FED ever purchased equities?


Before this year had the FED ever purchased corporate bonds? I think they will buy equities, I think they will throw everything including the kitchen sink to avoid what is coming. I don't think it will happen in the next 6 to 12 months.

If DXY drops another 15 20 points oil could make a run at $100 granted OPEC would have to make cuts.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6945281
07/28/20 10:25 AM
07/28/20 10:25 AM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
Yes this dropping dollar could push up oil a little bit. Metals probably. Foreign stocks most likely and US stocks that earn the majority of their profits outside the US.


If the Fed bought equities, what do you see as the result and who would be the beneficiaries ?


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: Cos] #6945301
07/28/20 10:44 AM
07/28/20 10:44 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,742
MN, Land of 10,000 Lakes
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Trapper7 Offline
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Originally Posted by Cos
Weve either fallen off the edge of the cliff and dont know it yet or are riding on some big bubbles IMO.

Help wanted signs at just about every business around here. My wife does hiring for a company with 180 employees and cant keep or fill positions right now to save her life. Strange times

Why would people want to return to work when they are getting more money with unemployment and $600 a week than they were earning at work? Thankfully, that will end. The new package proposed by the republicans would provide $200 per week instead of $600 like the democrats want. The republicans want a tax cut for workers. The democrats don't.

I know a few people who are upset that they might have to return to work. I guess they think this free money should go on forever.


If you're being treated poorly by the police, try not breaking the law and see if that helps.
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6945308
07/28/20 10:54 AM
07/28/20 10:54 AM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,699
Armpit, ak
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Dirt Offline
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Armpit, ak
Why should workers get a tax cut? They got jobs and money.


Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: Trapper7] #6945361
07/28/20 11:48 AM
07/28/20 11:48 AM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 753
MI
C
Cos Offline
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Posts: 753
MI
Originally Posted by Trapper7
Originally Posted by Cos
Weve either fallen off the edge of the cliff and dont know it yet or are riding on some big bubbles IMO.

Help wanted signs at just about every business around here. My wife does hiring for a company with 180 employees and cant keep or fill positions right now to save her life. Strange times

Why would people want to return to work when they are getting more money with unemployment and $600 a week than they were earning at work? Thankfully, that will end. The new package proposed by the republicans would provide $200 per week instead of $600 like the democrats want. The republicans want a tax cut for workers. The democrats don't.

I know a few people who are upset that they might have to return to work. I guess they think this free money should go on forever.


Agreed on the $600 being a bad idea. Dont know anything about the tax cuts.

Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6947259
07/29/20 11:11 PM
07/29/20 11:11 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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mn north of blakely
Originally Posted by white17
..


If the Fed bought equities, what do you see as the result and who would be the beneficiaries ?


That's a good question. Wall Street? Corporations? Pension plans? Personally I don't think anyone would benefit in the long run except the Federal Reserve.

I'm of the opinion there is good odds that the markets will retest March lows, if it blows through those lows I don't see how the FED can not start buying equities.

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