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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6947569
07/30/20 10:09 AM
07/30/20 10:09 AM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,846
McGrath, AK
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white17 Online content

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Online Content

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,846
McGrath, AK
Well it sure hasn't helped anyone in Japan or Australia. In fact, since the BOJ started buying stocks, the overall price level has declined. I suspect that MAY be due in part to people being afraid the BOJ will dump shares back on the market ...further depressing prices.

Individuals COULD benefit psychologically because they may feel more wealthy, IF their portfolio value increases. The Fed would like that because people may be more inclined to spend. I think that people may be more inclined to sell.

I think the greater fool theory may emphasize itself. If the Fed tries to drive up asset prices when the economy is collapsing, I think more people would take advantage of having a willing buyer.

Mutual funds and holders of mutual funds may benefit initially, on paper because many of them must continuously buy or sell shares in order to stay within proscribed limits of the fund. Some companies share prices will rise while others fall. The funds will need to maintain the correct allocations.

The only true beneficiary that I can see might be some public companies who wish to engage in equity financing for some individual reason. IF their share price increases, they can borrow more cheaply than if it falls.

I think long before we see the Fed buying stocks, we will see the Fed using yield curve manipulation in order to control credit and liquidity without further expanding its own balance sheet. I wouldn't be surprised to see that within the next twelve months.

I also think it would be a terrible thing not just for the US but for the world.


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948515
07/30/20 10:56 PM
07/30/20 10:56 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,613
mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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mn north of blakely
I agree that buying equities would be terrible, I also think buying MBS's, buying corporate junk bonds, QE, artificially low interest rates and anything else that manipulates the free market is terrible.

It's gonna be a heck of a ride.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948517
07/30/20 10:58 PM
07/30/20 10:58 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Online content

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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No argument from me.

The bigger problem is how do they unwind it ?? I don't know and I don't think they have any better answer than I do,


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948523
07/30/20 11:05 PM
07/30/20 11:05 PM
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mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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mn north of blakely
They can't unwind it. The world is addicted to cheap capital.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948525
07/30/20 11:09 PM
07/30/20 11:09 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Online content

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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McGrath, AK
True story AND the world is addicted to the US 10 year treasury note as a proxy for "risk free" investment. If they manipulate the yield curve.......that correlation goes away


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948531
07/30/20 11:16 PM
07/30/20 11:16 PM
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mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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That correlation has already gone away, the world hasn't realized it yet.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948542
07/30/20 11:27 PM
07/30/20 11:27 PM
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Online content

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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McGrath, AK
Well at this point the market is still setting rates. Not the Fed. Let's hope it stays that way


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948594
07/31/20 12:27 AM
07/31/20 12:27 AM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 165
Oregon
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Catpincher Offline
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Oregon
Faith in the dollar is keeping this chucker afloat. I am probably wrong as I keep moving my currency into more tangible assets i.e. Cattle, land ,food metals and what I consider a fun life. P.S. May not be suitable for others and minor aged folks!

Last edited by Catpincher; 07/31/20 12:31 AM. Reason: Add on
Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6949400
07/31/20 06:33 PM
07/31/20 06:33 PM
Joined: May 2010
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mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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Steven 49er  Offline
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mn north of blakely
Originally Posted by white17
Well at this point the market is still setting rates. Not the Fed. Let's hope it stays that way


Sub 3 percent 30 year fixed mortgage rates is set by the market?That's lower than inflation and taxes. 10 year tbonds are below the rate of inflation.

No wonder pensions and Social Security are going broke.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6949984
07/31/20 10:39 PM
07/31/20 10:39 PM
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Online content

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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McGrath, AK
Yes I agree. We have a nominal rate on the 10 year treasury of around 0.55% but in terms of REAL rates we are negative.

But YES the market is actually setting these rates. But the fed is currently discussing actually pegging treasury rates at certain levels. They know that they can't control the bond market which is many times larger than the stock market. But if they can dictate rates for each term....3,5,7, 10 year notes..then they will have neutered the bond vigilantes.

The really dangerous thing about that is the market relies on price discovery..and thus rates, through trading. If that is gone then no one really can calculate the cost of risk


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: Steven 49er] #6950427
08/01/20 11:14 AM
08/01/20 11:14 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 7,078
East-Central Wisconsin
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bblwi Offline
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East-Central Wisconsin
Ninety posts on recession related items and I found none that talked about 30-40 million Americans or the 100s of millions of people around the world not working or creating services, materials or wealth. To me it shows how far the split is between money and work in our modern world. Every time we go through these economic meltdowns it seems we transfer more monies to fewer and fewer people. If businesses just want to hold cash and assets maybe it is wise for governments to print money to feed those that capitalistic businesses don't want to hire. We as a nation were not interested in paying off 3-4 trillion of debt in the 90s when we had surplus funds, what makes us think we have any interest in doing so with 1 trillion deficits and 25 plus trillion of debt.

Bryce

Re: Recession [Re: Steven 49er] #6950458
08/01/20 11:56 AM
08/01/20 11:56 AM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,688
Armpit, ak
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Armpit, ak
Originally Posted by Steven 49er
I agree that buying equities would be terrible, I also think buying MBS's, buying corporate junk bonds, QE, artificially low interest rates and anything else that manipulates the free market is terrible.

It's gonna be a heck of a ride.


Don't forget the worse government free market manipulating programs( Federal and State) that manipulate the housing market. Those seem to always end poorly. Repeat. crazy


Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950467
08/01/20 12:13 PM
08/01/20 12:13 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,846
McGrath, AK
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white17 Online content

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Joined: Mar 2007
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McGrath, AK
Rising unemployment was mentioned on page one.

I think we have a situation where people don't want to work rather than businesses that don't want to hire. Many businesses can't get their prior employees to return because of the $600 giveaway from government.

I don't believe anyone honestly thinks the national debt can or will ever be paid off


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950483
08/01/20 12:24 PM
08/01/20 12:24 PM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,688
Armpit, ak
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It would not surprise me if the unemployed numbers are low. How many people are being payed (officially employed) by their employers from the government program to pay your employees that don't work because your business has been partly closed to closed?

This corona shut down is a disaster here.


Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950820
08/01/20 07:03 PM
08/01/20 07:03 PM
Joined: May 2010
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mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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The debt can't be paid off. That will have a deflationary effect on the money supply.

Bryce you don't suppose that what we have been talking about the last 30 pages causes what you speak of. The system is rigged and it won't change until we go away from a debt backed currency. In fact it will get worse. Those capitalistic businesses you speak of stopped being true capitalists a long time ago. Government needs to get the heck out of markets.

Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6950877
08/01/20 08:02 PM
08/01/20 08:02 PM
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,026
chelsea,wi
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chelsea,wi
Originally Posted by white17
Rising unemployment was mentioned on page one.

I think we have a situation where people don't want to work rather than businesses that don't want to hire. Many businesses can't get their prior employees to return because of the $600 giveaway from government.

I don't believe anyone honestly thinks the national debt can or will ever be paid off



THIS IS IT


2014 goals
(1) HAVE FUN
(2) TRY TO MAKE SOME MONEY
Re: Recession [Re: Steven 49er] #6950896
08/01/20 08:15 PM
08/01/20 08:15 PM
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,080
WI
Sprung & Rusty Online content
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Sprung & Rusty  Online Content
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WI
Originally Posted by Steven 49er
The debt can't be paid off. That will have a deflationary effect on the money supply.

Bryce you don't suppose that what we have been talking about the last 30 pages causes what you speak of. The system is rigged and it won't change until we go away from a debt backed currency. In fact it will get worse. Those capitalistic businesses you speak of stopped being true capitalists a long time ago. Government needs to get the heck out of markets.


It is rigged. I will change when we have a global reset and global currency. unless something really changes, we're headed that way.

Last edited by Sprung & Rusty; 08/01/20 08:16 PM.
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950910
08/01/20 08:27 PM
08/01/20 08:27 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,846
McGrath, AK
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white17 Online content

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Joined: Mar 2007
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McGrath, AK
We DO have a global currency. It's called the dollar. I have been on 5 continents and never found a place that wouldn't rather have US dollars instead of local currency


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950919
08/01/20 08:40 PM
08/01/20 08:40 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 832
Kansas
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Kansas
Yes. I haven't been anywhere the dollar wasn't welcome at the local bank. I very seldom saw an advertised exchange rate for Chinese currency.

Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6951003
08/01/20 09:27 PM
08/01/20 09:27 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 7,078
East-Central Wisconsin
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bblwi Offline
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East-Central Wisconsin
So a debt backed currency is why a laid off hospitality worker can't work. In some states they don't even qualify for assistance because their income is too low and then they get hammered because they would rather stay home! Many were not considered UE because the employers used the funds to keep them on staff even if they were not working. We will see if the hospitality places open up in mass early this month.

Bryce

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