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Recession #6943869
07/26/20 09:04 PM
07/26/20 09:04 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,638
KY.usa
rex123 Offline OP
trapper
rex123  Offline OP
trapper

Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,638
KY.usa
With what's happening do any of you think we are headed for a recession and if so how bad?

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943872
07/26/20 09:09 PM
07/26/20 09:09 PM
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 547
Norborne MO
B
BBarnes Offline
trapper
BBarnes  Offline
trapper
B

Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 547
Norborne MO
IMO, were all ready heading that way. Its going to be bad very bad.

B

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943873
07/26/20 09:10 PM
07/26/20 09:10 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
Been in it for a few months now. More to come


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943876
07/26/20 09:15 PM
07/26/20 09:15 PM
Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,929
Iowa
T
trapdog1 Offline
trapper
trapdog1  Offline
trapper
T

Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,929
Iowa
I dunno. I think we'll be alright. I don't have anything to base that on, just being optimistic.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943878
07/26/20 09:18 PM
07/26/20 09:18 PM
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 57
Republic of CO
Cootswatter Offline
trapper
Cootswatter  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 57
Republic of CO
We just added $14 trillion to our debt. Never ever pay that back.


"I've come to chew bubble gum and to kick ars, and I'm all out of bubble gum." - Rowdy Roddy Piper - They Live
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943882
07/26/20 09:21 PM
07/26/20 09:21 PM
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 9,585
Georgia
warrior Offline
trapper
warrior  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 9,585
Georgia
Not after November.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943902
07/26/20 09:39 PM
07/26/20 09:39 PM
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 165
trempealeau co wi
R
rudydog Offline
trapper
rudydog  Offline
trapper
R

Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 165
trempealeau co wi
At the rate were spending money we don't have a recession would be the best outcome we can hope for.

Re: Recession [Re: Cootswatter] #6943921
07/26/20 10:01 PM
07/26/20 10:01 PM
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,101
WI
Sprung & Rusty Offline
trapper
Sprung & Rusty  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,101
WI
Originally Posted by Cootswatter
We just added $14 trillion to our debt. Never ever pay that back.


It's all fake money anyway. No worries.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943924
07/26/20 10:02 PM
07/26/20 10:02 PM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 12,465
North East Kansas
Marty Offline
trapper
Marty  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 12,465
North East Kansas
depression.


High Speed/Low Drag...
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943926
07/26/20 10:02 PM
07/26/20 10:02 PM
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 4,795
Alaska and Washington State
W
waggler Offline
trapper
waggler  Offline
trapper
W

Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 4,795
Alaska and Washington State
I don't understand how we could be in a recession when house prices are skyrocketing the way they are.


My life is better than your vacation
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943927
07/26/20 10:03 PM
07/26/20 10:03 PM
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,981
SW Pa
W
wr otis Offline
trapper
wr otis  Offline
trapper
W

Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,981
SW Pa
Biden wins and it's all going down the tubes. The truth.

Re: Recession [Re: waggler] #6943934
07/26/20 10:07 PM
07/26/20 10:07 PM
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,101
WI
Sprung & Rusty Offline
trapper
Sprung & Rusty  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,101
WI
Originally Posted by waggler
I don't understand how we could be in a recession when house prices are skyrocketing the way they are.


And it will hurt when that bubble breaks. Just like '09

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943940
07/26/20 10:12 PM
07/26/20 10:12 PM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 753
MI
C
Cos Offline
trapper
Cos  Offline
trapper
C

Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 753
MI
Weve either fallen off the edge of the cliff and dont know it yet or are riding on some big bubbles IMO.

Help wanted signs at just about every business around here. My wife does hiring for a company with 180 employees and cant keep or fill positions right now to save her life. Strange times

Re: Recession [Re: Sprung & Rusty] #6943942
07/26/20 10:12 PM
07/26/20 10:12 PM
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 536
SE SD
D
DWC Offline
trapper
DWC  Offline
trapper
D

Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 536
SE SD
Originally Posted by Sprung & Rusty
Originally Posted by Cootswatter
We just added $14 trillion to our debt. Never ever pay that back.


It's all fake money anyway. No worries.


Maybe theyll pay 15 fake dollars for carcass coon this fall!!!

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943943
07/26/20 10:12 PM
07/26/20 10:12 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
G
Gary Benson Offline
trapper
Gary Benson  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
Lumber prices have doubled. That's a recession. It'll take awhile for it to all take effect. And states are just now going on lockdown for the second time. Blue states are going to be very stubborn until November. Maybe longer.


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Recession [Re: Cos] #6943945
07/26/20 10:13 PM
07/26/20 10:13 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
G
Gary Benson Offline
trapper
Gary Benson  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
Originally Posted by Cos
We’ve either fallen off the edge of the cliff and don’t know it yet or are riding on some big bubbles IMO.

Help wanted signs at just about every business around here. My wife does hiring for a company with 180 employees and can’t keep or fill positions right now to save her life. Strange times

It's almost as if someone with a lot of money that hates America is paying people NOT to work.


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Recession [Re: Cos] #6943946
07/26/20 10:14 PM
07/26/20 10:14 PM
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 3,603
Marion Kansas
Y
Yes sir Offline
trapper
Yes sir  Offline
trapper
Y

Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 3,603
Marion Kansas
Originally Posted by Cos
Weve either fallen off the edge of the cliff and dont know it yet or are riding on some big bubbles IMO.

Help wanted signs at just about every business around here. My wife does hiring for a company with 180 employees and cant keep or fill positions right now to save her life. Strange times

like a 14 trillion dollar bubble

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943948
07/26/20 10:15 PM
07/26/20 10:15 PM
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 3,603
Marion Kansas
Y
Yes sir Offline
trapper
Yes sir  Offline
trapper
Y

Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 3,603
Marion Kansas
everything is looking great i dont see anything to worry about

Re: Recession [Re: Gary Benson] #6943949
07/26/20 10:16 PM
07/26/20 10:16 PM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 753
MI
C
Cos Offline
trapper
Cos  Offline
trapper
C

Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 753
MI
Originally Posted by Gary Benson
Originally Posted by Cos
We’ve either fallen off the edge of the cliff and don’t know it yet or are riding on some big bubbles IMO.

Help wanted signs at just about every business around here. My wife does hiring for a company with 180 employees and can’t keep or fill positions right now to save her life. Strange times

It's almost as if someone with a lot of money that hates America is paying people NOT to work.


Its going to get interesting now that is changing. That was a bad move on the part of congress.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943951
07/26/20 10:16 PM
07/26/20 10:16 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,527
wyoming southeast
D
danvee Offline
trapper
danvee  Offline
trapper
D

Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,527
wyoming southeast
Read the bible its not about blue state or red states its about all of us and what has been going on for years. Everyone chasing the dollar, follow the money you will find the problem.

Re: Recession [Re: Yes sir] #6943952
07/26/20 10:17 PM
07/26/20 10:17 PM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 753
MI
C
Cos Offline
trapper
Cos  Offline
trapper
C

Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 753
MI
Originally Posted by Yes sir
everything is looking great i dont see anything to worry about


You win!

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943953
07/26/20 10:18 PM
07/26/20 10:18 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
G
Gary Benson Offline
trapper
Gary Benson  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
Follow the money I find Soros.


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943956
07/26/20 10:19 PM
07/26/20 10:19 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
G
Gary Benson Offline
trapper
Gary Benson  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
I read that Soros had gave away 25 billion and still has 8 billion. I wonder who got the 25 billion?


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Recession [Re: Yes sir] #6943958
07/26/20 10:21 PM
07/26/20 10:21 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
G
Gary Benson Offline
trapper
Gary Benson  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
Originally Posted by Yes sir
everything is looking great i dont see anything to worry about

I can't see the forest. There's too many trees in the way.


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Recession [Re: Gary Benson] #6943959
07/26/20 10:21 PM
07/26/20 10:21 PM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 753
MI
C
Cos Offline
trapper
Cos  Offline
trapper
C

Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 753
MI
Originally Posted by Gary Benson
I read that Soros had gave away 25 billion and still has 8 billion. I wonder who got the 25 billion?


I did. I wasnt going to tell, but....

Re: Recession [Re: Cos] #6943989
07/26/20 11:06 PM
07/26/20 11:06 PM
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 69
wi.
S
slidewire Offline
trapper
slidewire  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 69
wi.
Originally Posted by Cos
Weve either fallen off the edge of the cliff and dont know it yet or are riding on some big bubbles IMO.

Help wanted signs at just about every business around here. My wife does hiring for a company with 180 employees and cant keep or fill positions right now to save her life. Strange times


maybe those $600 unemployment checks are to blame


my wants are simple
my needs are few
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943991
07/26/20 11:07 PM
07/26/20 11:07 PM
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 4,795
Alaska and Washington State
W
waggler Offline
trapper
waggler  Offline
trapper
W

Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 4,795
Alaska and Washington State
I think we are trying to borrow and print our way out of the problem. Recession I'm not too sure a out, but it sure looks like we are heading into some massive inflation.


My life is better than your vacation
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6943993
07/26/20 11:17 PM
07/26/20 11:17 PM
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,828
Manitoba
N
Northof50 Offline
trapper
Northof50  Offline
trapper
N

Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,828
Manitoba
You thought that 1930 was bad
You are missing a key letters in your heading.....D...E...P

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944005
07/26/20 11:34 PM
07/26/20 11:34 PM
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 493
McCurtain Co. Oklahoma
O
OKforester Offline
trapper
OKforester  Offline
trapper
O

Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 493
McCurtain Co. Oklahoma
We do have one major indicator of a recession, high unemployment. Normally that suggests there are fewer job openings than people looking for work. That is not the case now. We are actually financially encouraging people not to work. Craziest thing Ive ever heard of but thats where we are. The soaring housing market and rising lumber prices are actually indicators of a strong economy. Its hard to analyse normal economic indicators right now with everything going on.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944026
07/27/20 12:44 AM
07/27/20 12:44 AM
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 820
upstate NY
M
Mr. Ed Offline
trapper
Mr. Ed  Offline
trapper
M

Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 820
upstate NY
We were at 19 trillion debt before election. Trump toted that if we hit 22 trillion that would basically classify us as bankrupt. Guess we are there and then some.

Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6944035
07/27/20 01:00 AM
07/27/20 01:00 AM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
trapper
Steven 49er  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
Originally Posted by white17
Been in it for a few months now. More to come


White knows what he is talking about.

Re: Recession [Re: Gary Benson] #6944041
07/27/20 01:06 AM
07/27/20 01:06 AM
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,256
Yukon
Y
yukon254 Offline
trapper
yukon254  Offline
trapper
Y

Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 2,256
Yukon
Originally Posted by Gary Benson
I read that Soros had gave away 25 billion and still has 8 billion. I wonder who got the 25 billion?


It was split up among every left wing marxist organization that hates America...


do unto others as you would have them do unto you

www.grizzlycreeklodge.com
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944097
07/27/20 07:14 AM
07/27/20 07:14 AM
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 8,181
MT
S
snowy Offline
trapper
snowy  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 8,181
MT
Biden wins and the blue party will wave their wane and all will be like nothing has happened. Watch and see! lol They are the perfect, know it all, blue party.


Give me a fish, I will eat for a day. Teach me to fish, I will eat for a lifetime
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944263
07/27/20 11:00 AM
07/27/20 11:00 AM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,699
Armpit, ak
D
Dirt Offline
trapper
Dirt  Offline
trapper
D

Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,699
Armpit, ak
I drove by the fishing hole a couple days back. Normally there would be at least 30 boats out fishing. There were 2. Pretty sure we are in a depression in my world. With so many places closed or on reduced capacity, what are all these jobs I read about that are out there? They sure aren't here. The Tourist industry is Dead.


Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: waggler] #6944303
07/27/20 11:39 AM
07/27/20 11:39 AM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by waggler
I think we are trying to borrow and print our way out of the problem. Recession I'm not too sure a out, but it sure looks like we are heading into some massive inflation.



Not for a while yet IMO.

Based on the decline in overall economic activity ( down4.8% gdp in the first quarter) and the rising unemployment numbers, we satisfy the classic definition of a recession. I suspect second quarter numbers will be at least as bad once they are reported....which should be soon.

I think the housing market is an anomaly. People trying to get out of the cities and aided in that attempt by never before seen low interest rates.


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: Northof50] #6944309
07/27/20 11:51 AM
07/27/20 11:51 AM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,074
Wisconsin
G
Green Bay Offline
trapper
Green Bay  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,074
Wisconsin
Originally Posted by Northof50
You thought that 1930 was bad
You are missing a key letters in your heading.....D...E...P


I think this is much closer to the truth. No one has mentioned international trade - the Covid Crisis is having a big impact world wide disrupting traditional supply chains. World wide they are predicting famine on a level not seen in a long time.

All of these factors play a role in the US economy.

Brian

Re: Recession [Re: Mr. Ed] #6944409
07/27/20 01:30 PM
07/27/20 01:30 PM
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 126
WI
B
BvrRetriever Offline
trapper
BvrRetriever  Offline
trapper
B

Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 126
WI
Originally Posted by Mr. Ed
We were at 19 trillion debt before election. Trump toted that if we hit 22 trillion that would basically classify us as bankrupt. Guess we are there and then some.


Not the first time he's driven something into bankruptcy....financial responsibility means nothing to him.

Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6944448
07/27/20 02:30 PM
07/27/20 02:30 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
trapper
Steven 49er  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by waggler
I think we are trying to borrow and print our way out of the problem. Recession I'm not too sure a out, but it sure looks like we are heading into some massive inflation.



Not for a while yet IMO.

Based on the decline in overall economic activity ( down4.8% gdp in the first quarter) and the rising unemployment numbers, we satisfy the classic definition of a recession. I suspect second quarter numbers will be at least as bad once they are reported....which should be soon.

I think the housing market is an anomaly. People trying to get out of the cities and aided in that attempt by never before seen low interest rates.


We'll see deflation before hyperinflation.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944450
07/27/20 02:37 PM
07/27/20 02:37 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 29,871
McGrath, AK
I agree !!


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944460
07/27/20 02:47 PM
07/27/20 02:47 PM
Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 776
MN, USA
star flakes Offline
trapper
star flakes  Offline
trapper

Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 776
MN, USA
The United States and the world have been in the Obama super Depression since 2008. Those who were unaware of this are the people with money and asking when things will get bad.
It has been bad for over a decade for millions of Americans. I read a comment above that we are headed for inflation. Sugar has risen from 1.89 a pound to 2.59 a pound. Toilet paper was already at 30% inflation before the plague spiked the numbers and it is still rising. There has been across the board inflation, Doritos makes their packages smaller as an example. This cheap money has brought a steady inflation rate since Obama of around 12%. Those who do not notice it, fail to watch the price fixing, as there is a rotation of costs placed on goods. Heating fuel for the summer fill is up 20 cents a gallon from last year.

All Donald Trump did with Gary Cohn of Goldman Sachs was provide tax cuts for repatriated money in the conglomerates. That was running out as the plague struck. These massive monetized debt increases in debt buying debt of 3 trillion a pop is what this fake economy is running on, which is forced foreign labor and Americans who work the jobs which pay less than minimum in ruining their futures.

There is not any way this is ever going to be paid off. The only solution is going to be another FDR war, to loot Asia, as the world looted Germany in WW I and the United States looted Japan and Germany after WW II. This debt spending is only buying time to bribe enough Americans to not riot. The United States has nothing left in it. China bought all the scrap metal of value and China returned zero quality goods which are falling apart daily. The war which is coming to America, already arrived with Coronavirus. The accounts will have to be balanced in this created depression, and that means a big war.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944484
07/27/20 03:12 PM
07/27/20 03:12 PM
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 15,365
Eastern Shore of Maryland
HobbieTrapper Offline
"Chippendale Trapper"
HobbieTrapper  Offline
"Chippendale Trapper"

Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 15,365
Eastern Shore of Maryland
lol

Dope must still be affordable.


"Forgiveness".......because there is no Time Machine.

-Goofy-
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944673
07/27/20 06:10 PM
07/27/20 06:10 PM
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 425
Wis. up North!
2020 Offline
trapper
2020  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 425
Wis. up North!
not complaining but I can't FIGURE out why the Markets are still robust, you would think based off all this dept and out of work that the Market would be in a free fall ? but I'm not a wall street guy, but it makes no sense to me ????

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944729
07/27/20 07:08 PM
07/27/20 07:08 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
trapper
Steven 49er  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,628
mn north of blakely
Three reasons, the stimulus plans, quantitative easing and the FED buying corporate junk bonds. It won't be long until the FED starts buying equities

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944744
07/27/20 07:21 PM
07/27/20 07:21 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
G
Gary Benson Offline
trapper
Gary Benson  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 10,208
Sandhills Nebraska
Star Flakes mentioned Doritos. I refuse to pay $5 for a bag of chips of any kind. Inflated with air, two potatoes in each bag, the bag costs more than the product inside. Aint happenin'.


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944755
07/27/20 07:30 PM
07/27/20 07:30 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
trapper
Kansas Cat  Offline
trapper
K

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 833
Kansas
Has the FED ever purchased equities?

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944761
07/27/20 07:38 PM
07/27/20 07:38 PM
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 22,489
williams,mn
trapper les Offline
trapper
trapper les  Offline
trapper

Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 22,489
williams,mn
I have never had so much work.


"Those who hammer their guns into plowshares will plow for those who do not."
Re: Recession [Re: trapper les] #6944764
07/27/20 07:42 PM
07/27/20 07:42 PM
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,701
MN
D
Donnersurvivor Offline
trapper
Donnersurvivor  Offline
trapper
D

Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,701
MN
Originally Posted by trapper les
I have never had so much work.

we are busy as well. Not buying equipment though, do not trust this economy and phone calls to continue into spring.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944767
07/27/20 07:47 PM
07/27/20 07:47 PM
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,028
chelsea,wi
keets Offline
trapper
keets  Offline
trapper

Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,028
chelsea,wi
me too , Les....2X the work I can even get done


2014 goals
(1) HAVE FUN
(2) TRY TO MAKE SOME MONEY
Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944774
07/27/20 07:55 PM
07/27/20 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
Has the FED ever purchased equities?



No but they have certainly made things conducive to everyone else doing so. That's where the two current acronyms come from. FOMO..fear of missing out ......and TINA.......There is no alternative


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944781
07/27/20 08:08 PM
07/27/20 08:08 PM
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Thanks White. I am an avid reader of 49er's posts but I don't necessarily agree that the FED will purchase common stock. Purchasing "junk" debt is just a method to get otherwise good enterprises from here to there, if you catch my drift. I agree about the conducive part. I couldn't buy shares quickly enough when I saw what the powers that be were prepared to do back in March. My only regret is that I didn't have enough dry powder to deploy.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944793
07/27/20 08:13 PM
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Yes I do not think the Fed will buy equities. Japan started doing that in 2010 and the results have been disastrous.

So far they have only used 10 billion of the 750 billion allocated for corporate bond purchases. I don't think they will use the majority of that.

There is really no good reason that they should buy stocks....even though Yellin brought it up a few years ago


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944797
07/27/20 08:19 PM
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Ah yes. The decade that wasn't. 10 out of 750! Wasn't aware of that.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944802
07/27/20 08:25 PM
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Yep. The Fed balance sheet.......although greatly expanded, has actually started to stabilize and decline slightly.

The big difference between the Fed buying bonds as opposed to stocks is that bonds eventually mature and the liability will roll off the balance sheet. But with stocks...........once they buy them they hold them forever or until they decide to dump them. You can imagine the impact that would have on the market.

The Bank of Japan owns 3/4 of all stock ETF's on the Japanese market. They don't dare sell any of it at this point


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944812
07/27/20 08:36 PM
07/27/20 08:36 PM
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"Geneva - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its financial outlook for the global air transport industry showing that airlines are expected to lose $84.3 billion in 2020 for a net profit margin of -20.1%. Revenues will fall 50% to $419 billion from $838 billion in 2019. In 2021, losses are expected to be cut to $15.8 billion as revenues rise to $598 billion.

Financially, 2020 will go down as the worst year in the history of aviation. On average, every day of this year will add $230 million to industry losses. In total thats a loss of $84.3 billion. It means thatbased on an estimate of 2.2 billion passengers this yearairlines will lose $37.54 per passenger. Thats why government financial relief was and remains crucial as airlines burn through cash, said Alexandre de Juniac, IATAs Director General and CEO."

"The global cruise industry expected to carry 32 million passengers and take in $71 billion in revenue this year. That will fall by at least 50% this year, says Euromonitor International, a consulting firm. It took the industry three years to recover from the 2009 recession; this time, it will take longer, Euromonitor analyst Alex Jarman said."

Last edited by Dirt; 07/27/20 08:42 PM.

Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944823
07/27/20 08:43 PM
07/27/20 08:43 PM
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I own a little Delta. Some of the airlines will survive. I figured Delta has as good a chance as anyone. People will eventually start flying again. All apologies to AOC! I am sure she is just as convinced that people will switch to electric train travel between the US and Europe.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944831
07/27/20 08:49 PM
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Hard and fast rule for me is NEVER EVER buy into an airline.

Probably Delta will come out of this some day. But what are the opportunity costs in interim ?

You have more courage than I do


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944843
07/27/20 08:57 PM
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That is probably a good rule. In my defense, I bought it at what I thought was an inexpensive price! Next time it runs to 36 I will probably sell and look elsewhere.

Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944847
07/27/20 09:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
I own a little Delta. Some of the airlines will survive. I figured Delta has as good a chance as anyone. People will eventually start flying again. All apologies to AOC! I am sure she is just as convinced that people will switch to electric train travel between the US and Europe.

I wish she would take that train.


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944860
07/27/20 09:10 PM
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A wish we can all get behind brother. Better yet, schedule the DNC leadership conference on the trip. All aboard!

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944861
07/27/20 09:10 PM
07/27/20 09:10 PM
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We are seeing something interesting here in Oklahoma. When oil prices are up and the oilfield crowd is flush with cash, land prices rise. Those guys are now broke but land prices are going up again. Likely a function of interest rates, but I also think there is a distrust of the stock market and people are looking to park their money in something tangible. And, the housing market is booming too.

Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944862
07/27/20 09:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
That is probably a good rule. In my defense, I bought it at what I thought was an inexpensive price! Next time it runs to 36 I will probably sell and look elsewhere.



OUCH !
I certainly would laugh But if I did it would go on up to 86


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944876
07/27/20 09:20 PM
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Probably has nothing to do with what is happening in the cities. Don't worry, when enough city folks escape to God's country, they will screw it up too. If you live anywhere near a large metropolitan area, you already know what I mean. I have been in the oil business my whole life. Oil guys buying land is a recent development. They never needed to in the past. When oil prices are high again, they will be in the land buying business again.

Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944881
07/27/20 09:22 PM
07/27/20 09:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
Probably has nothing to do with what is happening in the cities. Don't worry, when enough city folks escape to God's country, they will screw it up too. If you live anywhere near a large metropolitan area, you already know what I mean. I have been in the oil business my whole life. Oil guys buying land is a recent development. They never needed to in the past. When oil prices are high again, they will be in the land buying business again.


I want them to stay low. I still have a neighbor's place (or two) I want to buy.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944882
07/27/20 09:22 PM
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No I think the airline problems are strictly related to the virus

Do you think oil will ever be "high" again ?


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Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6944890
07/27/20 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by white17
No I think the airline problems are strictly related to the virus

Do you think oil will ever be "high" again ?


Good question. Short of some major geopolitical disruption, I don't think we'll see $100 oil in the next ten or 15 years.

Supply is just too great. I would be perfectly happy with $60-$70 oil. My clients would be too.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944894
07/27/20 09:31 PM
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That's my thinking too. And the further that day is in the future, the greater the chance of some alt-energy breakthrough on battery technology or hydrogen powered vehicles.

I think if Biden wins, there could be an all-out assault on fracking.That could push the price up considerably


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944896
07/27/20 09:34 PM
07/27/20 09:34 PM
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Yes. Unless it is legislated out of existence or replaced by an alternative. The demand destruction caused by the virus will eventually disappear. OPEC will return to full production and the US production surge will subside. The increase in production associated with the horizontal drilling surge is a temporary bump. There is no secondary or tertiary production associated with the "shale" boom. These events will take time, but oil will be high again.

Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6944905
07/27/20 09:38 PM
07/27/20 09:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
Yes. Unless it is legislated out of existence or replaced by an alternative. The demand destruction caused by the virus will eventually disappear. OPEC will return to full production and the US production surge will subside. The increase in production associated with the horizontal drilling surge is a temporary bump. There is no secondary or tertiary production associated with the "shale" boom. These events will take time, but oil will be high again.


Agree with you and White. Good points.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944906
07/27/20 09:39 PM
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It makes it tough when the OPEC cost of production is so much lower than ours. It would also be nice if we had a refinery or three that was more flexible in the grades of crude they can handle.


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Re: Recession [Re: keets] #6944910
07/27/20 09:42 PM
07/27/20 09:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Donnersurvivor
Originally Posted by trapper les
I have never had so much work.

we are busy as well. Not buying equipment though, do not trust this economy and phone calls to continue into spring.


Originally Posted by keets
me too , Les....2X the work I can even get done


Same here. I know it doesn't mean much because as a small business owner my companies are just a tiny drop in a big ocean. But, I've been busier the last two-plus years than ever before in my forty-plus year-long career in residential construction/remodeling and property management. So are all of the general contractors and sub-contractions I know.

I remember sitting in the office praying the phone would ring during the Obama years. Now I hope it doesn't. I've been subbing stuff out more than ever before and I'm still turning customers away left and right and i hate doing that.

I tell them I'm booked for at least nine months to a year and some of them tell me they'll wait. I suspect they got similar results from other contractors.

From my very narrow perspective, the economy is just fine. And if it tanks tomorrow, I'll still have work for nine months to year. grin


Eh...wot?

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944919
07/27/20 09:48 PM
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Refinery retrofits are easy fixes. The moronic oil policies of the left are the oil market wet dreams of the Middle East and the gasoline pump nightmares of the US motorist.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944927
07/27/20 09:52 PM
07/27/20 09:52 PM
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AMEN !

I see there is growing interest in hydrogen powered heavy trucking.

I was disappointed a few years ago when T Boone was hot & heavy into natgas filling stations. That didn't last long. Too bad because we have a lifetime supply at these demand levels


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944930
07/27/20 09:56 PM
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The political left was 100% in favor of natural gas until the oil industry found and developed hundreds of years of supply and then suddenly it fell out of favor. Very strange. Anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of chemistry knows it is the cleanest fuel available.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6944935
07/27/20 10:01 PM
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Right ! Other than nukes.


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Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6945017
07/27/20 11:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
Has the FED ever purchased equities?


Before this year had the FED ever purchased corporate bonds? I think they will buy equities, I think they will throw everything including the kitchen sink to avoid what is coming. I don't think it will happen in the next 6 to 12 months.

If DXY drops another 15 20 points oil could make a run at $100 granted OPEC would have to make cuts.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6945281
07/28/20 10:25 AM
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Yes this dropping dollar could push up oil a little bit. Metals probably. Foreign stocks most likely and US stocks that earn the majority of their profits outside the US.


If the Fed bought equities, what do you see as the result and who would be the beneficiaries ?


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Re: Recession [Re: Cos] #6945301
07/28/20 10:44 AM
07/28/20 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Cos
Weve either fallen off the edge of the cliff and dont know it yet or are riding on some big bubbles IMO.

Help wanted signs at just about every business around here. My wife does hiring for a company with 180 employees and cant keep or fill positions right now to save her life. Strange times

Why would people want to return to work when they are getting more money with unemployment and $600 a week than they were earning at work? Thankfully, that will end. The new package proposed by the republicans would provide $200 per week instead of $600 like the democrats want. The republicans want a tax cut for workers. The democrats don't.

I know a few people who are upset that they might have to return to work. I guess they think this free money should go on forever.


If you're being treated poorly by the police, try not breaking the law and see if that helps.
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6945308
07/28/20 10:54 AM
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Why should workers get a tax cut? They got jobs and money.


Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: Trapper7] #6945361
07/28/20 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Trapper7
Originally Posted by Cos
Weve either fallen off the edge of the cliff and dont know it yet or are riding on some big bubbles IMO.

Help wanted signs at just about every business around here. My wife does hiring for a company with 180 employees and cant keep or fill positions right now to save her life. Strange times

Why would people want to return to work when they are getting more money with unemployment and $600 a week than they were earning at work? Thankfully, that will end. The new package proposed by the republicans would provide $200 per week instead of $600 like the democrats want. The republicans want a tax cut for workers. The democrats don't.

I know a few people who are upset that they might have to return to work. I guess they think this free money should go on forever.


Agreed on the $600 being a bad idea. Dont know anything about the tax cuts.

Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6947259
07/29/20 11:11 PM
07/29/20 11:11 PM
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Originally Posted by white17
..


If the Fed bought equities, what do you see as the result and who would be the beneficiaries ?


That's a good question. Wall Street? Corporations? Pension plans? Personally I don't think anyone would benefit in the long run except the Federal Reserve.

I'm of the opinion there is good odds that the markets will retest March lows, if it blows through those lows I don't see how the FED can not start buying equities.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6947569
07/30/20 10:09 AM
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Well it sure hasn't helped anyone in Japan or Australia. In fact, since the BOJ started buying stocks, the overall price level has declined. I suspect that MAY be due in part to people being afraid the BOJ will dump shares back on the market ...further depressing prices.

Individuals COULD benefit psychologically because they may feel more wealthy, IF their portfolio value increases. The Fed would like that because people may be more inclined to spend. I think that people may be more inclined to sell.

I think the greater fool theory may emphasize itself. If the Fed tries to drive up asset prices when the economy is collapsing, I think more people would take advantage of having a willing buyer.

Mutual funds and holders of mutual funds may benefit initially, on paper because many of them must continuously buy or sell shares in order to stay within proscribed limits of the fund. Some companies share prices will rise while others fall. The funds will need to maintain the correct allocations.

The only true beneficiary that I can see might be some public companies who wish to engage in equity financing for some individual reason. IF their share price increases, they can borrow more cheaply than if it falls.

I think long before we see the Fed buying stocks, we will see the Fed using yield curve manipulation in order to control credit and liquidity without further expanding its own balance sheet. I wouldn't be surprised to see that within the next twelve months.

I also think it would be a terrible thing not just for the US but for the world.


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948515
07/30/20 10:56 PM
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I agree that buying equities would be terrible, I also think buying MBS's, buying corporate junk bonds, QE, artificially low interest rates and anything else that manipulates the free market is terrible.

It's gonna be a heck of a ride.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948517
07/30/20 10:58 PM
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No argument from me.

The bigger problem is how do they unwind it ?? I don't know and I don't think they have any better answer than I do,


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948523
07/30/20 11:05 PM
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They can't unwind it. The world is addicted to cheap capital.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948525
07/30/20 11:09 PM
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True story AND the world is addicted to the US 10 year treasury note as a proxy for "risk free" investment. If they manipulate the yield curve.......that correlation goes away


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948531
07/30/20 11:16 PM
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That correlation has already gone away, the world hasn't realized it yet.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948542
07/30/20 11:27 PM
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Well at this point the market is still setting rates. Not the Fed. Let's hope it stays that way


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6948594
07/31/20 12:27 AM
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Faith in the dollar is keeping this chucker afloat. I am probably wrong as I keep moving my currency into more tangible assets i.e. Cattle, land ,food metals and what I consider a fun life. P.S. May not be suitable for others and minor aged folks!

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Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6949400
07/31/20 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by white17
Well at this point the market is still setting rates. Not the Fed. Let's hope it stays that way


Sub 3 percent 30 year fixed mortgage rates is set by the market?That's lower than inflation and taxes. 10 year tbonds are below the rate of inflation.

No wonder pensions and Social Security are going broke.

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6949984
07/31/20 10:39 PM
07/31/20 10:39 PM
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Yes I agree. We have a nominal rate on the 10 year treasury of around 0.55% but in terms of REAL rates we are negative.

But YES the market is actually setting these rates. But the fed is currently discussing actually pegging treasury rates at certain levels. They know that they can't control the bond market which is many times larger than the stock market. But if they can dictate rates for each term....3,5,7, 10 year notes..then they will have neutered the bond vigilantes.

The really dangerous thing about that is the market relies on price discovery..and thus rates, through trading. If that is gone then no one really can calculate the cost of risk


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: Steven 49er] #6950427
08/01/20 11:14 AM
08/01/20 11:14 AM
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Ninety posts on recession related items and I found none that talked about 30-40 million Americans or the 100s of millions of people around the world not working or creating services, materials or wealth. To me it shows how far the split is between money and work in our modern world. Every time we go through these economic meltdowns it seems we transfer more monies to fewer and fewer people. If businesses just want to hold cash and assets maybe it is wise for governments to print money to feed those that capitalistic businesses don't want to hire. We as a nation were not interested in paying off 3-4 trillion of debt in the 90s when we had surplus funds, what makes us think we have any interest in doing so with 1 trillion deficits and 25 plus trillion of debt.

Bryce

Re: Recession [Re: Steven 49er] #6950458
08/01/20 11:56 AM
08/01/20 11:56 AM
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Armpit, ak
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Originally Posted by Steven 49er
I agree that buying equities would be terrible, I also think buying MBS's, buying corporate junk bonds, QE, artificially low interest rates and anything else that manipulates the free market is terrible.

It's gonna be a heck of a ride.


Don't forget the worse government free market manipulating programs( Federal and State) that manipulate the housing market. Those seem to always end poorly. Repeat. crazy


Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950467
08/01/20 12:13 PM
08/01/20 12:13 PM
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McGrath, AK
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Rising unemployment was mentioned on page one.

I think we have a situation where people don't want to work rather than businesses that don't want to hire. Many businesses can't get their prior employees to return because of the $600 giveaway from government.

I don't believe anyone honestly thinks the national debt can or will ever be paid off


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950483
08/01/20 12:24 PM
08/01/20 12:24 PM
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Armpit, ak
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It would not surprise me if the unemployed numbers are low. How many people are being payed (officially employed) by their employers from the government program to pay your employees that don't work because your business has been partly closed to closed?

This corona shut down is a disaster here.


Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950820
08/01/20 07:03 PM
08/01/20 07:03 PM
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The debt can't be paid off. That will have a deflationary effect on the money supply.

Bryce you don't suppose that what we have been talking about the last 30 pages causes what you speak of. The system is rigged and it won't change until we go away from a debt backed currency. In fact it will get worse. Those capitalistic businesses you speak of stopped being true capitalists a long time ago. Government needs to get the heck out of markets.

Re: Recession [Re: white17] #6950877
08/01/20 08:02 PM
08/01/20 08:02 PM
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Originally Posted by white17
Rising unemployment was mentioned on page one.

I think we have a situation where people don't want to work rather than businesses that don't want to hire. Many businesses can't get their prior employees to return because of the $600 giveaway from government.

I don't believe anyone honestly thinks the national debt can or will ever be paid off



THIS IS IT


2014 goals
(1) HAVE FUN
(2) TRY TO MAKE SOME MONEY
Re: Recession [Re: Steven 49er] #6950896
08/01/20 08:15 PM
08/01/20 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Steven 49er
The debt can't be paid off. That will have a deflationary effect on the money supply.

Bryce you don't suppose that what we have been talking about the last 30 pages causes what you speak of. The system is rigged and it won't change until we go away from a debt backed currency. In fact it will get worse. Those capitalistic businesses you speak of stopped being true capitalists a long time ago. Government needs to get the heck out of markets.


It is rigged. I will change when we have a global reset and global currency. unless something really changes, we're headed that way.

Last edited by Sprung & Rusty; 08/01/20 08:16 PM.
Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950910
08/01/20 08:27 PM
08/01/20 08:27 PM
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white17 Offline

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We DO have a global currency. It's called the dollar. I have been on 5 continents and never found a place that wouldn't rather have US dollars instead of local currency


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Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6950919
08/01/20 08:40 PM
08/01/20 08:40 PM
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Yes. I haven't been anywhere the dollar wasn't welcome at the local bank. I very seldom saw an advertised exchange rate for Chinese currency.

Re: Recession [Re: Kansas Cat] #6951003
08/01/20 09:27 PM
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So a debt backed currency is why a laid off hospitality worker can't work. In some states they don't even qualify for assistance because their income is too low and then they get hammered because they would rather stay home! Many were not considered UE because the employers used the funds to keep them on staff even if they were not working. We will see if the hospitality places open up in mass early this month.

Bryce

Re: Recession [Re: rex123] #6951021
08/01/20 09:39 PM
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I really doubt that will happen !


Mean As Nails
Re: Recession [Re: bblwi] #6951024
08/01/20 09:40 PM
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Originally Posted by bblwi
So a debt backed currency is why a laid off hospitality worker can't work. In some states they don't even qualify for assistance because their income is too low and then they get hammered because they would rather stay home! Many were not considered UE because the employers used the funds to keep them on staff even if they were not working. We will see if the hospitality places open up in mass early this month.

Bryce


You understand there is a season in the tourist business? You miss the season and you are SOL.


Who is John Galt?
Re: Recession [Re: Yes sir] #6951030
08/01/20 09:43 PM
08/01/20 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Yes sir
everything is looking great i dont see anything to worry about


Futures so bright, I gotta wear shades. cool

Re: Recession [Re: bblwi] #6951946
08/02/20 07:58 PM
08/02/20 07:58 PM
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Originally Posted by bblwi
So a debt backed currency is why a laid off hospitality worker can't work. In some states they don't even qualify for assistance because their income is too low and then they get hammered because they would rather stay home! Many were not considered UE because the employers used the funds to keep them on staff even if they were not working. We will see if the hospitality places open up in mass early this month.

Bryce

\\
\
Those hospitality workers can't work because governors won't let them.

Debt currencies consolidate the wealth into the hands of a few. Socialists blame it on capitalism, what they don't realize in this day in age it's becoming a trend to socialize the risk and privatize the profits. That is not capitalism and both sides are guilty.

Capitalism isn't compassionate nor should it be.

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