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Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953840
08/04/20 12:49 PM
08/04/20 12:49 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,728
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
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Steven 49er  Offline
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mn north of blakely
Russia has positioned herself pretty well for what is coming down the pike.

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Chancey] #6953848
08/04/20 01:29 PM
08/04/20 01:29 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 30,117
McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by Chancey
I am ignorant in the stock market and world markets, but am trying to learn and enjoy reading posts like this to see everyone's thoughts and try to educate myself.

White 17, Steven 49er, and Dirt I respect ya'lls opinions on this topic and others....What do ya'll think about this article regarding Russia and the Dollar? I thought it was interesting, but was wondering if ya'll thought there is anything to it? Thanks in advance. Chancey

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/478865-imf-great-depression-russia/



Just a couple of quick observations:

Note that the article claims that Russia is well positioned in terms of gold and "CASH". Pay attention to the fact that they do not specify what that cash is. It is NOT Rubles..it is dollars. If dollars are going to be worthless, why is Russia holding them as reserves ?


Russia's debt to gdp ratio is much lower than that of the US. That's a good thing....on the surface. The question should be WHY is that true ? The answer is because Russia defaulted on all her debt in 1998 and wiped it out.

RT.com is a state owned, state controlled, propaganda organ of Putin. It ranks right up there with the Russian defense ministry as a strategic asset.
I suspect it is more effective in duping Russian citizens than those in the West.


Russia's economy is just slightly larger than that of California .....and doesn't even rank in the top ten in the world.

We certainly have our own problems here but I would choose to be here rather than Russia when/if things go south.

I would view everything from that source with a critical eye.............just like I would with the New York Times ! laugh


Mean As Nails
Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953864
08/04/20 01:52 PM
08/04/20 01:52 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,728
mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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Steven 49er  Offline
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mn north of blakely
By here you mean Alaska or me in northern MN, if things go south, the highly populated areas will get ugly.

The reason Russia holds reserves in dollars is because it's the reserve currency of the world, if it wants to trade with it's partners that's what it has to use. A large part of the reason Russia's economy is small is it didn't base it on debt. California is going to get steam rolled when the dollar crashes, russia not so much.

I agree, RT is a dubious source.

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953866
08/04/20 01:53 PM
08/04/20 01:53 PM
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Posts: 6,728
mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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Steven 49er  Offline
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mn north of blakely
Ken, did you look at metals today?

Gold over 2000., silver will break 26 and hold today. It's a good day to own miner's stock. When to exit is the question.

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953870
08/04/20 01:57 PM
08/04/20 01:57 PM
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Diggerman Offline
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If you all really believe that the dollar is depreciating and massive inflation is happening, why are you not borrowing money to buy land and such? Should be a no-brainer right?

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953871
08/04/20 02:01 PM
08/04/20 02:01 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 2,119
South Dakota
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Hydropillar Online content
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White 17, Steven 49er, and Dirt I respect ya'lls opinions on this topic and others.
x2

will they eventually raise interest to try and combat inflation??
im not sure how to position myself .... but im afraid were in for ruff times..


The only place you find free cheese is in a mousetrap !
Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953877
08/04/20 02:11 PM
08/04/20 02:11 PM
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mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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mn north of blakely
Don't look to me for advice, I'm a perma-bull when it comes to metals. My vision is contrarian to the status quo. I live and invest like things will continue as is but take some precautions. I try to minimize my debt and my ratio of what I would call sound investments is a bit higher that most recommend. Many say a good idea of Precious Metal related investments in 5 percent. of your worth. I think given the current situation it should be higher.
'
If we see rampant inflation they will have to raise interest rates. The question in my mind is how can they with the amount of debt in the world. Governments will have to default.

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Hydropillar] #6953878
08/04/20 02:11 PM
08/04/20 02:11 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 30,117
McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by Hydropillar
White 17, Steven 49er, and Dirt I respect ya'lls opinions on this topic and others.
x2

will they eventually raise interest to try and combat inflation??
im not sure how to position myself .... but im afraid were in for ruff times..



The Fed is in the process of formalizing a change in how they approach this subject ( because obviously they have to try something).

As you no doubt recall, the standard practice has been to raise rates when inflation is approaching their target level.
They now intend to allow inflation to "overshoot" ( their word) the target in order to "make up for" (their words) the months that it has fallen short of the target.

This may also prevent a market sell-off and the Fed having to backpedal as happened 6 months or so back.


Mean As Nails
Re: Depression is coming [Re: Diggerman] #6953881
08/04/20 02:15 PM
08/04/20 02:15 PM
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Armpit, ak
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Dirt Offline
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Armpit, ak
Originally Posted by Diggerman
If you all really believe that the dollar is depreciating and massive inflation is happening, why are you not borrowing money to buy land and such? Should be a no-brainer right?


I don't need any more land. Never been in debt. I bet it sucks. smile


Who is John Galt?
Re: Depression is coming [Re: Dirt] #6953887
08/04/20 02:23 PM
08/04/20 02:23 PM
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Diggerman Offline
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Originally Posted by Dirt
Originally Posted by Diggerman
If you all really believe that the dollar is depreciating and massive inflation is happening, why are you not borrowing money to buy land and such? Should be a no-brainer right?


I don't need any more land. Never been in debt. I bet it sucks. smile

The question was , if you were to position your self positively for a weekening dollar and high inflation, with low interest rates, wouldn't borrowing money to buy land be a no-brainer?

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Diggerman] #6953902
08/04/20 03:01 PM
08/04/20 03:01 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 30,117
McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by Diggerman
Originally Posted by Dirt

I don't need any more land. Never been in debt. I bet it sucks. smile

The question was , if you were to position your self positively for a weekening dollar and high inflation, with low interest rates, wouldn't borrowing money to buy land be a no-brainer?



I think before one could answer that question, you would need to have a concrete idea of the outcome at some point in the near future.

I would NOT buy land just to buy land. You can't eat it. It is horribly illiquid. You wouldn't trade an acre of land for a cup of sugar or a dozen eggs. You couldn't sell it in a timely fashion if you needed to.

If high inflation is what you envision, then common stocks and even some metals, is the way to prepare for it IMO. Along with tools and staple items. And as little cash as you can possibly hold


Mean As Nails
Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953904
08/04/20 03:04 PM
08/04/20 03:04 PM
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Posts: 6,794
Armpit, ak
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Dirt Offline
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IMO it is not a no-brainer. Land here comes with property taxes. That is an expense.


Who is John Galt?
Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953910
08/04/20 03:14 PM
08/04/20 03:14 PM
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Posts: 1,136
Central Texas
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Chancey Offline
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Central Texas
Thank you for the responses Gentlemen. Something has got to give with all this printing of money and no body working. I'm just not sure what to expect.

This guy thinks Deflation is coming. Video below is kind of corny, but I think he makes some good points on our current situation. What do ya'll think?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbaXyiCITw0

So if this guy is correct and we are soon to experience deflation rather than inflation......then how are we to best prepare ourselves and our families for it?

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953923
08/04/20 03:38 PM
08/04/20 03:38 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 30,117
McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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McGrath, AK
I agree it's corny and there are some obvious errors, but in general I agree that deflation is far more serious than inflation.

It is currently happening in places like Brazil and South Africa where commodity prices are collapsing at the same time the virus is on the rampage.


Mean As Nails
Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953963
08/04/20 04:08 PM
08/04/20 04:08 PM
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,622
SE Minn
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Rat Masterson Offline
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If the dollar collapses the country will implode, no one will be working because they can't get paid, everything will grind to halt. Let's be honest if the dollar becomes worthless having some gold or silver is not going to save you. Bartering will be the currency of the day so you better have something to trade that you can eat or wear or drink.

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953965
08/04/20 04:09 PM
08/04/20 04:09 PM
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Sandhills Nebraska
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Gary Benson Offline
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I'm not very smart but I don't like borrowing money for anything. Interest sucks, and if you can't pay taxes on land or structures, you lose it. At some point, I see valuation and tax on farmland being so high that nobody can afford to own it..except the Government.


I know I'm paranoid......but am I paranoid ENOUGH???
Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6953988
08/04/20 04:24 PM
08/04/20 04:24 PM
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Posts: 30,117
McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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One more thing to ask yourself.

Lets say you are a citizen of a foreign country and that you posses a reasonable amount of capital. Not rich but not destitute either.

Where will you invest your money ? Would you choose to invest in China, India, The EU or the US ?

That is exactly what is happening in underdeveloped nations right now. People with capital are getting it out of their local economies...where restrictions have not yet been imposed..like China........and they are investing it in US assets. Even US Treasuries pay better than what is available at home in many instances are are much safer politically.


Mean As Nails
Re: Depression is coming [Re: Rat Masterson] #6954049
08/04/20 05:24 PM
08/04/20 05:24 PM
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mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Offline
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mn north of blakely
Originally Posted by Rat Masterson
If the dollar collapses the country will implode, no one will be working because they can't get paid, everything will grind to halt. Let's be honest if the dollar becomes worthless having some gold or silver is not going to save you. Bartering will be the currency of the day so you better have something to trade that you can eat or wear or drink.


Dave, there has to be a medium of exchange. Bartering may be the means in the first stages but eventually there has to be a medium. Gold has had value since before Christ walked the earth, societies have risen and fell many times since and yet gold is still a valid medium of exchange.

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Gary Benson] #6954061
08/04/20 05:33 PM
08/04/20 05:33 PM
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Diggerman Offline
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Originally Posted by Gary Benson
I'm not very smart but I don't like borrowing money for anything. Interest sucks, and if you can't pay taxes on land or structures, you lose it. At some point, I see valuation and tax on farmland being so high that nobody can afford to own it..except the Government.

I am not an advocate of borrowing money, I do and have done so more lately because of the low interest rates. I would not hesitate to borrow money for land if I found some at a deal. If you believe that we are in for a period of high inflation, then taking out a long term low interest loan and purchasing something "real", with out to much holding costs would be prudent. Without holding something that will appreciate along with inflation you will be losing ground.
Also, that cash you have in the freezer, well, what happens if the govt starts printing yellow money and gives you 30 days to convert your green money over, WITH a limit of say 5G's?

Re: Depression is coming [Re: Finster] #6954111
08/04/20 05:56 PM
08/04/20 05:56 PM
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cfowler Online content
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I agree with basic necessities first; Food, Water, Security. Barter and trade will replace fiat currency for most. Gold and silver will have their place, but a set of skills might prove to be more valuable. One thing is for sure, if the US dollar collapses, Id want to be holding some gold and silver instead of dollars.


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