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Trafalgar Polls #7024093
10/22/20 12:18 PM
10/22/20 12:18 PM
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,421
Yukon
Y
yukon254 Offline OP
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yukon254  Offline OP
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Joined: Dec 2008
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Yukon
Anyone watching these polls? They got it right last time. Any predictions this time? National fake media polls show Biden ahead...


do unto others as you would have them do unto you

www.grizzlycreeklodge.com
Re: Trafalgar Polls [Re: yukon254] #7024097
10/22/20 12:24 PM
10/22/20 12:24 PM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 11,180
Armpit, ak
D
Dirt Offline
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Dirt  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 11,180
Armpit, ak
Originally Posted by yukon254
Anyone watching these polls? They got it right last time. Any predictions this time? National fake media polls show Biden ahead...


Yes, last time they were about 4 points high. So subtract 4 points and that should be where things are roughly compared to last time. Good Luck!


Who is John Galt?
Re: Trafalgar Polls [Re: yukon254] #7024098
10/22/20 12:25 PM
10/22/20 12:25 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 352
Ohio
M
Mike C Offline
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Mike C  Offline
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Ohio
They and IBD were the only ones to correctly predict the 2016 election. They also got FLA Gov and Sen right in 2018. They use a different model that they say brings out the hidden Trump vote. Right now they have Trump getting 270-280 electoral votes.

Re: Trafalgar Polls [Re: yukon254] #7024099
10/22/20 12:27 PM
10/22/20 12:27 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 352
Ohio
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Mike C Offline
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Mike C  Offline
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Ohio
Dirt, from the data I have seen, they may poll 1/2 - 1% higher. Have not seen any where they were off by 4. Which ones did you see that I might have missed?

Re: Trafalgar Polls [Re: yukon254] #7024106
10/22/20 12:39 PM
10/22/20 12:39 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 352
Ohio
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Mike C Offline
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Mike C  Offline
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Ohio
For perspective, right now Real Clear Politics average of polls has Biden up 7.8% in Michigan while Trafalgar has Trump up by 1%.

In 2016 RCP had Clinton up 5%, Trafalgar had Trump up 2% - He ended up winning by 0.3%

Re: Trafalgar Polls [Re: yukon254] #7024108
10/22/20 12:41 PM
10/22/20 12:41 PM
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,960
Northern Nevada
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Bob Offline
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I believe that there may be a lot more trump votes that don’t get counted. When everyone on the left screams that you’re a racist, sexist, piece of trash if you vote for trump, a lot of people who are going to vote for him won’t openly admit it.


"I have two guns, one for each of ya."
Re: Trafalgar Polls [Re: Mike C] #7024119
10/22/20 12:59 PM
10/22/20 12:59 PM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 11,180
Armpit, ak
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Dirt Offline
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Dirt  Offline
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Armpit, ak
Originally Posted by Mike C
Dirt, from the data I have seen, they may poll 1/2 - 1% higher. Have not seen any where they were off by 4. Which ones did you see that I might have missed?


Florida for one.

That seems to be the worse I can find so I'll change my answer to take off 2 points. smile

Last edited by Dirt; 10/22/20 01:10 PM.

Who is John Galt?
Re: Trafalgar Polls [Re: yukon254] #7024175
10/22/20 02:01 PM
10/22/20 02:01 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 352
Ohio
M
Mike C Offline
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Mike C  Offline
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 352
Ohio
Yeah, looking further I will have to change mine to 1% - 2% smile

Re: Trafalgar Polls [Re: yukon254] #7024273
10/22/20 04:13 PM
10/22/20 04:13 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 2,445
revillo, sd
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cohunt Offline
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revillo, sd
National results will favor Biden but will not determine the next president. Tuesday evening the state of North Carolina followed(likely) by Florida will give earliest results with real meaning. Trump likely MUST win Fla and best for him to win both. MN, Iowa, WI, MI. Ohio, and PA are the group of near neighbors that will determine outcome if FLA and NC go Trumps way. Late results from Arizona MIGHT prove pivotal if some strange combo of the preceding states leaves the final outcome very close. Each state win can be by a wide margin or razor thin, makes no difference.

Last edited by cohunt; 10/22/20 09:20 PM.
Re: Trafalgar Polls [Re: yukon254] #7025104
10/23/20 11:27 AM
10/23/20 11:27 AM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 11,180
Armpit, ak
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Dirt Offline
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Dirt  Offline
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D

Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 11,180
Armpit, ak
Speaking of Florida

latest poll, not Trafalgar

Summary of Scientific Results:
For the November General Election, have you already voted, do you plan
to vote by mail, plan to vote in person or do you not plan to vote?
Already voted
: 60.3%
Vote by mail
: 8.5%
Vote in person
: 31.2%
If the Presidential election were held today, and the candidates were
Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?
.................................. TOTAL.............ALREADY VOTED............... PLAN TO VOTE
Donald Trump ............ :47.4%...................... 39.3%................................ 59.6%
Joe Biden ................... 48.9%...................... 58.2% ................................ 34.8%
Third party ................. 1.9% ........................ 1.4% ................................ 2.6%
Undecided / Won’t say.. 1.8%...................... 1.1% ............................... 3.0%


Who is John Galt?
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