Is there any way to predict when to lock in an interest rate? I don't want to miss out, but I don't want to have regrets. How much can happen in 24 hours?

From Barron's 4 days ago;


Mortgage Rates Hit Another New Low. Why They Could Rise This Year.

Shaina Mishkin
Jan. 7, 2021 5:40 pm ET



Mortgage rates hit another historic low this week, according to Freddie Mac—but don’t expect ultralow rates to last forever.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.65% for the week ending Jan. 7, 2021, a new low, according to the company’s weekly survey of mortgage rates. In a release, Sam Khater, the company’s chief economist, said recent low rates have been offset by climbing home prices, challenging home affordability.

Home affordability emerged as a worry in the second half of 2020, as economists warned that swiftly rising prices were making it more difficult for some would-be buyers to enter the market, even amid historically low mortgage rates. High buyer demand, likely driven in part by shifts brought about by the pandemic, as well as historically low interest rates and shifting demographics, and a low supply of homes for sale have contributed to prices that climbed at the fastest pace in years in October, the latest month for which Case-Shiller index data is available.

But further pressure on home affordability could come as mortgage rates rise, Khater wrote in the release. The economist said he expects rates to increase modestly throughout 2021 as the economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic and vaccinations start to take effect, Khater wrote in an email to Barron’s. While Khater noted a rise in rates is dependent on vaccine distribution, he said rates will likely rise slowly, with the greatest increase in the second half of the year.

There was some talk about the Fed trying to reduce it's balance sheet recently

Really can't go anywhere but up at this moment.

Pike I agree but how much time does a guy have before it makes a big jump. I was offered 2.75% today. Is it worth waiting for 2.5% again????

Lock in as soon as possible. Thankfully I locked in at 2.5%. I could've locked in at 2.25% but I would have to buy a point.
My prediction is rates will start climbing after the 20th and within a year economy will be tanking.

Over the last week the 10 year US treasury note has increased in yield. It's up again today about 13 ticks.

How much difference will 15 basis points make in your costs over the term of your mortgage ?

Don't reject the good while waiting for the perfect

"Don't reject the good while waiting for the perfect"

Words of Wisdom

How does the 10 year note effect mortgage rates, Ken?

Spoke with a guy just today who says I can get 2.2 no problem, but he is working to find me 2% even. If he does I will take a note on a property for tax/depreciation reasons.

Osky

After their mid December meeting the FOMC declared they were going to continue buying 80 billion dollars of Tbonds and 40 billion of MBSs. They don’t stand a chance of reducing at least not meaningfully

The. FED will be keeping rates at or near zero until inflation blows through the roof.


EXCELLENT WISDOM

It doesn't Mike. I was just using that example because it's the most popular benchmark indication of what interest rates are doing at any point in time.

Mortgage rates are set by the bond market when buying/selling bundles of mortgage backed securities. Supply, demand, perception of inflation expectations.

Mortgage rates don't always follow the Fed. In fact they some times move opposite to what we might expect

I did 2.375% several months ago. Take what you can get and don’t look back. So what if you miss the absolute bottom. You will be getting a great rate.

No wonder real estate is over valued it costs almost nothing to buy a home. If you take out a 35-40 year 3% mortgage loan you can add a 100 K to the value of a house if you were paying 5-6 and paying off in 20 years. Not going to be fun when things shift just even a little bit because it is not just the increased interest cost when rates change it will be the loss of equity when the homes drop in value. There could easily be a lot of insolvent home owners in a quick hurry.

Bryce

And there you have it. The FED and the rest of the central banks of the world have painted themselves into a humdinger.

You can get a mortgage here now for 1.5