What's going on with the grain prices lately? I'm sure the new administration had nothing to do with it. What's the cause for the increases? I'm glad to see it.

Lots of factors. Not the least of which are high exports to China and low imports from Brazil.

Droughts in parts of the world ,i heard, helped push it up for Us markets.

Yes, I researched it. Sounds like poor crops worldwide for the most part.

Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Who said that?

I just Goggled it and that's the average statement from several different sources.

Mostly it is the weather. Here in the United States and in South America.

Two years of average or below anticipated crop production is showing up now. China is rebuilding their swine herd after slaughtering 100 million hogs, so their corn and soy usage is increasing rapidly. South American crops are about normal or below for a few years as well. Carryovers for corn and beans have been adjusted downward for almost a year now. Domestic demand is high and rising. Prices rising as much as they have is a way to slow usage and keep us from running real short. Planting in many areas is progressing rapidly which is a good sign as earlier plantings usually mean larger crops, but one reason for early planting is drier conditions, if we have a below average moisture year with two below anticipated crops in the recent past things could get really expensive and quickly. The bad news is if we get another short harvest then we have another whole year plus of the higher prices to slow usage.

Bryce

Well as someone who buys feed I'm certainly not glad to see it.

Bryce -- your insight and wisdom is much appreciated, and tends to agree with what I hear in the farming community. thank you again for your input.

Yes if you feed livestock, hogs, poultry and dairy the profit margins will really get narrow. Pork and poultry use a lot of corn and soy so those prices will feel the brunt the fastest. For cash crop farmers with hog herds or feeding steers they may choose to cut back or quit when you can sell corn and beans for what they are selling for now. Sure $100 per CWT on the board for hogs sounds great but when corn has more than doubled and soy up 5-6 dollars a bushel why? Not much different then trappers saying if I don't make money why should I catch them. Corn and beans find their way into almost all food and most plastic products so we will see advances all around. Just when restaurants etc. are starting to open up the prices for what is served will keep many away. For dairy when we see the schools this fall going back to mostly in class the price of dairy will go up more just in time for the big holiday cheese rush. Could be a high cost food and travel year and maybe with not too much profit.

Bryce

Was talking to a farmer at work and what he’s been hearing is china is preparing for war, who knows though!

War with who? They don't need to fight a war unless they want to use it as a method to depopulate a bit. doubt if any nation would want to get into a war of attrition with a country with 1.3 billion.
One of the disadvantages during the Vietnam war was South Vietnam had less then 20 million people, North Vietnam had about 70 million people the north could continue to recruit and draft fighting men as they had the population and the resources to do it. That was in addition to the fact that many South Vietnamese were VC or neutral.

Bryce

Yep, there are a few people on here that when they talk I listen just a little closer. Bryce is at the top of that list. Thank you Bryce.

China also had major flooding in much of their grain producing areas. Destroyed much of their crops. Xi made food waste a crime. Restaurant's are now regulated on how much food one table can order. So they know what might be coming. North Korean leader addressed the nation and told the country to "prepare for famine".

Bryce, shoujd we assume China's threat to Taiwan and their expansion in the south china sea is irrelevant ?

+1
Thanks

They already killed off 500,000 with their virus. Didn't fire a shot !!!!!

This week with the cold weather and a lot of beans in the ground makes soybean people nervous and with short covering was able to get up thru resistance, which after the smoke clears and assessed damage or not leaves the shorts ready to re enter or not.

The Asian culture is far more about patience then the western cultures. As far as places like Hong Kong, Taiwan and other places is a matter of time for them. They are growing the resources they need and are expanding faster than most of their neighbors are. If they were to make a fast move on Taiwan soon what would the rest of the world do? The Taiwanese have tied their hopes to less patience cultures and that may not bode well for them.
What we may not even begin to understand is that over time other southern Asian nations may form alliances with China for a whole host of reasons that we don't fathom at this time, much like the are doing in Africa now. They could also do those things in South and Central America as well. They don't have the money we have here but they invest their resources very differently then we do.

Bryce