Any insights on what lumber prices are going to do over the next year?

When will these changes will be noticed?

Hi Toby. Hope you or someone else has a crystal ball! I’d like to know what steel is gonna do, also!

Just my opinion but.......I wouldn't look for a drop in either lumber or steel. Unless housing starts drop and/or Biden relaxes lumber tariffs......not likely............I don't think lumber will come down.It may slow its rate of climb depending on if & when the Fed raises rates. Also wage rates are rising as workers become harder to find. That may affect the mills' production.

On steel, several of the large foundries have started buying up scrap and recycling companies to assure themselves a supply of raw material not constricted by foreign supply chain links. Look for steel...........probably all commodities......to continue rising

White17, I was not really expecting to see much of a drop. I am assuming prices are going to climb to do labor shortages, material shortages, transportation, inflation, etc... In other words, I am fishing for info on how much prices may climb and when these prices changes will be realized.

There are a couple of building projects I want to start at our new home (stud wall in our unfinished basement and building a deck) and I am trying to determine a timeline. Ideally, I would like to start them this fall, but my fear is that there will be a 30% or so increase by then. The idea of buying the material now and sitting on it for a few months is not very appealing, but my frugality may force me to take that route.

I hear ya Toby. I think it's a toss-up. It's never fun to sit on inventory. On the other hand, lets say the supply issues improve, we still have inflation in all the tertiary aspects as you point out. Especially transportation. Also consider what your dollars might be worth next September. Even if lumber prices stayed constant, the value of the dollar is likely to be less by then.

Right now lumber is about $1144 per thousand. Considerably less than over 1600 like it was. BUT....the trend is upward

A lumber yard here in town told a builder I know to buy anything he could afford now , and store it for his next three homes . Sounds like it may get outrageous ?????

I would be surprised to see it top last years highs.

I also think there is a reasonable chance we will be in a recession by next fall depending on the magnitude of rate hikes from the Fed. Just look at the markets today.

I am hoping to have my sawmill built this spring . Then I don't give a hoot anymore about the prices of lumber

going up 5-10% every 10 days here. 7/16" osb has gone up $12 a sheet in the last 3 weeks. and 2x4x8' are back to over $10 now.

Last week, Diane had me bid on a local online auction for a very large oak, accordion pantry, that came with "some wood" and some items that were in it. I won the auction for $7.00 and paid $7.77 with the 11% buyers premium. I showed up with my F-250. I got a full load and went back and filled up my truck a second time plus an 8' by 16' trailer. There was an 8' by 24' section of wood including the pantry in the garage. I got 56 8' 2" by 4"s and 3 16' 2" by 4"s. I also got a lot of birch plywood, 3/4" osb, 2" by 6"s, paneling, molding, oak flooring, maple flooring and 3 maple display cases. I got some pink depression glass, a new in box capachino pot, a new dog bowl, copper wire, a huge breaker bar and a really heavy duty aluminum sled for the $7.77 too.

If you need lumber and want to save money, it's probably worth looking at the local estate auctions.

Keith

all i can say is wow... great deal

Good job, Keith C.

And you didn’t tip her, Keith?

Has been steadily rising since this past September. Initially little by little, but in December our suppliers took two consecutive weeks of record increases in mbf pricing. That includes last year’s hikes. Everyone said last year that nobody would buy and continue to build with pricing where it was at, well all I can say is they were wrong. I wish pricing would settle into something stable, but until the prime rate moves up and stops all the building, I don’t see it happening. The people that trade between the mills and yards made way too much money last year, wouldn’t want a chance like that to slip away while they have the chance.

Just had delivered 50 1x6x8 t&g pine @ $12.38 ea., last year $10.43, Now wish I hadn't started the pine board paneling.

Someone is making a ton of money at the expense of other's 2by4 16ft mill price 575 canadian right now. It went as low as 450 in October. 7/16 osb 24 dollars a sheet.

How much ya want for the new dog bowl??? And don't say $7.77.

I don't think it will go down. We are working 6 10s with a crew and 1/2. I know the mill would like to work more but we can't hire workers. To make things better they now have to verify everybody is vaccinated
or the workers have to wear masks all the time. This is an OSHA requirement and they will face large fines if they don't. Who knows how many workers we will lose.
I was told the last price jump was caused by transportation problems caused by the recent floods in B.C.
I may never get a garage or shop.

Keith

Diane wants a she-shed and suggested that would be a good use for the lumber.

Keith