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Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: jbyrd63] #7460455
01/14/22 09:35 AM
01/14/22 09:35 AM
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Kansas
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It took sky high interest rates to tame inflation in the 70's. My father recently unearthed a loan agreement from that time period while going through old bank records. The interest rate on the note was 27%. That rate had to be bumping up against usury rates. I bought a Datsun pickup in the fall of 1976 and I remember the interest rate was fairly high on that loan.

Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: Steven 49er] #7460471
01/14/22 09:45 AM
01/14/22 09:45 AM
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Armpit, ak
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Dirt Offline
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Originally Posted by Steven 49er
Originally Posted by Dirt


As of July 14, 2021, the Federal Reserve has a portfolio totaling $8.3 trillion in assets, an increase of about $3.6 trillion since March 18, 2020. Longer-term Treasury notes and bonds (excluding inflation-indexed securities) comprise nearly two-thirds of that expansion, with holdings of those two types of securities doubling from $2.2 trillion on March 18, 2020, to $4.5 trillion on July 14, 2021.

Maybe they will be able to start selling these off? smile



They tried that in 2018 when the economy was supposedly red hot "The Greatest Economy in the history of our Country". It failed and QE began anew in august of 19.

THE FED is trapped.


They are good at the unwritten mandate." Keep the Stock market growing. "

We can't even normalize rates since 2007. Probably never will.

Last edited by Dirt; 01/14/22 10:49 AM.

Who is John Galt?
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: Mike in A-town] #7460576
01/14/22 11:22 AM
01/14/22 11:22 AM
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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Originally Posted by Mike in A-town
Originally Posted by white17
Amen Mike !!


You know, I really don't like being a hard case about stuff. But the constant onslaught of nonsense is wearing thin. I'm just a tradesman with a high school education. I don't know all the ins and outs of economics but I have a basic understanding of how things work.

One thing that I'll never figure out is why people insist others pay more taxes instead of demanding everyone pay less. Especially when the entities that they want to pay more taxes will just pass that cost along to the consumer.

Mike



Exactly right !


Mean As Nails
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: bwurts] #7460578
01/14/22 11:23 AM
01/14/22 11:23 AM
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

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Originally Posted by bwurts
something that could affect inflation that I haven't heard anyone speak of is that the West Coast Dockworkers contract expires July 2022 - guess who has ALL of the leverage in those negotiations? things are bad enough now as it pertains to ships being unloaded - what happens if things come to a complete standstill? - something to think about



Biden could replay the Reagan air traffic controllers strike.........but of course that won't happen


Mean As Nails
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: 3togo] #7460587
01/14/22 11:27 AM
01/14/22 11:27 AM
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

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Originally Posted by 3togo
I'm surprised that no one mentioned that the CPI excludes the cost of food and fuel in its calculation.

The government removed those 2, I believe in the '70's because it made the inflation % look to high when the "average" person was told what it was.



No. They remove those two items because they are so volatile that the result is unusable. By removing food and fuel from the 'core' items it gives a better picture of what is happening with everything else.
They report CPI both ways. With and without food and fuel. They aren't hiding anything from anyone that can read.


Mean As Nails
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: Steven 49er] #7460591
01/14/22 11:32 AM
01/14/22 11:32 AM
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

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Originally Posted by Steven 49er
Originally Posted by Dirt


As of July 14, 2021, the Federal Reserve has a portfolio totaling $8.3 trillion in assets, an increase of about $3.6 trillion since March 18, 2020. Longer-term Treasury notes and bonds (excluding inflation-indexed securities) comprise nearly two-thirds of that expansion, with holdings of those two types of securities doubling from $2.2 trillion on March 18, 2020, to $4.5 trillion on July 14, 2021.

Maybe they will be able to start selling these off? smile



They tried that in 2018 when the economy was supposedly red hot. It failed and QE began anew in august of 19.

THE FED is trapped.



I agree to a large extent.... and that, IMO is why we don't see the 10 year treasury yield sky rocketing. I believe the bond market does NOT believe the Fed can/will follow through to any great extent with rate increases. . So to a large degree, I too think the Fed is trapped.

I have a lot more faith in the bond market than in the Fed.


Mean As Nails
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: jbyrd63] #7460593
01/14/22 11:35 AM
01/14/22 11:35 AM
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Posts: 15,697
Fredonia, PA.
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This is nothing at the moment. Wait until the depression hits and believe me, it's coming. It's pretty much inevitable at this point. It's going to be much worse than the 30's. Not only economically but people are so soft these days that many may not survive it. I'm trying to get the house paid off and be debt free before it hits but mark my words, it's coming.


I BELIEVE IN MY GOD, MY COUNTRY AND IN MYSELF.
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: jbyrd63] #7460594
01/14/22 11:35 AM
01/14/22 11:35 AM
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Hancock Co., Indiana
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Seems to me the only way possible for us to pay back such huge national debt is to increase the money supply, devalue the currency, and pay the debt back with cheaper dollars.

That's a good thing for people that owe a lot of money. But it's a really bad thing for the people who have a good savings account balance.


What from Christ that soul can sever,
Bound by everlasting bands?
None shall take thee
From the Strength of Israel's hands.

Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: white17] #7460597
01/14/22 11:38 AM
01/14/22 11:38 AM
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Indiana
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White, do you watch the Kitco site, some good some not so info. Daily ratios though.


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Gibbs. #9 always carry a knife
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: jbyrd63] #7460604
01/14/22 11:47 AM
01/14/22 11:47 AM
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

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No I don't but I'll take a look now that you've mentioned it. Just can't get excited about metals.


Mean As Nails
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: Kart29] #7460613
01/14/22 12:04 PM
01/14/22 12:04 PM
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Perry, NY
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Originally Posted by Kart29
Seems to me the only way possible for us to pay back such huge national debt is to increase the money supply, devalue the currency, and pay the debt back with cheaper dollars.

That's a good thing for people that owe a lot of money. But it's a really bad thing for the people who have a good savings account balance.



I have been saying that same thing for a while now. People seem to think I'm nuts. The big problem with that plan is that the government would be in control and they are worse with money than anybody I know.

Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: Finster] #7460694
01/14/22 02:09 PM
01/14/22 02:09 PM
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Posts: 6,065
Northern Mn
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It's only going to get WORSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!The crash is coming I plan on having my house and 160 acres paid off sometime this year 7% is a flat out lie more like 15 to 18% it will take time but hopefully within 3 to 4 years we get it back under control.

Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: Kart29] #7460905
01/14/22 07:14 PM
01/14/22 07:14 PM
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Posts: 8,821
mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Online content
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Originally Posted by Kart29
Seems to me the only way possible for us to pay back such huge national debt is to increase the money supply, devalue the currency, and pay the debt back with cheaper dollars.

That's a good thing for people that owe a lot of money. But it's a really bad thing for the people who have a good savings account balance.



The debt will never be, and can not be paid back and they know it. What they would like to do is inflate the economy so the debt becomes sustainable in relation to GDP. It's not working. Every time they blow up the money supply through stimulus and QE the rise in GDP has a lower ROI from the free dollars.

The CPI was changed not to get a better gauge of inflation. It was much more dastardly than that. It was to bail out government entitlements that are pegged to inflation. Could any imagine where social security would be. Bankrupt comes to mind.

I am barely old enough to remember the inflation of the late 70s. If we figured inflation then like we do now it would have been less than the current published numbers. If that is the case than why was it perceived as such a big deal then and not so much now?

What is happening is a predictable as the full moon that is almost here and has been since Nixon broke the Breton Woods accord.


Hang on boys the roller coaster hasnt even hit the corkscrew yet. We still need one more round of deflation for things to really get squirrelly.

Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: jbyrd63] #7460908
01/14/22 07:18 PM
01/14/22 07:18 PM
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mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Online content
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Ken if you haven't looked at Kitco yet, save your time. Not because the info isn't necessarily sound but because I know you won't agree with it.

Rick, there isn't a politician outside of the Rand family with the will to fix the predicament we are in.

Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: Steven 49er] #7460929
01/14/22 07:42 PM
01/14/22 07:42 PM
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Northern Mn
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Steve start to get it under control we will never climb out of the hole that we are in and have been in for many many years.If the world does'nt come to the end rapture I feel REAL SORRY for the next 50 years and beyond.

Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: Steven 49er] #7461070
01/14/22 10:08 PM
01/14/22 10:08 PM
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McGrath, AK
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white17 Offline

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Originally Posted by Steven 49er
Ken if you haven't looked at Kitco yet, save your time. Not because the info isn't necessarily sound but because I know you won't agree with it.

Rick, there isn't a politician outside of the Rand family with the will to fix the predicament we are in.



Oh I think you misinterpret my position on metals. I have some physical gold, silver, and platinum but I don't view any of them as an investment. They are more curios to me.

That said, you and I are on the same page generally about monetary and fiscal policies. I believe there is no intent or desire to decrease or eliminate the debt or deficit. I don't believe it is possible.

I agree with Kart29 and others that the plan is to devalue the currency over time and as you say, get the debt to a point that is is somewhat sustainable relative to GDP. But that won't happen either because the government won't slow spending enough.....let alone stop spending.

So when I consider trying to hedge that devaluation I think stocks are a better way to go. Especially those related to natural resources. If I was 50 years younger I might look at AG, AU differently. But from my vantage point, an event that caused PM's to appreciate enough to justify holding them, is an event that is extremely high in consequences ( catastrophic) but extremely low in probability. Could it happen ? Yes. Is it probable in my lifetime ? no.

It's one of those things that is different for each person depending on their situation.

Just looking back on these last two years I have bartered a lot of reloading components but no precious metals. I think that bartering might be a more likely route in the years ahead.

One thing I wonder about is another "bank holiday" ala FDR. How would people react to something like that ? Today, I think there would be some mighty push back. But 20 years from now, when all the kids who have been inculcated with the CRT message, will there be enough people who understand what's going on ?

I think it was Bwurts who used the term "financially illiterate" earlier in this thread. I think that term is absolutely appropriate and applicable to a YUGE percentage of people. Maybe even a majority.

That surely needs to change.


Mean As Nails
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: jbyrd63] #7461179
01/14/22 11:45 PM
01/14/22 11:45 PM
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I agree White 17. People who are fat, dumb and happy place a lot more value on things like Twitter and Facebook than they do on staying warm and staying fed. Europe is getting a little taste of how valuable natural gas is when it is in short supply.

Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: jbyrd63] #7461189
01/14/22 11:56 PM
01/14/22 11:56 PM
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Armpit, ak
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"On Thursday, Jan 14, the Senate voted down legislation from GOP Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas to sanction entities associated with Russia's controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. "

Maybe Europe will get some gas?


Who is John Galt?
Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: jbyrd63] #7461198
01/15/22 12:14 AM
01/15/22 12:14 AM
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Maybe! Putin would probably sell them a couple months worth if they include the deed to Ukraine in the remittance envelope.

Re: 7 % inflation LOL LOL LOL [Re: jbyrd63] #7461215
01/15/22 12:32 AM
01/15/22 12:32 AM
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mn north of blakely
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Steven 49er Online content
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Reloading supplies are a great I flatiron hedge.

Ken I don't think I misunderstand your position relating to metals, where I think our difference is the definition of sound money practices and the poor decision made when abandoned the gold standard . I believe an event that will cause the value of metals to increase is a mathematical certainty in my lifetime.

I should clarify I don't read the kitCo stuff much, it's the same old broken record. I used to like to read the Kitco forums and still do but it's become really mundane

I agree about natural resource related stocks as well as other commodities that will benefit from a devaluing dollar. In my personally directed accounts I may be getting a bit overweight in those areas lol.

Humor me Ken, you say that stocks are the best to outpace inflation, a premise I agree with in an organic market.[b][/b] where do think the markets would be without the inflationary policies of governments and central banks?

The government cannot stop deficit spending, a debt backed currency demands it. The longer an economy runs on a fiat system it requires more of it.

Rick, I don't take much stock in rapture talk, as bad as we perceive things to be, there isn't any time in the history of the for the average human being to be alive.

Last edited by Steven 49er; 01/15/22 12:43 AM.
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