Because I'm bored.

What do you think Ken or anyone else? Not too far in the distant future?

Or are we going to get stuck in a stagflationary quagmire?

The way things are right now nothing would surprise me. Total collapse could also happen very quickly.

I think it is possible. Probable ??? Not so much. I certainly hope not. Japan has been suffering from deflation for a couple decades now and can't find a way out...........as I'm sure you know.

Stagflation is pretty likely I think. So many moving parts that are not within our ability to control.

Could we have a combination of deflation in some sectors, while other sectors experience stagflation?

I think that is pretty much what we saw with the energy sector just a few years ago. So yeah. I think that's possible too

I have zero idea what is going to happen all I know for sure is the Fed is backed into a corner of their own design.

My gut tells me stagflation but then again with interest rates going up and inflation so high surely it will instigate demand destruction.

Saw this article this morning. Pretty interesting.


https://thehill.com/opinion/finance...ates-with-the-current-national-debt/amp/

Isn't stagflation characterized by a high unemployment rate? Down here, people are still begging for workers.

I am 75. I can remember a few years of declining farm prices. I remember Nixon’s wage and price freeze in the early 70s.

My parents went through the Great Depression, which caused deflation. I hope this never happens again. The ability to print money almost insures inflation.

So is treasury bills, notes, and bonds a sure thing good investment or no?

Inflation occurs when money (too much supply) becomes worth less then commodities or items to purchase. Many talk about all the cash that came on due to all the handouts and UE payments and yes they put cash in the hands of those with less total wealth. Twenty percent drop in the market has now taken a huge chunk away from those living partially to quite a bit on retirement earnings. My guess is by mid summer with school starting up again that spending will cut back and on several items a lot. People for a year wanted to spend their way back to 2019 or so with no restrictions etc. Well soon the restriction will be not willing or able to play at the recent levels. If the market stays off like it is or lower that really will impact the liquidity and cash available for tens of millions of older workers and retirees who typically have the highest percentage of discretionary income to spend. These are the people also who many times are more able and willing to curtail expenses. In reality inflation, deflation, reccession and depression are all bad things for a stable or growing economy. We can all take our pick as to which is worse. We may see them all in a short period of time.
There are signs of spending is slowing, in auto and housing areas and it will spread from there and seems to be global as many exports are stable to lowering as well.

Bryce

I would look at the Series-I saving bond. Paying 9.62% now. An individual can only buy $10,000 per year. Wife can also. Maybe even kids. Tops all safe investments I know of.

If you have deeper pockets, look at commercial real estate groups in your community. Bridge loans can be sweet. These are loans to developers to supplement construction loans. Can be pretty safe if the buyer of the property is well heeled.

Yes coupled with persistent inflation. Unemployment tends to be a lagging indicator IMHO.

Chancey, the only way the US government will be able to service it's debt at higher interest rate levels is to monetize the debt is through inflation..

If people make more money screwing the system and playing the black market you can have tons of vacant jobs and tons of unemployed at the same time.

What does that mean Steven? Lots more interest rate hikes on us so govt can pay their debt?

If it overinflates let some air out.If it deflates blow it back up a bit.

The US will use a CBDC to pretend to combat inflation as you in fact are robbed of everything.
The US dollar is failing as the global financial baselayer.
It will not unfail.

Your currency is going digital whether you like it or not.
By waiting to act on digitizing your wealth you will only hurt yourself by buying in later at a worse price.

Get your money out of fiat yesterday.
There is no turning back.

What they will do now is attempt to crush demand to slow price increases.
Crushing you.

Make sure there is nothing between you, food, water and shelter. Especially not the government or a grocery store.
Learn about CBDCs. It’s how you’ll be getting you government coupons soon. Not in fiat.
If you aren’t learning this stuff, you will only get more lost and more impoverished.

I'm not sure about high unemployment? If they, keep printing money and not normalizing interest rates to make an American economy, the U.S. may end up like Japan. Unemployment has a demographic component. I wouldn't worry about it, capable people will do fine.

Right on MnMan,lol.