Will it be? Is the sky falling? Did you wait one day too long to cash out? Has the AI bubble burst? Is it the end of the world as we know it?

I guess no one knows for sure. But I certainly hope not as I sure took advantage of this dip today and bought a lot of bullish spreads. I guess time will tell whether or not I am an idiot, LOL.

I think the probability of a prolonged selloff is not zero but I don't think it's world ending time either.
Some people are missing or ignoring the fact that the jobs report indicates a strong and/or strengthening economy. Yeah that could push the Fed to raise rates but so what. An expanding economy should be able to handle higher borrowing costs. It might also address inflation expectations....which would be a good thing.

It is certainly a better outlook than increasing joblessness and a possible recession that would push the Fed to reduce rates.

I also think once we get past the SPCX IPO things may settle down. MAYBE......provided the IPO is successful.
I have some real doubts about that. What would the rest of the market do if the SPCX IPO is a flop ? I think then there would be a good chance of more downside. And I think there is a good chance of it being less than impressive.

Remember what IPO means................."It's probably overpriced".

Locally we're feeling the economy slow down a bit.

The economy just feels weird, there's a small group of people doing really well and they are keeping us busy, these are almost exclusively boomers. Everyone else seems to be struggling.

That is pretty universal in the economy right now I think. Boomers have a lifetime worth of savings and investments compared to the younger cohorts of the population. Also a better work ethic would go a long way to help those younger people. I saw a statistic yesterday that said 24 or 25% of males 20-54 years old do not have a job and do not want a job. The social safety net has become a hammock.

Locally we have 40+ year old construction guys who have never experienced a slow time. You can't convince them how unusual this is. These prices must absolutely suck for people living from paycheck to paycheck.

I'm 36 and I can assure you 2008-2014ish sucked.

I would agree work ethic would help but I'm also seeing people in their 20s,30s,40s working hard and struggling. Housing has gotten out of hand, land is out of hand, things that matter are out of hand, I think it's easy to justify buying a new PlayStation and working less when you feel like you can't get ahead even if your working 60 hours a week. Feel like the American dream of a house and white picket fence is being relegated to the past.

I dunno, I do flooring estimates for a large company and our first quarter sales are well above what was estimated. The vast majority of the customers I work with are in the 30-60 year old age group. I just had my home sided by a local contractor and was lucky to get on the schedule before fall (paid a down payment for the work in Jan.). Was at Menards last weekend and every checkout was 5 people deep. Hardly an economic panic around here.

2008 to 2014 were boom times in my local area. I did fly on a few trans-atlantic flights during that time period that were basically empty so some areas of the world were slow.

You have to remember, donner, that the American Dream often included stepping outside of your comfort zone. If it hadn't, would this country ever have been settled? The 20-40-somethings that are giving up and buying PlayStations could likely have their American Dream if they were brave enough to step outside of urban, liberal MN cities. You know, like the people that left "crowded" states in the east to settle the west? Or the person on this thread that as a 20-something left the liberal west coast to pursue the American dream in the Great White North? People your age tend to want a life handed to them. Sometimes.... ya have to go find the life you want.

There’s been 9 consecutive up weeks

The streak was bound to end

The 3 biggest ipo’s ever are about to happen,,,,

The money is going to come from somewhere

Sorry Donner, we been through this before. The so-called folks that ARE actually working 60 hours weeks and ARE actually broke must be making pee poor life decisions with their money. Theres more to becoming financially successful than just making money...in fact, Id say the discipline in handling money is more important than the amount you make.

No, they're mostly just not very smart. Boomers could work at the factory 40 hours a week and own a house, you didn't have to be smart to put wheels on a car but you'd still get a pension and could afford a house. Now we've imported Mexicans and deported manufacturing and we can't figure out why some people just can't seem to succeed.

Edited to say, I also agree that there's far to many handouts

when I was in my thirties, everyone I knew then was struggling. all of us were near the beginning of our careers, had a mortgage, car loan and very young kids. we didn't make a lot of money. we struggled.

but we persevered, and (in due time) thrived.

that same demographic today seems to think they shouldn't be struggling, that they should already have the assets and peace of mind that come with a lifetime of work and self-sacrifice.

There's a difference between struggling to pay a mortgage and struggling to pay rent. Student loans are a huge factor also, maybe even the biggest factor.

Life's tough for everybody, I'm not making excuses but I still think it's okay to acknowledge that housing and college cost have gotten out of control.

Every time is see the title of the post, I think,,, martin king day.

Building new houses in the Kansas City outskirts. Lots of them. Somebody is buying them. Even at the price being asked. Most before they are finished building them. I think the economy is still ok.. Yes groceries are higher, utilities are higher, property tax is outrageous, gas/diesel is unbelievably high, and insurance keeps going up. Yet those homes are selling. Might all take a tumble. Might not. I got no crystal ball.

Life like trapping depends on a strong work ethic for sucess.
If you want to have a good easy life when you are older you need to work hard when you are young.
Hustling around trying to make money without working for it is a mugs game.

I agree that there are areas in the country where buying a home (or even paying rent) is close to impossible for young folks. But that is NOT the case nationwide. As I said in an earlier post.... if you live in a democrat-controlled area with astronomical housing rates.... relocation may be the only logical choice.

College costs....... it doesn't take too much skill to get a part time job at Lowe's. And once you do, and are there for (I believe) 3 months.......they will pay 100% of the tuition for a four year degree. No, it does not include degrees in basket-weaving, lol, but degrees in business, finance, computers, etc. are all available. Lowe's is NOT the only business that does this.... it is in fact becoming a more and more popular "perk". And then of course there are scholarships. My GPA in my free finance degree was high enough to earn me a scholarship at Ole Miss that covers 75% of the tuition of my Master's degree. People that are getting $100,000 in debt for anything less than medical or law school...... are simply doing it wrong.

Some people make a career out of going to school
Still going to school in their 30s and 40s.
Poor buggers will never catch up financially to the ones who entered the workforce early.

Pretty awesome to have to move a cross the country to find opportunities because the ones that used to exist locally are now being filled by Mexicans or shipped to China.

Not awesome at all. My point is that this is mostly an issue found in blue states like MN, and NOT in red states like MS. Your people likely wouldn't need to move across country, I am sure they could find work in neighboring SD, ND, or IA. The solution is changing your state government.... or moving. Not hiding in Mom's basement playing X-Box, fcol.






Is this a dig at me?? If so... I entered the workforce at 16 and worked all my life. I am currently increasing the money in my IRA exponentially through active management of my accounts. And yes, I went back to school in my 40s because I was getting too old for the physically demanding jobs I have worked for the past 20 years and am looking for a less demanding career for the next 20.

You should have entered the workforce in the rust belt during the late seventies early eighties. Had to move to Texas to find a job. Americans don't see hard times anymore due to QE and Government endless borrowing to kill recessions. BTW I believe most of the country is still experiencing a labor shortage?

You are right Dirt. The jobs report from yesterday included numbers from April's JOLTS survey. It showed that in April there were 731,000 NEW job openings unfilled. Most of those in professional and service related work

Maybe I live in a bubble, but most Gen Z guys that I know, primarily 17-20 year olds, are doing great imo, most of them have savings of $20-30K, and many have stocks and crypto. Maybe that isn't so great, but even factoring for inflation, it seems like a lot more than I and the peers of my era had.

Then who is renting and buying? If it were that tough to do prices would come down.

I don't know the particular situation in Donner's area, but logic would suggest the "not so young" folk. The 30+ crowd that have completed their degrees and got a job, or found a good paying job that did not require a degree.

And I don't see where that is really anything new. When I was 22 there was no way in hades I could afford rent in an apartment anywhere near to where I was going to college. So I did what college-aged kids do... and had 3 roommates to share the cost.

I think the issue is mentality... "I should have this because...."

No, you should work until you are able to.

Some states obviously are more expensive than others to live in. So, IMO, young folks cursed to be born in those states have 3 choices....

1) Move to a more hospitable locale which is likely the quickest way to advance.

2) Stay, make concessions, wait, earn, save... and eventually be able to afford a life in your awful state.

3) Retreat to the X-box in Mama's basement and spend you life as a leech.

Not aimed at you or anyone else bettering themselves later in life.
I was referring to those who never stop going to school on the govt dime taking useless course after course and making their living going to school permanently.
See lots of people doing that.

Lots of young folks today want all the toys and nice things their parents have, but they just dont think about the fact it took their parents 30-40 years of work to get there. Instant gratification causes a lot of folks to go into debt for silly things... jmo

I graduated 2008, it was not a picnic. I had to travel to work, ND, SD, Iowa, Montana, Etc, been there, climbed windtowers in all of em.

About that labor shortage... Yes everyone needs workers but lets use local dairy's for an example. Myself and my friends all worked on dairy farms as teens, many of us wanted to farm, there was no way to work to ownership because the dairy's have grown to 5,000-20,000 cows using Mexican labor, we were all forced to go find different careers and a few of us made enough to buy our way back into farming. Now I see those large Dairy farms complaining about immigration crackdowns scaring their workforce off and how "no one wants to work anymore" milking someone else's cows for $18 a hour. When you take away the path to ownership suddenly you need slav... "immigrant" labor again.

I've done fine for myself, I don't have a playstation and I don't live in my moms basement. That said I can see why some are struggling and I think its naive to dismiss it all as laziness or "avocado toast".

I watched market to market plus today and Matt Bennett, if you haven’t noticed the grains have fallen really hard, one thought he had wad the funds were moving money to the sidelines waiting for those IPO’s to happen, and which ever way it can go they’ll invest to make to make money by driving it that way.

Yep.

But you shouldn't. You did what you needed to do in the world you found yourself in and succeeded. There is zero reason why anyone else can't do the same as you did!!

I don't much understand your comments about working up to ownership? That seems.....odd. Did owners prior to the new time you speak of have no family to inherit their businesses? I would think that bequeathing ownership to employees would have been exceedingly rare in any era.......

Volatility in the market/stock prices is part of the game when investing in stock market. So, I'm up over 95 YTD (Jan. 2026) and we have lost ~2% of those gains/growth. So, growth/gains are still very much in positive territory. No Black Monday, unless we drop 15 to 20% then it will be something to talk about. Volatility is out of our control but risk is something you can control. I never worry or spend my time worrying over things I have no control of.

… hey Yote … maybe the opportunities aren’t as abundant as they used to be

… and I think Donner is saying greed has replaced a system that had worked historically

Greed is one of the most powerful emotional drivers in financial markets, often fueling bull markets, asset bubbles, and speculative booms. It occurs when investors, motivated by the prospect of high returns, take on more risk than is justified by fundamentals.

Fear & greed are the two huge emotional events that cause pricing and market swings.

The magnutude that non-citizens ( mexicans), entered the workforce in the early eighties set a path that has been problematic now for many years.

When I was a kid there was a bunch of 160 to 500 acre dairy farms, some larger 1,000 acre farms. Most milked between 30 and 200 cows. It's gotten to the point now that one large farm employing a bunch of Mexicans milks 20,000+ cows and has to rent or buy every acre that comes up for sale in a 30 mile radius.

The opportunities to farm were swallowed up by pencil pushers employing illegals. Now we have Mexicans living in trailers instead of a bunch of small family farms and we all wonder why "kids don't want to work anymore", kids ain't learning how to work because they don't have farms to work on, mowing the lawn and taking out the trash ain't cutting it for the next generation.

Greed is one of the most powerful emotional drivers

True, I think greed has morphed to gouging on main street,.at least that is my observation.

… you’re wasting your time … she’ll just say they should start their own company or something lol

2008 was one year. Stagflation in the 70's and 80's was close to a decade. I lived through both, I believe the early non Qe fixed one was much worse. Dairy farmers probably did o k back then with all the government price supports.

LOL Savell, you obviously didn't listen to anything I said. I told you I was not a fan of importing menial laborers just because they work cheaper. I saw the same thing happen in western NY decades before it happened in donner's neck of the woods.

But I am still confused on how people were able to work their way up to OWNING the farm.....

Yote30. Not wanting to speak for Donner, but I believe what he is referring to is generational farms. Where the farm was passed from Father to another family member. Was not that long ago that a family could do ok 50 cows and a couple hundred acres. However once the bigger operations start growing it becomes a domino effect, and they need to get bigger and bigger. At a certain point they get to be so big that they have no competition. Real hard for a younger person to try to compete, and get started. Younger guy needs to "borrow " to even get started, and big operator needs to "spend" so he doesn't have to pay taxes. G.

Yes, generational farms that were bankrupted by cheap labor on massive farms. It was also realistic to make a living with 30 cows on a 160, a guy could buy into that and make it work. That's pretty much gone, all the rural families along with it

A lot of the things pointed out by others are exactly what our youngest and his fiancée are utilizing. They both have chosen a field that is pretty secure. They are moving away from the area to make the money necessary to start a family. The world is still an oyster, opening it depends on the tools you obtained.

and your WILLINGNESS to pursue your goals.

lol….yeah, that too.

Does anybody actually believe a job report anymore?

If you don't mind my asking what career field is your youngest employed in.

In my opinion, if AI stays on its current track nothing is secure to a degree.

His degree is in computer science. He is currently writing programs for a local company…..and yes, that includes at times the use of ai……which he enjoys finding the flaws in it. lol

Two really good quotes also right now in the ag world lending money is almost non existent, I’ve just gone through this situation, banks in the ag world are hurting which makes things harder.

Judging from Friday, apparently the market still does, lol.

The hey day of dairy price supports






A Legacy of Government Intervention
The MAMGB proposal follows a long history of interventions, starting with the first significant federal effort to address milk surpluses in 1984-1985 with the USDA-Administered Milk Diversion Program. Responding to a surge in surplus dairy product purchases that cost USDA $2.7 billion in 1983, Congress enacted a temporary program. Farmers were paid $10 per cwt. to reduce their milk marketings by 5% to 30%, funded by a farmer assessment.

While $955 million was paid out and milk production was reduced by an estimated 3.74 to 4.11 billion pounds in 1984, the program suffered from “adverse selection” and “moral hazard” issues. Many participants had already reduced production, and non-participants expanded, leading to no measurable impact on national average milk price or overall production trends. Milk supply quickly rebounded, prompting further intervention.

This led to the more drastic 1986-1987 Milk Buyout Program (Dairy Termination Program - DTP), part of the 1985 farm bill. The goal was ambitious: Reduce U.S. milk production by 12 billion pounds annually by paying farmers to permanently exit production. Approximately 15,000 farmers accepted bids, removing about 1.55 million cows at a cost of $1.8 billion. However, like its predecessor, the DTP faced “free-rider” problems; non-participating farms increased their output, offsetting the intended reduction. While growth remained flat, national milk production did not decline as significantly as intended.

“The Dairy Termination Program, or Whole Herd Buyout, legislated in the 1985 farm bill, was a response to the now discontinued dairy price support program that had ratcheted milk prices to a level that was generating very costly surpluses of government dairy product purchases under the program,” says Peter Vitaliano, long-time chief economist of the National Milk Producers Federation. “Our analysis suggests that DTP and support price reductions during 1986-90 have proven to be a cost-effective means of reducing the quantity and expense of government purchases under the price support program.”


This is how my Father in law got his family out of the dairy business,

A good jobs report and a low unemployment report and a increasing inflation report equals no fed rate cut and no reason not to raise rates, Cautious investors will move money to the market if fixed investment rates get too low and investors will move money or keep money from the market if fixed rates remain attractive. It happened in 2022/2023.

Bob Just recently had a conversation with my local small town banker. Basically his thoughts were we haven"t even seen "To big to fail". He said for better or worse they are attached to the big operators. If there is a bad year or two for them,by getting so big there are no small farmers that would be able to step in and pick up the pieces. All the small equipment was sold as scrap iron and most of the farms had acreages sold off and someone else bought the farm ground. I work in town and on the eleven mile trip in on gravel roads no one in that trip is an active farmer. Most are small acreages, and the ones that aren't are older people that rented their acres to bigger guys. G.

Job reports and inflation reports?

All lies. Every job report from 22 and 23 has been revised down. Flat out fabrications

Angela I've worked in ND, and KS and MN doing what I do.

I'll take MN over the other 3. The wages are better here. enough to offset any tax savings and there are plenty of good jobs available here in the trades.

I hear it all the time from guys who say they are moving after they retire. When asked why not move before it's always the same answer

Donner, graduating in 2008 was a great time to start in the job market. Sure it may have been slow for a.couple years but it's been fantastic since about 2012. Add in artificially low rates for over a decade and a booming stock market there was ample opportunities to grow wealth.

There is going to be even more for younger guys with a solid work ethic. The baby boomers are starting to retire and the beginning of the gen xers aren't far away. A guy that isn't afraid of work, decent head on his shoulders, can pass a drug test and some leadership traits will be able to find a good job any where.

The one caveat iso to speak s AI and how many jobs it will take away. It's going to be substantial IMHO. I could wrong. It could also create enough in other areas to offset those jobs as long as we aren't like the dairy farmers and see it coming.

I've been lucky if one wants to call it that. I have some good young men under thirty working for me. They are not afraid to work hours and are good with their money. They own houses, cars, have children and money in the bank. For the most part they avoid the traps the modern economy has set for them. They live on a budget and within their means.

The whole stinkin flimsy pile of cards is about ready to implode.

Most likely

I'm the last of the baby boomers. Most have already retired. Proubly close to half are dead.

Looking like tomorrow is fixing up to be pretty painful.

Edit: Or maybe not?? When I posted this NDAQ futures were down over 4%!! As of right now, they are UP .20%. I am not sure what is going on.........

Not very much that's for sure.
BUT......the bond market does and I believe the bond market.

When both stocks and bonds sell off then you know something is out of whack.

Looks like we're gonna rally for a couple days maybe. But in long run the bond market will be right.

S&P futures up .58% and NASDAQ up 1.11 % two hours before the bell. Still have a long ways to go before they are back above last Thursday

Still well above Jan 1.



This AI run might be a little "exuberant" so to speak.

Just a little ))))))))))))

Sure doesn't seem as if much can slow it down....

What do you guys think about the earnings reports you have been seeing?

Better than I would have expected.........generally

Earnings reports typically go up in inflationary environments, well until they don't.....

If people are willing to shell out 154,000,000 just sit down and watch a NBA game [ 7700 avg price per seat X 20,000 seats] I would guess there is some money out there for the market.

Thats nuts...but, if you earned it, you deserve to spend it how you like.

Then again, a loaf of bread was $0.99 not too long ago.

I personality wouldn't wast my time going to a NFL game if it were free. Never watched one on TV either.

I have watched some High-school football games a few times and grandpa liked geting seasion tickets to UE collage basketball games and taking myself and one cousin to Cardinals game once a year. I have never been a big spectator sports guy.

I would sooner go to the Barnum and Bailey freak show than an NBA basketball game.