Posted By: crosspatch
FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 12:52 AM
Is posted on their website. Interesting - wonder how it compares with Groenewold.
FHA Market Forecast
Posted By: Boco
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 01:06 AM
I read it on the cnta site-looks pretty accurate.
Posted By: Hodagtrapper
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 01:49 AM
Posted By: Dirt
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 02:10 AM
Originally Posted by crosspatch
Is posted on their website. Interesting - wonder how it compares with Groenewold.
Not the same. Groeny's arrows are more accurate. IMO
!8.5 million Kopenhagen mink and 8.5 million SAGA mink equals 27 million plus the North American crop(NAFA's) and the mink sold out of the Auction process won't be less than 25 million.
Posted By: Furvor
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 02:20 AM
They appear to be telling it like it is.
Posted By: nimzy
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 12:57 PM
Makes sense too me. Found it sincere.
Posted By: PaRay
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 01:45 PM
I'm looking forward to shipping with FHA this year, seems like a solid company
Posted By: Steelflight
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 02:21 PM
Well noshortage of mink it looks like. But what do i know.
Posted By: red mt
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 03:54 PM
Fashion is what drives the market ,,,supply and demand is a far away second.
Posted By: waggler
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 04:00 PM
100 million mink last year, that's crazy. With all these mink ranches going out of business, and getting production levels back to a more reasonable number it will bode well for the entire fur industry in the future I think.
Posted By: Dirt
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 04:06 PM
2013 100 million mink. That would be an estimate.
Kopenhagen just dumped about 7 million skins on the market in September 2019, lucky if the average was $23.
Kopenhagen just dumped about 7 million skins on the market in September 2019, lucky if the average was $23.
Posted By: alaska viking
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 04:14 PM
Well, sable prices last March were nothing to write home about.
Posted By: waggler
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 04:21 PM
I'm willing to wait a couple of years or so for prices to improve, we've seen it before; the boom and bust cycle of the ranch mink industry.
Posted By: waggler
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 04:33 PM
It doesn't matter what the commodity is, when supply goes beyond demand, the price comes down. Everyone agrees on this. Every producer knows that on a macro level production must come down.
The problem is that on a micro level, many if not most producers think that they can make up for the low price by increasing their production. This seldom work out for the individual producer. I've seen it happen in many different industries; in the fishing industry I've seen many guys invest in larger boats, larger crews, etc, in an attempt to make up for low price by increasing their effort and volume. Most of the time it doesn't really workout for them, and many times it leads to going broke.
The problem is that on a micro level, many if not most producers think that they can make up for the low price by increasing their production. This seldom work out for the individual producer. I've seen it happen in many different industries; in the fishing industry I've seen many guys invest in larger boats, larger crews, etc, in an attempt to make up for low price by increasing their effort and volume. Most of the time it doesn't really workout for them, and many times it leads to going broke.
Posted By: BigBlackBirds
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 04:51 PM
Originally Posted by red mt
Fashion is what drives the market ,,,supply and demand is a far away second.
fashion sure is a fickle beast. with the big dip in temps everyone is walking around in a winter coat past my office window. good percentage of those winter coats have some kinda hood with ruff. but of those type of trimmed coats americans are primarily wearing something using synthetic fake fur or fairly low grade fur. at least here, the high dollar canada goose products are pretty exclusively worn by asians. looks like awful niche market. doubt it holds up for much longer particularly with the lower quality coyote trimmed coats that see out there causing a walmart effect on what the end user wants to be seen as exclusive/luxury item. the upside is i've seen a small number of high quality coats walk by that appear to be trimmed in something like western coon. not sure if those are canada goose product or someone else but i bet the fashion trend flips shortly. not that what ive seen so far helps short haired mink, rats, etc.
Posted By: Boco
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 06:00 PM
If you look at the historical records of the HBC,when the Indians were supplying all the fur for the first couple hundred yearsof the trade,when the prices would go high,they would bring in less fur because they would get the same amount of goods they needed for less fur.
When the prices went low,the Indians brought more fur in order to get the equivalent value in goods.
Sort of opposite to how the white man thinks supply and demand works.
When the prices went low,the Indians brought more fur in order to get the equivalent value in goods.
Sort of opposite to how the white man thinks supply and demand works.
Posted By: Dirt
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 06:27 PM
When HBC tried to move in on the Chilkat's fur trade, they burnt down their fort. 
Posted By: Northof50
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 06:27 PM
Got that right Boco.
now they just go and buy it from the white guy and turn it in for their " living off the land production = cheque"
now they just go and buy it from the white guy and turn it in for their " living off the land production = cheque"
Posted By: Dirt
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 06:54 PM
Genuine Mackenzie Valley Furs. Not traceable.
Posted By: Boco
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 06:57 PM
Moose fort changed hands a couple times too.
Posted By: Trapper7
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 07:47 PM
Originally Posted by PaRay
I'm looking forward to shipping with FHA this year, seems like a solid company
I have a feeling a lot of trappers will.
Posted By: Furvor
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 08:05 PM
Quote
If you look at the historical records of the HBC,when the Indians were supplying all the fur for the first couple hundred yearsof the trade,when the prices would go high,they would bring in less fur because they would get the same amount of goods they needed for less fur.
When the prices went low,the Indians brought more fur in order to get the equivalent value in goods.
Sort of opposite to how the white man thinks supply and demand works.
When the prices went low,the Indians brought more fur in order to get the equivalent value in goods.
Sort of opposite to how the white man thinks supply and demand works.
Progression from need to greed, function to fashion, affluence to effluent (as the word is used in sanitation).
Posted By: red mt
Re: FHA Market Forecast - 11/14/19 08:36 PM
Originally Posted by BigBlackBirds
Originally Posted by red mt
Fashion is what drives the market ,,,supply and demand is a far away second.
fashion sure is a fickle beast. with the big dip in temps everyone is walking around in a winter coat past my office window. good percentage of those winter coats have some kinda hood with ruff. but of those type of trimmed coats americans are primarily wearing something using synthetic fake fur or fairly low grade fur. at least here, the high dollar canada goose products are pretty exclusively worn by asians. looks like awful niche market. doubt it holds up for much longer particularly with the lower quality coyote trimmed coats that see out there causing a walmart effect on what the end user wants to be seen as exclusive/luxury item. the upside is i've seen a small number of high quality coats walk by that appear to be trimmed in something like western coon. not sure if those are canada goose product or someone else but i bet the fashion trend flips shortly. not that what ive seen so far helps short haired mink, rats, etc.
I've been thinking the same thing for awhile on coyotes,,, but when it does flip coon are sort of like ranch mink they can produced to meet demand.
But not top quality silk heavy pale coyotes.
Wild mink I think it a market that is yesterday deal ,,, but there is always Hope