DOW headed to 1,000 point drop

27,997.98
-994.43 -3.43%

It's there

27,992.33
-1,000.08 -3.45%

And still up almost 2000 points from a year ago and up 1,500 points from 4 months ago. 10,000 points up from 3 years ago.

It may not be a terrible day to buy.

Buying opportunity. Nothing is going to stop this Corona virus from spreading worldwide. People should know that. They should also know that according to sources the common flu kills around a half a million people worldwide as well.

Also, assume one is buying in a down market what stocks are down as part of the overall market sell off because of coronavirus but actually are not affected or have little to no exposures to China and shouldn’t have been down?

Trying to catch a falling knife is a gamble!!! It might be down 1000 tomorrow was today a good day to buy then???

I'm just wondering if in the next few weeks large manufacturing companies start shutting the doors here since they can't get parts form over seas. Then things will get interesting.

If Mexico, Canada start getting the epidemic things will really get bad then.

It probably is not mostly people selling off. Most of these big selloffs many times are driven by major fund holders and firms that have their computers set up to trigger sales at certain ques or markers. It is interesting that when things go haywire our first inclination is to ridicule all the dumb people in the market when most times these are triggered by a very few highly involved financially trained capitalists. We still have not developed a long term view for economic growth and thus we do these yoyo events frequently. When we run a stock market similarly to flipping houses we should anticipate these events. I personally don't have a lot of new monies to put into a falling market and at 3-4% down I don't want to sell other investments at this time to buy another.

Bryce

Looks to be back up?

Awesome!

Stock are on sale. Maybe even better tomorrow?
I've done a little buying today. Keeping a little back in case they are cheaper in the next few days. Most of my gains for the(just two months) year are gone.

Got some more apple @ 290.01 this morning.

Nope, still down. I didn't realize it was over 29 before. We got our money out about a year and half ago so hasn't been following it closely.

Get out while you have anything left-its starting to implode,like has been predicted.Nothing can keep going up forever.

bet if this keeps up i will sell off my gold and silver by Friday.

^ sale prices and clearance racks are not all what they are cracked up to be. In general they are 5% higher to began with and seem to be on sale but they're really not a good buy.

There has been many tests done on when to buy, when to sell, and the one that does no selling or buying, does better then the ones that try to out smart the markets. I for one am a buy and hold, stand pat through thick and thin.

wife and i have a number for both and other avenues to persue.not makin any more land.

i can't watch anymore,besides Springers on.

The sky is falling....... ......lol

That was a good lick!!

I just saw a satchsquashy poopin in yer back yard.

That is where you are wrong. Over time the US Stocks have always gone UP!

Not in 1929-most were ruined-your wrong.

He's not wrong. He said "over time".


There has never been a 20 year period when stocks have not gone up

Won't CNN blow this out of proportion. . I can now see their team of "so called experts" reporting the fear of recession, depression, soup lines, babies with nothing to eat and it is all because of Trump.

He’s still right because the market is up from that time. Long term, it always goes up.

Only the hi roller have to worry about it. JMO

They should have waited a while before jumping off buildings.Thats just common sense.

The awesome was for it being down. lol

Gold continues to perform well. Especially if you bought during the past 3 years.

Your an ejit if you think it keeps going up forever without a crash.

Surprised my Father in law hasn't called me he's a Bernie fan

I don't believe anyone on here ever said that.

Exactly. We said long term it always goes up. Crashed it 2008 and still is up from 2006. The market crashes all the time, but long term it goes up.

Lets see what happens today! I remember what happened to the fur market in 1988!

Let's take the emotion out of it, shall we?

Good post Kre!

If one hasn't been "deeply" invested in the markets these last decades they've missed one of the greatest financial expansions on record.
Donna and I have long placed our liquid cashola on a single bet - USA USA USA

Lots of people who are plain old workin' folk have their retirement funds tied to the market. And most of them ain't high rollers.

A lot of pension fund money is tried up in the market. If we have a 1929 type event again, it won't be pretty.

And that is why the government will save the market, if they have to ,again. Not like 1929.

I'm not gonna disagree that the government (big banking, aka "the fed") will do all it can to save the market. It has been working on that since at least 2008, thus making the recent "growth in the market" possible. The now daily repo injections "not QE" are proof of the "government" working to keep the market strong. We should soon be getting another rate cut, probably at least half a percent, if not 3/4. A 1/4 percent won't cut it this time around. QE, repo injections, and rate cuts are not real indicators of a strong thriving market. Just my opinion.

What the heck else would your retirement be tied to?

You can thank communist China.

The market is nothing like it was in 1929. Thousands of computer generated trades per second. A month from now it will be corona what, and the Dow will be on it’s way to 30,000.

If I’m wrong the Dems will be celebrating.

Squash, I don't doubt that the DOW will hit 30,000 despite the virus. The market is capable of functioning and gaining regardless of the flow of goods. NOT making a political statement here. NOT at all. Remember, Trump wants to lower the value of the dollar. He wants lower rates. He wants QE. He's getting the lower rates. He's getting QE through "not qe" repo injections. Rate cuts are easily seen in the money you deposit into a savings account. It gains little in interest. Wasn't true 40-50 years ago. You could then retire on your savings, and live off the interest. Many did. That was a retirement account. Now, money sitting in a bank, is money that is losing value. If you leave it there, it won't buy as much 20 years from now, because the interest won't keep pace with inflation. Who wants savings bonds, CD's, etc. Nobody who wants to make money. Nobody who needs their money to keep pace with the increase of prices so that they have something to live on later in life. Believe me, I am one happy camper to see my wife's 401K over doubled during the last few years. I invest in other areas to cover a couple extra bases in case something doesn't turn out as planned. So, while the DOW will likely hit 30,000 and above, the price we pay for goods will likewise rise. The continued lowering of interest rates will push more money out of savings into the market, thus driving the prices in the market up. The Boomer Generation's retirement is tied-up in the market. They are continuing to retire in high numbers, so more money is on it's way. I fully expect the market to rebound. I'm just not sure there's any cushion left after the next rate cut though. History is worth remembering. I think when Trump was running and he said, "it's a big ole bubble", he was right. I think he's pushing the fed, to push China, who is using it's position of having 3-4 of the world's largest banks and communist party control in it's industry to manipulate it's markets. The virus could be the greatest thing for the USA, if it's brought under control. It will have exposed the fatal flaw of dependence upon another country. It should permanently weaken China's industrial position, and thus weaken it's attempt to gain at least bi-lateral control of the world's economy. We need the Chinese currency to trade on a more even platform with the dollar. We aren't gonna get ahead by relying on someone else to do it. We, need to do what made America great to start with and that is to excel in providing for our needs and in providing those goods to other countries in need. I support Trump's idea that we need to make America great again. I think he spoke openly and truthfully in his campaign about the markets and economic position of the US. We are in an economic war, with China, with Russia, and no telling who else. Our US dollars are part of the weapon used in those wars. Those dollars are a target to our enemies. After 2008, we didn't change much other than lifting some restrictions that sort-of capped how far out in the water we could go with debt. This is the biggest internal problem I see. Debt continues to be given to those who don't pay their debts. This could be a problem down the road. And it's this that I think is the biggest danger to the market. The fed bought up a lot of bad debt in order to kick-start the economy, and the plan was to re-balance the books by raising interest rates and what happened? Oh, they tried it. Bought brought the whole house down. Why? Cause people that were paying their bills on home loans and car loans and refinance loans, suddenly had their bills increase. Fed backs off, markets recover, and have been on a pretty steady rise ever since. Although, the fed has repeatedly lowered rates, increased it's balance sheet by buying more bad debt, and even recently warned that if another recession were to hit, they likely wouldn't be able to lower rates enough for markets to recover. I been paying a little attention. I even heard the part where they were saying, we might not be able to save ya'll. I'm not so much a believer in "History Repeat Itself". I'm more a believer in, humans make the same mistakes. I'm not wishing any bad on the markets or the people invested in them. I pity those that don't have a back-up plan. Some of the same people on this site who will tell you that you can't trust or rely on your government, will be the first who expect the government to save them. Invest wisely! Good luck!

A few facts

Over a 38-day trading period during the height of the SARS virus back in 2003, the S&P 500 index fell by 12.8%. During the Zika virus, which occurred at the end of 2015 and into 2016 the market fell by 12.9%. There are other examples, but they all passed, and the market recovered and hit new highs.

How has your life changed since the virus has been exposed? When unemployment starts going up over 3-4 months then you can become a little concerned - the market just ran up a steep hill and now it slid down and is taking a breather. As soon as it catches its breath it will be moving up the hill again

They couldn't in 1929, we were still on a gold standard.

If anyone wants to know why the market has always "gone up" these two links tell it all, at least to the degree they have.

link

link

In 1930 the federal debt was 18% of GDP. This year it will end up being approximately 108%. That's not adding in the artificial money creation that was and is a product of QE 1,2,3 and the QE that is going as as we breathe although they claim it's not easing but it's the same program.

Unless you have sold holdings yesterday, you have lost nothing...……………

If we drop another 8% this week then there might be some good buys but don't sell to buy.

I am waiting for White to start yelling "BUY".

That was yesterday's program. There could be more ahead though.

Bought a bit yesterday, near the close. Us and Canadian banks. Still sitting on some dry powder for now. old243

Airlines may be a good look at this point..... be aware also, this slide may not be over, wait for Fridays sell off before you buy.

Wait for it...it ain't done dropping.

But I don't follow the market so take that as a guess that we haven't seen the worst of this virus yet.

No offence, but I'm glad I didn't adhere to this. I'm certain it's generally good advice. However we were over due for a correction this Virus is just an excuse. I dumped all profitable stocks on Tuesday. I'll look again at them on Friday afternoon / Monday morning and see what I will pick back up at a reduced price increasing my shareholdings or searching out other good buys. A week long correction should about due, if it extends into next week, we have issues. Look for the S&P to test 3070 to prove it's settled. It's currently 3040(ish).

I think there is a real good chance we will see 300 on SPY within a week. Don't forget Super Tuesday is March 3. Also, early next week ISM will report numbers from Feb. If it's below 50... we could see more downside

cash isn't a bad position at the moment.....

I agree with your opinion.

True. Your SQ is a monster today

yeah, there is always one that doesn't comply with the plan... SQ is it... against all odds, it's going up.. I will have to wait on that one for a pull back. Dammit.... look at Mesa and CCXI.

At least MESA has earnings.

Best change the name of this thread to Dow 4000 drop and still going to go.

You could be right !!

China needs to stabilize so they don't feel the need to dump US treasuries. This thing is just starting to be felt in our market. Look at the "China dependent" companies that are taking a beating this week. If that isn't bad enough, we're seeing the virus extend into other countries who we also place some dependence on, whether in producing or consuming goods in-exchange with us. LOTS of uncertainty. LOTS of risk in that water right now.

POUTUS might want to consider dropping tariffs to biggest economies in the world could use a shot in the arm.

But I still find it interesting that BABA is down only half as much as AMZN on a % basis.

AMZN seems to have more bad news about supplier shortages. What I hear. I'm sure you have a better feel for the pulse than I.

I can sure see where they would have supply chain issues.

The other thing that I consider is that if you have 11 million people quarantined at home, a lot of them are going to be online and buying stuff that they might ordinarily not. That could be supporting BABA a bit

He already pulled that rabbit in Phase 1.

supply chain issues are going to be a problem as a lot of our economy is now drop shipped from China...

Wait for it..

Nice bounce around lunch! Somebody shoot a 3 and ripped the net. We'll see.

It'll be awhile till this blows over and the bottom is found.

Lots of new protocols by airlines and govt's still being implimented.

What the heck else would your retirement be tied to?[/quote]


THAT"S THE POINT, diggerman!......It ain't just the "hi roller" that has to worry about it

gryhkl Looks like Obama took the lead again in stock market growth. Oh Well! There is always negative interest rates to try.

Question:

Stock market closed at -1,190.95 -4.42%

The DOW Futures closed down at -1,327 -4.93%

Does that mean they are predicting a 1327 point drop for tomorrow ?

Ok. Blood in the Street. I am buying. Might get a little worse, but am betting a LOT better in 90 days.

I think this is the big one.

About 10% drop from high so far. Wait till it drops 20% to buy. Dividend paying stocks starting to look good!

No buying here yet just waiting and watching. I would rather be late then early and if it doesn't work out then nothing hurt. I will weather the storm and stay the course and sit tight.

I bought a few things and have bids in if they drop further. I'd like to pic up some QCOM and more DAL, and disney for holding long term.

Buy some at each drop.
Corrections only average 4 months, and bear markets 15 ish months on average, it will be back up once the stuff is contained. Rest of stuff around us seems solid.
Jim

I think this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Supply chains are in dissarray around the world.

^ I agree. It isn't all about the markets that will suffer but what is worse for all of us is this coronavirus. This isn't a good thing for the world and the losses in markets dont even compare to losses of life. A sad thing.

I am 64 years old. I believe that this could be the biggest event in my life.

....I'm worried about the negative interest rates. And if the donald gets his pic for the fed we are all in trouble...IMHO of course.

I can sure understand the DIS but DAL scares the daylights out of me. I have a hard and fast rule to NEVER invest in airlines. It only takes one 'incident' to bankrupt a company. as I learned with Valu-jet in 1996. I think I would consider Boeing before I would an actual airline. How much more bad news is there in BA ??

QCOM maybe. TSM, AMAT, or INTC maybe.

I don't think we will see negative rates.

I am guessing you are referring to Judy Shelton. What is your objection to her ?

I wouldn't call it the biggest event in my life.........that would be the birth of my daughter and a couple other incidents.

But it is right up there close to the top.

I made my first trade in 1961 and have been in the market ever since.
I survived the crash of 1987, 1989. 1999, 2008 and the flash crash of 2010 ( that one was a lot of fun !! )) When the market drops a thousand points and a trillion dollars in 36 minutes and then reverses.........I like it !!

Things like these days can be depressing and worrisome but in the long run fear is your friend. Don't be afraid of volatility. It is the norm. Up until the last week volatility has been unnaturally low. This, while admittedly extreme, is just a reversion to the mean. We have lived through some records in the past few days and are still standing

Grab opportunity by the throat !

^ true. I don't listen to all the noise and don't look at my accounts in times like this. If this down spiral is more then a correction then it might be a year or two before be get back to the high. A person has to be in it for the long haul or not at all. IMO

At my age there is no "long haul"

^ Lol. Yah, I get it. Like you said, you seen many hard times in the markets since 1961, I started in 1980 and seen all those same tough times as you did. A guy lives long enough you will always see better days, any way that has been the history of markets.

Yes sir !!

What are some good picks? Banks? Oil?

Cruise lines!

Talk to someone and there are still many around that lived through the depression and WW II they would probably laugh at our whining.

Should a had your money in gold-its going thru the roof.
Good bonuses for all the miners right now.

I think DAL is dropping too far and when(if?) things turn around and people start traveling again the stock will climb quickly back to near all time highs. It's a gamble, nut I like my chances and will pick up a little each time it drops.
I do thing QCOM and DIS are better picks at these prices and I'm adding to them, but I don't want all my eggs in one basket.

and yep, I am talking about sheldon. If she is the one, I think the fed will actually be run by trump and nothing will be done without considering the effect it will have on trump's numbers.

Is there anyway the virus can arrive on packages that are shipped from places most effected by it?

You have to ask?

She advocates for sound money practices.

Talking heads said pharmaceuticals went thru the roof, some by 50% yesterday alone.
Too late now tho.

Sheldon hated low interest rates and was critical of them when Obama was in office and then advocated for the for trump. She used to also be a big advocate for open borders. And I think it's a biyt late to return to the gold standard.

She will be loyal to trump above all else-it's why he wants her. That's a bad thing for the country.

Spot on: and the hangover will last awhile, there will be significant port congestion in areas like Long Beach once product starts to flow again and the second effect will result in container shortages. The supply chain recovery curve, will not be V shaped but more L shaped.

Short term= dust masks
Long term = caskets and urns

Hiv and flu meds if your more optimistic.

White, I can see Qcom as it's no where it's 52 week low now and despite an obvious boom bust last year, it's been steadily gaining value and hasn't tested it's 52 low. INTC, has bottomed out, and with China in disarray over production and shipping, I'm not sure why they'd be a pick. They've already broken their 52 week low.
I can see TSM and AMAT, easily as solid choices. DIS leaves me wondering a bit. People are going to avoid congested international tourism sites for a while until this blows over. Additionally they just had their CEO step off. So there is a lot of uncertainty in that. I think it's going to drop down much more in the months to come as the loss of sales/revenue from this travel lock down really start to show up in the numbers. I'd really wait on that one. I think it'll be available at much better pricing in the months to come. I did own it for a while and sold off at around 105. It would have to hit 80's again before I committed.

Rate cut coming soon.

I too think AMAT is a solid long term choice. Good points about DIS !!

3 minutes to the opening bell and I have alarms going off on several stocks at new lows. AMAT is one of them


Cfowler: I sure hope the fed does NOT cut rates

Quarantining pets in China now, after a dog tests positive. Just gets more "interesting" as we go. Historic times.

She will only have one vote. I thought your objection was on an economic basis. Personally, I think it would be good to have someone who thinks differently than the others

That didn't take long to drop another 1000.

Quarantine them to the soup pot.

I am a layman when it comes to the stock market so I am not pretending knowledge when I ask this question.

The Dow has gone down for a week since Corona started being talked about, why would it stop going down now that the virus keeps spreading?

Belittle Chinese all we want, this is no longer a Chinese problem. The private sector market knows that trying to solve science issues with political mindsets does not work no matter who is driving the political bus. The market is in this case the canary in the mine. Jobs and economic growth or lack there of will be the longer term losses. This actually got going two months ago and what did we as a nation do?

Bryce

Anyone looking at the metals' market? Nearly every other market it dependent upon it in some fashion. IMO there's a lot of good buying opportunities for those who are gonna wait for things to re-start anyways. Short-term or long-term the strategies differ. I like a little of both. I also like to have a tangible asset as a safety net. The traditional assets of gold and silver are looking pretty good right now. Gold will rise, and silver is totally undervalued at 80-1, even up to 100-1, and it's falling again today. I'm old enough, I grew up with those that lived through the Great Depression, as the adult providers in their family. While I'm not comparing now to then, the "then" shaped the now, so it's worth knowing about. Many of those I knew, most dead now, came out of the poverty they were in before the depression. The depression affected them, but many were poor before it started. As the recovery began, they had tangible assets that they turned into wealth. Wealth many of those families still have today. There are many stories of many families throughout America that this happened to. Still, it was the greatest transfer of wealth we have seen up to the present. The richest got richer, and many of the poor moved into middle class. "Share-cropper to land owner" is the story I hear most often. Times are different, I get it. The parameters change. Fundamentals remain the same though, IMO. There were losers too. I hear the stories of success more than the stories of failure. Somebody went under for someone else to get higher. What is occurring now in the market, with the virus, is unexpected. It's like we got the kill-shot EMP from the sun, and everything shut down, but the power is still on. How unexpected is it though? Bill Gates and others ran a simulation of a corona virus pandemic in October 2019. Their conclusions were, 65 million deaths. Never mind the death count, what do ya bet someone in the room wondered how that was gonna affect their economic position? Who are they, and where did they invest their monies in the recent months? What investments have the world banks been making? What is the price of goods (physical assets) in other countries? If you answer all those questions, the logical conclusion would be to invest where they do.

It isn't so much the actual virus that is causing this drop.

It is the FEAR of what might happen. A company that earned a dollar a share last quarter may only earn 90 cents next quarter. Buyers are not willing to pay as much for that 90 cents in earnings as they were for the dollar previously. That, at least, is rational.

But at some point on the price curve a stock can be selling for less than it costs to produce the 90 cents. That is when things will stabilize regardless of what the virus is doing. If you can buy 100 dollar bills for 80 dollars a piece, wouldn't you do it ?

How many dividend-required investors are there in the pension fund sector? That in itself could create a domino-effect in our economy. State economies are at-stake with what is occurring. Who's gonna bail them out? Are they too big to fail?

This has been predicted for several months now.

https://www.investopedia.com/why-stocks-will-plunge-18-by-year-end-despite-fed-rate-cuts-4774639

Things don't feel quite as frantic this morning as they did the past few days. That could all change this afternoon.. But at some point, the sellers will run out of things to sell !

I totally agree that this is not a surprise to most. Most that are actually following it, prepared for their opportunity to benefit from it. That's just part of being aware. Just a matter of positioning yourself for the ride.

The old saying in the commodities market is buy the rumour sell the news. The thought being once the news breaks the money was already in on the rumour and when the news breaks maybe only the uninformed public is left and they don't throw much punch.

With this deal Grandma had a toe infection to start, it was not life threatening and went unnoticed, then the toe got worse and had to come off. She needs a new comfortable shoe. Next her condition worsens and her foot comes off , no need for new shoe. She needs crutch so crutch sales go up. Next leg comes off, abandon crutch buy wheelchair. There is no stopping til Grandma gets to a stable place. With this virus there was concern when it was in China but as it has grown there just is no stable place. Its not like one event where the money is in or out, but a constant fear so when there is new money coming in then they are afraid and dumping as well as what was already there it causes a snowball effect then its even worse. They start looking for some place else to park their money til it all blows over and things get stable again.

The above is for entertaining the mind only !

The CDC has outbreak/pandemic protocol independent from who sits in the Whitehouse, who is the speaker of the house, etc.

Quarantines (first in 50 years) etc were enacted early on based on the best information available at the time, which unfortunately was coming from a reliable liar, Red China.

A sham impeachment dominated the political agenda for weeks distracting the nation and tying up resources.

Nancy was consumed with tearing up documents that weren't hers.

If CDC is independent of the WH why is the WH censoring their efforts? Impeachment and Corona? So we can't walk and chew gum at the same time. So who is the first in line when listening to China, the state department?

When the country needs to funnel through one person we can anticipate these types of responses.

Bryce

Sure thing. Trump wants the corona virus to spread and is controlling the CDC to make sure that happens.

White

things are leveling off now. I doubt there will be another drop today. Monday on the other hand is a long way away.

Why not wait until this hits bottom and even a day or two of gains before buying in?

It rarely goes up more than a percent or two a day. I understand not all companies/stocks are the same, as in some are gaining now, but folks who jumped the gun on alot of stocks a couple days ago are looking at 10_20 percent drop already.

If the CDC was on it maybe they was yelling, but no one could hear for the drums beating Impeach, Impeach !!. And since we do have only one spokes person, being the " liberal press", looks like they would have said something. But I think they was chumming the waters for something else.
I'm just glad some of the traffic was shut off from coming in, can't see anyone wanting open boarders calling for that.
Any way what could have been done differently to help China esp. if they didn't want help? The world is not over and this too shall pass, just maybe not in the jittery investors time schedule. More markets will develop and if the dooms day press will be satisfied with the upcoming election maybe the country can still be great and keep our Republic.

Because not all stocks respond the same as the Market. SQ for example has been bucking the trend consistently. Even rising. So you can't look at the whole market and make the decisions to stay or go. Make your picks, watch them closely, evaluate your entry point and go. No different than any other day, just more opportunity in this chaos than on a normal week. This week provides many with the chance to enter a stock they were waiting on a pull back for. I have a couple of those.

AMAT behaving well today

There is more than one way to do this. If you want exposure to a particular stock...........you don't have to actually buy it to get that exposure. If you want to employ a tactic like that it is advantageous to do so in a falling market.

Lot of time left in the day yet. Should be lots of rate-cut talk this weekend.

Apple stocks should be a sure bet when this bottoms out. If we should happen to go into a "Super Recession" as suggested on the news. Consumers will always buy electronics and cellular devices. If there is a recession, Disney will be hard hit with less attendance at their theme parks.

I hear you brother

MSFT is also showing signs of life

NCLH aka Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd has been up today. $40 Cruises anyone? You may not make it back but (This word is unacceptable on Trapperman) its cheap!

Several that sold a week ago are sitting near the bottom with a pocket full of cash ready to re-enter. There was some big sellers in December. Some of those sells are looking pretty good right now on the buy end of things.

The real issue here is the Virus itself. It is not about how much we will lose or can make in the stock market. Most of us this site are older and have older siblings and many have parents who are still with us. If this Virus takes a stronghold in America before it is contained, some of us may be affected or will know somebody who is. This is the real threat. The stock market will most likely recover when this is behind us. But there are some people close to us who may not recover.

I have been following this subject the whole time.

I am gazing through the window into this fascinating entity , only grasping certain things , with limited understanding, but nonetheless , highly appreciative of the sheer depth and ability needed to grasp the details. I am learning along the way.

In this time of insane reactions and panic scrambles in the market, it is a very good thing to have an educational exchange of thoughts and possible tactical decisions among minds.

In the multitude of councilors , there is wisdom . Many thoughts to help through this time.

Me, just keep the cows going for now and breath some clean air and hope for another year.

Last few minutes got exciting with the Dow.

Strange close for sure. SPY in the green after the close.

Impossible for me to pick the bottom and markets don't go straight up. I buy every other week regardless of what the markets are doing. Key point being you only loose when you sell. Everything I buy pays dividends. Even something like "T" currently paying 5.91% is starting to look good.

"T" is more like a bond.. pays decently and has it's ups an downs but is fairly stable. Ford isn't a bad look at this price for the same reasons.

5 minutes to the opening bell and it looks like an up day..........until someone sneezes. Beware ISM at 10 a.m ET

Who was the investor that said the best time to buy is when there is blood on the streets?

Watching with my pick list in hand.

ISM = 50.1 A real squeaker !! Could go either way

Watching to see if this start is the momentum created near the close Friday. Lot of banking influence in some overseas markets before we opened this morning.

Blood in the streets. Still a ways to go before that could occur. Big capital still sitting on the sidelines. Just a lil nose-bleed last week.

There is many indicators in the financial world that may or may not dictate the markets on any given day. Ag, Travel, Oil etc. etc. just a small field on indicators to create a full picture. With that said, indicators are just that no one can predict the markets totally.

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a record low of 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January 2020. The PMI is as important to follow as any and global economy's.

PMI's are definitely top of the list watchers.

Freight indexes another. For me anyways.

Heard this morning some trading platforms have crashed so people can't access their accounts.

I am seeing crossed and locked spreads on some options series

It seems that the market wants to go back up. The big sell-off seems to be due to concern over "what-ifs" not on the current fundamentals of the overall economy.
Just my opinion.

We could also be seeing the market go up based on shorts unwinding their positions

^ there was a lot of buying last Friday as things went south. Buying or selling has a huge implications for the direction of markets. That is why when investors panic sell and see some clouds in the sky they jump ship, creates a false market in a sense.


I'm still watching the storm, not in any hurry to make a move yet. If it drops under 25K I might then get my feet muddy then. I want the lowest I think I can buy to reap the largest gains for the long haul.

I'll bet it closes up for the week..... way up....

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets

Way up.

I guess it depends...

http://jamaicahospital.org/newsletter/how-long-can-viruses-live-outside-the-body/

Mike

Baron Rothschild

Some of you may not be able to open this link

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ro...d-heavy-volume-51583165342?mod=hp_LEAD_4

close +5..09%

Pretty active day for sure

Biggest one day gain in DOW history today.

There goes the 1/2 point rate-cut. Odd that you'd cut rates after a surge in the markets...or, is it? Writing on the wall...

Apparently you should not give Wall Street a surprise cut?

I think that is what the market is asking !! Maybe it's worse than they thought !! OH NO !!!

The movement of money makes money. Up, down, don't matter. More it moves, the more it moves. Could be a bumpy day.

Right. I don't really care which way it moves , as long as it moves.

The stock market and the general economy are not always correlated very well. The economy will cause more concern politically for all then the stock market. With roughly 50% of people not in the market, employment, hours, wages etc. are bigger deals. The big companies stock piled trillions after 2008 and they will probably do that again this round if we get in that sub 2% growth rate or lower.

Bryce

Wait for it....

According to the morning headline, market is predicted to jump today following Biden's resurgence in the primary. The fed injected 120 billion into the repo markets yesterday, most since the 2008 slump. Plus the rate cut. And the market still dropped. There's a disconnect between the markets and the economy. This ride isn't over. Trump wanting more rate cuts, and further devaluing of the dollar is pure madness IMO. This will just result in more Americans paying more for the everyday things they buy already. Debt based economies fail. It devalues the fiat currency, and ultimately they fail. According to history that is.

There's more action than "Whack-a-Mole" right now. Treasuries are getting pounded.

Crank up the printing presses print more money-gold will skyrocket and you'll need a wheelbarrow full of dollars to buy a loaf of bread.

The FED will do as Yellen suggest and buy directly into the market at some point. There will be too much blood in the streets otherwise. Of course that will increase the availability of cash, while trying to mop up the over-supply. Inflation will occur, less opportunity to buy into existing markets, wealth transfer. It's play-book.

On the other hand, there's some GREAT buys out there right now! Just sayin'

Bread ?

We don't need no stinking bread !!!!

Send us some POUTINE !!!!

w

How about a 1000 point rise????

Ok 1173.41 rise!!

3/4/2000 Well another crazy day Im thinking another dead coon bounce and more crazy days yet to come.

Just gettin' warmed up. This could get historic.

Or hysteric

Might see negative yields on treasuries even without the Fed

That’s what Obomber did, (quantitative easing) and a loaf of bread here is still less than $3.00.

I’m with walleyed, send down some poutine , even if it is a heart attack on a plate.

All passengers should fasten their seat belts and brace for excitement! Today and Friday are gonna be worth watching I bet.

already on the way down. I hate emotional investors.........

The "human" factor adds dimension to the markets. Emotion is the catalyst of black swan events. There's still room to maneuver and gain position, that will drive the market in this virus atmosphere. Up, down, really doesn't matter to the market. I think you (meaning, anyone) need to look a little down the road and position yourself for things to go into a transition stage of restructuring with a lot of the market. The dollar value system is in a state of flux. That in itself is a contradiction to the adoption of it by the rest of the world. Wealth and credit are added in the same columns by those calculating. True valuations are practically non-existent. Investing is a gamble. Gambling can be an emotional activity. It becomes more emotional when the players are dependent or expectant of a derivative (which pretty much covers all investors). I think we have a lot of investors in America that have become dependent on derivatives, and a pretty constant increase in their portfolios. We were in a slow-down period, in spending, in a lot of areas, even before going into the virus market. China's GDP was falling, that was gonna have some affect. Feb. early reports on US GDP numbers point to a down month for us. That's a hit to the market for derivative dependents. Across the board freight numbers have been dropping. The slow-down was in-effect, the virus appears to have accelerated the situation and saturated the atmosphere. This is becoming evident in the transportation sector, where airlines are now making cuts to flights and parking planes. The trickled-down effect is yet to be fully calculated, but the trickle-down affect in the market is making itself known. You're either laughin' or cryin'. Not to mention the Fed is talking another rate-cut this month and an additional one later in the year. Bail-out money is on the way too! Lots happen' out there! Oh yeah, there is the capital that is fleeing into the foreign markets and the "opportunities" to be had there. Lot of big investors in over-seas markets and those markets are starting to look good to American investors. I might also mention that I like emotional investors and sellers. You just have to shop for the right emotion.

S&P futures trading halted sunday night due to 5% drop triggering automatic halts

Long ways to the bottom. No reason to rush.

short !!!!!!!

The short is dropping prices in another market I'm interested in.

Trading halted after 4 minutes. Pretty chaotic

Yep. Wonder if this will be the first break of the day. Gotta let the hyper-ventilators regroup.

I suspect there will be more

Everything taking a beating, even gold. Cryptis are down 10% or more across-the-board

Au still performing well from start of year. Ag lagging. Both hitting the market to off-set other losses it seems. Could be good for the savvy investor. Lot of activity in the physical asset market.

Been say'n since the start of this.........."wait for it".


Not sure we're there just yet!

I bought in at 1700 down this morning. I Hate to see it happening but it’s a great investment opportunity.

DOW down 2100 at 7 minutes after the hour

The bottom is in sight but the market is not there yet, some kinda crazy.

It does sort of feel like capitulation. At some point the sellers will be exhausted. At SOME point !

The fed

Oh, boy. And with oil taking an enormous hit, Alaska is in BIG trouble.

Somebody better do a welfare check on grackle.

All them Permanent Fund MOOCHERS might have to go out and get a job !!!

The wreckage is appearing throughout most of our markets and in similar ways throughout the world markets. Many looking for that safe haven/guaranteed return. Money needs to move, but it has to move into something. Lots of holding going on it appears to me. Waiting on Fed intervention would be my guess for most.

Might be a mistake but I bought Friday and going to do the same in a day or two.Have to admit I did get a case of the jitters.

May be the only thing that lets some of the airlines and cruise ship companies hold on.

When billions of $ of wealth disappear overnight was that wealth ever really there?

All of this just reminds me of the grain markets, the speculators will drive it down and then up, and hope you are on the right side.

If a tree falls in the woods does it make noise?

Well the past run is more than noise and yes it was real and still is, its just that the money was in the pocket of a bull that just got his pocket picked by a bear.

To tell the truth it is always a little more difficult for me to understand the stock market, mostly because there is not a short for every long. I just find it much easier to watch the commodities where there is a long for every short. Its easier to watch for spikes in volume and open interest and see a turn around.

I think many people would be surprised at how many non speculators or major users of commodities lock in prices for their products. That way they have known supplies and known costs and can factor that into wholesale or retail prices for the future.

Bryce

lock in a loss on cattle today ... the guys that are ok are the guys that raise the cattle cow to finish..rest of you guys gamble with the jews

take the wheat market there is no delivery clause in the contract... might as well play tiddly winks.... the stock market is a house of cards ... BUT DONT SELL!!!! lol

Could you possibly explain a little more about the no delivery clause? If you want to test that buy a contract of the lead month and on first notice day just wait and see what happens.

It does seem a bit imaginary .......all on computers , nothing tangible

But tangible enough that I can convert ones and zeros into cash in less than ten seconds and into a check in the mail in 72 hours

Money is worthless until you spend it-only then it has value.

There were alot of people who thought that way in the 20's. Some of them jumped off buildings.

real assets is where its at

Just when I get into realism and stare the "love of money" in the eye, I usually reread Silas Marner ( which I do every few years) just to get my compass set back to true north.

How is part ownership of a real company, not ownership of real assets ?

How is ownership of stock in a real company, not a real asset ?

With the Saudi's play on oil the last few days to get at Russia we now have oil prices in the US below the cost of production for most oil produced. That is billions of real money lost in a day and losses will occur everyday per barrel, so a lot of equity is going to uses up.
Yes a nation with less then 15 million people can drop oil prices by 20% or more and large nations and 100s of million people will take a huge hit. Russia was chest thumping with the Saudis and it did not work out well for any oil exporter other than the Saudis who can produce oil at below $15 a barrel.
Probably won't last real long but it sure gets the attention quickly and they can drop that shoe any time they want to.
Bryce

Right ! And I can't really imagine a farm or ranch operation of scale NOT using futures to lock in known costs in the future.

That said, two types of traders use the futures markets. Speculators and hedgers. Rancher/farmers/manufacturers/airlines who use the actual product fall into the hedgers category. But of all that activity the hedgers still only comprise less than 3% or the futures market

its in the hands of a ceo, its in the hands of a board of directors, ponzii schemes ... all of them why to they scream dont pull out?? why are the cooperative dividendes paye after you are dead ?? REAL IS REAL
I might not have much but what i do have is real and its productive . eg equipment that allos me to work !!

The Saudis say they can survive on oil down to $8.00 per barrel. The question is for how long. Their social welfare budget is totally dependent on the oil market. They can't sustain that type of hit to revenue for very long

MMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmmmm Whenever I sell something there is a buyer. If I also sell that same thing SHORT there is also a buyer. So, either way...........someone other than me is LONG

where do you collect the facts for this??

Here ya go

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/determining-oil-prices.asp

When the big company's buy grain from farmers they must hedge that grain each day as a safeguard on their bonding. I'm not as up on this as I once was. The Feds watch that to prevent big commercials from gambling and losing and thus can't pay the farmers.

I knew a guy that ran a large elevator that didn't hedge like he was supposed to and gambled instead and went belly up and owed farmers millions of dollars. A lawyer friend of mine took his case and defended him and was able to keep him out of jail. Some farmers were not happy but lawyers do there work completely against popular opinions sometimes, even if it is not popular, I think he proved the farmers had been negligent on their deferred pricing contracts, somehow.

Not sure I understand what you're trying to say. The stock price is absolutely NOT in the hands of a CEO or a board of directors. It is firmly in the hands of MR MARKET. ........as we have seen in the past 10 days.

I am not familiar with "cooperative dividendes paye after you are dead"...............

GAAP numbers are real. GAAP dividends are real.
If I own 400,000 worth of stock in a company I can borrow 200,000 with the click of a mouse.

If ownership of assets is not real.....................who would loan that sort of money ??

why would you borrow against money you already have?? if its such a asset you ould just pull the money abd spend id

If ownership of assets is not real.....................who would loan that sort of money ??

the same guys that want the ponzi scheme to continue

can you sell your paper to me ?? i dont care what it says on it

heres the ponzi scheme of the stock market DONT SELL !!!! DONT BUY REAL GOLD lol We will print more money to take care of you

Don't most people borrow against assets they already own ???

Sure I could pull it out and spend it but I am greedy and would prefer to make more



If I thought the price of what I already own is going to continue up.................. why would I not borrow money to buy more ???? Provided that the price appreciation exceeds the cost of capital.

ummm if the ceo makes a bad loan to his grandchild and bankrupts the co does it have a effect??>

I think you need to get a better grip on reality !!

lol I knew a guy that was rich.... he thought he could smell oil...... also knew a guy that thought he controled pork bellies both of them died poor ..
unless you can show me a asset that you can hold in youre hand i m not that interested

my grip is fine ... thank you

Hydropillar: Yes there is ponzi schemes that go on , but that is by unscrupulous company's or individuals. That does not make the free market that we have bad just because of a few bad ones. How else would you advocate the market work, short of have a gov entity set prices or own the company's and everyone would work for the government for a pound of rice?

talk to me in the future when your in a better mood to listen

Then it is my opinion that you don't understand the market. You might be better off buying bullion..........though I doubt it in the long run

in my honest opinuin things come down to parity ..... the idea that we can print money till we are all rich is a falacy altho has worked well last 50 yrs

I think i understand the market

I heard the stock was up on kleenex tissue company , due to the crying on Wall Street.

Well you can always put your money in the stock market, a few chickens, a cow ,some pigs and a goat or two. There is nothing wrong with that.

What market?

Don't say the free market, we aren't in one. You cannot deny that the artificial inflation of the M1 money supply has played a major role in the markets?

I'll admit the simplicity of the Amish life style is appealing sometimes.

oh is there a ppt??? why would it be needed in a free market ???

Absolutely right !

In many ways commodity trading like corn, beans, wheat etc. is not so unlike international auctions for fur or the other markets. Most sales occur outside of the futures but the futures more and more establish a price or price range. The more we rely on the futures for things like establishing prices used for crop insurance protection etc. the more likely the prices in the market determine the market. One reason most of the farmers I worked with did not like markets or any markets for selling was the frequent ups and downs and swings. As risky and dangerous in many ways their businesses are they did not like markets moving up and down. Market get established by those willing to speculate or buy based on orders for others etc. These are smaller farm operators for the most part and it show the conflictive nature of their lives. High risk occupation with a can do behavior not liking volatility in prices. Those that could deal with the nature of the business did quite well or very well. Those that could either left or struggled emotionally their whole career.

Bryce

I really appreciate your posts Bryce !!

Thank you bblwi. Any fur market/ commodity line comes up I wait to see your take. Thank you.
With this post you have also discribed trappers and the fur market.

One of the problems with farmers hedging is never knowing what the basis will be, ideally it would converge with the price in the notice month but it don't always. I think the average farmer is better to average out by selling in maybe 8 months of the year. Of course then you have feed lots that hedge feeders and finished out and bean meal and corn intake.

Yep, good post bblwi.

Will be interesting to see what measures are presented to stimulate some positive numbers.

"JPMorgan equity strategists said that Monday's slump was exaggerated given that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates to zero and the Trump administration has said it will unveil a stimulus plan."

The markets don't seem too impressed with the talk, more action may be needed.

The main value of ethanol plants in say western MN, eastern NE, western IA etc. is they do not really raise the price of corn, but greatly reduce the expenses needed to get the corn to a market or processor. That reduces basis risk a lot for those producers hours or hundreds of miles from the barges etc. If I can get corn to a market for 25 cents a bushel instead of 40-50 cents per bushel I can net $30 or so dollars per acre with normal yields of corn and with a couple thousand acres of corn that is a new pickup or a decent down payment on a combine etc.

Bryce

Things seem to be settling out, bottom may have been met or close to it.

Look for an up or down around the election, depending on who wins.

Seems like the market generally goes down with an incumbent presidential election.

I expect we'll go through a few more ups and downs before we find a "bottom". People and products are going to have to move "reliably" again before we reach a "stable" point IMO. The market is too reactionary. Not to mention, it's formed a built-in expectancy in many investors. Some of them are pretty shook right now. Others may be over-confident.

I doubt it will ever come back after the mass die offs from covid once it takes hold in earnest.

I believe after reading a bunch of your posts you have earned the name "Captain Sunshine".

Heres another ray for you-over 600 dead in Italy now out of 10,000.The whole population is under house arrest(quarantine).
Just wait until it takes hold worldwide.

Wait till It goes thru James Bay. Ontario
like poop thru a goose, BOCO

You're right in Death's Cross-hairs with your 60 + Y.O. age group.

Might as well Bequeath me all your traps right now.

You certainly won't be needing them

w

There was a girl 20 yrs old came from Italy to Chicago, she got on Amtrak and went to St.Louis. Comes down sick tested positive. They scrubbed down 2 trains and two stations, I guess she switched, they tried to warn everyone on the trains, that was on news, not this article. They didn't put her in the hospital ,sent her home under quarantine with family. Then in a day or two her dad and sister went to a party or dance of some kind. The law has them in their house and said if they come out they will be arrested or fined or something.violated quarantine

Doc told me I had the lungs of a 17 year old.

He meant brain

OK White 17 said: Right ! And I can't really imagine a farm or ranch operation of scale NOT using futures to lock in known costs in the future.

That said, two types of traders use the futures markets. Speculators and hedgers. Rancher/farmers/manufacturers/airlines who use the actual product fall into the hedgers category. But of all that activity the hedgers still only comprise less than 3% or the futures market

Hydpropillar ask: where do you collect the facts for this??

Maybe this is what you are looking for. I paid a guy $20 to tell me in the early "70's . I'm passing it on to you for free,Lol. And that's about all its worth when used by itself. But this might help to get past the ponzi scheme feeling, when you can see all transactions are accounted for. The big guys have to send in their transactions and whether long or short and goes to make the commitment of traders. It used to if you had less than 100 contracts you didn't need to worry about it , don't know the size now. The big hedgers and big speculators have to list what they are and when totaled up whats left is small traders not required to report.

commitment of traders

Looks like today could test just about everyone's resolve

I will ride it out. At this point I have already lost so I may as well hang on and hope to make some of it back in the next couple years before I retire.

The cuts are getting a little deeper. The herd mentality is starting to appear. More drastic steps will be taken. The repo market has expanded almost as exponentially as the virus. You can extend credit, you can put more cash into an economy, but you can't make any of it work without the people and products moving. Probably gonna wanna find a comfortable chair as things develop over the next month.

Wow, didn't think it'd drop that much after the last week.

I guess when people freak out and close whole countrys down, it has to drop.

Really tempting !!!

No kidding. Just mentioned an "opportunity" to my wife. Got the eye-roll. Hate missing opportunities. She hates when it's not as good as I think it will be. I think the price will drop, but availability may be too limited.

I actually look forward to days like this. Mixed emotions for sure.

Who dares, wins !

im suprised gold and silver down too ... feeder cattle limit down

Exactly! I'm not all that brave, I'll admit, but if you price it right, I'll take the risk. Within reason. I'm not borrowing. I'm hearing there's a lot of margin calls being made, and that's causing a dump in some sectors. Also hearing that the vultures are circling with cash, waiting on the twitching to stop. Some don't seem to think it's even started good yet. I'm watching...

I'll bet there are a lot of margin calls. Plus, consider all the folks bailing on mutual funds and ETF's. Then those have to sell stock to cover redemptions. Vicious circle.

Still don't think it has hit bottom yet.

I see what you're saying is occurring. A lot of fear feeding on the fear. I'm gonna stay in the shallows for a little longer. Some of this is above my pay-grade.

Just taking little bites

That bear ain't no pick pocket, he's a downright train robber !

I picked up someone from the airport yesterday, people are scared, wearing mask or holding towels over their face, walking around with hand sanitizer. Biden and Bernie are nuts, even my liberal friends do not care for either but the media is hyped to pump up the "anti Donald", when Trump wins the election a sense of normalcy will return and this thing will go back up. Just need to take a guess on where the bottom is or wait to buy on an upswing.

On the counter my business is already getting hurt, it was warm all week and I received zero calls, that is not typical for this time of year.

There's no way to guess the bottom or the direction. Pretty unlikely to be successful at predicting the level at which it turns and for how long.

Time IN the market is more important than trying to time the market.

Some quality companies are on sale these days. Just have to determine what you are comfortable with.

So when this panic bottoms out, what stocks will be the first to recover??

I understand. It also seems prudent to at least attempt to buy when low. I have wanted to have a small holding for the past year but it did not seem wise to me to buy at all time highs so I put my money into equipment for my company instead, there may be deals on equipment soon as well and a new off road lift may be the better investment for me. Lots to think about.

Not even close to being competent when it comes to picking stocks but airlines are getting thrashed and oil is low, they may be in a position to recover quickly when this subsides.

Good way to look at it !!

Good question.

What interests me is ......what happens when a lot of people realize that working from home is just as viable as going to the office. Will that trend continue ? I suspect that tech will play a big role in that .

By the same token.........................P&G is going to be working three shifts to catch up on toilet paper

I just threw a bunch of money at GE this morning when it hit $7.

Just watching dow was down-9.3% went up to -8.2 % in seconds makes ya wonder if that is a influx from the ppt and how many dollars it would take to raise the dow a per cent

I suspect when we see things like that it is triggered by algorithms programmed to buy/sell at pre-programmed levels.

Look at the S&P 500 chart just in the past 3-5 minutes

Could just be a headline or a rumor too

wow there was a 1000 point swing up ..

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3551136-fed-moves-to-calm-treasury-financing-markets

"The NY Fed announced plans Thursday to inject vast amounts of money into the financial system, totaling at least $1.5 trillion. This accelerates weeklong efforts by the NY Fed aimed at easing fears that companies will lose access to capital."

For grhkl: Obama is now the stock market king!

Free market at work

I wonder 8f they will admit finally to QE4

I don't think QE4 is going to work and I think they know it. With treasury yields approaching zero already, there is no downward space to push yields, to encourage buying risk assets.

This is going to require fiscal stimulus, not monetary...but that's not likely to happen with Pelosi in control of the house

The free market ain't dead, she just needs a wheelchair.

During QE123 the Fed purchased treasuries and risk assets. They have been purchasing risk assets since at least September


Fiscal stimulus?

Yup the free market at work.


The free market has been dead for a long time

By 'risk assets' I mean equities and corporate debt. It would take an amendment to the Federal Reserve Act to allow that.

I've taken a few little bites. They all bit back. They're down about $2 each. Times a couple thousand, and I feel like I went swimming with piranhas. Told a friend that. He explained that I had a skeeter bite. He was hemorrhaging after today. Pretty sure the sharks must've got him. Quit feeling sorry for myself when I realized he'd lost more than I make in 10 years. Some folks got hurt today. The withdrawing, closing accounts, selling. Rough one, and it don't appear over.

It's no surprise what the fed did or has been doing. We should have never done QE anything. Let the strong survive, and new blood in the game. That's free market capitalism. We've had the fed playing ref and nursemaid to the market. That has changed the dynamics of things.