1 million dead?

Saw the latest self proclaimed expert on the tube just now said the U.S. death toll will be near 1 million !!!! That bug better step it up, as he went on to say we had around 2700 dead so far . THAT'S a long way to go to get to 1 million. NO NOT world wide the U.S. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Only 996,852 more to go!!

So much bad info out there it’s best to stop listening maybe just doom and gloom at every turn.

I heard the lizard people released this to help with their war on the grey alien shapeshifters. The only ones effected by this are the grey alien shapeshifters. Oh and you just read this on the internet so it has to be true.

They reported on the news large trucks loading bodies at hospitals in NYC?
Sounds like things are going to get a lot worse and social order could break down.
People being forced to stay home with no money or food could lead to some very bad things in cities.

Nearly nine million people live in NYC yet they only have morgue space for 3,500. Like all cities that have been controlled by liberals for decades they are broke and woefully ill-prepared for any kind of large-scale disaster.

Yet it is now everyone else's fault they don't have what they need to deal with this.

And the numbers still aren't adding up.

The reefer trucks make a nice fear-mongering photo-op though.

Morgues must be all full of dead people,and cant bury them fast enough.

Boco most places are not having funeral services due to the social distancing .... The worst is on its way I fear .....

1000 dead in NYC and they need reefers to handle it? In a city that big? Makes no sense.

No wonder the democrats are panicking.

They're believing there own fake news lol. LINK

NYC has an average of over 400 deaths a day, and an additional 1200 in the last month has them putting them in trucks?

Well Hobbie, not sure why they would panic, them folks are still likely to vote.

Zim

Well they are just adding to the problem-cold storage preserves the virus-they should be incinerating those infected bodies right away.

Hahahaha!

You guys have inspired me to tune in to Rachel Madcow just for some laughs.

Good zinger Zim!

Yep , some serious game play

And how many are replacements , not in addition to ?

How did she ever survive the "madcow pandemic" ???

My wife has a compromised immune system, she was exposed at work, she now has a fever, headache,sore throat and a cough. She didnt come home from work, she got a Hotel so she wouldnt make me sick as I am coming off a suspected case of blastomycosis (caused by breathing in fungal spores) and have been very sick.

Its easy to take a cynical look at it until you realize the effects it can have on you personally.

Prayers sent for you and your wife.



Charlie

Most people cannot really understand the implications of something doubling every 3-4 days. Takes a while to get to 60,000 but when you do it is then @ 1 million within 2 weeks.

I will be praying for your family, donnersurvivor....best wishes & prayers from Kansas.

Sorry to hear. Prayers sent for both of you.

X2

They're reporting the cases have DROPPED 2 days in a row. In what world is that doubling?

I should say it this way.... The talking head doctor said "amount of new cases". Also dropping in China and S.Korea.

Wow,,,your like Einstein or sum thin.

Well some doubting thomases on here refuse to believe there is a problem-so can you answer?einstein?

Title of the thread is one million DEAD not one million cases....

I am talking about deaths.....death #'s have not dropped. I thought we were talking about a million DEATHS. Deaths here are doubling every 3-4 days...

3/23.....580

3-28....1750

3-30......3000+

I must have heard a different statement from Trump then what is posted here. What I heard him say was we could lose over a million if we do not continue the quarantine!!. He was hopeing to keep under 100,000 if he does this quarantine. Also that the quarantine could be more country wide if nessary.

What quarantine? He quarantined someplace today?

Pretty sure I remember you bashing Trump for closing travel from China from the get go.Then you flip flopped when your girlfriend closed YOUR boarders.

You bring up a great point. More needs to be done to protect those with pre-existing conditions which put them at severe risk. To rely on young people to stay away from crowds will never happen in my opinion.
I sincerely wish you and yours the best of luck with your current situation.

So what-I also said the virus was a nothingburger.

Everybody is at high risk from dying from the common flu and pneumonia are the same people that are at high risk from dying from covid-19.. They estimate slightly higher death toll in the United States than the common flu. Is everybody sure there's a big difference here?

It would appear that there is a substantial difference between kung flu and the normal flu.....or they would not shut down the world economy....unless that is the goal. Now if you get someone very important to verify that the goal is to shut down the world economy I suggest you video tape that conversation.

The state governors have been doing the shut downs. Trump gave the extra stay home 30 days until end of April.
We're I live in Lancaster pa. Only essential people are allowed on roads after 8 pm to to 5am. Quartine was the?wrong word maybe.

Never bashed Trump and never flip flopped,I said no matter how much you try to wall yourself off from the rest of the world you are still part of the world-it dont work that way.
As you must now realize with the worst rate of covid on the planet.

Crickets chirping.....

I understand what you meant now, thanks.

At the briefing the president did state that models showed 1-2 million plus would die in the USA if we did none of the preventative measures. He was hoping to keep that to 100-200K in his presentation. How effective have been or will be our current measures we won't know until June or later. We got a very late start in being serious on what we should do or were willing to do so that lapse has been and will be costly in many ways but that is behind us now and we deal with the reality we have. About the only way we will lessen the real horror of this first wave of he virus is that we have the research and science and the dollars to quickly discover abatement strategies or drugs that reduce severity. We have not taken serious the social distancing for the most part so the virus will be everywhere. We need to find ways to save the seriously ill from dying if we can. We are getting a handle on the incubation times but we are uncertain how long the virus can live in certain environments and without knowing who is positive and who is not we are basically just guessing and we will be for a long time if we have only test 1 million people in the USA. That is .3% of the population so those that carry the disease and don't know it may number in the tens of millions and many of those feel their freedoms are being taken from them if they are told or ordered to do what governments and institutions tell them what to do. We have had some of the most drastic self distancing and stoppages from private sector firms etc. and even the non government pleading goes unheaded by millions.
If we had ample supplies of equipment I would wear a mask every time I left to do an errand but that is denying those that really need the protection during times of severe shortage.

Bryce

The amount of cases has dropped because they are out of tests. The amount of dead is still doubling.

It is a good point. When essential businesses are being forced to stay open with no option for unpaid leave, and paid leave only available to confirmed cases.... it is exposing a lot of very high risk people those workers come home to.

The amount of cases has dropped because they are out of tests. The amount of dead is still doubling.

Slightly higher? 0.02% vs 2% is a bit more than slightly, lol. Guess math isn't your strong suit?

Ok I looked at yesterdays numbers (as reported) around 2500 dead. Todays numbers around 2900. That is 400 new deaths and is NOT doubling per day even in CNN math!!!!
We had no deaths yesterday in KY but 2 today . 1 was an 88 year old with congestive heart failure. The other was a 90 year old female with chronhic breathing issues. I feel for the family's pain.
But really 1 million ???
I wasn't talking about Trump but some uninformed RETIRED Dr who was doing the SAME math some on here want to use. THE deaths are not guaranteed to rise at the same rate each day . IF it is why do anything ?

No one is taking social distancing seriously. I've worked at Lowe's for 3 years now in the garden center and Saturday was the busiest day of those 3 years to date.

I never said it was doubling every day....but the # of deaths in the USA is at least doubling every 3-4 days as I said it was......

OUT OF TEST where ? Every where that is reporting they SAY they are going to need more test not that they are out. They just told they are making 50,000 test a day just one the 3-4 hour result one. The 2-3 day lab test are still running wide open

THE mask problem ? Trump questioned it today "where are all the mask going" Good question. They say we have to change every time we see an INFECTED patient. OVER 300 thousand mask have been shipped this week alone. Where are they ? What about the ones that were already on hand? Something doesn't ad up BUT there are 160,000 total cases over the last month. The mask are being made none stop everywhere..


OK some on here my think i'm am just blowing this off. MY ONLY point is were are the numbers. 160,000 cases in the US . 80% won't know they have much more than a cold.128,000 with cold symptoms. 160,000 -128,000 =32,000 people NATION WIDE that will need medical treatment THE EXPERTS say only 20% of the ones needing med treatment will be hospitalized 32,000 -25,600= 6,400 people in the hospital at one time IN THE ENTIRE NATION. these numbers are approximate of course. Also subtract the number of people who have died because they are no longer using a hospital bed.
What is over running the hospitals is the fear of having it. Young healthy people sneeze and act as if the black plague has pecked on their window !!!
Just how sick is a person that can STAND in a line for 4 hours to be tested. REALLY ? I don't think I have it but my back wouldn't let me stand for 4 hours !!!!!
THATS why the test are being used up !!! That's why ER are over run . ARE THERE SICK folks ?darn right!!! but what's all this doomsday logic when the CDC's own numbers don't make sense.....

2,700,000 die every year in the US

I doubt cv19 increases that number by 1

◦Everything we do now (procure ventilators etc) is in preparation for possible apex (when curve hits the highest point)
◦Apex in New York is estimated in 14-21 days from now
◦We'll keep COVID-19 patients separated from the other patients in hospitals
◦We can now test for antibodies to determine whether a person had COVID-19. This is a blood test
◦172 new ICU admission in the last day, vs. 374 in the preceding day, may indicate a decline in the growth rate
◦155,934 people tested in New York State
◦We need a faster testing process. Can't wait 5 days as it is now. Other countries now also have home tests. We should do the same



From gov Cuomo notice the ICU admissions LESS than half from day before

The total for 2020 could easily be 4 million.....not 2.7 million. Too many people not taking this seriously and it is spreading very rapidly.....I wish Kansas would close its borders.....Gov asked anyone coming from Colorado to self quarantine for 2 weeks but that's a joke.....shut the borders down, Trump should shut down travel out of the N/East....

You need to beat this now because if it takes all 2020 to do that we will be in another great depression.....but 'suggested' stay @ home and quarantines will not be enough to get folks to do those things until it really gets bad and then it will be too late.....

How about posting the NEGATIVE covid test!!! Let's get some REAL data to anaylize .

New York ALONE has tested over 165,000 people with 67,000 cases positive.. And people want to wonder why the test are hard to find ..................

I'm sure someone else already pointed this out, but the 1 million dead is the worst case scenario if we don't do anything , well we are doing something; social distancing, shut-downs, etc.. So that 1 million figure is no longer on the table.

Of course that number is still being thrown around by MSNBC and other folks who actually want that to be the death number so that they can blame Trump. Pretty sick people.

Regarding shutting down State borders; I don't think the Federal Government (President) can do that; only Governors.

In the example above about masks and equipment then the writer of that post assumes that no PPE or masks, vents or other equipment is being used on all the other non CV 19 patients? We frequently see the number 2.7 million die each year in the USA and most times it is used to state that CV19 is not a problem, but if the 7400 that die every day in the USA and many do in hospitals then patient loads can become overwhelming quickly. If we have been losing 2-3 million per year then our system has been tailored for those expectations and the warnings of how to deal with rapid and large increases of illness were not headed then the outcome we are experiencing is what we should anticipate it to be. By the time this first critical wave is over we will have stockpiles of all sorts of equipment, much of which was unavailable at the critical need time. We can boast about or productivity but we should not about our planning and preparation. It does not matter how well you take care of the fish in the bowl for 364 days if you let it go dry one day the fish dies.

Bryce

A lot of the same people that are dying from the virus would probably pass from the other severe conditions that prevented them from fighting the virus off. No way to forecast that number.

My wife went to the hospital last night and she does not have Covid, thank you for those who offered prayers/support.

Great news, glad to hear.

As far as people quoting numbers, other than those that test positive and number of deaths, there is yet not enough data to draw any conclusions.

Within the last two days CBS was caught showing video of a hospital in Italy and trying to pass it of as a NYC hospital. But we're supposed to believe everything the news media says? A news media that most thinking people know has been lying to us for years.

Are you sure?





lol

No

LOL

I suppose it depends on how long they track.

USA has a population of 327 million. If 20% get covid (65 million) and if covid has a 2% mortality rate we end up with 1.3 million.

Do you guys understand the significance of the ventilators? As the numbers have proven out, approximately 5% of those who are infected wind up in an ICU and require a ventilator to breathe. You go on one of those when you are no longer able to breathe for yourself. You are on life support and without a ventilator breathing for you, you are dead. It requires not only the machine, but an attendant running it to constantly adjust it to your needs. And even with the ventilators, it seems about 1 in 5 die anyway. But without ventilators, best to assume that all 5 die.

So the only number that matters in any of this gets right down to you at the local level. If you are the one who is among the 5% who needs a ventilator, it had better be there when you need it or you die. If your local hospital has 1 ICU bed with ventilator, and trained staff to run it, your community can support about 20 infected persons. More than that, and somebody gets left out.......meaning somebody dies. To summarize.....ratio is 20 infected per 1 ventilator. With that, 1% death loss....without, death rate may soar to 5% or more.

So far, in the US anyway, no place has run out of ventilators where needed....so death rate is still running around 1%. In places like Italy and Spain, they don't......and death rate is about 10% of those infected. Good news is we recognized that early are are taking steps to remediate. Isolation to reduce demand.....cranking up production to increase supply.

So goals on many fronts are........

a. isolate to reduce the rate of infection to the point your local hospital's ICU beds can absorb the flow......aka, "flatten the curve". In general, we are about 2 weeks into this plan and it seems to be working to reduce the rate of infection. The curve does appear to be flattening.

b. make more ventilators........to increase ICU beds to increase capacity. If ratio is 20:1, so if follows that if 1 bed can support 20, 5 beds can support 100.

c. find drugs to slow or kill virus to lesson severity

d. improve and expand testing.......if infection rates are much higher than we think.......then the 1% death loss to infection rate is way off........say 0.1% instead of 1%, then the big death curve isn't coming.......was never as bad as was forecast. ICU bed ratio is still important but 200:1 being far better than 20:1. I would suspect when the virus is better understood and we reach the point where we can handle what comes, call will go out......."let it come......we can handle it".

e. most important test needed now is for antibodies, revealing folks that have been infected and have gotten better. This test needs to be simple, fast and accurate.....along the lines of a pregnancy test. If some of us have been sick without even knowing it, and are not testing positive, assumption is we can go back to work and normal life. That changes everything. If not, then wave hasn't hit yet and we stay the course.

Excellent explanation Hayday.

The mortality rate from covid is no where near 2%. As more testing is done the rate keeps dropping. Stanford doctors ran some models and are now predicting a mortality rate of .01%. I agree with Trump, one death is to many, but we need to keep this in perspective. If the US and Canada are locked down for an extended period of time we will find ourselves in an recession the likes of which we have never seen. Keep in mind how many Americans died in 2009 from H1N1....almost 15,000. At this point we are no where near those numbers and the malaria drugs are showing real promise. One doctor in New York has treated 699 covid patients with it and had zero deaths and not one had to be intubated.

Is that on top of the 2.7 that will die this year from other causes?

4 million deaths total for 2020.

Could you please give a direction as to where one could find a link to that article about the doctor.

One thing to keep in mind is the fact hat we are all going to get it eventually. Thats how viruses work. Thats how our bodies build immunity to viruses. Unless of course a vaccine is available first. If Covid really is as contagious as it seems, and if the timeline for a vaccine is right, the chances of it working its way through the population before a vaccine is available is quite high. Luckily the vast majority of people have very mild symptoms.

Like I said earlier clean out the "vent" farms !!!
People that don't have a chance of recovery vs someone that does. THEY are making HARD decisions everyday let this one be an easy one !!!!!!

Yea and IF it has a mortality rate of 4% then 2.6 million will die. easy to plug in "if" numbers . That's one of the big problems !!!

May not get it but can build up an immunity. Little dirty kid playing in the mud hardly ever gets sick. Or the homeless for example.

No not everyone is going to get it eventually.It will die down like bird flu and swine flu and spanish flu and the other viruses.Many have never nor will never get the bird flu or swine flu.19 will only be pandemic until herd immunity relegates it to a footnote each year like the others.

I also would be interested in reading that.

Those "if" numbers should be based on established pass rates. This isn't rocket surgery....

I'm not terribly scared of Covid or buying into the media hysteria but it is a real thing. Practice some common sense and follow the guidelines from your state's DHS.