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Depression is coming

Posted By: Finster

Depression is coming - 08/02/20 12:44 AM

I think so. I would like to hear your thoughts. I'm not prepared for it when it happens.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 12:44 AM

I'd like to hear your definition first
Posted By: walleyed

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 12:46 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
I think so. I would like to hear your thoughts. I'm not prepared for it when it happens.



Cheer up Finister.

Don't be depressed.

BOCO will be back, someday !!! laugh

w
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 12:49 AM

Originally Posted by white17
I'd like to hear your definition first

The dollar is about to plunge. I'm thinking it will be wall paper if anyone ever call to collect the debt. This cannot last forever. and they just chucked another 1.3 trillion on the back of the camel today. The global economy is going to collapse. Please tell me I'm wrong. I would be happy to hear it but I don't really see a way out.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 12:51 AM

Probably time for a big war.
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 12:53 AM

Originally Posted by Marty
Probably time for a big war.

CHINA
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 12:57 AM

China is pretty big, 4x our population and probably 6-7x in shape fighting age males.
Posted By: ky_coyote_hunter

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:01 AM

Originally Posted by Marty
China is pretty big, 4x our population and probably 6-7x in shape fighting age males.

Not after we land the first nuke grin
Posted By: Swamp Wolf

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:02 AM

I don't have a whole lot so I dont have a lot to lose.

I'm still buying ammo monthly....
Posted By: Gone Trappin.

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:02 AM

Originally Posted by Marty
China is pretty big, 4x our population and probably 6-7x in shape fighting age males.

Not as good of training, and they have a bad navy and air force
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:03 AM

Originally Posted by ky_coyote_hunter
Originally Posted by Marty
China is pretty big, 4x our population and probably 6-7x in shape fighting age males.

Not after we land the first nuke grin


MAD
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:04 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white17
I'd like to hear your definition first

The dollar is about to plunge. I'm thinking it will be wall paper if anyone ever call to collect the debt. This cannot last forever. and they just chucked another 1.3 trillion on the back of the camel today. The global economy is going to collapse. Please tell me I'm wrong. I would be happy to hear it but I don't really see a way out.


The dollar has been plunging all month. It has before and will again.
I wouldn't be overly concerned about that.

There really isn't much difference between a recession and a depression other than duration.
Posted By: white marlin

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:04 AM

how would you prepare?
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:06 AM

Originally Posted by GoneTrappin.
Originally Posted by Marty
China is pretty big, 4x our population and probably 6-7x in shape fighting age males.

Not as good of training, and they have a bad navy and air force

And all their crap is made in china! grin
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:08 AM

Originally Posted by white marlin
how would you prepare?

Silver first, gold second, booze third and food fourth. As far as being "rich"
Posted By: Duckie1

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:10 AM

Very few know what MAD is anymore.

Since a male can just say they are a female and we are supposed to agree. Couldn't we just say we have no debt?
Posted By: ky_coyote_hunter

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:11 AM

Mutually assured destruction
Posted By: Gone Trappin.

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:12 AM

Originally Posted by Duckie1
Very few know what MAD is anymore.

Since a male can just say they are a female and we are supposed to agree. Couldn't we just say we have no debt?

Mutually Assured Destruction
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:13 AM

Originally Posted by GoneTrappin.
Originally Posted by Duckie1
Very few know what MAD is anymore.

Since a male can just say they are a female and we are supposed to agree. Couldn't we just say we have no debt?

Mutually Assured Destruction

just about anyone over the age of 30 knows what that means.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:13 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white marlin
how would you prepare?

Silver first, gold second, booze third and food fourth. As far as being "rich"



What are you going to buy with that AG, AU and BZ ??
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:13 AM

Wolverines!!!!!!!

grin
Posted By: Gone Trappin.

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:13 AM

My thoughts on a big war would be that no nukes will drop as people would be too afraid to ruin EVERYTHING or all the nukes with drop and there will be nothing left.
Posted By: ky_coyote_hunter

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:15 AM

Originally Posted by Marty
Wolverines!!!!!!!

grin

Obtain forms, 4473
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:15 AM

Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by Finster

Silver first, gold second, booze third and food fourth. As far as being "rich"



What are you going to buy with that AG, AU and BZ ??

Hookers! grin
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:16 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white marlin
how would you prepare?

Silver first, gold second, booze third and food fourth. As far as being "rich"


Ammo, food, water, booze. Forget gold and silver.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:16 AM

laugh

Man !! Talk about supply & demand !!
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:19 AM

Originally Posted by white17
laugh

Man !! Talk about supply & demand !!

Seriously, just like the great depression, you would trade for food, or trade for gas, labor, supplies or whatever you need. The dollar is going down and when it happens, it will be brutal.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:21 AM

I'd rather have the gas, food, wire, rope and tools than AG, Au at any time during a depression/recessiom
Posted By: Swamp Wolf

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:22 AM

Those of you holding stocks and bonds may want to re-evaluate.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:23 AM

Originally Posted by Swamp Wolf
Those of you holding stocks and bonds may want to re-evaluate.



I don't think so. A falling dollar pushes stocks up
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:26 AM

Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by Swamp Wolf
Those of you holding stocks and bonds may want to re-evaluate.



I don't think so. A falling dollar pushes stocks up

I concede that you are much more in tune with economics than I am. I can tell by your post's over the years. That being said, it depends on what stocks. Any banking stocks will crash. IMO. Tech stocks will be decimated IMO. Stocks in energy will be the way to go.
Posted By: Gone Trappin.

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:27 AM

Hey if there is a depression and/or war fur prices will shoot up
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:29 AM

The dollar collapses as in 'worthless' then the whole world economy will be in shambles......who knows where that will stop?

Not I.
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:29 AM

Originally Posted by GoneTrappin.
Hey if there is a depression and/or war fur prices will shoot up

In all seriousness, yes, I will be reborn.
Posted By: Swamp Wolf

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:31 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white17
[quote=Swamp Wolf]


I don't think so. A falling dollar pushes stocks up

I concede that you are much more in tune with economics than I am. I can tell by your post's over the years. That being said, it depends on what stocks. Any banking stocks will crash. IMO. Tech stocks will be decimated IMO. Stocks in energy will be the way to go.

You are correct. Dont own any. But seems like I remember reading about folks committing suicide because of stock market crash in the 30s. Please educate me....
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:34 AM

The market crashed not the dollar....
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:35 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white17

I don't think so. A falling dollar pushes stocks up

I concede that you are much more in tune with economics than I am. I can tell by your post's over the years. That being said, it depends on what stocks. Any banking stocks will crash. IMO. Tech stocks will be decimated IMO. Stocks in energy will be the way to go.



Well.....we agree that bank stocks may take it on the chin but I believe tech stocks will do better than most in that environment. Tech is a worldwide market and thus will benefit in some areas and suffer in others due to differences in exchange rates.
Energy ?????? No way. In a depression there will be even LESS demand for energy than there is currently. It may benefit a little bit because natural resources do go up when the dollar weakens but lack of demand will overwhelm any gain from inflation
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:37 AM

Quite a few offed themselves. because of the crash. A different era though. Not going to happen these days. people don't have the guts or integrity. Most of the guys that offed themselves didn't lose their money, they lost their clients money. No one today would give a crap. .
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:41 AM

Originally Posted by white17



Well.....we agree that bank stocks may take it on the chin but I believe tech stocks will do better than most in that environment. Tech is a worldwide market and thus will benefit in some areas and suffer in others due to differences in exchange rates.
Energy ?????? No way. In a depression there will be even LESS demand for energy than there is currently. It may benefit a little bit because natural resources do go up when the dollar weakens but lack of demand will overwhelm any gain from inflation

Naaahhhh. White I respectively disagree. Energy will be the only stable in such an economy. Everyone needs it and it will be a stable investment but not only that, it will flourish since it is so stable. Just my opinion. .
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:42 AM

Huge difference in margin requirements between now and 1929.

That said...........there was a young kid just last week who killed himself because he believed ERRONEOUSLY that he owed several hundred thousand dollars in margin losses on Robinhood.com
Posted By: Swamp Wolf

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:42 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Quite a few offed themselves. because of the crash. A different era though. Not going to happen these days. people don't have the guts or integrity. Most of the guys that offed themselves didn't lose their money, they lost their clients money. No one today would give a crap. .

Probably right about that^^
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:46 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white17



Well.....we agree that bank stocks may take it on the chin but I believe tech stocks will do better than most in that environment. Tech is a worldwide market and thus will benefit in some areas and suffer in others due to differences in exchange rates.
Energy ?????? No way. In a depression there will be even LESS demand for energy than there is currently. It may benefit a little bit because natural resources do go up when the dollar weakens but lack of demand will overwhelm any gain from inflation

Naaahhhh. White I respectively disagree. Energy will be the only stable in such an economy. Everyone needs it and it will be a stable investment but not only that, it will flourish since it is so stable. Just my opinion. .



We have already seen a huge decline in energy demand just due to the decrease on economic activity so far. It will only compound with time and less activity.
Tech , on the other hand, will be stable or increase because more people and governments will utilize it to keep things running during this pandemic. Also, tech companies are "asset light". Meaning they don't need to invest in large plant and equipment. Their products are intellectual. Not physical. Their overhead is much less than say Caterpillar who must buy steel and engines at the same time their sales are dropping


EDIT: if you mean investments in electrical utilities...........that's a different story. Yes that should remain fairly stable......unless Democrats are elected and decide to nationalize or reduce the value of regulated monopolies
Posted By: Bear Tracker

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:51 AM

Many committed suicide due to depression. They lost all physical possessions and lost HOPE and belief. Depression will happen if we continue to lock down healthy people and shut down businesses. Quarantine the healthy is not the solution. The only solution to our current situation financial and health is herd immunity. Roughly 5 million world wide will die, masks are hindering mother natures balancing methods. She is fickle!
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:55 AM

I think "herd immunity" is pie in the sky with this virus.

Not to change the subject
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 01:58 AM

Originally Posted by white17


We have already seen a huge decline in energy demand just due to the decrease on economic activity so far. It will only compound with time and less activity.
Tech , on the other hand, will be stable or increase because more people and governments will utilize it to keep things running during this pandemic. Also, tech companies are "asset light". Meaning they don't need to invest in large plant and equipment. Their products are intellectual. Not physical. Their overhead is much less than say Caterpillar who must buy steel and engines at the same time their sales are dropping


EDIT: if you mean investments in electrical utilities...........that's a different story. Yes that should remain fairly stable......unless Democrats are elected and decide to nationalize or reduce the value of regulated monopolies

Well yes. Since I am in the field of "electrical energy" That's what I was talking about. However, all energy will come to the front. If you are talking stocks and investing, any form of energy will be the way to go. Think about it for a second. everything else will need it to get back on track.
Posted By: white marlin

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:00 AM

fin,

don't listen to me, I'm clueless...

but seems to me that if economic activity slows considerably, energy demands will decrease proportionally.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:03 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white17


We have already seen a huge decline in energy demand just due to the decrease on economic activity so far. It will only compound with time and less activity.
Tech , on the other hand, will be stable or increase because more people and governments will utilize it to keep things running during this pandemic. Also, tech companies are "asset light". Meaning they don't need to invest in large plant and equipment. Their products are intellectual. Not physical. Their overhead is much less than say Caterpillar who must buy steel and engines at the same time their sales are dropping


EDIT: if you mean investments in electrical utilities...........that's a different story. Yes that should remain fairly stable......unless Democrats are elected and decide to nationalize or reduce the value of regulated monopolies

Well yes. Since I am in the field of "electrical energy" That's what I was talking about. However, all energy will come to the front. If you are talking stocks and investing, any form of energy will be the way to go. Think about it for a second. everything else will need it to get back on track.



I disagree......................and that is what makes markets work ))))))
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:03 AM

Originally Posted by white marlin
fin,

don't listen to me, I'm clueless...

but seems to me that if economic activity slows considerably, energy demands will decrease proportionally.

Yes, I agree but to get back, everyone and evry factory will need what? Energy ! You're not going to do it without it. Now as far as investing goes, you need to figure out a company that won't fold. That might be tricky.
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:05 AM

Originally Posted by white17



I disagree......................and that is what makes markets work ))))))


Fair enough but let me ask you this question. Who will keep the lights on and the motors running in your theory?
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:10 AM

Huge difference between companies that generate electricity and those that explore and produce.
IF I had to make a choice of investments in the energy sector.......I would buy SO, DUK and short CVX and XOM

But I don't have to make that choice )))))))))
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:11 AM

Originally Posted by Bear Tracker
Many committed suicide due to depression. They lost all physical possessions and lost HOPE and belief. Depression will happen if we continue to lock down healthy people and shut down businesses. Quarantine the healthy is not the solution. The only solution to our current situation financial and health is herd immunity. Roughly 5 million world wide will die, masks are hindering mother natures balancing methods. She is fickle!


"We" are letting "them" lock us down. When will "we" stand up to the corruption. We won't. To many people are complying. Look at all the mask wearers for instance.
Posted By: SpottedOwl

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:12 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white17

Well.....we agree that bank stocks may take it on the chin but I believe tech stocks will do better than most in that environment. Tech is a worldwide market and thus will benefit in some areas and suffer in others due to differences in exchange rates.
Energy ?????? No way. In a depression there will be even LESS demand for energy than there is currently. It may benefit a little bit because natural resources do go up when the dollar weakens but lack of demand will overwhelm any gain from inflation

Naaahhhh. White I respectively disagree. Energy will be the only stable in such an economy. Everyone needs it and it will be a stable investment but not only that, it will flourish since it is so stable. Just my opinion. .


Look into energy closely. Lots of people are not paying the bill right now. Many utilities can do nothing about it other than write it off. I work at a utility it’s creating a complete crap storm right now. Our stock has gone down after the write-offs came open, 32 million in this "hiccup" we’re experiencing right now. A full on depression, after watching currently and ‘08, would be a killer. Our demand is in the tank and people are still not paying up monthly. Government can and will dictate regulations on energy, such as, continue supply even if payments can’t or aren’t being made, kinda like eviction moratoriums. I think utilities are "stable" just not as stable as a lot of people think, just stable compared to the rest of the market like always. There will be no flourishing.



Owl
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:13 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white17



I disagree......................and that is what makes markets work ))))))


Fair enough but let me ask you this question. Who will keep the lights on and the motors running in your theory?


Who's going to use it when people can't pay the bills for it?
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:15 AM

Good point S&R !!

Directive 10-289 !! Atlas Shrugged Thus my comment about Democrats nationalizing industries
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:16 AM

Originally Posted by white17
Huge difference between companies that generate electricity and those that explore and produce.
IF I had to make a choice of investments in the energy sector.......I would buy SO, DUK and short CVX and XOM

But I don't have to make that choice )))))))))

I think we have gotten off track here a bit. I'm talking about a depression where most companies will fail. The 2nd great depression. If that would happen and you actually had some finances left to invest, what sector would you invest in. I'm not talking companies here because they probably won't exist. Beyond that. the thread was meant to be more about how you are prepared for the short term. I guess I didn't really clarify that. My bad.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:19 AM

If everything failed ????????? I think...................I would look at investing in water.
Posted By: Rat Masterson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:20 AM

I f the dollar collapses, who gets paid to keep the lights on and with what. People had a meltdown with toilet paper shortages, what happens when there is no food for a week in the big city, or do all these companies have stock piles of silver and gold to pay their employees.
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:35 AM

Originally Posted by Rat Masterson
I f the dollar collapses, who gets paid to keep the lights on and with what. People had a meltdown with toilet paper shortages, what happens when there is no food for a week in the big city, or do all these companies have stock piles of silver and gold to pay their employees.

Silver and gold is a hedge to preserve wealth, not pay people. Buy your propane tanks and lanterns while you can. Lol.
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:35 AM

Originally Posted by white17
If everything failed ????????? I think...................I would look at investing in water.


Or have more bullets than your neighbor. Lol
Posted By: SpottedOwl

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:37 AM

Complete failure. Sanitation in all aspects and military contracts.

Short term. Compact family unit community, beans, bullets, band-aids, booze, emergency cash/coins. Emergency money set aside for the house payment, I know they won’t turn off the lights(part of that nationalization thing White mentioned and deregulation), all other bills can take a hike.

In ‘09 we had a "snow storm". In 2-3 days the town was out of, dairy, meat and fresh fruit, not just stores but restaurants also, bundled firewood was gone, gasoline was gone. It was scary to watch people. The supply line could not get in with the hwys and surface roads closed and people could not get out. We don’t handle snow or ice well in these parts, it’s embarrassing.

The lights will stay on or get turned back on after fixing, the line crews will still be working and getting paid. Utilities have exceptionally deep pockets when it comes to paying “essential" workers, the office might not get paid but the guys on the trucks will. I guarantee though, if we don’t get paid, hopefully you have wood back up for heat cause we’ll all be gone.



Owl
Posted By: Gone Trappin.

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 02:48 AM

Glad I can hunt and won’t starve. My survival skills are ok, I won’t be living comfortably at all or even close to that but I could survive
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 03:01 AM

Originally Posted by GoneTrappin.
Glad I can hunt and won’t starve. My survival skills are ok, I won’t be living comfortably at all or even close to that but I could survive


You'll need more than meat. Without vegetable and only meat, you'll die.
Posted By: maintenanceguy

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 03:09 AM

Every recession, even the great depression, ended with stock prices recovering. If you are worried about how you'll survive during a depression, I don't know other than I can hunt, fish, garden, and fix whatever needs fixing. If you're asking where to put your money so it doesn't go away during a depression, put it in the stock market. Your value will go down and it will come back up. I personally like index funds.
Posted By: Dirty D

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 03:25 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by white marlin
how would you prepare?

Silver first, gold second, booze third and food fourth. As far as being "rich"


wrong, Food is first. Gold isn't edible, it'll be traded for food.
2nd is guns and ammo to protect Food.
3rd is gold and silver
4th is booze.

Gold, Silver, Booze and tobacco are mainly trade items. They have little value to someone who has lots of food, isn't a alcoholic and doesn't smoke.

Everyone has to eat to survive.
Posted By: charles

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 04:00 AM

Foreign money is still flowing our way to buy our Treasury Bonds. US currency still safer than most and our yield is better than Europe. I suppose we will borrow our way to prosperity.
Posted By: gcs

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 08:49 PM

You can hunt all you want, with all the other folks hunting too, most game will disappear pretty quick, at least in more "settled" areas.
Canned food would be important, until someone figures out you got it, talk about defending it with your bullets is funny, If I want your stuff, I'm not walking up to the door to demand it, I'll just wait and kill you when you least expect it.
If things go horribly wrong, the survivors will be the ones forting up with neighbors and maybe able to fight off the gangs and warlords.

"All plans go to heck with first contact with the enemy"
Posted By: trapper les

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 09:41 PM

Originally Posted by Finster
I think so. I would like to hear your thoughts. I'm not prepared for it when it happens.

I've been working and making a bit of money here and there. I sure hope it doesnt somehow devaluate.
Posted By: Gary Benson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 09:51 PM

food, water, shelter
Posted By: timbremn

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 10:30 PM

Originally Posted by Gary Benson
food, water, shelter

Beer
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 10:37 PM

A person cannot live more than a f ew days without water, clean & safe water would be #1
Posted By: JD Hornet

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 10:42 PM

IF what happens happens and a lot of people start hunting for their food because of the economy you will be surprised. I have, lets say several years in western Alaska and about a decade or so in middle Alaska and several more years in South East Alaska. Out west there are a lot of villages and there are no moose for a lot of miles around these villages and it is because the natives can kill a moose any time of the year if it is for a native use (pot luck). The deer and other animals will be a scarce as in the teens and twenty. Just my 2 cents.
Posted By: J Staton

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 10:54 PM

Originally Posted by JD Hornet
IF what happens happens and a lot of people start hunting for their food because of the economy you will be surprised. I have, lets say several years in western Alaska and about a decade or so in middle Alaska and several more years in South East Alaska. Out west there are a lot of villages and there are no moose for a lot of miles around these villages and it is because the natives can kill a moose any time of the year if it is for a native use (pot luck). The deer and other animals will be a scarce as in the teens and twenty. Just my 2 cents.

There's always Fido or Felix.
Posted By: Bob_Iowa

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 11:01 PM

One bright spot right now is with the dollar down, china and other countries are buying U.S. ag commodities because of several factors and that is at least stabilizing the markets, even if it low, unlike what happened in the late 20’s and 30’s, we had massive over production and no where to go with it, so at least the ag sector won’t crash right away and will help maintain the rest of the economy. What does scare me is with the stock down we really haven’t seen the funds come into the grain market and drive it up and down, to me that means they are gun shy to be moving money into the grains which usually doesn’t bode well for the farmer.
Posted By: Gary Benson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 11:01 PM

Originally Posted by timbremn
Originally Posted by Gary Benson
food, water, shelter

Beer

oops, my bad laugh
Posted By: danny clifton

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 11:04 PM

cattle all over my part of the world. i am confident i would be able to trade labor for a steer. fire wood may get to be a problem. quite a few old coal mines around here so thats an option
Posted By: Gary Benson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 11:07 PM

Originally Posted by Bob_Iowa
One bright spot right now is with the dollar down, china and other countries are buying U.S. ag commodities because of several factors and that is at least stabilizing the markets, even if it low, unlike what happened in the late 20’s and 30’s, we had massive over production and no where to go with it, so at least the ag sector won’t crash right away and will help maintain the rest of the economy. What does scare me is with the stock down we really haven’t seen the funds come into the grain market and drive it up and down, to me that means they are gun shy to be moving money into the grains which usually doesn’t bode well for the farmer.

They just ain't hungry yet. Folks in this country haven't seen bad since the 1940s.
My concern is that one day taxes on farm ground will get to the point that farmers can't afford the taxes anymore. Every time they need more money, the ag land is the first thing they go after, and frankly, I don't see how a farmer can come out ahead today with the price of land, equipment, seed, chemical. Yes, there is some subsidy but it isn't making anybody rich.
Posted By: JD Hornet

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 11:11 PM

Danny you got a good deal with trading cows for labor, just remember you got to guard them cows. Several years ago when the price for cattle went up we had a big problem with rustling.
Posted By: Bob_Iowa

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 11:13 PM

It’s tough.
Posted By: Duckie1

Re: Depression is coming - 08/02/20 11:52 PM

Easier to guard them when canned.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:04 AM

Originally Posted by trapper les
Originally Posted by Finster
I think so. I would like to hear your thoughts. I'm not prepared for it when it happens.

I've been working and making a bit of money here and there. I sure hope it doesnt somehow devaluate.



Somehow?

The FED has added around 3 trillion to their balance sheet in the last year, that is money created out of thin air. The US has added that much or more to it's debt and they are going to pass another stimulus plan in the next few days that will add another 2 trillion to the deficit. Your dollar is being devalued every day.
Posted By: Scout1

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:13 AM

Originally Posted by Finster
I think so. I would like to hear your thoughts. I'm not prepared for it when it happens.

No offense, but Bull CaCa!
Posted By: Co�s

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:13 AM

We’ll all be fine. Maybe a little poorer, but fine.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:16 AM

Originally Posted by Coös
We’ll all be fine. Maybe a little poorer, but fine.



Maybe, maybe not.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:20 AM

The most spoiled country in world history that is filled with the most self centered/entitled people in world history and less than 10% of those people are self sufficient enough to survive any grid down scenario or have any common sense.

What could go wrong?
Posted By: Co�s

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:24 AM

I meant we, as in Tman folks. Times might get tough but we can all survive our standard of living dropping a few notches. As Marty points out, most of this country is out of touch with the concept of frugality and making the ends meet up with what you already have.
Posted By: Gary Benson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:27 AM

Black beans matter.
I was in Wyoming for a family reunion and the electricity went out for 6 hrs. You would think the world was going to end.
Posted By: Dirt

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:30 AM

Originally Posted by Marty
The most spoiled country in world history that is filled with the most self centered/entitled people in world history and less than 10% of those people are self sufficient enough to survive any grid down scenario or have any common sense.

What could go wrong?


Nothing will go wrong here. Good to be in the 10% minority.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:40 AM

smile
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 02:18 AM

Dirt, I'm coming to live with ya.

In my opinion we are flirting with a currency collapse. If that happens it will make the Great Depression look like a full on bull market. The difference between now and then is we are awash in debt.
Posted By: danny clifton

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:25 PM

Quote
Danny you got a good deal with trading cows for labor, just remember you got to guard them cows. Several years ago when the price for cattle went up we had a big problem with rustling.


Guard is exactly what i was thinking of trading. I hope it doesn't come to that. Somebody starved into leaving the city could be here quick if they have gas. If they have to walk it would take a few days. Especially if they are already hungry. One thing to keep in mind is that gangs who distribute drugs are already organized and armed. They have no qualms about killing people to take whatever they want.The first skirmishes would almost certainly occur in urban areas. The survivors would be the ones who finally leave. Those survivors will be tough and smart.


I don't think any of that is very likely but it is possible. I doubt I ever get stranded for more than a day or two tops while trapping some remote place but I have enough MRE's and water in my pickup to last a week before I ever leave to check traps of a morning. Have several fire starters and tools too.
Posted By: LLtrapper

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 12:46 PM

I told you all to plant a garden, put it up, can a bunch of fish ,beef, pork and poultry. Raise a few rabbits and meat birds. Also buy as much ammo as you can afford. These few things will be worth more than all the gold and silver you can carry. I will even go further and bring this into the conversation...

Mathew 24
6You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. 7 Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. 8 All these are the beginning of birth pains.

9 “Then you will be handed over to be persecuted and put to death, and you will be hated by all nations because of me. 10 At that time many will turn away from the faith and will betray and hate each other, 11 and many false prophets will appear and deceive many people. 12 Because of the increase of wickedness, the love of most will grow cold, 13 but the one who stands firm to the end will be saved. 14 And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in the whole world as a testimony to all nations, and then the end will come.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 08:46 PM

Originally Posted by LLtrapper
I told you all to plant a garden, put it up, can a bunch of fish ,beef, pork and poultry. Raise a few rabbits and meat birds. Also buy as much ammo as you can afford. These few things will be worth more than all the gold and silver you can carry.


.


Wanna bet?

While you advice is good and has great merit, Gold and silver have been a store of wealth and a means of exchange as far back as any history book goes. I could carry a quarter million worth of gold in today's prices in my back pack and not even know it's there.
Posted By: LLtrapper

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 09:35 PM

Originally Posted by Steven 49er
Originally Posted by LLtrapper
I told you all to plant a garden, put it up, can a bunch of fish ,beef, pork and poultry. Raise a few rabbits and meat birds. Also buy as much ammo as you can afford. These few things will be worth more than all the gold and silver you can carry.


.


Wanna bet?

While you advice is good and has great merit, Gold and silver have been a store of wealth and a means of exchange as far back as any history book goes. I could carry a quarter million worth of gold in today's prices in my back pack and not even know it's there.


I watched a movie like that once. These guys robbed a bank and split the gold bars up. They rode thru the dessert to escape the law. One was very greedy and the other was very wise. The greedy one was fine with selling the wise one his water for the heavy gold. Soon the greedy guy needed to water his horse but had sold the wise man his water. Soon the greedy guy was carrying his gold across the desert while the other man rode next to him with plenty of w for his self and horse. In the movie the man ends up dying from the elements right before they made it to a safe border town. The wise man then took the fool's gold and rode into town with all of it.

Moral of the story is that you cannot eat or drink gold and it taxes your resources to defend it from someone who will take it when you are at your low. LLL
Posted By: upstateNY

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 10:10 PM

Originally Posted by Steven 49er
Originally Posted by LLtrapper
I told you all to plant a garden, put it up, can a bunch of fish ,beef, pork and poultry. Raise a few rabbits and meat birds. Also buy as much ammo as you can afford. These few things will be worth more than all the gold and silver you can carry.


.


Wanna bet?

While you advice is good and has great merit, Gold and silver have been a store of wealth and a means of exchange as far back as any history book goes. I could carry a quarter million worth of gold in today's prices in my back pack and not even know it's there.

What exactly,,would you be trading that gold and silver for in a time of extreme crises,,,A Baby Grand Piano,,,OR,,food and ammo?? HHMMMMMMMMMM
Posted By: WhiteTrash 88

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 10:15 PM

A new wife?
Posted By: Gary Benson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/03/20 10:26 PM

Originally Posted by WhiteTrash 88
A new wife?

Good trade..........not for you though. laugh
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 12:08 AM

Originally Posted by Steven 49er
Originally Posted by LLtrapper
I told you all to plant a garden, put it up, can a bunch of fish ,beef, pork and poultry. Raise a few rabbits and meat birds. Also buy as much ammo as you can afford. These few things will be worth more than all the gold and silver you can carry.


.


Wanna bet?

While you advice is good and has great merit, Gold and silver have been a store of wealth and a means of exchange as far back as any history book goes. I could carry a quarter million worth of gold in today's prices in my back pack and not even know it's there.


Neither replaced a currency.
Posted By: SpottedOwl

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 12:15 AM

Originally Posted by WhiteTrash 88
A new wife?


Good Lord man. Don’t you know them things is nothin but trouble.


Currency will be crap in any form or will make you a target, if even having/using precious metal currency is even legal. Horse trading barter will be the new purchasing system. If you have something useful or that I may need we trade, not sell, trade. Somewhere it’s written all the gold and silver will be thrown into the streets, it won’t fill your soul or you bowels, also, that it will take a days wages for a measure of wheat. I do think a little here and there is a good thing, but some are placing let it ride bets on this path, I think they will be horribly surprised in the end.

I’m with most though, it will be bad, but not that bad. Store up 1 - 5 years in your pantry, some house payments set aside, then diversify thinking outside the box. Forget movies and Hollywood, what lessons did the depression era folks and the pig farmer poor folks(I’m a pig farmer so ease up) tell us about how things worked, go that direction and everyone will be fine.



Owl
Posted By: Dirt

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 12:26 AM

FUR-PRICING COMPARISONS FROM 1930 – 1960’s



Prices During the 1930’s Prices During the 1960’s



Mink Up to $50 ......... $25

Muskrats $2 ......... $.50 to $1

Skunks $2 to $3.50 ......... $.50 to $1

Raccoon $6 to $10 ........... $6

Beaver Up to $75 ........... $15 to $25

Fox $5 to $10 ......... $60 and up

Not all things are bad during a depression. smile

Fox were bringing $60 and up in the 1960's? confused Must be a misprint?
Posted By: Chancey

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 04:24 PM

I am ignorant in the stock market and world markets, but am trying to learn and enjoy reading posts like this to see everyone's thoughts and try to educate myself.

White 17, Steven 49er, and Dirt I respect ya'lls opinions on this topic and others....What do ya'll think about this article regarding Russia and the Dollar? I thought it was interesting, but was wondering if ya'll thought there is anything to it? Thanks in advance. Chancey

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/478865-imf-great-depression-russia/
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 04:49 PM

Russia has positioned herself pretty well for what is coming down the pike.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 05:29 PM

Originally Posted by Chancey
I am ignorant in the stock market and world markets, but am trying to learn and enjoy reading posts like this to see everyone's thoughts and try to educate myself.

White 17, Steven 49er, and Dirt I respect ya'lls opinions on this topic and others....What do ya'll think about this article regarding Russia and the Dollar? I thought it was interesting, but was wondering if ya'll thought there is anything to it? Thanks in advance. Chancey

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/478865-imf-great-depression-russia/



Just a couple of quick observations:

Note that the article claims that Russia is well positioned in terms of gold and "CASH". Pay attention to the fact that they do not specify what that cash is. It is NOT Rubles..it is dollars. If dollars are going to be worthless, why is Russia holding them as reserves ?


Russia's debt to gdp ratio is much lower than that of the US. That's a good thing....on the surface. The question should be WHY is that true ? The answer is because Russia defaulted on all her debt in 1998 and wiped it out.

RT.com is a state owned, state controlled, propaganda organ of Putin. It ranks right up there with the Russian defense ministry as a strategic asset.
I suspect it is more effective in duping Russian citizens than those in the West.


Russia's economy is just slightly larger than that of California .....and doesn't even rank in the top ten in the world.

We certainly have our own problems here but I would choose to be here rather than Russia when/if things go south.

I would view everything from that source with a critical eye.............just like I would with the New York Times ! laugh
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 05:52 PM

By here you mean Alaska or me in northern MN, if things go south, the highly populated areas will get ugly.

The reason Russia holds reserves in dollars is because it's the reserve currency of the world, if it wants to trade with it's partners that's what it has to use. A large part of the reason Russia's economy is small is it didn't base it on debt. California is going to get steam rolled when the dollar crashes, russia not so much.

I agree, RT is a dubious source.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 05:53 PM

Ken, did you look at metals today?

Gold over 2000., silver will break 26 and hold today. It's a good day to own miner's stock. When to exit is the question.
Posted By: Diggerman

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 05:57 PM

If you all really believe that the dollar is depreciating and massive inflation is happening, why are you not borrowing money to buy land and such? Should be a no-brainer right?
Posted By: Hydropillar

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 06:01 PM

White 17, Steven 49er, and Dirt I respect ya'lls opinions on this topic and others.
x2

will they eventually raise interest to try and combat inflation??
im not sure how to position myself .... but im afraid were in for ruff times..
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 06:11 PM

Don't look to me for advice, I'm a perma-bull when it comes to metals. My vision is contrarian to the status quo. I live and invest like things will continue as is but take some precautions. I try to minimize my debt and my ratio of what I would call sound investments is a bit higher that most recommend. Many say a good idea of Precious Metal related investments in 5 percent. of your worth. I think given the current situation it should be higher.
'
If we see rampant inflation they will have to raise interest rates. The question in my mind is how can they with the amount of debt in the world. Governments will have to default.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 06:11 PM

Originally Posted by Hydropillar
White 17, Steven 49er, and Dirt I respect ya'lls opinions on this topic and others.
x2

will they eventually raise interest to try and combat inflation??
im not sure how to position myself .... but im afraid were in for ruff times..



The Fed is in the process of formalizing a change in how they approach this subject ( because obviously they have to try something).

As you no doubt recall, the standard practice has been to raise rates when inflation is approaching their target level.
They now intend to allow inflation to "overshoot" ( their word) the target in order to "make up for" (their words) the months that it has fallen short of the target.

This may also prevent a market sell-off and the Fed having to backpedal as happened 6 months or so back.
Posted By: Dirt

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 06:15 PM

Originally Posted by Diggerman
If you all really believe that the dollar is depreciating and massive inflation is happening, why are you not borrowing money to buy land and such? Should be a no-brainer right?


I don't need any more land. Never been in debt. I bet it sucks. smile
Posted By: Diggerman

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by Dirt
Originally Posted by Diggerman
If you all really believe that the dollar is depreciating and massive inflation is happening, why are you not borrowing money to buy land and such? Should be a no-brainer right?


I don't need any more land. Never been in debt. I bet it sucks. smile

The question was , if you were to position your self positively for a weekening dollar and high inflation, with low interest rates, wouldn't borrowing money to buy land be a no-brainer?
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 07:01 PM

Originally Posted by Diggerman
Originally Posted by Dirt

I don't need any more land. Never been in debt. I bet it sucks. smile

The question was , if you were to position your self positively for a weekening dollar and high inflation, with low interest rates, wouldn't borrowing money to buy land be a no-brainer?



I think before one could answer that question, you would need to have a concrete idea of the outcome at some point in the near future.

I would NOT buy land just to buy land. You can't eat it. It is horribly illiquid. You wouldn't trade an acre of land for a cup of sugar or a dozen eggs. You couldn't sell it in a timely fashion if you needed to.

If high inflation is what you envision, then common stocks and even some metals, is the way to prepare for it IMO. Along with tools and staple items. And as little cash as you can possibly hold
Posted By: Dirt

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 07:04 PM

IMO it is not a no-brainer. Land here comes with property taxes. That is an expense.
Posted By: Chancey

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 07:14 PM

Thank you for the responses Gentlemen. Something has got to give with all this printing of money and no body working. I'm just not sure what to expect.

This guy thinks Deflation is coming. Video below is kind of corny, but I think he makes some good points on our current situation. What do ya'll think?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbaXyiCITw0

So if this guy is correct and we are soon to experience deflation rather than inflation......then how are we to best prepare ourselves and our families for it?
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 07:38 PM

I agree it's corny and there are some obvious errors, but in general I agree that deflation is far more serious than inflation.

It is currently happening in places like Brazil and South Africa where commodity prices are collapsing at the same time the virus is on the rampage.
Posted By: Rat Masterson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 08:08 PM

If the dollar collapses the country will implode, no one will be working because they can't get paid, everything will grind to halt. Let's be honest if the dollar becomes worthless having some gold or silver is not going to save you. Bartering will be the currency of the day so you better have something to trade that you can eat or wear or drink.
Posted By: Gary Benson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 08:09 PM

I'm not very smart but I don't like borrowing money for anything. Interest sucks, and if you can't pay taxes on land or structures, you lose it. At some point, I see valuation and tax on farmland being so high that nobody can afford to own it..except the Government.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 08:24 PM

One more thing to ask yourself.

Lets say you are a citizen of a foreign country and that you posses a reasonable amount of capital. Not rich but not destitute either.

Where will you invest your money ? Would you choose to invest in China, India, The EU or the US ?

That is exactly what is happening in underdeveloped nations right now. People with capital are getting it out of their local economies...where restrictions have not yet been imposed..like China........and they are investing it in US assets. Even US Treasuries pay better than what is available at home in many instances are are much safer politically.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 09:24 PM

Originally Posted by Rat Masterson
If the dollar collapses the country will implode, no one will be working because they can't get paid, everything will grind to halt. Let's be honest if the dollar becomes worthless having some gold or silver is not going to save you. Bartering will be the currency of the day so you better have something to trade that you can eat or wear or drink.


Dave, there has to be a medium of exchange. Bartering may be the means in the first stages but eventually there has to be a medium. Gold has had value since before Christ walked the earth, societies have risen and fell many times since and yet gold is still a valid medium of exchange.
Posted By: Diggerman

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 09:33 PM

Originally Posted by Gary Benson
I'm not very smart but I don't like borrowing money for anything. Interest sucks, and if you can't pay taxes on land or structures, you lose it. At some point, I see valuation and tax on farmland being so high that nobody can afford to own it..except the Government.

I am not an advocate of borrowing money, I do and have done so more lately because of the low interest rates. I would not hesitate to borrow money for land if I found some at a deal. If you believe that we are in for a period of high inflation, then taking out a long term low interest loan and purchasing something "real", with out to much holding costs would be prudent. Without holding something that will appreciate along with inflation you will be losing ground.
Also, that cash you have in the freezer, well, what happens if the govt starts printing yellow money and gives you 30 days to convert your green money over, WITH a limit of say 5G's?
Posted By: cfowler

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 09:56 PM

I agree with basic necessities first; Food, Water, Security. Barter and trade will replace fiat currency for most. Gold and silver will have their place, but a set of skills might prove to be more valuable. One thing is for sure, if the US dollar collapses, I’d want to be holding some gold and silver instead of dollars.
Posted By: Rat Masterson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 10:22 PM

I get that Steven, the trick is going to be to survive long enough for the country to stabilize. I doubt I'll live to see it but I fear what we are leaving our descendants is a tragedy.
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/04/20 10:29 PM

It's not here yet. Hang in there.
Posted By: Kansas Cat

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:00 AM

LOL. The sky is not falling. When a vaccine is announced, and it will be sooner rather than later, you will be very sorry if you are not heavily invested in common stocks that are near their 52 week low. The amount of money that will pour into these "value" stocks and industrials will be mind boggling. You saw a little preview of this when we first reopened, but virus cases surged and the trade got squashed. You will want to pick stocks that are viable long term. Some companies are on the way out and will not rebound like others.
Posted By: .204

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:23 AM

Well I am stoked about the price of silver. Gonna sell tommorrow. If done right I will be able to have house paid off in 6 months.
Posted By: Kansas Cat

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:29 AM

Just curious J, if you are selling silver tomorrow, what are you investing in the interim that will allow you to pay off your house in six months?
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:39 AM

Originally Posted by jwill
Well I am stoked about the price of silver. Gonna sell tommorrow. If done right I will be able to have house paid off in 6 months.


Be sure you save out enough to pay your taxes
Posted By: bbasher

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:40 AM

Wouldn’t it make sense to plan on a rebound in the economy vs end of days scenario? Could be some money to be made. If $hit really hits the fan I doubt even the best preppers will have the same quality of life? That being said, I think the serious trappers on this forum would do well when times get tough. The guys that are posting 88 times a day are screwed
Posted By: .204

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:43 AM

I shall White.
We have been paying a lot on principle and silver shot up at an opportune time. It would have been a couple more years but will be nice to have it paid.
Posted By: Marty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:44 AM

Being physically fit is your #1 prep, a way to provide yourself with clean drinking water is #2.
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:46 AM

Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by jwill
Well I am stoked about the price of silver. Gonna sell tommorrow. If done right I will be able to have house paid off in 6 months.


Be sure you save out enough to pay your taxes


How do they know how much profit he makes?
Posted By: Kansas Cat

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:47 AM

Hey Basher, see my post above. The stock market and the economy are two different things. The economy will take time to recover. The market will spike immediately when a vaccine is announced. If you don't have your stock positions in place, you will be late to the game.
Posted By: Gary Benson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:53 AM

Some fools from Omaha with too much money came to SE Nebr and paid $8500/acre for rocks and gumbo farmland. I guess they do have something solid. (Must've been two fools to run it that high.)
Posted By: bbasher

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:56 AM

Yup nobody cares about their investments when they are eating moldy bread or muskrat every day! Might as well gamble on the return of the economy. From what I’ve heard from medical professionals is that the vaccine will be effective as the flu shot. So it’s hard to get 100% effectiveness with a virus that can mutate. I wish people wouldn’t listen to the media and just live their lives. We’ll see what the world looks like post election
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:58 AM

Originally Posted by Sprung & Rusty
Originally Posted by white17

Be sure you save out enough to pay your taxes


How do they know how much profit he makes?



They can ask where he got the funds to pay off his mortgage if he gets audited. If he sells his silver to a dealer he will get a check most likely. That he will deposit in his bank account so he can draw on it. There is a record of that deposit.

So lets say the dealer writes him a check for 20K and he deposits it and writes his own check to pay off his mortgage.

The IRS asks where he got the funds for that ? Hmm What is this 20K deposit in your account ?

Jwill says "oh I sold some silver that I bought" IRS says ..."Looks like 20 K profit to us".

Jwill says "NO I paid 10K for it and have a record of the purchase."

IRS says ...
Good, you only have a 10K profit at 28% capital gains rate on precious metals so you owe and additional 2800 bucks in taxes.

That's how they know.
Posted By: Sprung & Rusty

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 02:06 AM

I never bought metals before. Do you have to prove what you paid for it? How would they know?
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 02:14 AM

Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
LOL. The sky is not falling. When a vaccine is announced, and it will be sooner rather than later, you will be very sorry if you are not heavily invested in common stocks that are near their 52 week low. The amount of money that will pour into these "value" stocks and industrials will be mind boggling. You saw a little preview of this when we first reopened, but virus cases surged and the trade got squashed. You will want to pick stocks that are viable long term. Some companies are on the way out and will not rebound like others.


What leads you to believe there will ever be a viable vaccine? Also when? Can the economy withstand this for another 6 to 18 months? How much money can they print before it's too much?
Posted By: Gary Benson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 02:15 AM

You are guilty until you can prove yourself innocent when it comes to the IRS.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 02:16 AM

If you are buying small amounts it likely will never come up. But, if you are buying and selling through a broker there will be a record of every transaction. Remember, those broker/dealers are in business too and need to be able to prove their own expenses at tax time.

I don't mess with metals but I would not be surprised if it is very much like trading securities in a brokerage account. IRS gets a copy of every transaction I make...both buying and selling. My broker sends a record to the IRS.

When I file my return i better have a hardcopy of every one of those transactions and they better agree with what the IRS has already received.

If I were trading precious metals stocks it would be the same. There is no way that Uncle Sam lets people slide just because they are trading the physical metal rather than a paper or electronic version.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 02:17 AM

Originally Posted by Sprung & Rusty
I never bought metals before. Do you have to prove what you paid for it? How would they know?


Yes you have to prove how much you paid and if you can't they'll assume you paid zero.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 02:21 AM

Ken, there are plenty of ways to sell one's metal for cash, that doesn't mean a person doesn't have to report it but it happens. Same as selling hay, cattle, fur, cars, or anything of value or services There are lots of cash transactions that happen and taxes aren't reported.

Stocks in mining companies aren't any different than stocks in other companies.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 02:25 AM

Agreed but if you go to pay off your mortgage they aren't likely to be happy to see you with a wad of cash and will more than likely ask the "origin of those funds" depending on the amount
Posted By: Gary Benson

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 02:32 AM

Heck, even if some law officers stop you and discover a pile of cash, you'd better be able to prove where you got it. It ain't just the IRS.
In NE, if LEO finds illegal cash, the county gets to keep it. The LEO likes that stuff.
Posted By: mainer

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 02:44 AM

Originally Posted by bbasher
I think the serious trappers on this forum would do well when times get tough. The guys that are posting 88 times a day are screwed

grin grin
Posted By: Kansas Cat

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:08 AM

49er, who said anything about a "viable" vaccine. Approved and viable are two different things. IMO it will be announced before the election. Russia is rolling one out August 10th. Surely ours won't be far behind.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:13 AM

I see.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:17 AM

Originally Posted by Kansas Cat
49er, who said anything about a "viable" vaccine. Approved and viable are two different things. IMO it will be announced before the election. Russia is rolling one out August 10th. Surely ours won't be far behind.



I read an article in one of the financial rags a couple days ago and they were actually predicting October 29 for an approval date.

I am really skeptical of that.
Posted By: Kansas Cat

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:21 AM

Politics will certainly play a part in the announcement date. Do you think it will be earlier or later than the 29th?
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:24 AM

I am hoping it is later because I think it will be detrimental to Trump if it is that close. It will be viewed as an October surprise. I think FDA is not going to cut corners in order to approve anything just because of the election. At least I hope not
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:27 AM

If they roll out a vaccine within 12 months from now there is no way I'll take it. I don't need to grow a third leg.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:28 AM

I would like to see something before turkey season though !! laugh
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:29 AM

Stay home for a year if your worried about contracting it.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:32 AM

I have been laugh The odds are greatly against me........

Turkeys and pheasants are tough to resist though
Posted By: Kansas Cat

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:35 AM

The announcement alone will change the trajectory of everything. I was just thinking about what the October surprise will be. Durham will surely figure in there somewhere.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:39 AM

I agree that any positive announcement will have quite an impact.

I would hope Durham has several people behinds bars long before October. The tragedy is that all of that gets swept away if Trump loses. Evil will triumph
Posted By: Kansas Cat

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:41 AM

Only temporarily.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:42 AM

I'd like to be an optimist but I doubt it would work out laugh
Posted By: Kansas Cat

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:45 AM

You can never go wrong by being an optimist as long as you still prepare for the worst. LOL.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:47 AM

laugh
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 10:28 AM

That's called being prudent
Posted By: Finster

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 10:45 AM

Originally Posted by white17
If you are buying small amounts it likely will never come up. But, if you are buying and selling through a broker there will be a record of every transaction. Remember, those broker/dealers are in business too and need to be able to prove their own expenses at tax time.

I don't mess with metals but I would not be surprised if it is very much like trading securities in a brokerage account. IRS gets a copy of every transaction I make...both buying and selling. My broker sends a record to the IRS.

When I file my return i better have a hardcopy of every one of those transactions and they better agree with what the IRS has already received.

If I were trading precious metals stocks it would be the same. There is no way that Uncle Sam lets people slide just because they are trading the physical metal rather than a paper or electronic version.

Correct me if I'm wrong but it will really only post red flags to the IRS if the transaction is over $5000 correct? Not that you don't have to pay taxes on all of it anyway but it's sort of off the radar until the magic number of $5000. I'm talking selling off physical gold and silver not stocks or other things on paper.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 01:32 PM

I can't answer that Finster but I would say there is really no set amount that they look for.

What they will look for is a discrepancy in how much you claim to have spent relative to how much you claim to have earned.

If your gross income is 100k and you show expenses of 150k, they will want to know how you did that. It may be legit but it may not be.

All this assumes that they audit you for some reason. A big discrepancy in the gross numbers ( which is 'noticed' electronically) will get the attention of a human. And remember, if they once find something questionable in your 2019 return, they now have the authority to go back and look at previous returns.

Steven49: Do you receive a 1099 from a dealer at the beginning of tax season ?
Posted By: cfowler

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 03:37 PM

For what it’s worth, if I purchase “junk” colonial silver at a pawn store, taxes aren’t collected. It’s a currency exchange.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 05:44 PM

Originally Posted by white17
I

Steven49: Do you receive a 1099 from a dealer at the beginning of tax season ?


I have not sold any physical metals, the conditions haven't been met yet for me to sell any. My hope is to never sell them, if I do it's means it's hit the fan so to speak. If I want to invest in metals I buy stocks in mining companies.

I have no idea if a dealer would 1099 a person. If I ever sell it's most likely going to be a private transaction.

cfowler, states have different sets of rules for tax on metals. MN would tax that transaction, it also taxes buying bullion.
Posted By: white17

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 05:54 PM

Thanks Steven. I agree that the miners give you a lot more bang for the buck just because of their leverage. Riskier too for the same reason
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: Depression is coming - 08/05/20 11:18 PM

Originally Posted by white17
Thanks Steven. I agree that the miners give you a lot more bang for the buck just because of their leverage. Riskier too for the same reason


I prefer physical but it has its limitations at times.
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