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"In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash

Posted By: Newt

"In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/06/21 10:41 PM

Soon after biden takes office. Followed by a World Wide Depression
Posted By: Boco

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/06/21 10:43 PM

Get out now-sell sell sell.
Posted By: HobbieTrapper

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/06/21 10:43 PM

Turn the dang tv off and git to making some snares.
Posted By: Newt

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/06/21 10:46 PM

This is how I take a break. From making snares.

TV is mostly on OAN
Posted By: Diggerman

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/06/21 10:48 PM

No, we will see hyper inflation, stock market will go up and up , but your money will not be worth anything. Stocks are basically unsecured loans.
Posted By: HobbieTrapper

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 12:05 AM

Originally Posted by Newt
This is how I take a break. From making snares.

TV is mostly on OAN


lol
Posted By: Bob_Iowa

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 01:15 AM

I’m selling corn for next because I’m worried about this, markets don’t like change and that’s coming, and it usually means a downward trend but how far down is anyone’s guess.
Posted By: Posco

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 01:20 AM

Originally Posted by Newt
Soon after biden takes office. Followed by a World Wide Depression

And newly revived $4 a gallon gas. Can't wait.
Posted By: Flipper

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 01:27 AM

The first year after an election the market has rallied no matter what party is in control. I had friends that sold right before the election and missed out on the post election rally
Posted By: Boco

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 01:33 AM

Originally Posted by Flipper
The first year after an election the market has rallied no matter what party is in control. I had friends that sold right before the election and missed out on the post election rally


You might be right but they dont live in "Newt's World".
Posted By: BernieB.

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 01:34 AM

Seriously if I had much in the stock market it would be out in the next two months. Bubble is going to burst. Betcha.
Posted By: Law Dog

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 01:45 AM

Gas is creeping up so it begins.
Posted By: white17

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 01:59 AM

Originally Posted by BernieB.
Seriously if I had much in the stock market it would be out in the next two months. Bubble is going to burst. Betcha.



I would suggest there is more than one bubble. It might be advantageous to identify which bubble you think will burst.

There are still many sectors of the economy that have not participated in any recovery and that is true in market also.

If you noticed the divergence between the indexes today that might cause one to rethink the doom & gloom scenario
Posted By: Posco

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 02:06 AM

Originally Posted by Law Dog
Gas is creeping up so it begins.


Biden's base rides mass transit or skateboards, they won't be impacted.
Posted By: stinkypete

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 02:07 AM

Oil and prison stocks buy. You should of bought theses stocks back in the summer. Should of sold of your tech stocks a week ago. Apple fell 20 dollars in the last week. Warren Buffet. Buy fearlessly when the market are falling. Buy with fear when the markets are rising. The market surged like it was on fire today
Posted By: white17

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 02:29 PM

Originally Posted by Diggerman
. Stocks are basically unsecured loans.



I'd appreciate hearing your thinking behind that comment.
Posted By: coop

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 02:31 PM

We'll all be eating bunker here on the Delaware Bay...
Posted By: Bob Jameson

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 02:44 PM

I didn't think anyone ate bunker. smile It makes a great bait and bait fish though.
Posted By: Bob Jameson

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 02:46 PM

Just invested a month ago hope old Newt isn't right.
Posted By: Trapper7

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 02:51 PM

Originally Posted by Newt
This is how I take a break. From making snares.

TV is mostly on OAN

I watch NewsMax too, but prefer OAN.
I only watch FOX when Sean or Laura is on. Getting to be too many from the far left on there.
Posted By: grapestomper

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 04:20 PM

I think stocks are still good for 3-4 months yet.
Has to be a big correction coming though.
Posted By: SNIPERBBB

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 04:24 PM

It will probably melt up first, huge stimulus/money printing will probably happen. Then the crash will happen soon afterwards.
Posted By: SNIPERBBB

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 04:25 PM

Bitcoin is nearing 40k, dunno what gold is doing but it's probably rising. My crypto portfolio has doubled in the last week and tripled since the election. Dollar is tanking
Posted By: Trapper7

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 04:27 PM

According to the show, Gold Rush, gold is rising.
Posted By: patrapperbuster

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 05:45 PM

Originally Posted by BernieB.
Seriously if I had much in the stock market it would be out in the next two months. Bubble is going to burst. Betcha.



Our country is in irreversible DEBT. When the whole plandemic started i thought it was just an excuse to print more money to save a crash from coming. It sure seems that way. It has all got to collapse at some point.
Posted By: Posco

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 05:57 PM

A lot of people where I work have been raiding their 401(k). One of the guys I work with took $100,000 out of his and put it in the bank. What affect is that having on the markets?
Posted By: white17

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 06:22 PM

Originally Posted by Posco
A lot of people where I work have been raiding their 401(k). One of the guys I work with took $100,000 out of his and put it in the bank. What affect is that having on the markets?



Probably not much. When you compare it to the 200-300 billion dollars per day traded just on NASDAQ. Add all the other exchanges and it's a lot more than that.

I wonder what your colleague's motivation was for that transaction ?? It seems odd to me
Posted By: Posco

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 06:39 PM

Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by Posco
A lot of people where I work have been raiding their 401(k). One of the guys I work with took $100,000 out of his and put it in the bank. What affect is that having on the markets?


I wonder what your colleague's motivation was for that transaction ?? It seems odd to me


I think he was afraid the market was going to tank. He did this about two months ago.
Posted By: white17

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 06:49 PM

But normally there is the option to move to cash inside the structure of an IRA, 401K etc without making an actual withdrawal.
Posted By: teepee2

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 06:51 PM

Well he will have to add that to his income plus a 10% penalty for early withdrawal if he was under 59 1/2 hears old.
Posted By: Posco

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 06:57 PM

Originally Posted by white17
But normally there is the option to move to cash inside the structure of an IRA, 401K etc without making an actual withdrawal.


I assume he knew that, white. I'll quiz him next time I see him.
Originally Posted by teepee2
Well he will have to add that to his income plus a 10% penally for early withdrawal.


Is that under the rules for this COVID relief thing? That's how he took it out.
Posted By: bblwi

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 07:01 PM

I would sell corn or beans now to as the market is over bought, but by how much is the billion dollar question. If you don't want to sell try to buy some puts to protect prices as much as one can. If these prices hold into February when the crop insurance coverage prices are set one could be paying a lot more for crop insurance to protect prices that are already shown to be considerably lower for next year.
As to the market I am holding. I have survived 1987, Y-2K, 911, 2009 etc. etc. and holding course has worked well for me.
Bryce
Posted By: teepee2

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 07:02 PM

Boy you got me there, I don't know about early withdrawal rules dew to COVID. They did extend the mandatory withdrawal age one Year to 71 1/2 years so I got the opportunity to wait one year.
Posted By: white17

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 07:05 PM

There are some waivers due to the covid stuff. So i think he's probably ok on the taxes and penalty. I also think he has three years to repay the money back into his 401K


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/few...covid-19-rules-for-401k-withdrawals.html
Posted By: snowy

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 07:07 PM

Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by Diggerman
. Stocks are basically unsecured loans.



I'd appreciate hearing your thinking behind that comment.

Lol! Me too.
Posted By: snowy

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 07:12 PM

I have no intention of selling any equity/bonds at all. I have read thou that a 15% sell off early in this year would be a reality. I will ride the storm out even if it takes a year or two. I buy and hold and hunker down when the skies are uncertain.

I may crash and I beleive a 30% drop or more is called a crash. We all have seen those 3 to 4 bad times through the years.

I actually believe markets will get very strong after things settle down. More regulations more dictatorship leadership will have supply/demands in a revved up gear.
Posted By: white17

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 07:32 PM

20% is considered a "crash". I consider it an opportunity smile
Posted By: snowy

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by white17
20% is considered a "crash". I consider it an opportunity smile

Thanks.
Posted By: Newt

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 08:09 PM

Originally Posted by Bob Jameson
Just invested a month ago hope old Newt isn't right.


I invested all that I have made in life in "NEWT'S WORLD"
Enjoyed every penny.
Tho I did put some away for a rainy day

It rained last week
Posted By: SNIPERBBB

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 08:09 PM

Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by Diggerman
. Stocks are basically unsecured loans.



I'd appreciate hearing your thinking behind that comment.

Aren't stocks really just loans that instead of paying back with cash, youre paying it back with
Increasing the.value of the company and the divedends are the interest payments. Just a loan with a really loose contract.
Posted By: white17

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 08:14 PM

I guess what I was wondering is.........to whom was the loan made ?
Posted By: BernieB.

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 08:27 PM

Originally Posted by snowy
I have no intention of selling any equity/bonds at all. I have read thou that a 15% sell off early in this year would be a reality. I will ride the storm out even if it takes a year or two. I buy and hold and hunker down when the skies are uncertain.

I may crash and I beleive a 30% drop or more is called a crash. We all have seen those 3 to 4 bad times through the years.

I actually believe markets will get very strong after things settle down. More regulations more dictatorship leadership will have supply/demands in a revved up gear.


Things may nor may not settle down in the next 10 years. I think this nation as we know it has come to an end for good. What we are seeing now is just the beginning.
Posted By: 330-Trapper

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 08:31 PM

Originally Posted by Posco
Originally Posted by Law Dog
Gas is creeping up so it begins.


Biden's base rides mass transit or skateboards, they won't be impacted.

Non oxy scooter fuel will be untouchable grin
Posted By: Posco

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 08:33 PM

Originally Posted by 330-Trapper
Originally Posted by Posco
Biden's base rides mass transit or skateboards, they won't be impacted.

Non oxy scooter fuel will be untouchable grin


I figured they had a way of buying them off.
Posted By: 330-Trapper

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 08:36 PM

No they soak their bubble yum in it...better than crank man
Posted By: Quartermastersir

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 08:55 PM

Snowy- we stayed in the market thru two downturns, my wife's monopoly money profit sharing account lost over 200 grand...twice. And it all came back and surpassed previous highs. If your young enough to accept the downturn and patient enough to wait for the recovery, you are on the right track.
Of course we were in our forties and in 08 we were in our early fifties. now that we're pulling money out of the monopoly money pile we locked it down.
11/2 years of income in cash, 1/2 leftover pile in stable bonds etc, and the other 1/2 left in equities but not as aggressive as we were in our younger years.
The interesting caveat to this theory is we are used to working with capitalist economy and all of our experiences and nuances are based on that. In the future we may have a more socialistic economy, and nobody in the financial planning industry that I have talked with is quite sure what that holds.
Posted By: SNIPERBBB

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 09:03 PM

Originally Posted by white17
I guess what I was wondering is.........to whom was the loan made ?

The initial "loan" was made to the company issuing the stock. That's the iPO in most cases. Though for most of us, we aren't giving the company money, we're buying the "loan" from the original or subsequent owners.
Posted By: white17

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 09:14 PM

But even in the ipo the underwriters are receiving something of value for the value they exchange for the stock. The value they receive may be nowhere near the amount they pay for it and that is why they lay off those shares as soon as the IPO starts trading. They are counting on that first day initial pop to make their profits.

The true loans are the funds provided by those who buy the company bonds.......if any.


I could agree if it was looked at as owning a piece of the company for an indefinite time period, for a fixed price up front, and at the same time renting the price action in the shares
Posted By: Furvor

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 10:03 PM

Stock market levels reflect optimism, or lack of it, by big money managers - mutual funds, pension funds, etc., not small investors. Stock averages are high as a kite right now based on expectation of $2k stimulus checks, expectation of decreasing virus lockdowns, and fact that bond yields are in 1% yield or lower range. Looks dangerous to me. It could go higher but if it begins sliding enough to make big money managers nervous a crash will occur.
Posted By: coop

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 10:07 PM

Bob... I've seen a couple people TRY to eat a bunker, on a dare, drunk, or both... never seen anyone finish one.
Posted By: bblwi

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 10:21 PM

I can see the point of the post regarding buying stocks or securities as a unsecured loan, especially the stocks. This is mostly from the firms aspect in my opinion. When we buy shares we actually loan money to the firm and they don't need to go to the bank to borrow those funds. We are actually funding the business and are hopeful that they manage well and succeed. One of the major differences is that we can call the loan ( or sell off our stock) when ever we want to but it does not mean the firm loses the funds as that means someone else now owns your former stock. Sure those stocks can and do lose monies and that impacts a firms liquidity and business management. The other difference is that a 3rd party is involved for a fee to buy and sell our stock or loan and they make money even if the other two parties do not.

Bryce
Posted By: stinkypete

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 11:03 PM

I bought oil stock in March of 2019. When everything was tanking. They hit rock bottom on my stock options in July and August. I continued to buy up until Oct. Started selling Oil stock a few weeks ago. Hanging on to 50 percent. Started investing into private prison stock in Oct of 2019. My portfolio is well rounded. Stocks, bonds, mutual funds. ETFs. I don’t care about politics or anything else. This new administration is interested in different venues then the last administration. Use that to your advantage. History proves staying invested will put you ahead in the long run. A lot has to do with where you are at in your live. What you are willing to risk. I wish everyone financial freedom.
Posted By: charles

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/07/21 11:30 PM

We have been in a bull market for a long time. Several stock market dives have been short lived. Not sure what will cause a continued decline. The US is still a safe haven for most of the world. There is a demand for our bonds, which pay a better yield than those in European nations, many of which have negative. Interest rates. This completion for our US debt is keeping rates down, which is good for corporate stocks. The competition for our bonds is what I watch as an investor.
Posted By: snowy

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/08/21 12:03 AM

Originally Posted by BernieB.
Originally Posted by snowy
I have no intention of selling any equity/bonds at all. I have read thou that a 15% sell off early in this year would be a reality. I will ride the storm out even if it takes a year or two. I buy and hold and hunker down when the skies are uncertain.

I may crash and I beleive a 30% drop or more is called a crash. We all have seen those 3 to 4 bad times through the years.

I actually believe markets will get very strong after things settle down. More regulations more dictatorship leadership will have supply/demands in a revved up gear.


Things may nor may not settle down in the next 10 years. I think this nation as we know it has come to an end for good. What we are seeing now is just the beginning.

Well, you maybe be right or maybe wrong. Times have been changing since God was boy and doesn't mean the markets will good or bad. I look at the positive side to things and I believe in there will be bear markets and bull markets and live for another day. I beleive the longest recession was just under 4 years long and the last 3 been around one year and under. Times go bad times get better the way of life.
Posted By: keets

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/08/21 12:19 AM

last year I put my yearly ROTH contribution in on March 20......call it lucky or good, I nailed it, for now, I'm waiting again.....could be a correction coming about the same time
Posted By: TreedaBlackdog

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/08/21 12:36 AM

The last 4 years have been very good for my investments. Avg 22% and 32% the last 2 years and well above 15% before that (can't remember). It is a very nice feeling when your investments make more money than I bring home in a year.

I am dumping more money into a HSA (health savings) as I see it as the only method of putting money in tax free....also the growth is also tax free in future for health uses.
Posted By: snowy

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/08/21 12:39 AM

^ market timing! That is like playing Russian Roulette.
Posted By: white17

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/08/21 01:47 AM

Originally Posted by bblwi
I can see the point of the post regarding buying stocks or securities as a unsecured loan, especially the stocks. This is mostly from the firms aspect in my opinion. When we buy shares we actually loan money to the firm and they don't need to go to the bank to borrow those funds. We are actually funding the business and are hopeful that they manage well and succeed. One of the major differences is that we can call the loan ( or sell off our stock) when ever we want to but it does not mean the firm loses the funds as that means someone else now owns your former stock. Sure those stocks can and do lose monies and that impacts a firms liquidity and business management. The other difference is that a 3rd party is involved for a fee to buy and sell our stock or loan and they make money even if the other two parties do not.

Bryce



I'm confused here Bryce. You say that...." When we buy shares we actually loan money to the firm and they don't need to go to the bank to borrow those funds".

I'm pretty sure you know that when a retail trader/investor buys 100 shares of stock, the company is not a party to that transaction and never sees one dime from it. In fact the company doesn't even know we exist.

Our transactions are between two counter parties who have no idea who is on the other end of the trade.

Companies may BUY their own shares in the open market but in order to sell shares they must get prior approval from the SEC and announce a secondary offering. Even then, those shares are bought by the underwriting banks . Those banks give the money to the company and then make those shares available to the public at a price higher than the one they paid the bank. At no time is a retail trader dealing directly with the company.

Would you still view it as a loan when you know up front that you may never get as much back as you put in ? I don't know anyone who would consider that a loan.


Now if you are involved in a DSP program that's a different story. But it also comes with additional fees and restrictions on timing of sales and purchases.
Posted By: WHSKR

Re: "In NEWT'S World" The stock market will crash - 01/08/21 02:49 AM

I think a good policy is to put a regular amount into the market over a long period of time. If you have the cash to also build a cash account and can afford to invest more on all 10 percent pull backs and all 20 percent pull backs you can capitalize on the pull backs without gambling the long term benefits of regular investing.
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