I suspect that CA will request an en banc hearing from the 9th and that will be the end of the favorable ruling until another ten years have passed. Once SCOTUS is configured the way the DEMS prefer it, then the case might be heard at that level.
Or, more likely, the 9th will issue a permanent stay and just never get around to hearing the case
I'm curious why you don't think that SCOTUS will take up this case; especially considering the current makeup of the court. I would assume that if the majority are contructionists, they would want to address this before the Court might be changed by court packing.
A couple of reasons.
First, before it can get to SCOTUS there needs to be two or more conflicting decisions from the appellate level. Let's assume that the 9th circuit smacks down the lower court's decision. Then the plaintiffs could appeal to SCOTUS. But 2A cases have been rejected for the past ten years because the strict constuctionists on the court could not trust that Roberts would not betray them. So they might not hear this challenge to CA law. I don't really think that calculus has changed very much. We sure can't count on Roberts and I'm not convinced about Kavanaugh either.
But if the 9th supports the lower court AND for instance IL or NY pass a similar law, and IF it was challenged up to the circuit level, and IF that different circuit found against IL/NY now you have two opposing decisions on the same issue, from two different appellate courts.
I think SCOTUS would be more likely to consider hearing that case..............but it would take several years to get to that point.
The best that we can reasonably hope for is that the 9th circuit will uphold the lower court's decision. I will be very surprised if that happens.
CA may not appeal that decision if they fear that SCOTUS will rule against them. A decision like that would apply to the entire country rather than only those states covered by the 9th circuit. Democrats do not want that outcome.