More Incompetant: Russian AF or Army?

As a former military pilot with Combat missions over Iraq and Bosnia, I am dumbfounded at Russia's performance inUkraine. Make no mistake, I am squarely on the side of Ukraine here, and recently found out a former roommate has traveled there to offer his services ,(probably as a Forward Air Controller). I think we're at day 11, or thereabouts, and Russia doesn't have Air Superiority yet, recent post attack satellite photos show hangars burning but runways not cratered, both sides are freely using cell phones and unencrypted radios, Ukrainian leadership is relatively cornered in bunkers, yet haven't been dug out by bunker buster bombs, Russian aircraft are flying at relatively low altitude and getting picked off by man pads, (indicating they're still in danger of Ukrainian fighters and SAMs. The Russians have been described for many years as having a very robust jamming and mobile SAM capabilities. In fact, I would say those were the strongpoints in their AirPower portfolio. Do any of you with ground forces military experience (notice I didn't say Army out of genuine respect for USMC) see gross incompetence in the Russian ground game? The stalled convoy comes to mind here. I think Russia will eventually prevail, but boy, they look like amateurs so far.

You're really going to upset a lot of old men on Tman with that kind of talk. Quite a few guys support russias incursion.

Always had the belief the U.S. military is superior...In a conventional war the U.S. alone would wax Russia.

The Afhgans have said the same.

And who would they be, if you do find someone, use quotes.

To me, they way the invasion looks it almost has to be done intentionally bad. Either it was a bluff that got callwd so they are trying to save face and get concessions at the same time. If its true incompetence, we should just own Russian like Patton wanted

Ive seen maps that show russia controling about half of ukraine, in 11 days. What would it look like if things went good?

I'm sorry that out of 100,000,000 Americans, you are the only one who saw it.

Again, I have no dog in this fight, But am interested in this scuffle. There are alot of experts here so I am wondering, just how long does it take to take over a country the size of Ukraine?

Joe and NATO can give you that answer.

For the record I'm on the Ukrainian side of things if for no other reason than the one my Johny Reb forebearer gave a bluebelly when asked why are you fighting, because you are here. I will say there's always two sides of a story and I'm to far away to read the tea leaves.

Now that out of the way for our forum stirrers

I've been wondering much the same thing. While my study of Ivan is quite dated going back to the time of their collapse what I'm seeing is appalling failure of doctrine, equipment maintenance and training. While I long suspected the Russian bear was over rated in ability due to being able to field large numbers of men and material much of that was conscripted labor untrained in the western mode of initiative and innovation this performance so far looks for all the world to be lacking in any core cadre in both commissioned and non. I mean core fundamentals are glaringly obvious to the point of disbelief.
I'm having difficulty assuming this isn't some sort of stage play on a grand scale. Either that or Russia has been lied to and done a grave disservice by her military professionals. What I'm seeing is no better than one could expect from the poorest and longest out of service reserve formation.

On the Ukrainian side I lack enough detail yet to form an opinion though it's shocking that they are still in the field and apparently holding their own considering the supposed potential of their adversary.

Wonder when we will start to see public executions to put the fear into the people living there? Oh, I guess bombing innocent women and children's houses could be considered scary enough.

interesting comment and observation, I do agree, I was taught the Russians were a very formidable warrior; please note the following

1) about 30% conscripts: says alot for an all volunteer military over a draft. no motivation to fight. (only hirer those that want to fight)
2) totally different type of leadership, take out the top and it falls apart
3) poor equipment maintenance, seems like money to maintain the military was siphoned off. the equipment is breaking down (same with basic needs)
4) there war machine was not designed to be supported, We learned in WWII, Korea, Vietnam and Iraq, (8 to 10 support people to field one door kicker) We moved 9 divisions in OIF II in about 93 days, I was there it was the largest logistic move since WWII.
5) Comms: and electronic warfare.......wow..... we even allowed cell service in Iraq.
6) The cold war games of the 70s: predicted that some of the Soviet Block would turn on the Russians, but we also felt some of NATO would cut and run also.
7) So a BlitzKreig attack did not work against a a motivated defender, Ukrainians are not TCN's that cut and run. History has shown TCN's for the most part will cut and run. Corrupt leadership kill off all free thinkers and disidents or they get sent to the Gulag.
8) Ukrainian leadership is out fighting and leading from the front. Judging by the sniper activity they are way out front. Took out a couple big leaders.
9) They have shown they do not know how to adapt and overcome under fire.
10) Bringing in Chechnians and Syrians, they showed their hand on that one.

In short I think it has to do with rot from within (corrupt government) and they never thought they would fight: the leadership was disconnect from the boots on the ground. Freedom is an interesting thing to fight for. That's why most vets do not get along with civilians.

Thanks for serving. Chief Hanson USN/USNR retired

This question woulf largely depends on the purpose of the invasion. If you just wanted to wipe them off thr map, shouldn't take long. If you want to capture it with its industry and infrastructure more or less intact so you can use it with minimal rebuilding. Pacification could take years, regardless depending on the locals

Maybe russia does not want to spend trillions rebuilding like we did in iraq?

Personally I have seen very little info on this that I would trust to be true, most of the sensational stories have been proved to be false.

Not sure why any American would fight for the new world order/eu.....ukraine is their proxy.

There's a whole lot about this war that doesn't make sense on both their sides. From military decisions/lack of obvious decisions to a (imo) staggering lack of footage/reporting to the over all lack of apparent strategies and "fight". My simplified take on this dumb war is that Putin was playing a big game of chicken with NATO and had no real strategy to invade but then was forced to when his bluff was called out. The Ukrainians are putting up an ok fight but not what would be expected based on how much international money and arms has been tossed their way over the years. When its all said and over folks will remember why the Ukraine has been called the most corrupt country in Europe because imo it'll come out that a lot of the money and arms was embezzled and side tracked to line the pockets of lord know who all, there and around the world. Putin will have an eye opener, too about the corruption with in his own ranks/generals. Nobody, least of all the average Ukrainian and Russian citizen, " wins" this war. That's what sucks the most about it. I've got no dog in this fight one side or the either btw.

I still wonder, Where do you guys get all this info? There is nothing to this effect on the news channels, atleast not this detailed.

You have to get away from MSM and look for independent creators on the various streaming sites, foreign news sources, written word articles searched on non big tech engines. Then cross reference to determine credibility of authorship and facts.

Then run it all through a strainer of disbelief.

X2, I don't believe any of the so called news coverage is totally truthful, especially the coverage the Russian people are being force fed.
And all of the comments about Ukraine corruption, how does that justify Putin’s invasion ? maybe Canada should invade the USA, talk about corruption ?

Oh crap, they didnt tell us that. I must reread the post above yours.

I think the other shoe is going to drop .

I don't believe mainstream media either. Neither CNN nor Fox, neither MSNBC nor OAN, etc. ad naseum. I look at raw footage from various twitter feeds and independent web sites and piece together a picture. This is simply Open Source Intel. For example, Russian Su-30/-34/-35 jets splashed by Manpads. No reason for those jets to be down low in Manpad territory if you have air dominance, (sort of air superiority lite), and precise enough weapons. Stay above the ubiquitous Manpad threat and strike from above. Textbook example of this was "highway of death " NW of Kuwait in 1991. Everything we had, to include F-16/15E/18/111s and A10s stayed well above 10,000' to avoid Iraqi Sa7/14s and plinked tanks/trucks/etc by the 100s.

If the russians do not have air superiority why is ukraine calling for a no fly zone?

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-is-the-vks-underperforming

Another observation: flat tires. Can you disable a wheeled fighting vehicle with small arms by puncturing enough tires? Please tell me my tax dollars bought run-flat tires for our Strykers. I've seen a lot of pictures of Russian-built, wheeled fighting vehicles abandoned with flat tires.

I heard that when vehicles are stored for long periods and not rotated the uv deterioration can make tires weak.

Thanks White17. Just read that article, and it all makes sense, reinforces my observations. Janes is a respected, Open Source Intelligence resource that is used throughout the world. I'm guessing Russian Intelligence agencies have deluxe subscriptions, I know American ones did.

Can't speak to the Russian ones but American wheeled combat vehicles do have run flats and usually on board inflation systems. With our recent issues in the box many of the uparmored logistics vehicles do as well.

Another puzzling thing? If the tires were that rotten just how did they get them to the staging areas? Did they road them or drop ship them by rail?
I recall a few big moves both by road and rail and the weeks leading up to those exercises was mostly about putting on good rubber and making everything roadworthy.

It’s definitely not the military might of the USSR for sure. Nor is it an invasion like I would have imagined or thought. I just don’t understand if it’s intentional or they are actually that inept.

Thank you for that that run-flat tire info, warrior. I'll sleep slightly better knowing that.

Surely they train for battle readiness.

Russia could be holding back waiting on the US

I think Sniper is closer to reality here.



And exactly why wasn't that miles long convoy been taken out, at least major sections of it if the Ukes still had viable attack aircraft?

As for all the pics of burned out, knocked out, disabled trucks, wheeled vehicles, or apcs, how do you know what side they belong to given that the Rus and the Ukes use much of the same equipment?

I haven't bombed anyone but I having been studying military history for 50 years. Anybody ever really read a lot about the Russian (Soviets-- a lot of boys in now independent countries fought with the Russians) war with the Germans during WWII--the most German casualties of that conflict was on the eastern front. Or even back to Napoleon's little foray into the Russian Empire in 1812. He sat in Moscow during part of fall and winter and wondered why the Russians weren't surrendering to him?? And by the European thaw in 1813, his 600,000 "Grand Armee" of 1812 basically ceased to exist. Almost all of the losses from logistics and climate-weather.

Yeah, maybe the modern Russian military is ***t or maybe it isn't. Just because it doesn't make sense to American war fighters doesn't it doesn't mean it doesn't make sense to the Rus. Maybe the Ukes will kill all. I guess we're just have to see...

True that. The Russian steppe, Russian weather and Slavic mind are all hard to fathom.

"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near." Sun Tzu

Have you seen all the videos of "Russian POW's" claiming they were tricked into this fight... That they had no food, That they lacked fuel or ammo?

Might be true. Or it might be what they were briefed to say upon capture. Misinformation that convinces your enemy to believe that he has you on the ropes is right out of "The Art of War"

Send in the JV team first and have them fight just hard enough to keep the thing going... Goad the enemy into forming "lines"... then drop the hammer on them.

If I were the Ukrainians I would be very cautious about being emboldened by perceived success... The worst thing they could do would be to abandon their present tactics in favor of a face to face battle. They should adhere to stick-and-move and look at holding out long term.

The Russians may be genuinely doing poorly... Or they could be performing poorly to trick their enemy into being confident and drawing closer.

Mike

Because NATO jets would enforce a no fly zone. NATO involvement will pull us into World War 3.

the ukraine af was destroyed on the first day of the conflict

The Soviet Union had 130 million more people, more assets and thus more money and revenues for the USSR to use for military etc. With the few very rich storing their assets in foreign countries and Russia just not a an economic engine there just is not the funds to build up and maintain a superior and ready military. This invasion is very telling regarding Russia's economic position in the world and I am sure it bothers them that the rest of the world is seeing that. The Ukrainians are holding out well but Russia just has the critical mass to take the major cities, infrastructure etc. Now do they have the military, funds and persistence to hold those? We don't know how committed they will be. Probably one of the reasons they were hoping to have the administration flee quickly so they could set up a pro Russian government and not have to engage for as long as they have. It is always different being the invader into a land where the people will fight you with stones and clubs if necessary. The Russians had a decade already and trying to hold a nation at bay internally will be very costly for both. For the Russians, economic and world station, for Ukraine many civilian lives, infrastructure and economy. I personally feel from talking with those that taught over there a couple decades ago that the Ukrainians can recover faster from being shelled, beaten and killed then the Russians will by whatever victory they would like to claim.

Bryce

Iv been saying for a bit the Russians haven't seemed to learn many lessons from prior engagements. Isn't this the first time since WWII that they have actually had air on air battles ?

Soviet pilots flew extensively against Americans during the Korean War. Recently, they have some experience over Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria. In fact, a Russian Pilot, pictured with Putin and Assad in Syria, was recently shot down and captured in Ukraine. So their current generations of pilots have some combat experience, but little if any real air to air fighting in those conflicts. You could, however, say the same thing about Americans though. Not much hot air to air since 1st Gulf War.

I'm baffled by the lack of use of IED's by the Ukrainians . They were expecting this , they had time to build plant them . And command detonated IED's wreck havoc. I'm surprised we haven't seen it.

Russia has a has underestimated the will of people who have had a taste of freedom. Even if the Russians defeat the Ukrainian army they wont be able to defeat the will of the people. It will be a war of exhausting attrition for the dictators forces to keep it occupied. Look at past wars it does not work trying to win the hearts and minds when you have killed their families that kind of hate and revenge can go on forever.

Interesting,thank you for the info

Give it time. The Russians are about to learn just how deep they're going to have to commit to this. Once the IEDs start being deployed in large numbers you'll see what happens to their plan.

I think your spot on here Mike. Anyone who thinks Putin doesn't know what he's doing, or that he's got this all wrong, is fooling themselves. The man is ruthless yes, but he's also very intelligent.

Propaganda is nothing new. It's been a part of warfare since the beginning of times.

How long did it take too occupie Iraq? Nearly a month???

Totally different country geographically

Not sure why everyone thinks the Russians should take Ukrain in a week

Didn't Iraq have the 4th largest army in the world at the time? I remember hearing that but b ever confirmed it.

I also probably under estimate the size and terrain of the Ukraine. I'm guessing most Americans do as well.

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I don't think Bad (Mad) Vlad wants to occupy Ukraine, I think he wants concessions from them, such as them being like Finland, basically being neutral and not joining NATO, etc. The western Euro elites are po'd because they lost a nice, "off-grid" place to laundry lots of dirty money, run their various human trafficking rings, and have "interesting" biologic labs. Sniffy's mad because his grift family gets cut off from any other Uke- Hunter-Jim deals, and Prez Barry behind the scenes gets his way of a wider war, something that he and his minions have wanted since 2014. Remember why DJT was impeached the first time in 2019/2020, he wouldn't give the Ukes (Zelinsky phone call) certain "defense" money

Meanwhile, the average, common, good Ukrainian suffers because of a fight between two (actually 3 or 4) organized global crime syndicates.

Lots of truth in this.

One headline reads" Russian convoy stalled on road in Ukraine", In the next report it is "Russians amass armored vehicles comfortably inside Ukraine border". Yup, who ya gonna beleive? A couple things that are not being disputed, There are alot of Russian vehicles etc. and they are IN Ukraine.

Instant Gratification.

Absolutely !!