Need to buy a house Wait until September

Homes sales will plummet in next couple months Showings and inquiries dropped almost 40 % in April. Down almost 60% from high By September house prices will be close to real values. You heard it hear first !

In your neighborhood or nationwide?

What constitutes a plummet?

20 percent?

More?

OK!!

Should we wait till early or late September?

Prices haven't dropped around here yet but now you are getting double screwed from high price and higher interest. Interest rates are around 5% now. Buying a house at 350k with 2% interest is the same payment as 240k at 5%. 350k at 2% is 1300/month. At 5% its pushing 1900.

Js 8 ball again

September huh?

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!

Yea and stock market was up 900 plus YESTERDAY! The things you named is why my prediction will come true ! By September money will run out , people will come to their senses

I heard it up ^^^ there first

"When the rate of inflation goes up, the fixed-interest rate financing you took out costs you less than when you took out the loan since the dollar has lost some of its value. You’re essentially paying the lender back money that’s worth less than what it was when you took out the loan.

Not only that, but wages and revenues tend to rise during periods of high inflation. So, if you’re making more money but your monthly payments for your financing stay the same, then the payments take up a smaller percentage of your working capital."

If mortgage rates stay under inflation rates, I'm not sure you are paying any interest?

Nostradamus strikes again.

Good God, Savell. That's just wrong.

Jbyrd must of read the same apple news article as I did today. Said wait 6-10 months. Economists predicting mortgage rates to hit peak in 1-2 months with a prediction of people who bought houses in the past 1-2 years becoming in financial trouble resulting with more houses becoming available at a more reasonable price.

House near me just had seven showings on the first day, and sold for $70k over asking price. I think it was a cash deal.

Just read that as many as 33% of home sales now are all cash transactions.

Some homes sell right away and others sit vacant for months. A lot depends on updates and open floor plans. They seem to move faster. Some businesses are buying homes to rent.

Fingers crossed. Need a housing crash so lumber will go down. Had a box stand not survive a spin up and I need to build another one.

I know ... pellet smokers are wrong on many levels

Haha

You just jealous slavell my smoked butt is gooooood!

Again I ask what constitutes a plummet? The fed can't let allow another housing market crash to happen. Once rates get high enough and liquidity low enough they will juice the markets again. Lowering rates and more QE. Anyone with any sense knows that rates should be 6 to 10 percent to quash the inflation but is that even possible anymore. They fixed the 08 debt bubble by tripling down debt.

It doesn't take much of a sooth sayer to ocme on say there is going to be a correction in the markets, practically every investment bank has been saying that for at least the last 3 months.

Hang on boys and girls it's going to be a heck of a ride, lets just hope the republic survives it.

You should get a 900 number Jbird.

Hopefully it will be very, very bad. Bad enough for the chaos to warrant a fresh start which follows the original intent of the founders. Send all the traitors to the oath up north to live with bocoman.

Can't buy all those money losing MBS's this time. They already own them.

My SIL said his bank has consistently been loaning about 8 to 9 million every month for several months this month they loaned 6 million

So when are used cars going to go down??? I need to get one.

Traditionally thats how money is created. The fed creates money and puts it into circulation with loans.

The last dust up in the late 1700's we did send those loyal to the british monarchy to canada. Its a wonder to me why people are surprised at the politics of their offspring.

In the last depression money was wealth. It was still backed by gold. Plenty of actual gold in the form of coins were in circulation too. That money didnt disappear. It just quit circulating. Staying in the possession of an elite few. A handful of people fought back. They were known as bank robbers.

Wealth today is real property. If the dollar collapses the people who hold liens will own the lions share of property. Once again small local banks will be gone. A few big ones too.

Today we have welfare. Once all the real property is taken people will have to become wards of the state to survive.

dont put a lien on anything you cant afford to lose is my advice

This is exactly why my position over the last couple years was that the government's plan to handle the national debt would eventually be to inflate their way out of it. It seems to me that it's so large that it may be too late for smart fiscal policy to work. But high inflation could make it easier to service the debt. I do not believe that anyone in government has any intention to ever stop adding to the debt let alone begin paying it off.

Exactly right Dana I

So, in a nation with 30 Trillion in debt and 90 Trillion in total debt....
the moneys gonna run out.
In September.

Now. That. Right. There. Is. Funny.

No way the Feds will raise interest rates high enough to get inflation in check, so we will be stuck with inflation. We as a nation are in trouble financially and there is no easy way out.

Jbyrd63 wins every time.

Run,
We'd need to convene a posse to determine the meaning of "win."
That would take us at least into infinity and beyond.
I really enjoy Toy Story.

I wonder who should be on this posse.

Blessings,
Mark

About a 30 % price adjustment will happen. As for fixing the 08 crash the people that got "fixed were the bankers and big industry , The poor saps that paid twice what the houses were worth didn't get bailed out. They got foreclosed on. The banks got the property PLUS bail out monies. Why didn't the feds give the money to the peope earmark to pay the mortages? Because they are in bed with the banks. The banks would have ended up with the funds anyway but if it had been done that way they wouldn't have gotten all those properties to sale at PURE PROFIT . Don't matter what the banks have if average joe can't afford to pay the loan because the price was too high to begin with the prices will come down.
When I say the money will run out I'm talking about the publics funds to use for houses cars and play toys. Heck how many times does someone say "supply and demand " runs the price gouging train. Well the demand will drop because people won't have the make believe money from the market and the hand out money will dry up.....
Just my observation

exactly the cause of the money to run out. That gets the "plummet" started

Great comeback.

Two things the banks owned the houses not the homebuyers because they have the deed. So the homebuyers didn't pay twice what they were worth. Who knows how much they lost? The government bought them from banks probably because the only reason these people got loans is because the government guaranteed to buy them if the home buyers defaulted. This was the deal going in. If I remember right. HUD ended up with all the homes.

"How many HUD foreclosures are available for sale in Louisville, KY? Right now, Louisville, KY currently has 2,849 HUD foreclosure listings available."

Get you one!

I predict fur prices will stink again next year, pretty safe prediction.

As far as the poor saps in 2008.

"10.Why people were taking loans?
In those times, even those people who had no source of income were getting loans to buy home. These people had near zero capability to payback the mortgage, but they still took the loan. Why?

Their logic was, as the price of homes were only going up, they can use it to their advantage. Example: Take a $100,000 loan, and buy a home. After few months sell the home for $102,000. Use the sale proceeds to pay back the loan, and pocket the balance as profit.

People were taking mortgages to do trading of real estate properties. To help such borrowers, banks offered incentives. The loans had lower monthly payments for the first few months.



11. Bursting of the housing bubble
A stage was reached in the US housing market where the borrowers started defaulting on their loans. Why the default? Because it was inevitable. How?

The cause was subprime mortgages. The loans were issued to people who had little capability to payback the loan. Hence, they eventually could not afford the ‘monthly payments’ – and their property went for foreclosure.

At a point in 2007-2008, there were more houses on sale than there were buyers for it. This triggered a steady price fall. The housing bubble bursted."

things that have been seen cannot be un seen,thanks a whole lot savell

I know you are simplifying this, BUT, along with the house comes ; 1.interest 2.Taxes 3.upkeep 4.realator fees. You will need atleast 10% gain to break even.

Many talk about not borrowing money, but if a lot of these people buying homes for 10-20% over asking prices are using cash to secure a lot of the purchase of those homes they have potentially a lot more to lose then those borrowing more of their funds. Bankruptcies under current laws are much cheaper and not as limiting as in the past and you did not lose hard earned cash either if the whole thing goes south.

Bryce

"What Is a No Down Payment Mortgage?
Zero-down or no-money-down mortgages were readily available prior to the subprime mortgage meltdown of 2008, when home values were rapidly rising and credit guidelines were more lax."

Don't forget the "interest only" loans.

Peee'U

Do you think that double naught spy secret has been declassified?

You actually have to have showings to do. For the last 6 months or so, our weekly real estate magazine has been super skinny, very few showings even though housing units are being built all over on the edges of the various pieces of the metro. Somebody is securing the loans or the buildings companies are just nuts and building on speculation. We'll see what happens. I'm not planning on selling anytime soon...

Most house here never get a sign in the yard, brokers have lists of buyers. Sellers list their house; agent makes a few calls, and the battle begins. 75% of sold homes in my area will bring 10-15% over asking. 85% are cash deals, close in 3 weeks.

Yes they are! I can't believe you posted a picture of one.Disgusting.

I don't disagree that housing and most broad markets will drop 30 percent sometime in the near future I would classify that as a plummet, more like a strong correction.

I'm expecting it to plummet. I understand that federal money as you put it isn't what is backstopping all this. It's money created out of thin air, a key stroke on a computer if you will. The federal reserve is funding this. Either through QE or artificial interest rates. Both juice the money supply.

if you believe the 2008 bailout only saved the banks you are gravely mistaken. It bailed out the markets of the entire world. All of them. The world was days or even hours away from a liquidity crisis like never experienced before. We are talking worse than the great depression. Me I think we should have let the free market fix the problem. We didn't. Now we have what we have. I seriously believe you have no idea what will happen if home prices and the stock market is allowed to fall. Deflation is a four letter word to the federal reserve. Worse than inflation. They will juice the pumps and when they do it will be hyper inflation like the Weimar Republic experienced. None of us will escape it unscathed. None of us. The dollar will almost assuredly lose reserve status.

What does that mean? Well we don't need to go down that road, as I posted earlier, hopefully the republic stays intact.

Mr. Steven49er, White17, and Dirt,…,,,

Can y’all please explain this situation in egg and chicken/coon hide and fur buyer form? I apologize, I’m completely ignorant on the market of money. All I know is what I was taught….pay offf debt, and don’t buy anything you can’t afford.

I’m 42, and I’ve never even hear of a no down payment loan, or interest only? I remember 2008, but never understood the all the talk as it never affected me. Now, I’m trying to dabble a bit in stocks.

Why would the government loan money to people they know can’t pay it? That is crazy, they can’t be that stupid!?

A fairly easy to understand explanation

Lets unpack your last statement, yes they can be that stupid.

The government doesn't and the FED doesn't care if a borrower can repay the loan, all they care about is the money is then created inflating the money supply. Do you know how fractional reserve lending works? Without new money creation the whole system implodes, new money is mostly created through borrowing. Or at least in the past, now we have quackery like QE and operation twist.

This all started before 2008, more like 1913 got the ball started and 1971 put the nail in the coffin. Fiat currency starts and slow and eventually snowballs until it becomes uncontrollable. IMHO this is all very predictable, not the timeframe it happens but the fact it will happen. Ok now you ask why does the government need new money created? Well under our current system it needs new money to survive. How can we run a welfare state without the ability to borrow! Now don't misconstrue my meaning of welfare, I'm not talking about the contemporary understanding. The welfare state starts at the military-industrial complex, corporate hand outs, government entitlement programs and ends somewhere south of never.

The craziness of 2008 is tame compared to what is happening today. Did you know it's reported that almost 20 percent of all large corporations are zombie corporations? That means they don't generate enough profit to service their yearly debt obligations and can only do so by more borrowing. There is a reason the FED started buying corporate junk bonds in 2020, it was unprecedented before that. Where does the FED get its money, yup, keystroke. A truly free market would let those companies die, that part of the way a market finds price discovery.

How about student loans, it doesn't take much common sense to realize that there is a large portion that will not be paid back. Why does the bank borrow the money? Because the government passed a law saying that debt can't be erased through bankruptcy. Basically debtor's prison. Why would the government pass that law? Well between lobbyists and needing to have currency created through debt it was a sure thing.

Money supply inflation will never stop until the system has an aortic confarction( I know it's not a real term, fun to say lol)

Deflation is the enemy of governments and fiat currency. It's a natural part of a free market.

That is a good little article and explains it well.

I can summerize it further in one sentence.

Greed,from top to bottom.
What a culture!

how about the price of plumbing parts , good lord the price of pvc is 15 dollars a stick for 1 1/2 schedule 40

wire is insane was at fleet and lowes today just nuts and that was if they even had what you needed Fleet and no pipe and Lowes had very few fittings

^ this is all being orchestrated....food shortages coming and other nice things are ahead...

"How about student loans, it doesn't take much common sense to realize that there is a large portion that will not be paid back. Why does the bank borrow the money? Because the government passed a law saying that debt can't be erased through bankruptcy. Basically debtor's prison. Why would the government pass that law? Well between lobbyists and needing to have currency created through debt it was a sure thing."

Our State once had a student loan program. It became a financial disaster. They quit doing it. Since they couldn't print money, what was their motivation? Student loans would never be made, without crazy high interest rates to compensate for the crazy high default rate and no collateral. If it was legal, to declare bankruptcy to get out of these loans, nobody would give them either.

There are ways to do these programs to limit risk, and incentivize attending classes. The U.S. government should talk to the VA about how to run a college tuition program. Unless the VA has screwed this up, back in the day they didn't just hand you a bunch of money to go to school. You got monthly checks, based on getting I believe a yellow card signed by all your professors that you were attending classes, every month. No yellow cards, no money.

Depends on how much more our economy goes down the toilet.

The government doesn't have any business in student financial aid. As long as it is involved, funding secondary education will be a disaster.

It's no surprise that college tuition has dramatically outpaced everyday inflation.

Thanks for responses fellas. That was a good easy to follow article Dirt, had no idea all the different moving parts and different types of loans.

Steven, what you wrote makes perfect sense to me. I had to look up Fractional Reserve Spending and watched some youtube videos on it and it helps explain the situation a little clearer.

Embarrassing that I am my age and am pretty ignorant on how fiat money, lending, loans/loan types, and stocks all really affect inflation and interest rates. I've got a lot to learn.

Chancey, I wouldn't worry too much about. hyperinflation, just high inflation. There is usually more involved than increasing the money supply by even 20% a year. We have had 50 some years of 1971 fiat currency and most years didn't have inflationary problems much less create hyperinflation.

"Hyperinflation
Main article: Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic
In the early post-war years, inflation was growing at an alarming rate, but the government simply printed more currency to pay debts. By 1923, the Republic claimed it could no longer afford the reparations payments required by the Versailles Treaty, and the government defaulted on some payments. In response, French and Belgian troops occupied the Ruhr region, Germany's most productive industrial region at the time, taking control of most mining and manufacturing companies in January 1923. Strikes were called, and passive resistance was encouraged. These strikes lasted eight months, further damaging both the economy and society.[citation needed]

The strike prevented some goods from being produced, but one industrialist, Hugo Stinnes, was able to create a vast empire out of bankrupt companies. Because the production costs in Germany were falling almost hourly, the prices for German products were unbeatable. Stinnes made sure that he was paid in dollars, which meant that by mid-1923, his industrial empire was worth more than the entire German economy. By the end of the year, over two hundred factories were working full-time to produce paper for the spiraling bank note production. Stinnes' empire collapsed when the government-sponsored inflation was stopped in November 1923.[39]

In 1919, one loaf of bread cost 1 mark; by 1923, the same loaf of bread cost 100 billion marks.[40]


One-million mark notes used as notepaper, October 1923
Since striking workers were paid benefits by the state, much additional currency was printed, fuelling a period of hyperinflation. The 1920s German inflation started when Germany had no goods to trade. The government printed money to deal with the crisis; this meant payments within Germany were made with worthless paper money, and helped formerly great industrialists to pay back their own loans. This also led to pay raises for workers and for businessmen who wanted to profit from it. Circulation of money rocketed, and soon banknotes were being overprinted to a thousand times their nominal value and every town produced its own promissory notes; many banks and industrial firms did the same.[citation needed]

The value of the Papiermark had declined from 4.2 marks per U.S. dollar in 1914 to one million per dollar by August 1923. This led to further criticism of the Republic. On 15 November 1923, a new currency, the Rentenmark, was introduced by Stresemann at the rate of one trillion (1,000,000,000,000) Papiermark for one Rentenmark, an action known as redenomination. At that time, one U.S. dollar was equal to 4.2 Rentenmark. Reparation payments were resumed, and the Ruhr was returned to Germany under the Locarno Treaties, which defined the borders between Germany, France, and Belgium.

Chancey: The "interest only" loans were loans where the borrower only paid the monthly interest. Nothing on the principal...therefore never reducing the original loan amount and building no equity in the property.

NINJA loans were another creation . No Income No Job or Assets. Some were called "Liars Loans" because all the data on the loan application was bogus but never checked by the lender. This is usually a felony,

Is it any wonder people defaulted on these things?


Not to be too picky...but I think the article Dirt posted is terrible ! This is a very complex subject and it would have been better explained by an English speaker.

The article get the mechanics of the loans and institutions correct but completely avoids the biggest part of the problem.

The true cause was politics. Democrat politics. Starting in 1977 with Jimmy Carter and the Community Reinvestment Act.( google to see the text).

When Clinton was elected he decided to use the CRA to buy votes from the minority community. With Janet Reno as Atty General they threatened lending institutions with extinction if they did NOT make the loans described above.
Eric Holder doubled down on this during the Obama administration.

Maybe you recall the names of the players and organizations involved. Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Franklin Raines, Mudd and others. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Countrywide Financial, Lehman Brothers.

Barney Frank was one of the congressional overseers of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. He also got his boyfriend a job at Fannie ( his fanny for sure).
Franklin Raines was a senior officer at Fannie but joined the Clinto administration for a while then returned to Fannie.

The bottom line is that the Dems were using Fannie to buy all the CDO's and MBS's from the investment banks. Fannie was lying to regulators about the risk they were actually holding, They were using taxpayer dollars to support the entire house of cards...........all in an attempt to buy votes from lower income people.

Bush: attempted to to shut this down by repeatedly trying to get Fannie to give a true accounting of their risk position. Barney Frank stopped anything like that because the Dems controlled Congress.

These are just some highlights that Dirt's article never even touches on.

Here's a couple of links that explain the details better than I can.




https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10...t6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10...52&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Countrywidee Financial

Every house I bought I had to have 20% down, had skin in the game. Maybe colleges should carry student loan debt, they might watch what they are doing a little closer.

glad we bought our house last year at 2.75 percent interest rate. I dont regret it and wont wait til september.. housing goes in cyces anyways. As we was leaving, 3 other potential buyers were walking in... we offered 10k over and by the time the negotations were over, the price was back closer to the orginial and what the house was valued at.

co-workers kept saying you either could get a nice house with no yard or a huge yard with a so-so house the way the market is... We was blessed to have alittle bit of both. And its a ranch to boot which we both really wanted but man oh man the frustration trying to see houses.

Now you are bringing up a mirror image of the subprime mess. Student loans are another liability with which the Dems have saddled the taxpayer. Another 1.6 trillion.

Student Loans

Chancey- There's a lot of people much older than you that are totally clueless of the financial house of cards that has been built. Most will keep on playing it until it collapses down all around them. Knowing how to practically live is probably more important to know about all of the technical financial wizardry. Its pretty hard not to live somewhat in the financial house of cards that's been invented, but knowing how keep your family fed, warm, and secure is probably more important. As Steven 49er said, we're all going to have to eat part of the ***t sandwich when it gets served up, the difference is some people will make it out alive from that situation, and some (many) won't...

Freddie and Fannie bailout

Does an


Did you forget about the 70s and late 80s? Do you realize they changed the way they calculate inflation after that? Do you know what the inflation rate today would be if if was still calculated using the same metrics? How about what would the inflation rates have been the last twenty years using the same metrics?

Hyperinflation is a very real possibility. Before I'm dead I expect the FED will have 30 trillion on its balance sheet, in fact, I expect it within this decade. Most likely I'm wrong and surely hope I am. But I don't think so.

There is a big difference between now and the 80s when Volker stunned the world by raising rates and putting the brakes on the economy. First off he had conviction and balls, secondly the world wasn't awash in debt like now.

We will see.

BTW Fannie and Freddie are big players in the mortgage markets again, there are still interest only loans being written, ARMs are still a possibility and judging by the people I see buying 350k plus homes NINJAs are that far off either.

No, Yes, maybe 20%, double probably. Still not hyperinflation.

"Hyperinflation refers to rapid and unrestrained price increases in an economy, typically at rates exceeding 50% each month over time."

If mortgage rates went to 10% half the houses with loans would try to sell because no way many of these families can 3x their interest unless banks started doing 40-50 year loans. House loans at 18%, such as in 1981, forget about it, game over.

Dirt, I know what the definition of hyperinflation is.

PC, let's forget about homeowners. If rates on government bonds were allowed to go to 5 or 6% it will all be over

There are many loan options available other than conventional that don’t require 20% down. I have owned several homes in not quite 20 years and have always put down as little as possible. I’ve always had loans with a fixed interest rate.

Not gonna happen by September.

Good point!

Thank you so much again Gentlemen. Trying to run through all this on the computer at the hotel.

Question.......?

As far as I know the Banks are not loaning out any money right now to people that can't pay for them. They have to all have credit checks and a job.....correct? I know I did.

In 2008, that did not matter they were loaning to anyone that applied and so we got the 2008 crash.

Today, instead of the Banks loaning out money for home loans, the FED government is giving free money away in the form of stimulus and also maybe free school loans....?

That amount of money is much much higher than what was loaned in 2008, so when the SHTF this time, the scenario will be similar, but much worse b/c it affects more people?

There is a tipping point where the gov't cant bail itself out anymore.

According to Google, the US still has by far the most gold reserves by a big margin compared to other countries.?
So, if this is a fact, then there is no way that the dollar will change as the worlds currency anytime soon……..is this logic reasonable?

Correct

Chancy, firstly, that's assuming the gold is still all there.

Secondly, the dollar as we know it isn't backed by gold. The government would have to come out with something new and revalue gold. If they were to do this it's a really good chance private ownership of gold could be outlawed like in the 30s. Just like my firearms come and get it

Thirdly the world would have to accept the new currency. That is the most difficult and important part. We haven't very responsible being the reserve of the world. While many look at our trade deficits as a bad thing that is how we export our inflation. Take from another country their natural resources and labor and give them a coupon in return. Then we print more coupons making the ones we traded them less valuable. Eventually they could say enough. If all those dollars floating around the world facilitating trade around the world should return to shore that is when the true hyper inflation will occur. Does it surprise anyone that China is buying US businesses and real estate?

I expect we will at least see a gold or commodity backed money used for international trade or heaven forbid, Bitcoin.

All this is IMHO of course and worth exactly what you paid for it . As pessimistic as I am I still have traditional investments yet lean a little more conservative hedging those investments.

Fed is sceduled to release a new digital currency next year....

What good is your gold if no one else will take it in trade? If it's outlawed, only fellow preppers will want it, and they probably have similar items to what you stockpiled. You'll need to barter with the general population, and they can't use your gold.

Same deal with guns, if you wait to use/hide them until they are illegal, what good are they? Your neighbor will turn you in for a Sam's Club certificate.

How do you have a bank run on a digital currency?

Well played. Ask google, not us. Don't be afraid to double check google. Watch for bias. The knowledge is there, not here. That's not a fact. That's my bias opinion.

History of US gold standard

The Last time Russia got antsy and invaded Afghanistan in 1980 gold went thru the roof,then dropped again.
Great for the economy in NE Ont. when gold prices are high.
Lots of gold mines here.Sometimes you can find gold in quartz rock laying on the ground.

Somebody will always take gold, silver, commodities in trade.






Well played? The US has roughly 300 million ounces of gold held by the federal reserve and at fort Knox. At today's valuation that's roughly 560 billion dollars. That is not enough to back 3 percent of the M2 money supply.

There is a reason central banks around the world have been aggressively buying gold and repatriating their gold held in foreign locations.

In the late 1800's early 1900's here the made marten was the unit of payment/currency for trade.
When its 40 below I would sooner have a pile of fur than a pile of gold.

Yea,,and sometimes,,someone wins the lottery.Hahahaaahahaaaa

i have quartz with gold in it too

Japan’s narrowing options on monetary easing
21 August 2021
Author: Toshitaka Sekine, Hitotsubashi University

More than eight years have passed since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) began its aggressive Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) program in April 2013. Despite subsequent efforts made by the Bank, such as the adoption of negative interest rates in January 2016 and yield curve control in September 2016, it has yet to achieve its 2 per cent inflation target — the most recent figures put consumer price index inflation small negative.

I think what back U.S. currency as the worlds standard is our military might. Our modern military isnt very mighty if we don't have the ability to build our own computer chips or other key components of satellite dependent technology. Not very mighty if key engine technology can't be manufactured. What if our infantry needs boots? Where will the leather be tanned at and the boots cut and sewn?

Heres a hunk I tossed in the drawer.

Dirt. Japan is in big trouble. Put a fork in them, they are done.

Is part of it because they're not having any kids...? They don't allow much, if any, immigration, and so if a nation only has a TFR of 1.4, they aren't going to be around much in the long haul unless things change...

Roger, Japan's national debt is over 2.5 times GDP. To put that in context if ours was the same a percent of GDP we'd be north of 70 trillion.

Almost half of that debt is held by the central bank of Japan. That is not sustainable.

Very old population and aging fast also. High debt and limited work force to grow the economy spells some economic issues very soon and some real cultural issues not too far away either.
China may have changed their child policy soon enough but they will be short of workers as well. The advantage for the large Asian nations they can with immigration change their demographics if they find ways to do immigration that works for their culture.
Bryce

[quote Japan's national debt is over 2.5 times GDP. To put that in context if ours was the same a percent of GDP we'd be north of 70 trillion.

Almost half of that debt is held by the central bank of Japan. That is not sustainable.[/quote]

Lots of harakiri then, but only if the leadership still believes in such responsibility. Probably not, too Westernized, no leaders take responsibility...

Once their economy and social structure collapses,China will be ready to move in and enslave them.

Dang, once more BOCO is correct!

As the world turns was the name of a soap opera.

Seems kinda funny that less than 100 years ago China and Russia were our allies in the fight to defeat Japan.

George Orwell was a prophet

Ive been saying itll come back to earth, but I dont see how you can put a date on it. im hoping it crashes so people can start affording materials again

Japan is what we are becoming. IMHO

The FED has to own close to 30% of the public owned debt of the U.S. government.

He sure was keenly in tune with human nature.

I don't know Jbird, not many at all disagreeing that they will fall.

T

Tons of "open house signs in my area. Back in April when I predicted this a house would go on the market and 5 people would bid against each other and it would sell in 3 days. Not so much anymore. End of Sept and closer to Christmas it will get really hairy .......

I was hoping you'd point out all those that said your prediction is crazy on this thread, that you pointed out in your new thread. That's all.

(the Mega Million numbers for this week would be nice tho ;))

Should have seen that big log coming!!

Ah, he's a good sport.