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$380 a Barrel for Oil ?????????????????

Posted By: Canvasback2

$380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 01:16 AM

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...mp;cvid=fbf88dee205d4c85a8ea632fbbb0ac48

Any truth to this?
Posted By: Canvasback2

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 01:18 AM

At $15.00 a Gallon, that will be $300.00 a week just to fill up the tank on the Truck !
Posted By: Marty

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 01:18 AM

you will own nothing and be happy
Posted By: Canvasback2

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 01:18 AM

$75.00 a Week to Mow the LAWN !! shocked
Posted By: Canvasback2

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 01:20 AM

Raccoon prices will be through the ROOF !! LOL
Posted By: mnsota

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 02:02 AM

Originally Posted by Canvasback2
Raccoon prices will be through the ROOF !! LOL


Ha Ha,..you remember those threads,..we're all rich!
Posted By: Mad Scientist

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 02:20 AM

Looks more like an ad for JP Morgan.
Posted By: NE Wildlife

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 02:32 AM

Yes, that is basically a add for J.P. Morgan. Bunch of crooks
Posted By: yotetrapper30

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 05:04 AM

Be curious to hear what white or any of the other financial gurus have to say.

$300 a barrel crude would bring the US to it's knees, I'd think.
Posted By: Boco

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 05:30 AM

Or $200 for a loaf of bread.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by yotetrapper30
Be curious to hear what white or any of the other financial gurus have to say.

$300 a barrel crude would bring the US to it's knees, I'd think.


Yup. I'm also waiting for jbyrd to post lol.

In the present times I can't see oil going that high, demand would be destroyed long before it got there. Now if they inflate the money supply another 40 or 59 percent like in the so called response to covid, I'd have to recalculate.

I think I could make a reasonable argument for 200 dollar oil in present terms
Posted By: Donnersurvivor

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 02:03 PM

Originally Posted by Steven 49er
Originally Posted by yotetrapper30
Be curious to hear what white or any of the other financial gurus have to say.

$300 a barrel crude would bring the US to it's knees, I'd think.


Yup. I'm also waiting for jbyrd to post lol.


I think I could make a reasonable argument for 200 dollar oil in present terms



200 would be brutal, do you foresee oil climbing? My brother and I were just talking about this, he thinks it's going way up this fall, I have no idea.
Posted By: WANNABE-TRAPPER

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 03:07 PM

Demand destruction won’t let prices stay that high. There is already demand destruction. I have had two employees quit to take jobs way way closer to home.
Posted By: Foxpaw

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 03:16 PM

There has to be a turning around point someplace. The Interest right now is Dec of '22 and the next would be June of '23. Ideally the hedgers would like to leave someone else holding the bag so that when it blows off it will be liquid enough for them to get turned around. So there will be hype to get the public money in for the turn around. Get the hype in, then have a hurricane or pipeline shutdown or another trigger and its up and away and here comes the speculator which have a poor winning record but provide plenty of volume for the turn around.

As I've said before. Stay out of the swamps, because there is quicksand in there !
Posted By: white17

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 04:57 PM

Is $380/bbl possible ? Sure it is but I would guess that the probability of such an event is way down in single digits.

We are already seeing demand destruction in oil markets and slowdowns in the housing industry. Layoffs of workers are beginning to happen.

If oil went that high I believe it would put an end to almost all economic activity world-wide.

If oil starts moving faster, so will the Fed. If the Fed has to choose between $380 oil and recession, it will choose recession in a heartbeat.

I believe we are already in a recession. First quarter real GDP was -1.6% and second quarter was -2.1%. That meets the classic definition of a recession....2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

OPEC has very little ability to increase oil production but Venezuela, Iran, and the US still have spare capacity.

I also believe that speculators will exit the market way before we reach that price level. The risk far outweighs the potential reward. It would be far too likely for government to step in and essentially nationalize the oil industry for "national security" reasons. No investor or speculator wants to be holding the bag at that point.

I am confused about how some see this as an ad for JP Morgan ????
Posted By: Foxpaw

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 08:13 PM

Originally Posted by white17
I am confused about how some see this as an ad for JP Morgan ????


I guess maybe when people associate the 4 horsemen of oil and Federal Reserve people just naturally come to conclusion of guilt by association or at least as not trust worthy. Just a guess.

Maybe the Titanic was sunk by the shooter over on the grassy knoll to start the Fed Reserve, lol.
Posted By: stinkypete

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/03/22 09:44 PM

Thank you White17. Very good explanation. IMO. We are all ready in a recession. Where we go from here is anyone’s guess. Price of oil etc... Things can change in a minute. Stay tuned.
Posted By: Steven 49er

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/04/22 01:22 AM

Originally Posted by Donnersurvivor


200 would be brutal, do you foresee oil climbing? My brother and I were just talking about this, he thinks it's going way up this fall, I have no idea.


I don't expect oil to climb other than typical market fluctuations.

In 2020 when oil went negative and presidents were signing stimulus plans I felt oil was going to $100 easy and unlike the oracle of Kentucky I put my money where mouth is so to speak. Part of the reason I felt oil was going to climb was that I was expecting the USD to lose value, although it did in the beginning and has come back strong for whatever reason(I know why). It's hard to say where oil would be if the dollar had went south and was trading under 90 on the dxy.

I am of the belief the FED will raise rates one more time and then pivot. If the FED pivots before it kills inflation, that is where I see the potential for 200-dollar oil.

I agree Ken, we are in the beginning phase of a full blown recession, my son asked me in April if I thought there would be one, my answer was too late, we are in it.
Posted By: Willy Firewood

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/04/22 02:19 AM

Did someone say oil?

Yep, I am still alive. I toughed thru the heart problems and escaped from the hospital. They planned no additional tests or procedures so not much point being there.
The cardiologist scheduled an appointment for August - no real time issue here. So I am looking for a new cardiologist.
Thanks for your prayers!

Back to oil.
Nobody wants to see $380 oil.
Nobody wanted to see oil top $200 during the Obammy administration. But it did.

About a year ago, some investors were buying in on oil contracts at $200 for 12/22. They may cash in?

Before $380, everything else will be on the rocks. There will be economic and societal breakdown.

There is still plenty of capacity in the oil shale region of Ohio. About 3 miles from my home a rig is drilling. The new site pad will support 8 wells. A second pad can be added for another 8 wells.

I also believe that speculators will exit the market way before we reach that price level. The risk far outweighs the potential reward. It would be far too likely for government to step in and essentially nationalize the oil industry for "national security" reasons. No investor or speculator wants to be holding the bag at that point.

As White says above at some point, the Feds would nationalize the petroleum industry. Wouldn’t that be a hoot! The devil would be in the oil patch for sure then!
Posted By: Marty

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/04/22 04:19 AM

The U.S. Oil & Gas Association took a hit at President Biden after he tweeted on Saturday that "companies running gas stations" should simply "bring down the price you are charging at the pump," telling him that he should "please make sure the WH intern who posted this tweet registers for Econ 101 for the fall semester."

laugh
Posted By: VaBeagler

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/04/22 05:27 AM

Hopefully the worm will turn with the midterms.
My wife, daughter, and mother in law went to our beach house in south Carolina last week. Wife was tickled about buying gas for 4.11. That's what's sad. We are being conditioned to think that 3.99 is a bargain. I won't be happy until it's 1.79 again.
Posted By: Foxpaw

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/04/22 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by white17


I also believe that speculators will exit the market way before we reach that price level. The risk far outweighs the potential reward. It would be far too likely for government to step in and essentially nationalize the oil industry for "national security" reasons. No investor or speculator wants to be holding the bag at that point.



I believe the consensus of most would be that people can and do lose money in markets. I also doubt they do so intentionally. After a good run in a market and it starts getting tired there will be a point of profit taking and/or moving to another month in which there will be a reversal in the present trend. That is the time in which commission houses (that is what they used to call them anyway) start putting out hype to attract new money. In an up market that would be a bull trap and the new interest will cause an up movement which is actually the first wave in a Elliot down cycle. If the commercials have a heavy interest and didn't get turned around then it may take a double top or even a third for a head and shoulders. A small guy with a couple contracts can easily get in and out without even making a new tick. Commercials with thousands of contracts can't just dump their contracts or they would fall under their own weight. Hunt brothers and their speculation had that problem. They owned a lot and couldn't sell without killing the price. They couldn't keep it because interest and storage was eating them up. They was in a difficult quandrum. Greed tends to blind the speculator. Too bad because the speculator does provide a necessary component for a free market.
Posted By: NonPCfed

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/04/22 02:27 PM

As others have said, either from a more pure economic or socioeconomic assessment, it would be doubtful if oil would reach $380 a barrel. One of the reasons includes, as others pointed out, would be the multi-scale social upheaval happening around the planet. If the USA wasn't actually in open rebellion/retaking of our government, there would be plenty of places that would be. Oil powers the world, especially in getting food commodities from one place to another. Counties that have sizable populations but don't have the ability to feed themselves would be the first candidates for such revolutions. Egypt and Pakistan come to mind fairly quick, but probably multiple others as well.

Given that this #$380 barrel" talk supposedly came out of some Sniffy and the minions (or the minions and Sniffy) discussions, a person has to wonder if its a start by the current "administration" to start paving the road to un**** themselves politically by throwing the more green progressives "under the bus" and receind some of Sniffy's earlier anti- U.S./North American oil decisions. Nothing goes into much of the MSM without a purpose...
Posted By: white17

Re: $380 a Barrel for Oil ????????????????? - 07/04/22 07:20 PM

Originally Posted by Foxpaw
Originally Posted by white17


I also believe that speculators will exit the market way before we reach that price level. The risk far outweighs the potential reward. It would be far too likely for government to step in and essentially nationalize the oil industry for "national security" reasons. No investor or speculator wants to be holding the bag at that point.



I believe the consensus of most would be that people can and do lose money in markets. I also doubt they do so intentionally. After a good run in a market and it starts getting tired there will be a point of profit taking and/or moving to another month in which there will be a reversal in the present trend. That is the time in which commission houses (that is what they used to call them anyway) start putting out hype to attract new money. In an up market that would be a bull trap and the new interest will cause an up movement which is actually the first wave in a Elliot down cycle. If the commercials have a heavy interest and didn't get turned around then it may take a double top or even a third for a head and shoulders. A small guy with a couple contracts can easily get in and out without even making a new tick. Commercials with thousands of contracts can't just dump their contracts or they would fall under their own weight. Hunt brothers and their speculation had that problem. They owned a lot and couldn't sell without killing the price. They couldn't keep it because interest and storage was eating them up. They was in a difficult quandrum. Greed tends to blind the speculator. Too bad because the speculator does provide a necessary component for a free market.


There would also be a tremendous temptation to get short at that point. Pretty dangerous either way at that point.

But I suspect markets would not trade if the feds nationalized the industry. I am actually surprised that Biden hasn't tried to do just that, by using the War Production Act. That would really cause some fireworks and dislocations !
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