My housing prediction

I posted a comment a couple months or so back that if someone was going to buy a house to wait until august but better in September. My critics laughed at me and said I was crazy The big fall has begun !

https://apple.news/A2PSd93gFTLq0ZY4CfAMV_w

My post was before the mortgage rate hikes so don’t post that’s how I knew! Anything good has and will be destroyed by the White House policies

So is it happening sooner than you predicted?

Here's one for the pet peeve thread.

The FED has been talking about raising rates for quite some time. Everyone following the financial system knew it was going to happen. Anyone who understands inflation knows what the remedy is and that rates were going up.

Guess what? They are going higher.

If you are so smart tell us when it's going to bottom, how high rates are going to go and when the FED will pivot

How much money did you risk shorting the housing market?

Can you post your predictions on this years World Series? I’d like to place my bets now.

Does the SEC play in the world series?

Man you're awesome.

So how low will building materials go and when will the Lowes point be? I need to build a building .

JBYRD THE MAGNIFICENT...sorry I can't rotate

Used vehicle prices?

You could probably get a job offering advice.

If a house was selling for say 20-30% over appraised value due to low interest rates, available monies and low UE I would not be the one to buy one for 25% less if we have higher rates, higher UE, recession looming etc. I would think that next September would be a better time to research selling or buying a home, not this September.

Bryce

Lets see.Make a BUNCH of different predictions.Wait and see what actualy happens.THEN,,go back and filter out the prediction that fits your narrative.Haaahaaa,,,yea,,your a real Nostrodomass

Who's gonna win the next Kentucky Derby ?

BTW- that is NOT the pony ride ring you see at carnivals

You are your own best cheerleader, that was never a question in my mind.

Did you read this?
The areas you are talking about are the most expensive areas of the country. 50-100k are only a couple% in those areas. And rates are higher so it’s only a couple percentage change. Not exactly buying bitcoin at $1.40

Look up Dunning Kruger effect, he fits the definition perfectly

The Great Swamy

"Dunning-Kruger effect, in psychology, a cognitive bias whereby people with limited knowledge or competence in a given intellectual or social domain greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence in that domain relative to objective criteria or to the performance of their peers or of people in general."

Keith

I am selling this place. Sits on the Arkansas River. Less than 100 yards to world class trout fishing. White water rafting. Monarch Ski resort less than an hour away, Royal Gorge a half hour away, Great Sand Dunes National Park a little over an hour away. San Isabel National forest minutes away and tens of thousands of acres of BLM in the area. Big Horn sheep, Elk, Deer, Lion and Bear hunting. General store with gas 1/4 mile away. VERY small community in rural Colorado half way between the cities of Canon city and Salida. Water is from a natural Spring I have a title for. Cotopaxi CO.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/231-County-Road-51-Cotopaxi-CO-81223/246138912_zpid/

The Kentucky Oracle spouts off again.

X2

Yes I did . That's why my prediction was September for the rest of the country !!!

Patience grasshopper....

The trickle down effect will hit lumber and materials by November. Mark it down !!! Keep doubting .... Just like the bitcoin king that goes by 49.... Hows that looking to date 49 er. Even using percentage it's a LOOOONG way from 100,000 LOl LOL LOL LOL

Lumber is already down by about 40%. Likely to continue dropping IMO. I would be surprised however, to see it below 550 a thousand but it's possible if we get into a significant recession

No this prediction was a no brainer. Just look back in history. The big housing market crash was an indirect result of 4 buck a gal gas. This time we have High gas ,high groceries, high EVERYTHING. Average worker that is the backbone of this nation just can't keep paying . I'm amazed at the people and lot on here say "high interest rates" REALLY 5 % is high? How old are you. It was 8 % in 96 when I bought the house I'm in now. In the early 80"s it was 18 % !!!! Yes 5 is higher than 3 but this nation grew with 7- 10 % interest..

See ! LOL

Last time gas hit 4 bucks nobody was working. Banks had been forced to loan money to people they knew were high risk . They were unable to pay. Today there are more jobs than people to fill them

no mortgage and no worries here!

HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Most of us are in agreement that a brain was not involved.

Jbyrd if you think gas prices caused the housing market crash in 08 you better stay out of the shallow end and go to the kiddie pool. You honestly think the housing crash 8n 08 was an 8ndirect result of higher gas prices?

Lol.

All the little byrdies go tweet tweet tweet....listen to the robyn go cheep cheep cheep.

everything may crash.

No doubt

I said indirectly. Why couldn’t people pay their mortgages? Fuel prices triggered high cost of living plus a slow down in the housing market Prices dropped as a surplus of houses rose. Yes people lost there jobs adding to the perfect storm The job lost was tied to the jump in fuel cost
Anyone notice the story last week about massive lay offs from companies that stocks have dropped? Keep making fun of my comments just revisit them in about 3-4 months ..,

O Great and Powerful OZ
Tell us mere mortals what we must do. Lol Lol Lol

I was wondering whatever happened to Cliff Calvin seems he is alive and living in Kentucky

I’ll agree that there’s no shortage of jobs at the moment. And I’m not dipping into the pool of what’s going on here. But I would like to know where the work force is now. No one wants to work for less than $20/hour and they’re not doing a $20/hour job. Heck, I’ve got a kid that’s working for my buddy that wants $20/hour now. And he’s just cleaning pools. I can’t understand what’s happened to the “working man”. Regardless, carry on fellas. I’ve enjoyed peeking in here from time to time.

They get like that jbird cause it hurts their egos to admit you were right and they were wrong.lol.

Same thing a few years ago when I pointed out trappers would be happy to see 4$ rats.

You two geniuses must have been separated at birth, lol

2/3 of triplets.
You forgot coonman220

Wet dog ,like I said in the post back awhile. IF you want to buy a house wait until September . Simple enough ....enough

Wow , just wow.

If you'll recall, the people that couldn't afford their mortgages leading to the 08 crash couldn't afford the mortgages the day they signed the papers to take out the loans. The government forced the banks to make the subprime loans or face investigation. The banks instead of telling the government that they were crazy and wouldnt issue loans they knew the people taking them out couldn't afford came up with the mortgage backed security which jus5 created the death spiral.

Time will tell

Be best if we all quite responding to anything he posts.
Should be quite obvious he just does it to get his rise on.
Don't matter neg/pos. He just loves to see his name on this site.

Don't give him the time. Hopefully he'll just fade away?

We are heading into a depression. That's my assessment

Of course, the housing market is in trouble, if you predicted that last September, you were only about 15 16 months late.

If you think that high gas prices for a period in 08 had even an indirect result of the 08 housing crash you are completely clueless.

Remind us again how much you have put down shorting the housing market?

Providence hit the nail on the head, if I was nearing retirement I'd be nervous.

Here is a prediction, Social Security is supposed to be underfunded in 2034 or 35 depending on who you believe, and Medicare in 2028. My prediction is the economic downturn that is coming will speed those up. Medicare by 2 years SS by 3 to 5. Here is another prediction, we are already in the beginning of a recession. Boy, stuck my neck out on that one lol.



I agree with Bryce somewhat, the time to buy a house won't be this September if a person can wait. It will take 12 to 18 months for the low to settle in.

I'm doing work for a real estate guy/ investor right now.....he says 2-3 years is going to be right time to jump in

Assuming Black Rock and other similar groups have left any decently priced homes available for us normies to buy.

Buy the house that you grew up in from your mom (after taking her to church, the grocery store, and most of her doctor visits for 15 years).
It's a new day now.
Everyone faces a different situation.
Not everyone can do what I did.
I should get back to church though.

This thread is somewhat a result of Coonman's departure. Coonman left a void that Jbyrd is quickly filling.

Why are y'all debating the housing market, or anything financial, with a guy whose wife makes their house payment?

At least Coonman was interesting.

Come on 49er, he thrives on you responding.
No matter what, he will not go to sleep thinking he's wrong.

A miserable life those that are family must endure?

I don't mind him ,he says what most folks have been saying for over a year ! Rave on .No problem here

I guess the development companies and general house contractors must be getting in on the last run before the death spiral here in Soo Foo metro because the boys have been building like crazy this year (and the rest of the last few years). Then again, Soo Foo area got a good number of covid & big blue state reg refugees during Fauci's reign and many of those people are buying new houses in cash after dumping theirs in an even pricier area.

The development company opened up "Phase II" up the hill behind us in 2015 with 80 blanks. I sort of laughed at that number for the area but I suspect its now about 65-70% of those built, not a single one under $400k, most north of there a ways. Now they're opening another 35-40 blanks kitty corner to the southwest on more of the farmland. Maybe its all just musical chairs, who gets holding the over priced bag when the music stops...

Haven’t had a house payment for 6 years so like others your wrong ! Lol
I love how the hatred surfaces from those who can’t fathom anyone besides them can be right about something lol

Housing market is bad here:

https://www.realtor.com/realestatea...lton_MT_59840_M82706-25877?ex=2944590920

Is demonatarization a term that I have invented or is it actually a thing?

You are the best!
Please share tomorrow night's lottery numbers. Thanks in advance.

This post I made was real if anybody is interested. I am talking to real estate agents but havn't decided on one. Anybody interested we could just hire an attorney cheaper if you prefer to protect both of us.



Took this picture out the kitchen window a couple years ago. Have had bears and a lion both in the yard too. Those hills in the background are thousands of acres of BLM and accessible.



this picture is off the front porch

Looks nice! This must be the place you moved your mom from, Danny?

Trapdog her and Dad moved from there to town years ago. Signed it over to me and my sister. I have it rented right now. My dad died in OCT and I bought the house across the street from me. Moved my mom in there from Canon City. She is in a wheel chair and wants her own place. So she needs care and I dont want to put her in a nursing home.

Looks like a pretty nice place. Hope you get it sold soon!

This is where I moved her. That sidewalk from the ramp goes to the driveway. She has a van with a ramp that comes down so she can drive her electric chair into it. She doesn't drive in cities much but she is mobile. Had to do a lot of stuff to get it where she had some independence and I think i am about done house modifying.

I think Dodd/Frank had the significant impact on the 08? Housing and market crash. More so than fuel as a starter.

Osky

The economy was going south before the fuel got so high. I was drawing on savings and working. Haul a load then sit 2-3 days and repeat. High fuel certainly hurts us all, especially the corresponding inflation. The meteoric rise in the housing market may be over for awhile but banks are not in trouble. The dollar may yet crash but I dont think its imminent. The good thing about inflation is a 2000 dollar house payment may be a big concern today but in ten years it will be a lot easier and the value of your property with the lien has also increased. Make an extra few hundred a month payments and you can pay a 30 year note in that ten year time frame.

It looks like a nice property, Danny. What are the property taxes like? Just rough numbers please.

Will be about 800 next year I think.

Property tax there is pretty cheap. Colorado is taxing the heck out of marijuana. Marijuana sales have helped fuel the property value increase. Marijuana business's have to "launder" their money even though its legal under state law. They can not just deposit it in a bank. Have no fear though the feds are happy to collect income tax from them. Growers and retailers both are buying real estate. Then there are various ways to get a return that they can bank. I do not think that if congress legalizes weed that will change the value of real estate in the state. Colorado has become a very popular place for people to relocate too.

This is from 2019. This years receipt is in my safety deposit box.



tax increase was so high is because its now a rental property. If someone buys it to live in it will go down a bit.

Thank you, Danny.

Reading comprehensive skills are important.
So wrong/so often.

Danny actually it wasn't . Fuel jumped in 2005 after Katrina hit in August. That is the catalyst that started the collapse of the economy which produced the housing collapse in 2008. It took 3 years of high gas , fuel taxes added to deliveries, and massive layoffs. That is what caused people losing their houses. Yes some loans wouldn't be made by today criteria . But maybe so. Most folks only think of the housing issue because it was the headlines then.

Yeah, we put a place up for sale in the Flathead last week and got two full priced offers the first day. We asked that everyone submit their best offers on July 8. Not a one from people from Montana though. They were for more money than I'd ever imagined. Place has gone nuts and I worry about some of the people moving in. It's a little scary.

Fuel price was the catalyst? First you said it was indirect.

It was neither.

This post has reached the "skip because its a waste of time" threshold.

30_60 bucks a year Byrd, not 40_60

You see, you screw up VERY OFTEN!

and can you find where I called you p.o.s. and post it please?
I'm baffled

Only 30?

I typically only hunt 11 days a year and it's that many albeit several are the same ones on different days. If I bowhunted it would be a lot more.

The amount of deer her is almost astonishing.

I could really see a lot of I didn't have to work

It usually does when bucks and bull crap enters

Guess I read/wrote that as negative/positive?

Now back to the 40_60 quote, oops again.

Its not your predictions that make people laugh and call you crazy for.

Think about it.

Are you so dense that you do not realize that negative/positive is shortened to neg/pos all the time?? Go find a job that you can handle and quit sitting around finding ways to irritate others. Just a thought. Evidently you are fully able to sit and type, thousands of job opportunities for someone with your skill set.

jbyrd could work at his own pace. But I think he has too much fun on tman to work for such low potential per hour payout...

https://clark.com/employment-military/work-from-home-amazon-mechanical-turk-review/

I predict housing will continue to be a smart investment in lifetimes.

I predict global warming will increase at dark:30 tonight.

Housing is a horrible investment unless they're rentals or you can use them as tax asvantages for running a home business out of. Unless you're not in the house long enough for maintenance, interest payments, inflation to catch up to you, you're not making money on a house.

Land however doesn't have maintenance cost, just property costs.

Well I guess I must have misunderstood . Since 99.9% of your comments on anything I post never has anything to do with the subject . I'll fix my post on this right now . Bucks good luck keeping up your life time averages... Ther all my NEG post about you that I could delete I did.

Your turn Bucks . But wait you wouldn't have anything to post if not criticizing me. NONE of your comments have been about the housing market. Just trying to bash me.
Let you in on a little secret it's not working . Doesn't bother me at all . LOL LOL LOL

I agree.

The trick to housing is buying right, I've made money on every house I've owned except for one. If you think a house is a bad investment can't imagine what some of you think of trucks.

For most people they arent buying right to make it an investment. The traditional 30 year mortgage(at 3%) is going to cost you over half the intitial loan cost in interest payments. So your 300k house is really a 455k house, not counting maintenance and improvements and assuming paying the minimum every month.


Current market notwithstanding, anything on wheels always goes down in value. So for it to be an investment, it needs to do something to make you money to be an investment.