Stock market question?

The market has been relatively flat the last 3 months. I'm trying to time the market. I know, impossible. Any ideas from the more knowledgeable investors in what are keeping indexes flat and a prediction as to when indexes will begin a trend upward?

no one knows. my guess is its correction time and a lot of volatility. Most stocks are heavily overvalued currently.

Dirt, I'm not a fiduciary but I have been in the markets for almost 50 years. No one knows what will happen when or why of markets ups and downs. The one advice I can give you is getting in as soon as you can. Markets are down now and is as good of time to jump in today. Staying out of the markets at any time is not your friend.

The markets have been bad this week particular as of late. You buy today the markets will go up and stay in the markets and don't let down times discourage you.

Follow Nancy Pelosis trades. She seems to "time" buying and selling just right.

We personally do not own more than 15% of our securities as stocks. We own mostly mutural funds. As to timing the market, I never did much of that nor did I feel I was very good at it. We set up an interest account in the earlly 80s and roughly quarterly we invested in stocks or funds. We did that until 2013 when I retired for the last time. I think the market, (business) would like to move ahead but there is a lot of national and international uncertainty right now and we don't know if or when that lessens. The USA is a 70 plus service related economy and consumer confidence has been falling and quite sharply for the short term. We moved our bi annual meeting with our main fund manager up from late April to next week to furthr discuss outlook and options. We turned over about 50% of our securities to their managed fund managers and accounts 4 years ago. To date their returns have been above the market average and enough to cover their managed cost fees and more.

Bryce

Regulatory issues are causing a drag right now. If the tariff war continues things wont pick up for a while. If Trump wins it, things might break out.

I would expect more volatility for the near future. At least, until the market figures out the effects of the tariffs. Nobody can time the market and it really, doesn't make sense to try to time the market if you are going to invest in an index fund. At any given time, a stock in the index could be at an all-time high or an all-time low regardless of how the broader market is performing. If you are really nervous about the market declining after you invest your money, maybe plan to invest once a month over the next several months instead of dumping it all in now.

Markets don’t like uncertainty,,,,,

Trumpster came out guns blazing with tariffs,,,creating a lot of uncertainty

If the uncertainty continues till the midterms??? People will lose elections

My prediction is that the uncertainty lasts at least 6 months,,,, but less than a 1 1/2 years

My opinion only

This is not a long term investment. Hence, why I'm trying to time the market. The person I'm investing for is 84 years old and needs to earn so much a year to cover assisted living care. IMHO her portfolio is too heavy towards fixed investments now, which I think will steadily drop if they keep lowering interest rates. I'm trying to earn a little more by investing in the market?

Wanted to add

European markets have been down for awhile, but have turned hot,,,,,especially European defense(Ukraine peace deal/increase defense spending)

When one market is flat/down another is making up the difference

pullback is healthy

[/quote]

This is not a long term investment. Hence, why I'm trying to time the market. The person I'm investing for is 84 years old and needs to earn so much a year to cover assisted living care. IMHO her portfolio is too heavy towards fixed investments now, which I think will steadily drop if they keep lowering interest rates. I'm trying to earn a little more by investing in the market?[/quote]

Reads like the person should look into the yield max etfs

If they’re looking for a monthly dividend to cover expenses,,,,,,short term

Not financial advice

The safer ones seem to be like bond funds? ^^^^^^^^^^^

Dirt: What % must the person's investments earn in order to cover the annual expenses ? Given the principal available.......is that even probable ?

Fixed income investments.....usually bond funds........SHOULD appreciate slightly if the Fed reduces rates. Remember.......bond prices move inversely to bond yields.

If you are just looking for short term investments that are safe.....I would consider simple US Treasuries . You can easily manage those online through Treasury Direct dot com.

With a bond fund..........one of the issues is management fees......treasury direct costs nothing.
Also with bond funds.......those bonds never mature so you have "duration risk"................... you can avoid that with treasury direct because you are buying actual bills, notes or bonds that actually do mature.

The convenience of a bond fund may be attractive because you can access all your funds within a day or so if you need them right away. With Treasury direct you may have to wait until your maturity date OR...have those investments transferred to a brokerage account and sold there.

There is also the possibility of a money market account. Very liquid and fairly competitive interest rates......that will fall if the fed cuts rates.

If the money is already in a brokerage account there is also the possibility of " brokered CD's" or purchasing treasuries in that account. The downside there is that there will be costs associated with those transactions.......but they can be done with a click or two.

X 10 on what spjones stated things are so uncertain now business sector and market managers dont know what to do given this administration, safe bet is what White stated.

I live a wonderful life in retirement for one major reason. I invested in low fee index funds throughout my working life. It's that simple. I've never talked to an advisor. I did it all through Fidelity and Vanguard. Now, at 61 years old, I do what I want. I tell young people all the time... start early and do it your whole working life. It's not hard. It just takes discipline.

Buy Nividia.

Serious bad time to try timing the market.

Sorry for the longer horizon post. Did not know it was that short term. What we are doing for the short term say 1-3-4 years is taking out what we feel we will want or need from investments and putting in as high yielding fixed investments that are acccessible w/o pelnalty and then leaving the rest of the securities in our longer term planning horizon. When funds are needed short term in my my mind volitility is not what I care to deal with.

Bryce

Dirt Only thing I can or will add is if you are looking at brokered CD. LPL financial only charges 5 dollar fee regardless of amount /time/ or interest rates. I checked today they have several 4.25-4.5 for 6-18 months. That's no loss risk.

I suggest you purchase a S&P500 no-load stock index fund and stagger your purchases over a six-month time period. This is called dollar cost averaging.

Timing the market is nearly impossible.

This info is not intended to replace advice provided by your financial advisor.

What does assisted living cost a month/year if you don’t mind me asking?

X10 on White17 description. Lots of variables. As far as the market being flat?? IMO. Not so much!! But again you have to decide what you want and your risk level.

I am a Nathan, Buffet

Nathan Rothschild never bought the top or the bottom. Always sold early.


Buffet. Value purchase of stocks.

I was always told. Buy what you know. Understand what you are buying and why!!!!!

It is the only way the little guy can get ahead in the market!!! I am a little guy!!!!!

The talk of tariffs since the election isnt helping. Interest rates moving down , and I think with all the layoffs on the horizon I think a lot of action will be happening in 401k accounts is a newly creeping concern…toss in stagnant stubborn interest rates just for fun,meh.

Osky

It is volatility. Use it to your advantage!!!! If you mange your own accounts!!!!!! We welcome volatility!!!!

If we knew the amount dirts friend requires?

We could reverse engineer different options/scenarios

Would be kinda fun

The market doesn't like unknowns. I think it's holding tight to figure out which direction the country is heading in during the transition between the Biden and Trump administrations.

Lots of unemployment on the way and more issues overseas in the Baltics, not helping.

Assisted living $4000.00 to $7500.00 on the low end. My advice. Live in your own home/ apartment as long as you can. Find as much help as you can to help you age in your own dwelling

Financial advisers with be one of the first casualtys of AI

To generate $7,500 per month ($90,000 per year) from bond funds, you’d need to consider the fund’s yield (the annual income it generates as a percentage of its value) and the total investment required. Bond funds typically distribute income through interest payments, and the amount you receive depends on the yield and the size of your investment. Let’s break this down with some examples, assuming you’re relying solely on the fund’s yield for income (not selling shares).

---

### Key Formula
Annual income = Investment amount × Yield
Monthly income = Annual income ÷ 12
To get $7,500/month: Investment × Yield = $90,000/year

---

### Example 1: High-Yield Bond Fund (6% Yield)
- **Yield**: 6% annually (common for riskier high-yield or "junk" bond funds).
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.06 = $1,500,000
- **How It Works**:
If you invest $1.5 million in a bond fund yielding 6%, it generates $90,000 per year ($1,500,000 × 0.06). Divide that by 12, and you get $7,500 per month.
- **Risk**: Higher yields come with higher risk—think corporate bonds from less stable companies that might default.

---

### Example 2: Intermediate-Term Treasury Bond Fund (3% Yield)
- **Yield**: 3% annually (typical for safer U.S. Treasury or investment-grade bond funds in a moderate interest rate environment).
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.03 = $3,000,000
- **How It Works**:
A $3 million investment at 3% yields $90,000 annually ($3,000,000 × 0.03), or $7,500 monthly.
- **Risk**: Lower risk since Treasuries are backed by the U.S. government, but you need more capital due to the lower yield.

---

### Example 3: Municipal Bond Fund (4% Yield, Tax-Free)
- **Yield**: 4% annually (common for municipal bond funds; varies by state and tax status).
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.04 = $2,250,000
- **How It Works**:
Investing $2.25 million at 4% generates $90,000 per year ($2,250,000 × 0.04), equaling $7,500 monthly. Plus, if it’s tax-free (e.g., for federal or state taxes), you keep more net income compared to taxable funds.
- **Risk**: Moderate—municipal bonds are generally safe but depend on the financial health of the issuing local government.

---

### Factors to Consider
1. **Yield Variability**: Bond yields fluctuate with interest rates, credit risk, and fund performance. The examples assume a steady yield, but in reality, it could change.
2. **Inflation**: $7,500/month might lose purchasing power over time unless the fund’s yield adjusts upward.
3. **Fees**: Bond funds charge expense ratios (e.g., 0.2%–1%), reducing your net income slightly.
4. **Capital Preservation**: These examples assume you don’t touch the principal. If you sell shares, the math changes, and your investment shrinks over time.

---

### Practical Scenario
Suppose you have $2 million to invest:
- A balanced bond fund yielding 4.5% generates $90,000/year ($2,000,000 × 0.045), hitting your $7,500/month goal exactly.
- If rates rise and the yield bumps to 5%, that same $2 million generates $100,000/year ($8,333/month), exceeding your target.

To pick a specific fund, you’d look at options like Vanguard’s High-Yield Corporate Fund (VWEHX, ~5-6% yield historically), iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB, ~3-4% tax-free), or SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (ITE, ~2-3%). Check current yields, as they shift with market conditions (e.g., on February 28, 2025, rates might differ from historical norms).

Does this clarify how bond funds could work for your goal? Let me know if you want to tweak the numbers or explore


To generate $7,500 per month ($90,000 per year) from equities, you’d rely primarily on dividends, capital gains, or a combination of both. Equities (stocks or stock funds) differ from bond funds because they offer growth potential but come with higher volatility and less predictable income. I’ll assume you’re asking about a sustainable approach—focusing on dividend income rather than selling shares (which depletes your principal). Here’s how it works, with examples.

---

### Key Formula
Annual income = Investment amount × Dividend yield
Monthly income = Annual income ÷ 12
To get $7,500/month: Investment × Yield = $90,000/year

---

### How Equities Generate Income
1. **Dividends**: Many stocks pay quarterly or monthly dividends, providing regular cash flow.
2. **Capital Gains**: Selling stocks at a profit can supplement income, but this isn’t sustainable long-term without eroding your investment.
3. **Growth + Reinvestment**: Over time, stock price growth can increase your portfolio’s value, allowing higher income later, though this isn’t immediate.

For simplicity, let’s focus on dividend income first, as it’s the most direct way to hit $7,500/month without selling.

---

### Example 1: High-Dividend Stock Fund (5% Yield)
- **Yield**: 5% annually (typical for high-dividend ETFs or REITs—real estate investment trusts).
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.05 = $1,800,000
- **How It Works**:
Invest $1.8 million in a fund like the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM), which might yield ~3-5% depending on market conditions. At 5%, it generates $90,000/year ($1,800,000 × 0.05), or $7,500/month.
- **Risk**: Higher yields often mean higher risk—think energy stocks or REITs that could cut dividends if earnings falter.

---

### Example 2: Blue-Chip Dividend Stocks (3% Yield)
- **Yield**: 3% annually (common for stable companies like Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, or the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF, SDY).
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.03 = $3,000,000
- **How It Works**:
A $3 million portfolio yielding 3% produces $90,000/year ($3,000,000 × 0.03), equaling $7,500/month. These stocks (e.g., Procter & Gamble, yielding ~2.5-3%) offer reliability and modest growth.
- **Risk**: Lower risk than high-yield options, but dividends aren’t guaranteed, and stock prices can dip.

---

### Example 3: Dividend Growth Strategy (2% Initial Yield + Growth)
- **Yield**: 2% initially (e.g., S&P 500 average via SPY ETF), growing over time as companies raise dividends.
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.02 = $4,500,000
- **How It Works**:
Invest $4.5 million for $90,000/year initially ($4,500,000 × 0.02). Stocks like Microsoft or Apple (yielding ~1-2%) often increase dividends annually (e.g., 5-10% growth). After 5-10 years, the yield on your original investment could rise to 3-4%, boosting income without adding capital.
- **Risk**: Lower starting income; relies on long-term holding and company performance.

---

### Combining Dividends and Gains
If dividends alone don’t suffice, you could sell shares strategically:
- **Scenario**: $2 million in an S&P 500 ETF (SPY, ~1.5% yield).
- Dividends: $2,000,000 × 0.015 = $30,000/year ($2,500/month).
- Gap: $7,500 - $2,500 = $5,000/month ($60,000/year).
- Sell 3% of the portfolio annually: $2,000,000 × 0.03 = $60,000, covering the gap.
- **Catch**: Selling reduces your principal, but if the portfolio grows 7% yearly (S&P average), it might offset withdrawals (akin to the 4% safe withdrawal rule).

---

### Practical Examples
1. **Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)**: ~2-3% yield. $3 million generates $60,000-$90,000/year ($5,000-$7,500/month). Add slight growth or sales to bridge any gap.
2. **Individual Stocks**: Mix Coca-Cola (3%), Verizon (6%), and ExxonMobil (4%) for a blended 4% yield. $2.25 million yields $90,000/year ($7,500/month).
3. **REITs**: Realty Income (O), a monthly dividend payer, yields ~5%. $1.8 million gets you $90,000/year.

---

### Factors to Consider
- **Volatility**: Stock prices fluctuate; a market crash could cut your portfolio’s value, though dividends often persist.
- **Dividend Cuts**: Riskier stocks might slash payouts in tough times.
- **Taxes**: Dividends face higher taxes than bond interest in some cases (e.g., qualified dividends at 15-20% vs. municipal bonds at 0%).
- **Growth Potential**: Unlike bonds, equities can appreciate, increasing future income.

On February 28, 2025, yields might differ—check current rates for funds like VYM or stocks like Verizon. With $2 million, a 4.5% yield (achievable with a dividend-focused portfolio) hits $7,500/month exactly. Want me to refine this further or pick a specific strategy?

To generate $7,500 per month ($90,000 per year) from dividend-paying equities, you need to invest in stocks or funds with a dividend yield that, when multiplied by your investment amount, equals your target income. The formula is:

**Annual Income = Investment Amount × Dividend Yield**
**Required Investment = $90,000 ÷ Dividend Yield**

I’ll provide examples of dividend-paying equities—individual stocks and ETFs—based on realistic yields as of February 28, 2025, assuming yields reflect current market conditions (though exact yields fluctuate). These examples focus on generating $7,500/month from dividends alone, without selling shares.

---

### Example 1: Realty Income (O) – 5% Yield
- **Type**: REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust)
- **Dividend Yield**: ~5% (monthly payer, known as "The Monthly Dividend Company")
- **Dividend Details**: Pays $0.2635/share monthly (~$3.16/year) at a stock price of ~$63.
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.05 = **$1,800,000**
- **Shares Needed**: $1,800,000 ÷ $63 ≈ 28,571 shares
- **How It Works**:
28,571 shares × $3.16/year = ~$90,264 annually, or $7,522/month.
- **Pros**: Reliable monthly dividends from a REIT with over 600 consecutive monthly payouts.
- **Cons**: Sensitive to interest rate changes; real estate sector risk.

---

### Example 2: Verizon Communications (VZ) – 6% Yield
- **Type**: Individual Stock (Telecom)
- **Dividend Yield**: ~6% (quarterly payer)
- **Dividend Details**: Pays ~$2.71/share annually at a stock price of ~$45.
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.06 = **$1,500,000**
- **Shares Needed**: $1,500,000 ÷ $45 ≈ 33,333 shares
- **How It Works**:
33,333 shares × $2.71/year = ~$90,331 annually, or $7,527/month (paid quarterly, so ~$22,582 every 3 months).
- **Pros**: Stable blue-chip stock with a high yield and consistent dividend history.
- **Cons**: Quarterly payments require budgeting; telecom growth is slow.

---

### Example 3: Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) – 3% Yield
- **Type**: ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)
- **Dividend Yield**: ~3% (quarterly payer)
- **Dividend Details**: Pays ~$3.84/share annually at a price of ~$128.
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.03 = **$3,000,000**
- **Shares Needed**: $3,000,000 ÷ $128 ≈ 23,437 shares
- **How It Works**:
23,437 shares × $3.84/year = ~$89,998 annually, or $7,500/month (paid quarterly, so ~$22,500 every 3 months).
- **Pros**: Diversified across 500+ high-dividend U.S. stocks; low expense ratio (0.06%).
- **Cons**: Lower yield requires more capital; quarterly payouts.

---

### Example 4: Main Street Capital (MAIN) – 6.5% Yield
- **Type**: BDC (Business Development Company)
- **Dividend Yield**: ~6.5% (monthly payer, often with supplemental dividends)
- **Dividend Details**: Pays $0.245/share monthly (~$2.94/year base, plus extras) at ~$45/share.
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.065 = **$1,384,615**
- **Shares Needed**: $1,384,615 ÷ $45 ≈ 30,769 shares
- **How It Works**:
30,769 shares × $2.94/year = ~$90,461 annually, or $7,538/month (supplemental dividends could push it higher).
- **Pros**: Monthly dividends; potential for bonus payouts from investment gains.
- **Cons**: Higher risk due to exposure to middle-market loans.

---

### Example 5: AT&T (T) – 4.9% Yield
- **Type**: Individual Stock (Telecom)
- **Dividend Yield**: ~4.9% (quarterly payer)
- **Dividend Details**: Pays ~$1.11/share annually at ~$22.50/share.
- **Required Investment**:
$90,000 ÷ 0.049 = **$1,836,735**
- **Shares Needed**: $1,836,735 ÷ $22.50 ≈ 81,632 shares
- **How It Works**:
81,632 shares × $1.11/year = ~$90,611 annually, or $7,551/month (paid quarterly, so ~$22,653 every 3 months).
- **Pros**: High yield from a telecom giant; historically stable dividends (though cut in 2022).
- **Cons**: Quarterly payments; past dividend reduction signals caution.

---

### Key Considerations
- **Investment Size**: You’ll need $1.4M–$3M depending on yield (5% yield = $1.8M; 3% yield = $3M).
- **Payment Frequency**: Realty Income and Main Street Capital pay monthly, aligning with your $7,500/month goal. Others pay quarterly, requiring you to spread the income.
- **Risk**: Higher yields (e.g., MAIN at 6.5%) involve more risk than lower-yield options (e.g., VYM at 3%).
- **Taxes**: Dividends may be taxed as ordinary income or qualified dividends (15-20%), reducing net income unless in a tax-advantaged account.
- **Market Conditions**: Yields and prices shift daily; confirm current data before investing.

These examples—Realty Income, Verizon, VYM, Main Street Capital, and AT&T—span REITs, telecoms, ETFs, and BDCs, offering a mix of stability and yield. Want me to adjust for a specific investment amount or focus on monthly payers only?

What are other sources of revenue or inocme the person has? SS, disability, pension etc. etc. Those funds can lower the investment capital needed or the returns. Every $1K per month can lower the investment principal at 5% returns by 240 K. Another thing that can be reviewed is at age 84 , how much capital is available to be used if needed or does the person not want to spend capital. Finding a solid fixed revenue from capital may actually return more than trying to time the more higher risk investments and probably even more so for the short term then the long term.

Bryce

Sell off Monday

Some on here crack me up! Invest 3 million? You got that kind of money forget junk bonds risk of any kind
9000 a month assisted living?? Pay a live in nurse 4000 per. Take the “investments given in the 3 page example and put in CD at 4.25 at 250,000 each cd Are there ways 3 million can make more? Of course! Heck buy rental property! But I think person that this is for just wanted to be comfortable until passing. You got 3 million laying around to invest you are comfortable
4.25 on 3 million is 127,000 per year
Doing nothing
Watching nothing
Worrying none

Hence my yield max ETF example

At 84, you could live pretty comfortable without any investments for the rest of your life with a lot less than 3 million

As for selling off Monday??

Hard to say,,,,,,market rallied pretty good after the rumble in the White House

Sorry I kind of left you hanging. I was gone most of yesterday. Some good questions.

Assisted living is not a fixed cost. Went up 15% in one year after inflation spike. Will go up with inflation and may double when it is time for memory care. Currently my fixed income investments are keeping bills paid. This is only because interest rates are normal again. If they go back to near zero again, they will again be a poor option. I have been able to grow the portfolio since I took over. I want to continue this trend as long as possible and have funds to risk in the market which should pay a better return over a 5 year period than my fixed opportunities.

My cash, as fixed investments mature, is currently being held in a money market account that pays 5%. I see no reason to move this money out of this account and buy fixed investments at less or into the market at this moment in time. Hence trying to time the market. I played the same strategy with the Nasdaq in March of 2024. Am I doing something stupid by waiting to invest?

Just one person’s opinion,,,,

There’s been a significant pullback from the trump bump

I see it continuing for at least another 6 months,,,(tariff turmoil,etc)

Pullbacks are good. And a good time to dabble(not all in,,,yolo)

Trumpster is a huge fan of a strong/rising market

He’ll pull all the levers he can to have positive market going into midterms


Well it happen that way??? Remains to be seen,,,,

I'm no White17, but I know that markets do not like chaos.

If I had a 1 million or so to last me till I'm gone I wouldn't worry about investing it to make a big return. I'm 71 and come to the fact that I just want to live till I die. Maybe tomorrow or 20 years from now - nobody knows but the last thing I worry about is leaving anybody a big estate to spend on things I did without.

I am of the age to have several friends who retired right before the pandemic. They all had jobs that provided pensions. In essence they are living on pensions and social security. Each of them have remarked on how tight their budgets have become in just a few short years. I realize this is anecdotal but I think it demonstrates the importance of investing in income assets that can at least keep pace with inflation.

Personally, I don't think you are making a mistake by waiting. Too much uncertainty at the moment along with stretched valuations....IMO.

I would also suggest that while you wait you might want to look into master limited partnerships..........several pipeline companies in the US pay a healthy distribution that is also tax advantaged. Companies like EPD, ET, KMI, WMB.

I am also a fan of preferred stocks in this environment. Many of these issues are bank preferreds and offer slightly greater yields than the common or bonds of the same company. There is a slight learning curve involved but it is mostly different jargon.

you can read up on those in general here:


https://www.quantumonline.com/PfdSymbolsNames.cfm


I certainly don't see a circumstance where "one size fits all" in your situation. I think you'll have to continue to pursue a multi-legged stool

I am a fan of EPD and ET. I think LNG and electricity produced with gas are going to be important to the world for the foreseeable future. I have owned both for quite a few years.

I struggle with learning and understanding what to buy. I guess I don't know the right questions to ask if that makes sense.

lot of guys that were told to buy bitcoin when it was just pennies that heeded that advice are out for the oracle's blood...

Who ever bought bitcoin and believed in it good for them. I am happy for anyone that buys something and it goes to the moon!!!!!

I don’t understand bitcoin. !!!!!!

Think of BTC as a payment processor at it gets a bit easier to understand without having to understand the blockchain technology behind it.

I am Canadian , and hold almost all can stocks and etf's I like canadian pipelines ENB PPL. oil and gas royalty companies FRU ,Pey. Also Canadian bank high interest funds SBC, LBS> FIE. HMAX. have been trying to get my head around block chain . Picked up a few BTCY to keep an eye on, .really don't understand it. But it pays monthly. Hold some AI , QMAX, Not sure what is coming up with threatened tarrifs. Good Luck old243

"Washington will also review the variable interest entity (VIE) structure allowing hundreds of Chinese firms to be listed in the U.S., potentially forcing them to delist if this loophole is found to be detrimental to U.S. investors or enable fraud.

This would wipe about $848 billion from U.S. securities markets, according to 2024 figures from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission."

How likely is this one and how bad would it be for the market?

If they were delisted, the securities would still exist, you just wouldn't be able to trade them on the the previous exchange till they find a new home. Which would likely trigger a mass sell off to avoid the nightmare that would be for the brokerage houses. Doubt they'd have a larger market effect but could be wrong on that.

I try to avoid anything with an unreasonable degree of geopolitical risk. Most anything Chinese or Latin American falls into that category IMO

Be nice if we could also avoid domestic political risk.

S&P down 1.75% today because of tariffs. About the exact same amount down YTD.

Awesome job......

Lol...
MAGA !!!!!

The market slide is starting hang on going to be a tough one Im afraid.

One day doesn't make a market.

The stock market has been too reliant on government spending as a share of gdp.

To right any resemblance of a free market it's going to hurt

The new secretary of Treasury has some pretty good comments on that if anyone cares to do some research

Exactly.

Govt spending is about 6% of GDP as I recall.
I didn't care for Bessent at first but he is well respected and seems to have his head on straight. Hopefully he can prevent the implementation of some of the wacky ideas of others

Suppose it would suck if you started in the last month or so,,,

1.75% is pretty much just noise

It’s likely going lower

Federal government spending is 23 percent of gdp. Deficit spending may be 6 percent?

Nobody is saying one day makes a market. But the market reacts, and has been reacting, to the recent chaos in DC.

Drive it down, then invest and make it on the way up.

That’s the spirit!!

Could very well be the plan for the oligarchy.

SP 500 is down about .5 percent YTD. If the new gubbemint is serious about reducing spending as a percent of gdp it will drop the market and most likely cause a recession. That is not entirely a bad thing.

You still worried about becoming the 51st. Lol

Oh geeze.

Kansas cat i own them also for a few years still DCA in them

Stephen 49, can you give me an example of a good recession?

Called correction not recession. Things way over priced. Too much claiming what it’s worth versus it’s actual worth. Make a list of things that fit that description. You will need lots of paper and few days off work

It's a part of the free market. Its not without pain.

How are tarriffs part of a free market?

Trying to time the market? Geez how many in the world are trying to do that and throughout history too?
Just buy smart and solid pics and feed a steady diet to your portfolios.
I can look at my own portfolio and always say geez I should have bought this or that, but it doesn’t change anything. I buy what I know at the time and move forward. It’s been a solid approach for my lifetime. Even in up and down markets you still own same number of shares so keep the foot on the gas.
It’s a long view investment. Unless you are a day or options trader and no faster way to lose your butt that I know of.
Buffet had it right when he said if he wouldn’t own it for ten years then he didn’t want to own it.
Now if you want my opinion on trends up or down, I am buying a little more defensive stance stocks now. We’ve hit records recently and it’s been a pretty good climb up for some time. I didn’t like and still don’t like the long (This word is unacceptable on Trapperman) inverted rate curve we lived with for longest stretch in history and that it went back to inversion recently. That’s been a pretty consistent predictor of recessions. But on down years, what a great time to buy to ride the next wave up.
There’s always the presidential cycle impact too. We get decent trends up for about three years after elections, but that fourth year when there is uncertainty of who is coming into office…those can be down years.
But best approach is just buy solid good companies and feed it a steady diet. If you make a wrong pic own it and learn from it but keep the foot on the gas. Accumulate shares one enjoy them over time.
Jim

Blaine, I'm not worried about the world market only ours.

Tarrifs are a tax same as sales tax, excise tax, Pittman Robertson tax, income tax.

Tariffs won't send us into a recession like cutting spending will. Are you against decreasing the size of government?

You dodged the question about tariffs. As for the "world market", you are hundreds of years too late. "Our" market is intertwined with a larger "world" market.

Of course I am for decreasing the size and spending of the U.S. government. But it must be orderly and efficient. What we are seeing from D.C. is not even in the zip code of orderly or efficient. It is chaos.

Thanks Dirt. I remember now the piece I was reading said that DISCRETIONARY spending was 6 % of GDP

Hoping for a correction and not a recession but things are going south again today.

You guys that keep pushing the long term strategy, remember I am investing for an 84 year old. What's the long term here?

No snark intended here but that person probably has beneficiaries. They are the ones that you should be viewing as long term holders. Stepped up basis after the departure of the primary is involved. Goal #1 is to provide for the primary. Just because there may be a difference in goals, doesn't mean you cant maximize more than one variable.

Dirt what you are asking is almost impossible unless there is a significant balance.

Time frame is too short to expose herself to much risk.

I have to watch myself and think of my primary responsibility, not my secondary. However, it also was the goal to leave beneficiaries money too. Hence trying to keep the pot growing and provide for the 84 year old at the same time.

Exactly !. I am sure you will manage it too !

What do you expect with an 18 month window to try and unwind 50 years of bad policies. I didn't dodge the question so much. I would like a free market with fair trade.

I'd like a secure border.

I'd like it so my daughters and granddaughters don't have a dude competing in sports against them or in their bathroom

I'd like to get out of forever conflicts.

I'm giddy they reigned in USAID,

That is not to say there aren't some things I don't like.

Every one he primaries against would have been more of the same.

Dirt, do the best you can. At the end of the day, the only factor is seeing the primary maintains her assets to see to her care.

No sense exposing her assets to unnecessary risk to protect the beneficiaries interest

White17 and Steven 49er. Spot on.

As far as tariffs. It was either tariff's or Raise everyone tax’s. Tariffs lesser of the 2 evils!!!! IMO!!!!

Steve, if you look at history during the 90's when the U.S. reigned in deficit spending and started running small surpluses, it was not lower Federal spending that got them there. It was limited to no increase in Federal spending and steady increases in revenue that got them there. Not sure this is even possible with the new hole the U.S. is in and the baby boomer problem. No way this will be fixed by E.O.s in 18 months. IMHO It would take years of focused effort by Congress and Presidents to possibly get the current mess under control.

Yes the federal government is 23% of our GDP with a bit over 3 million employees of which 600k are USPS workers, but the 3 million doesnot include the 1.3 million active duty military or the roughly 1.1 millio in the reserves.
The largest department for federal employees is the DoD with about 775K employees of which 485K are VVA employees. When this all shakes out we will see which agencies or departments will have the biggest reductions. The federal employees make up just shy of 2% of the total work force in the USA. That means to me that with 23% of the GDP the federal government keeps millions of private sector employees employed.

Bryce

Department of defense needs to lose some weight Im betting there is more lard there than anywhere else and one of the biggest cost to the taxpayers.

Did Dirt ever disclose the amount to be invested? it is impossible to answer without that information.

Many Democrats and Republicans alike would say not raising spending at least the rate of inflation is a cut.

Clinton trimmed the federal workforce 375000 or so jobs.

The new budget should be balanced, there would be some screaming then.

Does that 375,000 include the 400,000 troops he eliminated? The defense budget never increased from 1990 to 1999.

trump tariffs tanking the market, erased trillions in cap so far

https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-rates-tariffs-trump-1ca865fa6abcca716b5e7c9281ea6e07

The recent decline in U.S. stocks has wiped out all of the markets’ gains since Trump’s election in November.

Losing Bigly!!

Market recovered today what was lost yesterday more or less, should have jumped in. We will see more big dips.

But by which side, you don’t have to cut costs to balance it, they can raise taxes.

Markets go up and down. It's been over valued for a good while and a pull back is not unexpected. I'm down but up on everything I picked up today. good time to buy at a discount.

The stock market is not the only assets that are over valued, but then when people are willing to pay those prices that was the going rates are. The thing about security and or stock related assets as they are some of the easiest and fastest to buy or sell.

Bryce

Setting up to be another awful day in the market. This is not market volatility. These are deliberately bad decisions.

The chaotic mess in DC is going to run us into the ditch. It's like they want to destroy our country--but I guarantee they are making out like bandits.

Seriously did you act like this during every market correction? Get in and make some money.

Seriously, I have read your repeated posts on the market and I am really glad you are excited about your 401K balance but you have no idea what you are talking about here.

Anyone that has ever had money in the markets, and can see past their fingers, knows this is not only normal, but kind of overdue

401, roths for wife and I, and other brokerage accounts for the kids as well as non retirement accounts. Blain. your right I'm just a beginning to dabble with trading and am no expert for sure. But there have been at least 16 recessions in the last 100 years. Different causes for each but the results are always the same. People freak out sell and lock in losses, some buy when it's down and do well when it recovers. And typically the market recovers in 18 to 24 months though there have been longer recoverys.


If I were retired or close to it I would not be happy for sure. But I have 11 years before that is possible. As much as I'm dumping in I was hoping for a down turn becues I would rather not be buying so much at or near all time highs . looking at all the red stinks but it's just a buying opportunity. The stocks are the same just selling at a discount now. probably the only thinking I know of people don't like when they can buy at a discount.

Maybe you can explain to my uneducated hind end where I'm wrong. I'm always wanting to learn.


30 minutes tell the markets open and I can't wait.

This is not a correction. We were cruising along. Earnings looked great and we were going to make some money this year. Sure, the market is overvalued but so what? That's the market and we were still going to make money. I understand corrections and we can hedge for that.

This drop is a direct result of the stupid tariffs and other chaos in D.C. That is not a correction.

I guarantee however that the grifters in D.C. bought automaker stocks at 11:00 a.m. yesterday......

Someone tell me how I am wrong and explain how this is just a market correction.

Same as it's always been just different stimulus moving the markets. Take advantage of it. rising markets are not the only way or even the best way to make money.

This drop is a result of the current uncertainty,,,,,you’re not wrong

The market never goes in a straight line high and to the right for ever,,,,

Losing “biggly” is when circuit breaker/halts are happening,,,,,could happen,,,hasn’t happened yet

Throwing this out there,,,if you’re into trading

European defense has been crushing it,,,and will continue

EUAD for example

Should have just left every thing as is, status quo and just keep spending. 45 trillion in debt in 4 years and then the other side takes over. At the end of that 4 years we are done and the dollar is half of current value and taxes are doubled. Our currency gets replaced, we should be in great shape as China takes over the world and we 're are forced to learn Mandarin.

Nobody is saying that. Y'all realize it is possible to do things orderly without chaos, right? The "Republicans" have both houses of Congress and the Presidency--at least for now.

Got to get through the embedded Swamp. Had all the branches last time the fires 2 year also and the rental approach didn't work.

And Blain man I already bought and sold stock today for a profit. Made 1 dollar so far.

Market down again I will plan on getting back in during the next election maybe we will be at a bottom.

When younger and building a portfolio, going through the cycles was not an issue for me as I was not pulling out funds. Today that is different and I am more market exposed then most investors my age. (77). Now when one needs to pull out funds it is not good to be pulling out when the markets are down. I had older friends that needed to do that in 2008-009 and it cost them lots of money. We have enough to cover some major construction and moving expenses but I am meeting with our planner next week to discuss our future. Right now interest rates in the 4-5% range make lowering some exposure more attractive. I don't like the market going down but we may have more uncertainty and rising costs in just living over the short term than investments. Companies will still keep producing and making money if consumers will pay the increased costs. Now we have daily announcements that create uncertainty.

Bryce

Even with a large(or small) investment account

Still need a rainy day fund so that you’re not forced to sell

I stand corrected. You, sir, are in line to be our next Treasury Secretary in the Trump Administration.

Nobody is saying that. Y'all realize it is possible to do things orderly without chaos, right? The "Republicans" have both houses of Congress and the Presidency--at least for now.

Well, you keep thinking that and we'll see what happens, politicians will never do what needs doing, eventually it's their ox being gored. I feel sorry for my grand kids and for people that don't see the big picture.

Just a start of things to come not much thinking on how things are done or the ramifications of the results. I betting SS is hit in some way which might be the final straw, medicade is all ready on the chopping block. One thing certain the ultra rich have nothing to worry about, so I guess most of us on this forum are worry free.

Lost track of how much profit I have made at this point today. But I think it's over $25 now on trades. ( I play with small amounts for entertainment in the retirement accounts. No fees on trades and don't worry about paying taxes on it. Keeps me entertained and not looking at all the columns in the red.

The only way going forward with SS is raise the contribution rate as well as Medicare, Medicaid is Obama care at it's finest. Wasn't that MaCain the hero that let that happen. Socialist healthcare is where we are at and I see no way out.

I think I may have made the right decision not to invest in stock heavy mutuals in December? I think the guaranteed 5 % was right decision for awhile?

About 21% of the U.S. population, or 83 million people, have Medicaid coverage, including those with low income and disabilities, as well as seniors. Medicaid, not Medicare, covers long-term care expenses for the elderly.

A pile of mom's roommates bills are being paid by you.

41% of all births in the US are paid by Medicaid which is the biggest payer. Socialism at it's finest.

From each according to their ability, to each according to their needs.

51 percent of Medicaid's funds were spent on seniors and people with disabilities in 2021, the most recent year for which data are available.
Medicaid was the largest single payer of long-term services and supports (58 percent) in 2022, which includes spending for nursing homes, home health services, residential care facilities, and waivers for other home and community-based services.

Sucks to have ability.

I know many people that put their holdings in a trust so nursing homes can't get it, suppose that's ok also.

Now you are defining the problem.

If Medicaid is greatly lowered or eliminated I would hope that Congress would be willing to pass a death with dignity or assissted suicide bill for the nation so that our elders can leave without having to perish in horrible conditions or the wealth of all generations get used to extend life. If we want the government to lower the quality of options for our elderly and poor to live they should pass options that can be used.

Bryce

A bit late now but this is why of you need to withdraw 5% a year on the good years when your up 20%+ take out the double what you need and put it in a safe low return investment over the years and then on down years your not forced to sell at a loss instead taking out of the safety net fund.

We took out 5 years of growth last fall. Still hurts to see it bob like a bobber in the wave because politicians change their minds every day. Trying to run an international or global business in this environment creates a lot of caution which really lowers growth.

Bryce

how about an update, danvee...

Rat I think your mistaken about a trust keeping money from the old folks home they been through it with several folks and a trust didnt keep the nursing home from collecting monthly fees

White marlin as far as the market its not over POTUS farts and it will drop I hope not but over 3 years to go and lots more executive orders.

You don't study history much do you? Look at Trumps last term and what the markets did. He is just laying ground work. Did you buy in the dip? if so and you think it going to drop sell and wait for the drop.

I hope it drops again I sat back and didn't go all in and missed the bottom. Your right fart in the wind and it will drop again. That's what markets do.

and yet you yelled "The sky is falling! The sky is Falling!" all over the place when it first went down.

typical liberal tactic to scream bloody murder when the "other guy" makes a move, but you'll ignore the impacts from your own guy's decisions.

so predictable...you, BC and a few others.

I said holdings, like a farm, which if put in an irrevocable trust after so many years can not be touched by a nursing home. I know a guy that did it.

Rat, I think it's 5 years.

80 billion give or take in QE the last few weeks.

It varies by State law. I think they will start raising it higher yet to prevent this scheme. People sure like to avoid paying their bills when they can put them on the taxpayer. That is what makes them morally superior to me.

If the Government does this It will target a younger group next move and try to eliminate SS or lower the cost by a form of genocide. Covid failed to do it but may come back with a vengeance.