I also believe that speculators will exit the market way before we reach that price level. The risk far outweighs the potential reward. It would be far too likely for government to step in and essentially nationalize the oil industry for "national security" reasons. No investor or speculator wants to be holding the bag at that point.

I believe the consensus of most would be that people can and do lose money in markets. I also doubt they do so intentionally. After a good run in a market and it starts getting tired there will be a point of profit taking and/or moving to another month in which there will be a reversal in the present trend. That is the time in which commission houses (that is what they used to call them anyway) start putting out hype to attract new money. In an up market that would be a bull trap and the new interest will cause an up movement which is actually the first wave in a Elliot down cycle. If the commercials have a heavy interest and didn't get turned around then it may take a double top or even a third for a head and shoulders. A small guy with a couple contracts can easily get in and out without even making a new tick. Commercials with thousands of contracts can't just dump their contracts or they would fall under their own weight. Hunt brothers and their speculation had that problem. They owned a lot and couldn't sell without killing the price. They couldn't keep it because interest and storage was eating them up. They was in a difficult quandrum. Greed tends to blind the speculator. Too bad because the speculator does provide a necessary component for a free market.