This jumped in kind of late. Wrote it this afternoon and after the recent posts.
I will reedit this to address some of my feelings on keeping money in the villages.
My thought is that locals could gain from providing drop off packages and boat rentals for resident and non. Restricted to certain areas that the villages deem appropriate. Cut down on the competition and give some local employment and harvest some of the excess. Many residents would pay for drop off hunts if the equipment was supplied. It is not guiding. Other guys do this. Not sure of all the legalities but it is a thought.
There will still someday become an issue of carrying capacity. And I bet the lower reaches of the Yukon are getting there. There are far more alder than anything in the lower yukon area. Where are the concentrations of moose in the winter. Specific patchs of willow. You see concentrations of them where ever you fly over the willow patchs near the river bend and disturbed grounds some of the best. There is only so many willow tops to go around. There is always scattered moose. Always will be. But the willow patches take it in the tops in the concentrated areas. Come to Homer and look at what years of overgrazing did to the willow patches in the prime winter areas. Very apparent. Short stubble of a willow with ever available nibble taken off them every year.
The numbers are not there yet in the Mountain Village area and above. But their will come a day in the lower river, if it is not their yet when winter browse will be the deciding factor for a healthy herd. Be different if they had a place to go. Holy Cross moose can migrate up or down as they need. Where does a moose at the mouth of the Yukon go when it needs new habitat.
Much like the lynx populations. They have steadily grown for the last 15 years.
My theory
They also have no where to go. Bearing Sea, Tundra for miles and miles north and South. Or back up river. Plenty of food. Even with low hare numbers our rodent population is such that it could support any predator out there if they got hungry.
Doesn't seem to be a boom and bust. Just boom. at least for the last 12 years. No sign of a down turn yet.
Trappers seem to be keeping these numbers in check.
But moose. Only so many the villagers can take.
And yes no dead moose yet showing up to starvation.
And certainly not in your area Jeff but I do wonder about the Emmo Kotlik areas. When we might see some of it down the line.
Interesting article.
Alaska Moose management-Science or Comic book biology As he describes it moose left to fulfill the carrying capacity of an area live on the brink of disaster. It is far better to maintain the herd at 50 to 75 % Thus insuring extra food for those hard winters of cold and deep snow. Little wiggle room on a hard winter with little food. Moose die. Just like other animals. And that might be worth it to the local villagers in view of the alternative, Outside hunting pressure.
Hard decisions for both sides. But in the end. There will be dead moose one way or the other. Wolves, people, cold, starvation. What should we manage for. Many sides to that question. And to each his own.