Thise numbers are not accurate at all.
In Wyoming we have just over 300 confirmed cases.
That chart shows us at over 400.
They are counting presumed positives on that chart as well
People who have never been tested

Exactly.

2nd wave to come.

Stats show that 2nd wave is the far worse.

"America has dropped the death rate to 21% now."

Another totally worthless statistic.

Exactly! Thank you for what you do! I'm still going to work, albeit only two days a week, building diesel engines for power generation and over highway tractors. This thing is terrifying!

Stats? 2nd wave? So we've been thru this before?

Immunity is the key, but does it come from herd immunity or a vaccine, if we get one. Social distancing slows down the herd immunity, but then that is it's purpose. I've been thinking about some numbers.

There's been a lot of talk about how the models have been way off. The 1.5 to 2 million deaths in the US aren't even close to being real.

But then I've read a lot of articles that say you need 50% to 70% of the population to contract the virus in order to get herd immunity and stop the spread. And I read a lot of articles that say the death rate will end up being not much worse then the flu, maybe 1%.

So if we had done nothing on day one and let it spread to get herd immunity quickly, doesn't that mean with 300 plus million people in the US, about 150 to 200 million people contracting the virus gives us herd immunity. And if 1% of them die, we're looking at 1.5 to 2 million deaths, about what the original models said.

This makes me wonder, if those numbers hold, do we still end up with that many deaths, only spread out over a long period of time because of social distancing, say maybe 2, 3, or even 4 years. And if that's the case, does that mean we're in for a long long road to recovery.

There is one thing we can say with complete certainty, that no one has any clue what the actual mortality rate is.

Noticed the same I go once every 2 weeks for groceries people wandering around nothing in their carts i'm in and out when I leave they'are still wandering around course the have masks on

Exactly.
Been keeping a graph since 1st death attributed to chink virus in pa which was March 20th. Cases, increase, and deaths, and increase. Shredded it. THREE times it went backwards and numbers were changed. Three strikes an yr out. As far as I'm concerned they are being altered to fit an agenda. Figures don't lie but liars figure!!!

They are trying to keep us surpressed!!!

Yes I can tell u!!!
Take number of deaths and divide by 328,000,000= US death rate!!!

And that was the point of my post. 50% needed to contract the virus to get herd immunity, 150 million people have to contract it. I've seen 4 or 5 medical related people use that percentage. If someone has a report with a much lower percentage leave a link please I'd love to read it.

Many want to say a 5% death rate, it's 4% today, but again medical related people say it could be as low as 1%, much like the flu.

That still gives us 1.5 to 2 million that die. The key is how long does it take to reach that point.

Oh and on that death rate being similar to the flu, that 1% or less death rate is a guess. They don't take the number of flu deaths compared to the actual number of flu cases in a year, they guess how many people may have had the flu based on the number of actual cases, and then they come up with 1% or less from their guessed number.

the US population is currently listed at 331 million.

If we loose 1% of the population that is 3.3 million people

if we loose 2% of the population 6.6 million people

3% of the population 9.9 million

if you add up all US deaths in every war since 1775 the total is 1.35 million

if you start to think that 1 bio-weapon whether it got out by accident or not , whether they intended it's use as a bio-weapon or not it always had that very real potential since they started messing with it and I think they new it and we knew it .

This bio weapon is on track to kill more people in a year than every war in our nations history of 245 years.

by the end of next week the US death toll will be equal to the entirety of Vietnam.

as for probable cases, do you not count all the dead POW of a war even though they didn't die in combat the enemy still killed them deliberate or by conditions of starvation or treatment.


this is with extreme measures in place for more than a month.


as a comparison to the flu of the positive flu tests in a year the death rate is around 0.09%= (34,157/35,520.887)



what I do think will be possible is for counties with no new covid cases in 10 days for testing to happen and new norms of work get set up and many people can return to work in these places , the counties with new cases and many active cases will need to get to where they are 10 days or some amount of new case free days , then test people returning to production facilities.

I know drivers have been unloading their own loads for years , but as a safety truckers probably need to be hook and go and not penalized for things that were never their fault to begin with.
it really isn't your fault if they put moldy fruit in your truck the buyer should be getting good loads from the supplier and the driver only be the driver not the QA man also.

we will need to work smart to keep this out of our counties and keep our counties working.

1% death rate for US is 3.28 million. Just sayin

Not quite 37,500 that equals .01% Need 100x that to get to 1%

Possibly, but not from the virus.

37K in a month with extreme measures in place.

if the measures work very well , the deaths don't happen and people are mad it was for not


if nothing is done and it takes 5% say you have a massive loss that would be like emptying several states of their population.



we are getting very close to having counties with no new cases for a week or more and adjacent counties also , that could mean producers in those counties could open or stay open but going forward there will be a new norm to how we insure labor and production security.

Yep, it's only been 37,500. But then it only took 6 weeks to get there, and it started out real slow. But I do love how people, not necessarily you, like to compare 6 weeks of this with social distancing in place to a whole flu season with no social distancing.

Stay the same rate for the rest of the year and we're looking at 325,000 deaths. Could the rate of spread slow, sure anything is possible. But logic tells us as we open things up, and I'm not saying we shouldn't I think we should, the rate could stay the same and maybe even increase with occasional spikes around the country.

I have no problem saying the death rate here is no worse then the flu. Not sure I believe it, but I'll agree with it. That still leaves us with 300+ million where 150 million need to get it, which leaves us with 1.5 million dead. It may take 5 years for that to happen, maybe longer. But the point remains the same, this is far from over and it's going to be a very long time before we get close to our old normal, if we ever do.

I don't trust the death figures. Many places are counting all deaths as covid deaths even without a covid test being done

This is getting stupid.