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scenario analysis #7278181
06/02/21 05:27 PM
06/02/21 05:27 PM
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,277
Southern Illinois
F
Foxpaw Offline OP
trapper
Foxpaw  Offline OP
trapper
F

Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,277
Southern Illinois
Ok I figure after the holiday crowds it should be a good test as to where we really are at with the covid.
1. A surge of infections among the unvaccinated will show its not over.
2. Surge among the people who have had shots would mean its not over and the shots ain't working.
3. No surge among either group would mean its just disappearing for some reason, possibly herd immunity.

Any other thoughts I'd be interested in hearing as long as its not politics. One such thought would be how long will it take it to get thru the crowds and back home? I would think in 2 weeks we should know, well before July 4th.

Personally I thought one more covid thread and my wife would turn off my wifi and throw it away. Maybe, just maybe the end of it is near.
Hope and pray it keeps decreasing!

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278283
06/02/21 08:04 PM
06/02/21 08:04 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,398
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERB🦝 Offline
trapper
SNIPERB🦝  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,398
Rodney,Ohio
Hasn't been any surges on the states that have been opened for months. Outside of third world countries, it's done

Last edited by SNIPERB🦝; 06/02/21 08:04 PM.
Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278290
06/02/21 08:14 PM
06/02/21 08:14 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,398
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERB🦝 Offline
trapper
SNIPERB🦝  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,398
Rodney,Ohio
The fact that Fauci is now being thrown to the wolves by the left is a huge indicator.

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278313
06/02/21 08:52 PM
06/02/21 08:52 PM
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 271
Ontario, Canada
S
sweetwilliam Offline
trapper
sweetwilliam  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 271
Ontario, Canada
I think you are about to take another run down the rabbit hole with all the holiday travel.

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278330
06/02/21 09:26 PM
06/02/21 09:26 PM
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 6,099
MO
cfowler Offline
trapper
cfowler  Offline
trapper

Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 6,099
MO
Number 2 may be hard to calculate. I don’t believe the CDC is counting those who catch the virus if they’ve had the shot(s). Listened to a program the other day, and they mentioned the “new” cdc guidelines for counting cases. True or not? I haven’t attempted to verify.


I trap for fun. I skin 'em for the money!
Grinners For Life-Lifetime Member, MO Chapter, Den #1
~You Grin, You're In~
Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278337
06/02/21 09:31 PM
06/02/21 09:31 PM
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 4,150
perry co.Pa
wetdog Offline
trapper
wetdog  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 4,150
perry co.Pa
When they write a book, there end is near.
Dr Fowchee just wrote a book.

Coincidence?

Re: scenario analysis [Re: cfowler] #7278340
06/02/21 09:32 PM
06/02/21 09:32 PM
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,406
Arkansas
J
J Staton Offline
trapper
J Staton  Offline
trapper
J

Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,406
Arkansas
Originally Posted by cfowler
Number 2 may be hard to calculate. I don’t believe the CDC is counting those who catch the virus if they’ve had the shot(s). Listened to a program the other day, and they mentioned the “new” cdc guidelines for counting cases. True or not? I haven’t attempted to verify.

CDC website said that breakthrough cases are likely under reported according to their website.


1 Samuel 17:45-47
Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278342
06/02/21 09:33 PM
06/02/21 09:33 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 493
Ashippun, WI
R
rszwieg Offline
trapper
rszwieg  Offline
trapper
R

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 493
Ashippun, WI
It seems the ahem powers that be are determining that Covid "probably" cave from a lab.

Oh my. We have vaccines so it's OK now.

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278448
06/02/21 11:32 PM
06/02/21 11:32 PM
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 4,774
fayette,al.
G
grisseldog Offline
trapper
grisseldog  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 4,774
fayette,al.
Yep the left is done with fauci , they need him to shut up.
Gonna be interesting to see how they get rid of him.

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278454
06/02/21 11:39 PM
06/02/21 11:39 PM
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2,830
minnesota
M
mnsota Offline
trapper
mnsota  Offline
trapper
M

Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 2,830
minnesota
3. No surge among either group would mean its just disappearing for some reason, possibly herd immunity


Maybe mutated to a lesser degree?
Fauci would know. smile

Re: scenario analysis [Re: wetdog] #7278479
06/03/21 12:36 AM
06/03/21 12:36 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,398
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERB🦝 Offline
trapper
SNIPERB🦝  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,398
Rodney,Ohio
Originally Posted by wetdog
When they write a book, there end is near.
Dr Fowchee just wrote a book.

Coincidence?

Book is being scrubbed. Amazon and Barnes and Noble just took the preorders for the book down. It's happening

Re: scenario analysis [Re: grisseldog] #7278484
06/03/21 12:59 AM
06/03/21 12:59 AM
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 22,721
nm
A
adam m Offline
trapper
adam m  Offline
trapper
A

Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 22,721
nm
Originally Posted by grisseldog
Yep the left is done with fauci , they need him to shut up.
Gonna be interesting to see how they get rid of him.

An automobile "accident" is a common theme from what I hear

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278486
06/03/21 01:04 AM
06/03/21 01:04 AM
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 13,314
Georgia
warrior Offline
trapper
warrior  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 13,314
Georgia
[Linked Image]

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278488
06/03/21 01:04 AM
06/03/21 01:04 AM
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 22,721
nm
A
adam m Offline
trapper
adam m  Offline
trapper
A

Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 22,721
nm
[Linked Image]

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278495
06/03/21 02:20 AM
06/03/21 02:20 AM
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 9,672
Champaign County, Ohio.
K
KeithC Offline
trapper
KeithC  Offline
trapper
K

Joined: May 2009
Posts: 9,672
Champaign County, Ohio.
We just had dinner and game night, tonight, at a friend's who is an epidemiologist and professor. She had been doing the strict isolation thing since early last year so I suspect things are overall improving greatly with the spread of covid.

Keith

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278501
06/03/21 03:15 AM
06/03/21 03:15 AM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 2,235
W NY
Turtledale Offline
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Turtledale  Offline
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Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 2,235
W NY
Slight uptick and Herd immunity


NYSTA, NTA, FTA, life member Catt.county trappers
Re: scenario analysis [Re: Turtledale] #7278506
06/03/21 04:29 AM
06/03/21 04:29 AM
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,969
Indiana
P
Providence Farm Offline
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Providence Farm  Offline
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P

Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,969
Indiana
Originally Posted by Turtledale
Slight uptick and Herd immunity



And the weak/susceptible have allready died. Few get the chance to do that twice.

Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278510
06/03/21 05:17 AM
06/03/21 05:17 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 20,900
williamsburg ks
D
danny clifton Online content
"Grumpy Old Man"
danny clifton  Online Content
"Grumpy Old Man"
D

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 20,900
williamsburg ks
its june. flu cases always go down in warm weather. cold and flu season is not a new term


Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790)
Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7278518
06/03/21 06:14 AM
06/03/21 06:14 AM
Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,829
SE WI
DuxDawg Offline
trapper
DuxDawg  Offline
trapper

Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,829
SE WI
Corona viruses throughout history have followed the exact same pattern. Exactly as China virus did. *yawn*


"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."
-Edmund Burke
"We are fast approaching... rule by brute force."
-Ayn Rand
Re: scenario analysis [Re: Foxpaw] #7281164
06/07/21 07:20 AM
06/07/21 07:20 AM
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,277
Southern Illinois
F
Foxpaw Offline OP
trapper
Foxpaw  Offline OP
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F

Joined: May 2016
Posts: 2,277
Southern Illinois
I'm thinking since they are starting up the cruise liners which seem to be perfect floating petri dishes, all the people will have been vaccinated. So while the CDC most likely wouldn't tell us if people that had the shot gets sick, we will hear the news if the people on the ships start getting sick. Right now every thing right here is looking good with 0 cases the last few days.

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