Indeed I see that as a very real possibility. I think Powell was on the verge of a 50 bp increase on March 22. I suspect this might cause him to go wobbly and back off and go with 25 bp. I hope I am wrong

Holding firm will destroy the housing market, real estate markets, job market and the governments will have to make draconian cuts. Entitlement programs will be in deep do do. Painful at best it will be. I see it as a good thing. I'm in the minority.

I don't think he has any choice but to pivot.

I'm with you.
Rip the band-aid off and get it over with

I actually think we need to see hyperinflation and destroy the currency. Then maybe the world can return to sound money principles.

If we don't the cycle will repeat, every time it repeats it gets exponentially worse. Predictable cycle of a debt backed currency.

It's no coincidence central banks are piling into gold.

I don't think this little episode will get us that far.

I think you are right concerning this bank failure. No one knows what the event will be, it's possible this last round of monetary easing has put us over the top.

If not that one, can any one imagine how big the next stimulus plan and quantitative easing will be.

I think that is one reason Powell and crew are so determined to keep going. They need to get rates to a point that gives them room on the downside for future cuts.

I would like to see, from a purely academic standpoint, what would happen if,.. instead if increasing rates, Congress would step in and back the dollar with about 5% gold just for starters. It would cause a lot of disruptions for sure..........especially on exporters...but I think it would have a more immediate impact on inflation than raising rates will. It may also cause more banks to have problems.

Fun experiment though

Are you actually destroying the housing market, by not juicing it anymore? Or are you just restoring a free market housing market, where prices don't go up faster than overall inflation and the average square footage comes back down to the old practical sized house.?

The bank speculated by lending to tech startup companies. Not a diversified investment strategy. Not standard banking procedure.

Fun fact

Silicon Valley Banks Chief Administrative Officer was the CFO of Lehman Brothers' Global Investment Bank when it collapsed

This particular bank was founded in 1983 by two guys in a poker game. I suspect that a culture of risk-taking was prevalent throughout. That's ok by itself but the real culprit here was ignoring interest rate risk.

If the yield curve had not inverted, they would have likely been OK.....for a while longer

So how’s everyone playing this??

I don’t do options, so uvxy,,,

Paid well on Friday. Next week will be interesting

All you saps hoarding money in the bank better go get it now and spend it before you get frozen out,or it becomes worthless.

I won't touch SVB or anything associated with it but I do think one or two other companies, or maybe ETF's, may have been unfairly punished in the reaction to SVB. Those companies may be worth a look. And I think this is exactly the circumstance where an option position would be warranted over long stock

I am looking forward to a dow around 27k. Been patiently waiting since Brandon was appointed king. Hits that, and I will buy when the blood is running down the street....
Last few days seem to point that way. I realized it a period of 2 years ago - you just cant give money away and expect nothing to happen.

Anyone know how long the inverted yield curve on short term bonds has been? Some sharp financial folks have indicated a good correction after the yield curve happened. I do not claim to fully understand much of this financial stuff but find it extremely interesting. As for me and my house - we will continue to serve the Lord and give our tithes to those the Lord directs us to. He is the only one true investment that has never failed.

I sure hope the govt allows failure - it is only through failing, some folks find wisdom.

Never should have gone off the gold standard.

Reportedly Elon Musk said he was "open to the idea" of buying SVB.

The whole financial system is a rigged game of musical chairs...

I am just surprised no one has pointed out that a "silicone" valley is what you would find on an augmented chest.

After Friday's stunning collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions swirled around the exposure of one of crypto's top firms, Circle, the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin, USDC.

In its March attestation, Circle had revealed that part of its $9.88 in cash reserves was held at SVB, although it did not disclose the total amount. Following the collapse of SVB, withdrawals from USDC mounted, with the crypto intelligence platform Nansen showing over $1 billion in redemptions from the stablecoin since SVB's shutdown. USDC has a market cap just north of $40 billion.

As USDC lost its $1 peg across different crypto exchanges amid withdrawals, Circle sought to instill confidence, with the company tweeting at 6:50 pm ET that it would continue to operate normally, sharing that SVB was one of the six banking partners it uses for the 25% of its reserves that it keeps in cash, although still not disclosing the amount held at SVB.