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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: bblwi]
#8022104
12/16/23 09:58 AM
12/16/23 09:58 AM
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,655
Central Texas
Chancey
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,655
Central Texas
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HA! Very true Yotetrapper. Yeah, I picked a lot of them myself, and sure made a fool out of me.
And YES! Thank goodness I took white17s recommendation and bought some SPY and QQQ, sure glad I did cause it is helping offset my other screwups!
Resident Conspiracy Theorist
Accused Moron, Nazi, Low IQ, and Putin Fan Boy
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: bblwi]
#8022162
12/16/23 11:10 AM
12/16/23 11:10 AM
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Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,025
alberta
spjones
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,025
alberta
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Yes, greatly appreciate w17’s posts
That’s good that you dipped your toe in yotetrapper
Keep adding
Be cautious,,,,,patience key.
If don’t make your money work for YOU,,,,,you’ll always be working for money
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: yotetrapper30]
#8022293
12/16/23 02:54 PM
12/16/23 02:54 PM
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,176
McGrath, AK
white17
"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
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"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,176
McGrath, AK
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I am not sure what Scott means by "price stability" but I THINK he is referring to STOCK price stability rather than the prices of goods & services. I would differ a little bit from that explanation. VIX is a calculation of the EXPECTED volatility for the next 30 days. As Scott rightly points out it is a complex calculation that you really don't need to do yourself. But that calculation is based on the prices of out-of-the-money put and call options on the S&P 500 index for the upcoming 16 & 44 day periods. If the demand (from investors or speculators) for protection or hedging is low....then that will result in a lower value on the VIX calculation. VIX is calculated constantly in real time and most everyone can see it on their broker's platform. Generally, it gives an idea of how anxious or complacent traders are about the market actions over the next month. It can also give you an idea about how expensive or cheap the market may be at the moment. It is often used as a contrary indicator. Low readings, such as now, may indicate a market top or close to it........but that condition can go on a long time without disruption. There are a couple of 'old sayings' that often are applicable. " When the VIX is high, it's time to buy" This is usually the case if the market is selling off or "crashing". " When the VIX is low, it's time to go"..............meaning it's time to sell and take profits before the market tumbles. So.......what is "HIGH" and what is "LOW" ? That depends a lot on what is causing the market to do what it's doing and the magnitude of the move OVER TIME. Time is a critical part of volatility. BUT............the lowest I have ever seen was 10. something and the highest was in the 60's that I can recall. When the market goes up, VIX will usually go down and vice versa Angela, I know this stuff is not interesting at all to most people but, considering your interest in this subject, I have run my mouth a lot here. Here is a good book on the subject of volatility and how it impacts pricing https://www.amazon.com/Option-Volatility-Pricing-Strategies-Techniques/dp/0071818774 And here is a discussion of VIX on the CBOE website. CBOE created and owns VIX https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/ Thank you for explaining it so that anyone can understand. I'll check out the links you posted. So, I think I'm understanding right when I surmise that your saying it being that low is very scary is due to the fact that you believe it may precipitate a crash or at least strong downturn of the market?Oh, and I bet a lot more people appreciate reading your thoughts on these topics than you realize! I don't believe the VIX itself can precipitate a crash but rather it is saying (at this low level) that the majority of investors, traders, speculators....believe that everything is "just right" in the financial world. That attitude is reflected in the low reading on VIX. It sends a message of a high degree of complacency in the market. If there are 4000 "experts" in the financial markets and 3980 of them think everything is "just right".........then I think there is a good chance that they are wrong.............and, history shows us that they likely ARE wrong. Consequently VIX is telling us that there is a very good "probability"............as opposed to possibility..........that some black swan event will occur to push volatility back up to more "normal" levels...........at least above 20 if not higher. After all, with two wars raging, a US election coming up, core inflation still above 4%, US Treasury refinancing 10 trillion dollars worth of debt, Congress incurring 2 trillion dollar deficits each year, two presidential candidates that almost no one wants, China on the verge of a great depression while wanting to invade Taiwan and control the world...............to say nothing of the Fed disappointing markets by NOT dropping rates when the market expects them............... What could go wrong...............OH yeah, and markets hitting all-time highs. Recall that in October of 1987 the markets lost 22% in one day !! If that happened today the Dow would drop 7500 points !! In one day !! The S&P500 is predicted to hit 4800 by this time next year. It was at 4800 in January of 2022. That isn't much growth to look forward to. Sort of reminds me of reading Goldilocks . Everything is "just right ". !
Mean As Nails
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: bblwi]
#8022309
12/16/23 03:28 PM
12/16/23 03:28 PM
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Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,025
alberta
spjones
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,025
alberta
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Another gem of a post
Seems like everyone understands that this upcoming year is going too be very volatile,,,,
Wild swings make people money
What’s the play? Take profits,,,,short the q’s/spy?
Dig a hole,,,,jump in it?
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: bblwi]
#8022314
12/16/23 03:37 PM
12/16/23 03:37 PM
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Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,025
alberta
spjones
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,025
alberta
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Agreed
Move stops up
Wanted too add:
Everyone should be using “stop losses”
Last edited by spjones; 12/16/23 03:43 PM. Reason: Add
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: bblwi]
#8022411
12/16/23 06:33 PM
12/16/23 06:33 PM
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 16,620
Oakland, MS
yotetrapper30
trapper
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trapper
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 16,620
Oakland, MS
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Thanks white. I understand what you're saying. When people first started explaining what the VIX was I was trying to figure out why a stable market has you worried but I see where you're coming from now. I honestly thought the market would fall before now, I don't see how it keeps climbing the way it is.
~~Proud Ultra MAGA~~
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: bblwi]
#8034974
12/30/23 10:12 AM
12/30/23 10:12 AM
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Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 6,527
Wi.
Diggerman
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 6,527
Wi.
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No offence to all you experts and all your string theories, code words and abbreviations, But inflation is clearly driving the market. If you introduce trillions in capital an economy with low interest rates, it will go somewhere. The people with real vision bought land, which is now pretty much out of reach of 95% of the population, due to inflation. Which is in fact a tax on the average person. Others have tried tp protect their money from inflation by investing in stocks, hence more money in the market, the higher the market. I see this "high" market as a tell on a troubled economy. Basically, people just starting out and those who do not have money in the markets or land, which is a lot , are being left behind and we are creating a split society.
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: bodycount]
#8035022
12/30/23 11:20 AM
12/30/23 11:20 AM
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Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 6,527
Wi.
Diggerman
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 6,527
Wi.
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Looking at the big picture, I don't like what I see. So much smoke and mirrors. Our country has such weak leadership these days. 33 trillion in debt and our taxes can't pay the interest on it. Countries say they will nuke us before the next election. I have gone to CD's to park my cash. They pay 5.4% APY FDIC insured to $250,000. insured by who?
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: Dirt]
#8035036
12/30/23 11:35 AM
12/30/23 11:35 AM
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Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 8,974
Indiana
Providence Farm
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 8,974
Indiana
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Somebody that lives NW of me predicted a market crash under Joe Biden. One year left. Unless, we are real unlucky.  I predict a good year for the market and low fuel prices. Just my opinion based on nothing other than talk of lowering intrest rates and its an election year with the left in charge so they will want thing to appear going well. They know the average person has low iq and understanding with an even shorter memory. Late winter next year I wouldn't place any bets Now ther could be a major event to attempt to stroke patriotism and possibly post pone the election entertainment event. But those are my 2 theories. Doesn't matter what happens I will still max out my 401 and a roth and do the same next year if I have a job and the funds.
Last edited by Providence Farm; 12/30/23 11:48 AM.
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: bblwi]
#8035038
12/30/23 11:42 AM
12/30/23 11:42 AM
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 9,233
Alaska and Washington State
waggler
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 9,233
Alaska and Washington State
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Both the stock market and gold price have been surging to new highs. That doesn't make sense, they almost always move inversely to each other.
My guess is that those in-the-know are expecting more inflation.
"My life is better than your vacation"
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: CTRAPS]
#8035060
12/30/23 12:06 PM
12/30/23 12:06 PM
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Joined: Mar 2023
Posts: 1,465
WI
Mando
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Mar 2023
Posts: 1,465
WI
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Some will say the market is up due to Bidenomics. Many have no idea how the market works.
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Re: Market is at a record high
[Re: Providence Farm]
#8035064
12/30/23 12:09 PM
12/30/23 12:09 PM
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Joined: Mar 2023
Posts: 1,465
WI
Mando
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Mar 2023
Posts: 1,465
WI
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Somebody that lives NW of me predicted a market crash under Joe Biden. One year left. Unless, we are real unlucky. I predict a good year for the market and low fuel prices. Just my opinion based on nothing other than talk of lowering intrest rates and its an election year with the left in charge so they will want thing to appear going well. They know the average person has low iq and understanding with an even shorter memory. Late winter next year I wouldn't place any bets Now ther could be a major event to attempt to stroke patriotism and possibly post pone the election entertainment event. But those are my 2 theories. Doesn't matter what happens I will still max out my 401 and a roth and do the same next year if I have a job and the funds. X2
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