My retirement annuity is a market based annuity with a guarenteed minimum which was set when I retired. We use a 5 year rolling average to determine the funds needed to meet 5% for the still active working members. We are losing a good year and will now need to continue to use the 2022 year which was down 22%. We are anticipating a slight losss over the next 2-3 years as that bad year cycles through. The higher this year ends the more good numbers thsat go in our 5-year rolling average. Hope it keeps doing well.

Bryce

I haven't looked to see what the Fed did, spent all day in the seat loading trucks. With that said I hope they left it alone.

Well I see they cut by 25 basis points.

Supposedly employment numbers are basically full economy is supposedly chugging along good and inflation numbers are above targets. And yet they cut?

We maybe in a place where the fed can and will continue to decrease the base rates but there are signs that mortgage rates are not coming down and are going in the direction downward as fast if at all with the Fed.
New fears about more and even larger defecits in the future.

Bryce

Inflation will be on the way back.

Maybe they don't want to overshoot? These decisions are based on where they are trying to go, not where we are at. Look how long it took them to adjust to inflation. I believe the consensus is the economy is slowing down or going to. Remember when they did the triple rate cut in 2019 during the greatest economy in the history of the world?

"Inflation has since fallen and Fed policy rates are coming down as well, a process Powell said is still expected to lead over time to a more neutral rate of interest that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy."

I think this is code for the normal 4%

Yes I remember the rate cuts and we in 19. Didn't agree with it then either

Markets still very positive. Been a lot of milestones for people that are in the markets. The excitement and a new vision going forward has markets excited about the future.

Running on hopes and dreams not on sound business performance and economic growth.

I disagree. The extending of tax cuts, small businesses, oil industry, manufacturing and the list goes on with less gov. on the way. As far as markets go even in good time there is ups and downs in stock markets. Being an investor for just about 50 years this is my experience.

Our economy and the stock market are two different things, and each can have their own way in good and bad times.

Yep. Just waiting for the crash, and when it comes, it’s gonna be brutal. Don’t know if I’ll see it in my lifetime, but for the country I almost hope it comes sooner rather than later. Happy trapping! ScottW

A lot can change once he is inaugurated. If he in fact implements the economic policies he has talked about I think the bond market will rebel...and take stocks down with it.

The ten year treasury has already pushed up from 3.8 in September to 4. 4 neighborhood. If it hits 5% look out below. IMO
The market has already flipped from green to red today........but that could be just because it's Monday

Interesting!! I guess most here see the negative side I look at the positive side of laws and change of thinking going forward as a new beginning for business.

A s far a green flipping to red already I see DJIA still over 300 points as 30 seconds ago. I know most don't follow DJIA but my spreadsheets do.

Right Snowy. Most don't give much credence to the Dow any more. But it is still a form of measurement that a guy can use consistently.

I am sure this rally can run until it doesn't any longer but I think eventually........the bond market will not tolerate what they already view as the inflationary consequences of Trump policies. The consensus is that those policies will add from 8-15 trillion $$$ to the deficit. That will push interest rates higher than they are today. If that doesn't happen (higher rates) then there will be a distinct shortage of buyers for US debt..........which in itself will drive rates higher

At that point fixed income investments will become more advantageous than equities.

If lower tax rates and regulation is accompanied by lower spending then that might change the math but I won't hold my breath for that to happen.

I see the beef markets have been slipping lower but the grains are climbing, usually if the beef market goes down so does the stock market as investors confidence in the peoples personal finances are not good as they’re not buying beef.

Cattle prices have dropped dramatically in WA

Well, meat across the counter may start to get where people can start to afford buying a steak again. Stock market start to go down than buy, buy, buy. Rebalance and buy bonds so many ways you can benefit with whatever the markets do.

Economy health and stock markets are completely different animals and the markets are just a small part of the economy. I have bought for 50 years and never have sold one share of stock. I'm a buyer and hold investor and just take in the good ties with down times and take advantage of what ever it gives me.

Always nice to see stock market go up and yes it will go down just a matter of when.

Lowering of beef prices can well be a sign of consumer liquidity and or available cash is dwindling and with the holidays coming, choices will need to be made. The USDA lowered corn and bean estimates very slightly, but still enough to trigger some price increases. Raining now in Brazil so that can damper beans down the road. Another reason grain got a little lift could well be a lot of front loading by overseas buyers with the uncertainty of tariffs coming down the road. Also there are huge amounts of grain stored on farm and trying to move prices up a bit may release some of that on farm storage.

Bryce

We are in a bit of a conundrum eh?

Eventually there will be only one buyer of US debt.