Yeah I could see her on the FOMC. Doesn't matter if she's chair or not . Still just one vote but a different worldview for sure

And rather attractive lol

you been to the optometrist lately?

Thanks everyone for your insight. Much appreciated. At this point. I continue to invest!! Live with in our means.

Safe early. Save often. I tell this to all the younger folks. It is never too late to save.



One of my hero’s. Ask yourself why is he selling off and hoarding cash. In a rally))))))!!!!!

As White said a stronger dollar will hurt exports especially in the ag sector, Shawn Hackett said they need to print more money to help inflation and lower the value of the dollar because of the situation we are in, what’s the thoughts on that route for the economy?

A strong dollar will decrease US almost all, but ag a lot. We export almost 30% of our commodity production. Also a strong dollar can increase the desire of several naitons to remove the dollar as the exchange currancy for things like oil and others. As our debt goes up and interest rates rise and the dollar stays strong we may have more foreign investors buying our debt. Long term that to me is not a healthy financial situation. A lot of our ag commodity sales are wholesale or not value added so the production does not create a lot of jobs in the US.
There are many issues in our nation that need resolution, how those issues are dealt with will be the major drivers of many aspects of American life in the near and even long term future.
Bryce

few people can put 23k in their 401 and 7 k in a Roth and have anything left to invest. If they do they may be able to put a % in after tax I out the max of 10% after tax and back door that into a 2 time a year so it still a tax advantage account. do that and have more available you may be able to open a health savings account if you qualify and a 529 college savings account is another tax saving option. beyond the tax free growth on the 529 some states offer incentives as well indiana offers a 20% tax credit up to 7500 for married people filing jointly.


401 max contribution limit is going up next year from 23k to 23500 for 2025. your employer match dose not count against that limit. My favorite part of that is it comes out of my check likes taxes and I don't have to think about it and it makes it more likely I'm going to dollar cost average by default instead of having the cash and looking at things at all time highs and thinking I will wait for the dip like I have the tendency to do with my Roth.

Cash is like an ice cube,,,,it’s melting before your eyes

Some people(buffet) have an ice cube the size of Antarctica.

I’m a big buffet fan, but realize he’s so big it’s unrealistic to compare his strategy to the rest of us,,,,

Holding huge amounts of cash because buffet is,,,,,,

Below ia an article that outlines the impact of tariffs.

https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-impact-economy/

Bryce

our country use to have no income tax. It was ran off tariffs. it may impact exports but at the same time domestic consumption should increase to off set it and it should help increase things being produced in our country. we used to be a manufacturing power house and we need to be again. A lot of it is national security concerns buying everything from our potential enemies is not a good way to go.

Protected companies tend to become more inefficient and thus over time goods become more expensive and worker out put drops off and so do jobs over the long run. With a deficit at 1.8 trillion per year with no sign that is going to change, switching over to US made, versus overseas will not be rapid enough to keep the cost of goods from going up significantly. More than likely the total cost of tariffs won't be passed totally on to the consumer so that means profit margins for businesses will go down and that too can deter investing more,in their business.

Bryce

How many Federal programs were there when the U.S. government ran off tariffs? I don't even believe we had much of standing army back then. These tariffs won't be one way. There will be retaliatory tariffs placed on American goods. In the end, only the governments win in this game, not the consumers or the producers.

In the end cheap food from a manipulated market will get more votes and keep everyone happy, well most anyway. And any subsidies to guarantee that homeland safe food (well maybe onions aren't so safe) can be paid out of those consumption taxes. Consumption taxes doesn't rule those that can demand high labor to keep up or else they will shut the country down.
Which is what sent the jobs across the boarder in the first place. So we are back where we started with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, with the squeeze on the working class that's dominated by the greed of the rich and the bare needs of the poor.
Putting the tariffs in the gov kitty keeps the gov from having to print more money nor tax the wealthy. Can't beat no taxes and cheap food.

If musk gets to take his gloves off and eliminates government wast and inefficienty it will be interesting to see .

People can live without TVs. They can't live without food.

ol' dad

"If musk gets to take his gloves off and eliminates government wast and inefficiency it will be interesting to see ".

Hope he starts with the head and not the tail !

There is no way to make government efficient. Second very little of the Federal budget is even touchable ( maybe 25%). That would be the discretionary budget, which the two biggest parts are DOD and VA. Now you are down to 12% or so.

Wonder how much the tariff would be on the Lithium to make a battery. But that's probably in the national interest, so I guess the EPA needs to look the other way for homegrown batteries, lol.

I read this guy every day. He seems pretty well anchored in reality.


His column this morning:


Might the FOMC Spike the Ball Before the End Zone?
Posted November 13, 2024 at 12:00 pm

Steve Sosnick

Chief Strategist

Interactive Brokers







This morning we received the latest report on inflation. In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% on a headline basis and 0.3% excluding food and energy. The readings were in-line with market consensus, but this was the third month in a row that the core rose by 0.3%. That annualizes to about 3.6%. The last time I checked, 3.6% was meaningfully above 2%.

Yet the prevailing view is that the Fed will cut rates once again in December. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 82% chance of another 25 basis point cut, and the IBKR ForecastTrader shows a 77% chance that rates will not be set above 4.375% at the December meeting. Then again, in an interview this morning, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that “another rate cut is certainly possible” in December. Who are we to believe, the data, or a regional Fed President – even if he is currently a non-voting member of the FOMC?

I’ve been around markets too long to advocate for “fighting the tape.” If the market is convinced of an outcome, it is usually better to respect it, at least in the short term. Contrarian opinions are quite important – sometimes the market does indeed get it wrong, and it is crucial to stress-test any investment thesis – but not necessarily when it comes to an impending FOMC meeting. The Powell Fed does not like to surprise markets. So, until or unless we hear Fed talking heads pushing back on the prevailing narrative, the simplest assumption regarding is currently the most obvious one.

But is it the correct one for the economy? I’m highly skeptical of that. Last week we wrote:

My view is that the Fed needn’t have rushed to cut rates in September, nor is there a pressing need to continue cuts. Frankly, there is little real-world evidence that monetary policy is restrictive in practice. There are few, if any, signs of credit market stress, stock markets are at all-time highs, and a 4.1% unemployment rate would have been considered full employment throughout much of recent American history. Quantitative tightening (QT) has reduced the Fed’s balance sheet substantially, though it is far larger than its pre-Covid levels. And while it has reduced the market’s dependence upon reverse repos, it is not as though QT is causing any particular stress

I consume quite a bit of financial media and I’ve yet to hear anyone complain that monetary conditions are preventing them from doing anything they wanted to. They’re not preventing bitcoin’s price from going vertical. During their most recent earnings reports, major investment banks crowed about their investment banking revenues, meaning that corporate borrowers were able to raise money without concern. And not only are major stock indices at or near record highs, seemingly every day there is some oddball name with a triple-digit rise thanks to a relatively minor piece of news.

To be fair, none of these things fall directly under the purview of the Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment, but hot, if not overheated, financial markets do nothing to quell prices that are already rising faster than the Fed would like. At some level, the market recognizes this. On the day after the September 18th meeting, Fed Funds futures were pricing in a rate of 2.85% for December 2025. The current expectation is for 3.81%, nearly a full point higher. That is considerably above the median expectation of 3.375% expressed in the most recent “dot plot”, the Summary of Economic Projections from the FOMC’s September meeting. Considering that the market has spent most of the past year pricing in more aggressive rate cuts than the Fed was willing to offer, this is a significant change in sentiment.

And that is why I am concerned that the Fed is ready to spike the football before reaching the end zone. For those of you who don’t follow American football, that occurs when a player prematurely celebrates scoring a touchdown. In this recent example, the New York Jets (my hapless team) were able to win the game in spite of this mindless blunder. But the folks on the FOMC need to have a better record than the Jets, who perpetually disappoint. Today’s stock market reaction is more of a relief rally, with as expected inflation statistics doing nothing to upset the prevailing trend. But the Fed and the markets need to get on the same page about rates and inflation. We can’t fight inflation by lowering rates.