oil is the #1 cause of inflation! oil is dropping, and it's predicted to go a lot lower ! unless wars keep growing out, inflation will flatting out

Warren Buffet is not putting his cash in a vault. Investing is a long term game. Over years. There was an article about his cash early this summer.
There are many areas of safety.

When the market is fearless you should be fearful

When the market is fearful be greedy!!!!!

Patience is the key!!!

You believe that?

Ken, I've been doing some deep thinking what will happen to markets if/when they lower rates a couple points. Any thoughts?

I see a melt up of epic proportions. I'm thinking the average house price will go to unthinkable levels.

Oil prices are not exceedingly high at the present time. If Saudia Arabia decides to battle for market share prices could go much lower.

All the storms and fires ain't gonna make things too cheap for sure.

It appears we are at the beginning of an epic melt up already.

40 dollar bbl could be on the horizon?

I don't think for an extended period. Drilling, in the US, will drop to near zero at these prices. The Saudis also need near 100 dollar per barrel to maintain their budget. I think a short term price war is completely possible.

What is the consensus for a break even price for US shale production?

I don't know the answer to that question. I can say from personal experience that inflation has not spared the oil industry so break even is higher than it once was.

Those numbers do not surprise me at all.

TRUMP say drill baby drill for one .

Trump can say whatever he wants. There is an economic reality when it comes to producing oil. Or anything for that matter, it can't be below production costs

But I digress, my question was do you believe the price of oil meaningful adds to inflation?

Ooh! Sacrilege! Everybody out here went in the oil business during Obama. Ooh! more Sacrilege ! They all lost their Jobs during Obama too. Price of Oil don't care what dingbat is President!

It doesn't juice inflation as much as out of control government spending. That should be painfully obvious to anyone who was awake the last few years.

Just reflecting back on the 70's, we had Vietnam that got gov spending out of control. The Arabs didn't like our relationship with Israel and jacked up the price of oil, the gov was more worried about stimulating the economy and came out with a big investment credit on machinery, we were buying stuff we didn't even need just to get it directly off the income tax owed. Carter slapped the markets with an embargo. Inflation got to 14 I think. The Feds decided they had to check inflation. The Federal Land Bank (farmer owned not the Feds) interest hit 21% and our local bank hit 23%.
Those loans I got at 7% to buy machinery to get I think the 10% investment credit, I had to roll over to 23%. Our grain market was still crashed from Carter days, Reagan came out with CRP too little to late and Willie Nelson couldn't save the lost farmers with all his efforts, but he gave it a shot.
Inflation mixed with greed is like piranha !
Lots of things from politics, bad weather, shortages of oil and grain and pure greed, and bad timing by the Feds can all cause inflation. Conclusion= Feds are a necessary evil owned by who knows who?

Why is the FED necessary?

Because they say so! I think Kennedy maybe was the last to argue they weren't necessary.

Here is a couple of opinions on the Fed. I kinda find them interesting. I'm not smart enough to really know a better solution. Many times my decisions are made kinda like "And there were four leprous men at the entering in of the gate: and they said one to another, Why sit we here until we die?". Many of my decisions have been made off "knee jerk reactions" which are mere reactions to pain and not knowledge.
The last article kinda reminds me that the Titanic is safe and full steam ahead, lol. I'm not prescribing, just consider them as entertaining, lol.

https://www.heritage.org/monetary-p...he-fed-and-its-mismanagement-our-economy
https://www.heritage.org/monetary-p...congress-should-approach-monetary-policy