I have seen this issue debated by some serious, scholarly Christians. Here is the analysis that makes the most sense to me and (barring a cogent argument to the contrary) the one I believe to be correct.
The basic idea is that the Jewish people and the secular institution that is Israel are two very separate and distinct things. Within the people, there is a "faithful remnant" for whom God holds a special place. The secular state of Israel and those people within it who do not form part of the faithful remnant (whether they are ethnically/religiously Jewish or not) are no different than any unsaved Gentile and there is no special covenant between Him and them. Therefor, it is not necessary to support "Israel - the state" in order to support those Jews who form the faithful remnant.
I don't pretend to understand it on any deeper level than this, and I certainly am not qualified to determine who comprises the faithful remnant and who does not. It is not for me to judge.
But I don't see much biblical support for the argument that we should be consistently in support of a nation state that is "Israel" in name only.
...my 2 cents.
That's more or less my take on it as well. God has His plans and promises to His people much as he does to His elect (now that's sure to open another can of worms) and it's not my place to question that. Nor are they my plans and I'm not privy to the details of how it will play out.
I do struggle with the obvious fufillment of prophecy in the restoration of the state of Israel and how that informs how current nations are to interact with that state though. One could say though that God has done this in the past multiple times, the exodus/lost tribes/babylonian captivity/second temple/etc, and repeatedly Israel fell to pagan practice and sin.
Just one take as a believer is that I'm instructed by scripture to bless his people but are we not to be a blessing to the nations? But blessing isn't a rubber stamp to wrongdoing.
Now that said, the actions of the palestinians are anathema to any civilzed society and imo are deserving of complete and total annihilation.