No I'm not. I think there is a chance the Fed made a mistake last week and may need to back off......but it is rarely successful to fight the Fed.

Of course it won't rise continuously, my belief is it will go back to zero and possibly negative.

White, what is your take on the inverted yield curve between 3 and 5 year bonds?

I hope the rate is not increase in the first quarter next year. I do think the low interest rates of the ast decade has us all a bit spoiled.
The first CD I ever bought was 6 month/6.5%. I was advised to take it for only 6 months because " interest rates won't stay this low for very long and you don't want to be stuck a 6.5%.

Buy till your hearts content. The Gov't proved they won't let ya lose your arse in 2008 by bailing out the banks.

Had that not happened, most giving advise would tell ya to run Forset! lol

Golly, if your investment philosophy is based on chance, shouldn't you be at the tables in the nearest Indian Casino of choice?



Perhaps at that point, I'll have some spare bonds to sell you.

SELL SELL SELL,get out now before you are lining up to try to get 10cents on the dollar.

I usually look at the ratio between 2's & 10's. But regardless of which you follow, an inversion isn't a good sign. All of the recent recessions have been preceded by an inverted curve. ..On the other hand, not every inversion leads to a recession.........sort of like the square and rectangle relationship

I think there are so many uncertainties out there right now that there is a pretty fair chance of a real slowdown in the economy even if we don't tip into recession. But we have to remember that the stock market is not the economy.

I'm real suspicious of this rally today. It just barely managed to recover above the flat line earlier. The proverbial dead cat bounce. At the same time, we have to remember that there has never been a losing 20 year period in the market.

Timing doesn't work. Buying companies with solid fundamental and a bulletproof balance sheet, and holding for the long term is the best formula.......IMO

I'm no expert by any means. I've had some horrible beats over the years but hopefully have learned from them

Kind of like investment grade bonds, eh?

Thank you for explaining some of those terms !

That depends on your motivation.

Regardless, you need to be able to sleep at night with whatever you own.

More correctly: You need to be able to sleep at night with whatever you lose.

That too

I agree that the 2to10 ratio is a better indicator and that inversions are not always preceded by recessions. This time though I think that if the the 2to10 goes inverted we will see a recession if for no other reason than because we are due. We've never seen a 20 year period of only growth lol.

That;s true about a 20 year period of only growth. What I meant was that any 20 year period one chooses, the market has a positive return.

The other thing that I believe is that some of these indicators are self-fulfilling. If enough people believe there will be a recession, they will alter their behavior and ensure a recession happens

The Fed raises rates to slow a growing economy. Wouldn't this be a positive indicator for the economy?

Normally yes. But there are some data that show the rate of growth as slowing, and a rate increase may exacerbate that.

i'm probably wrong but doesn't the stock market always drop now as companies sell off (profit taking) to show investors nice pie charts with big gains plus people are inclined to retire at this time of the year and with 401s the less in there the less is paid out by business's even if it's your money IMO

Yep. You're wrong.

More like a positive indicator for inflation.

IMHO the FED's biggest impetus for raising rates is so they have a tool available during the next recession. Pretty hard to lower rates when they are at zero.

Dirt your reasoning of 2% is better than -10% is good one depending on the persons knowlege, how well feathered one is and while my good Baptist friends would argue there is no such thing as chance, a little luck might not hurt. My grandmother in 1930 didn't trust banks and kept her chicken and cattle money buried in the backyard. Her brother who was a MD lost all but 10% of his money in the bank and had a margin call of $2500. My grandma bailed him out and saved his home and farm. It took forever for him to pay her back as none of his patients had any money either. Each person has to know what is best for himself.