Is posted on their website. Interesting - wonder how it compares with Groenewold.

I read it on the cnta site-looks pretty accurate.

https://www.furharvesters.com/pdf/forecast2020.pdf

Chris

Not the same. Groeny's arrows are more accurate. IMO

!8.5 million Kopenhagen mink and 8.5 million SAGA mink equals 27 million plus the North American crop(NAFA's) and the mink sold out of the Auction process won't be less than 25 million.

They appear to be telling it like it is.

Makes sense too me. Found it sincere.

I'm looking forward to shipping with FHA this year, seems like a solid company

Well noshortage of mink it looks like. But what do i know.

Fashion is what drives the market ,,,supply and demand is a far away second.

100 million mink last year, that's crazy. With all these mink ranches going out of business, and getting production levels back to a more reasonable number it will bode well for the entire fur industry in the future I think.

2013 100 million mink. That would be an estimate.

Kopenhagen just dumped about 7 million skins on the market in September 2019, lucky if the average was $23.

Well, sable prices last March were nothing to write home about.

I'm willing to wait a couple of years or so for prices to improve, we've seen it before; the boom and bust cycle of the ranch mink industry.

It doesn't matter what the commodity is, when supply goes beyond demand, the price comes down. Everyone agrees on this. Every producer knows that on a macro level production must come down.

The problem is that on a micro level, many if not most producers think that they can make up for the low price by increasing their production. This seldom work out for the individual producer. I've seen it happen in many different industries; in the fishing industry I've seen many guys invest in larger boats, larger crews, etc, in an attempt to make up for low price by increasing their effort and volume. Most of the time it doesn't really workout for them, and many times it leads to going broke.

fashion sure is a fickle beast. with the big dip in temps everyone is walking around in a winter coat past my office window. good percentage of those winter coats have some kinda hood with ruff. but of those type of trimmed coats americans are primarily wearing something using synthetic fake fur or fairly low grade fur. at least here, the high dollar canada goose products are pretty exclusively worn by asians. looks like awful niche market. doubt it holds up for much longer particularly with the lower quality coyote trimmed coats that see out there causing a walmart effect on what the end user wants to be seen as exclusive/luxury item. the upside is i've seen a small number of high quality coats walk by that appear to be trimmed in something like western coon. not sure if those are canada goose product or someone else but i bet the fashion trend flips shortly. not that what ive seen so far helps short haired mink, rats, etc.

If you look at the historical records of the HBC,when the Indians were supplying all the fur for the first couple hundred yearsof the trade,when the prices would go high,they would bring in less fur because they would get the same amount of goods they needed for less fur.
When the prices went low,the Indians brought more fur in order to get the equivalent value in goods.
Sort of opposite to how the white man thinks supply and demand works.

When HBC tried to move in on the Chilkat's fur trade, they burnt down their fort.

Got that right Boco.

now they just go and buy it from the white guy and turn it in for their " living off the land production = cheque"

Genuine Mackenzie Valley Furs. Not traceable.

Moose fort changed hands a couple times too.