Africa Covid-19
#7030506
10/28/20 04:56 PM
10/28/20 04:56 PM
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Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 5,570 Dunbar, Wisconsin
Pike River
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Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 5,570
Dunbar, Wisconsin
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Its interesting that Africa is not being devastated by Covid like many thought and is actually faring better than most of the rest of the world.
This April, as the novel coronavirus accelerated its global sweep of devastation, pandemic modelers in Addis Ababa and London had dire predictions for the continent of Africa. They foresaw a best-case scenario of 300 thousand COVID deaths and a worst-case of 3.3 million deaths and 1.2 billion infections without mitigation measures. The World Economic Forum substantiated this by declaring that “in Africa, deaths from COVID-19 might far exceed what the world is seeing.”
Now, seven months later, Africa has recorded 1.2 million cases and 36 thousand deaths. That’s one-tenth of the best-case and one-hundredth of the predicted worst-case scenarios for the continent.
Let’s put this into a global perspective. The global share of COVID deaths to share of the global population is 5 for the US, 2.3 for Europe and 0.26 for Africa.
Scientists, health experts and policymakers within and outside the African continent have struggled to find answers for this stunning observation of an exponentially lower than expected Africa virus toll. Finding solutions to this puzzle will have dramatic implications — not only for Africa but also for the rest of the world.
From presidents to scientists, the continent has taken justifiable pride in these observations. A continent long-inured to being underestimated, misunderstood and subject to colonial stereotyping, has found a resounding public health success to celebrate and rally around.
How can the earth’s poorest continent by almost any health, income, or education measure, including the UN’s Human Development Index, lead the world? How can a continent where 56 percent of its urban population is concentrated in non-social distanced slums, and where only 34 percent of households have access to basic handwashing facilities, largely avoid this viral scourge? These conditions have resulted in Africa having the highest rates of malaria, tuberculosis, AIDS and measles deaths in the world. Not only does COVID not follow this dismal trend, but it has reversed it — demonstrating a dramatically lower toll than any other continent.
This is explained by significant under-diagnosis and underreporting of cases because of a lack of testing capacity and low-quality reporting systems. To date, Africa has conducted only 13 million tests, covering about 1 percent of the population. Massive undercounting is certainly true for infections, but much less evident for deaths, a more reliable indicator of disease burden. It is estimated that official systems capture only one in three deaths in Africa. But even when this is factored in, a dramatically lower African mortality rate persists.
The few antibody surveys that have been conducted in Africa revealed a 5 percent infection rate in Kenya blood donors and a 12 percent infection rate in Malawi health care workers. Kenya’s infection rate is similar to Spain’s in mid-May when Spain had 27,000 deaths. Kenya’s toll was only about 100 at the same time.
Experts within and outside Africa have offered many explanatory hypotheses for Africa’s outperformance. Is there some genetic or pre-existing immune protection? A different and weaker virus strain? An immune boost from other communicable diseases? Cross-immunity from previous coronavirus infections? Cultural factors such as outdoor village life with natural physical distancing? Higher temperatures and humidity?
Africans have highlighted the predominant role of regional policy successes such as tight lockdowns, border controls, and unprecedented continent-wide cooperation, to explain why Sub-Saharan Africa has dodged a deadly wave. Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese businessman, noted that “African governments responded better than governments in the UK or U.S. The virus doesn’t seem to like us.”
Africa has the world’s youngest population by a wide margin. Its median age is 18. Europe’s is 42 and North America’s is 35. COVID’s global toll is skewed exponentially by increasing age. Those over age 65 experience 80 percent of the mortality and those under 15 an extremely low 0.08 percent. That’s a 1000-fold difference.
Does the age-structure of Africa explain most of the continent’s amazing performance? Only 3 percent of Africa’s population is over age 65. The comparable number for North America is 15 percent and 18 percent for Europe. On the younger side of the age spectrum, 41 percent of Africans are under 15, whereas only 19 percent of North Americans and 16 percent of Europeans are in this age group.
The continent’s dramatically young demographic is sufficient to explain it as the main driver of the African COVID experience. Accelerating population immunity will also be a major contributor to putting brakes on the pandemic. So is the age-related observation that 80 percent of Africa's infections are asymptomatic, double the proportion in the rest of the world. Other demographic, genetic, immunologic, environmental and policy factors may certainly contribute and merit intensive study. Epidemiologic puzzles are multifaceted, especially COVID. But for now, this important observation, no longer hypothetical, should frame the approach to sharing transportable science and policy benefits.
Africa’s low illness and the death toll has allowed earlier reopening of societies and revitalizing hard-hit economies and jobs.
The continent’s spectacular success has kindled optimism, determination and cohesion among frequently fragmented regions and countries. It has also spurred extensive scientific collaboration to reap both critical knowledge and vital capacity-building for Africa’s future. Gloriously, Africa is the first in the world to see the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel.
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: Pike River]
#7030523
10/28/20 05:17 PM
10/28/20 05:17 PM
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Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 18,616 Green County Wisconsin
GREENCOUNTYPETE
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Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 18,616
Green County Wisconsin
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if your to weak to survive covid there were 12 other things in Africa that were going to kill you first.
not may 80 year old's in Africa where 65 is OLD
half my family is over 65 with some as old as 92
America only has one issue, we have a Responsibility crisis and everything else stems from it.
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: yukon254]
#7030544
10/28/20 05:38 PM
10/28/20 05:38 PM
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Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 12,395 South Ga - Almost Florida
Swamp Wolf
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Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 12,395
South Ga - Almost Florida
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Wonder why they need to do studies and spend millions to figure this^ out?? Answer is simple. In Africa hospitals and doctors are not getting paid every time a covid case is diagnosed.... Here is the real reason^^^^^
Thank God For Your Blessings! Never Half-Arse Anything!
Resource Protection Service
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: Swamp Wolf]
#7030550
10/28/20 05:48 PM
10/28/20 05:48 PM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,337 The Hill Country of Texas
Leftlane
"HOSS"
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"HOSS"
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,337
The Hill Country of Texas
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Wonder why they need to do studies and spend millions to figure this^ out?? Answer is simple. In Africa hospitals and doctors are not getting paid every time a covid case is diagnosed.... Here is the real reason^^^^^ Sometimes the simplest answer is the only answer you need (Turn CNN off folks- they lied and ppl haven't died [from covid])
“What’s good for me may not be good for the weak minded.” Captain Gus McCrae- Texas Rangers
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: yukon254]
#7030587
10/28/20 06:09 PM
10/28/20 06:09 PM
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Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 5,570 Dunbar, Wisconsin
Pike River
OP
trapper
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OP
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Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 5,570
Dunbar, Wisconsin
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Wonder why they need to do studies and spend millions to figure this^ out?? Answer is simple. In Africa hospitals and doctors are not getting paid every time a covid case is diagnosed.... That has been debunked 3 ways from Sunday for quite some time now.
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: SNIPERBBB]
#7030590
10/28/20 06:10 PM
10/28/20 06:10 PM
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Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 5,570 Dunbar, Wisconsin
Pike River
OP
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OP
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Joined: Oct 2018
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Dunbar, Wisconsin
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Not a single word about hydroxycloroquine...they practically live off the stuff there because it's a malaria treatment. Interesting observation. Perhaps it's that and their general higher immune system?
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: Pike River]
#7030594
10/28/20 06:12 PM
10/28/20 06:12 PM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,337 The Hill Country of Texas
Leftlane
"HOSS"
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"HOSS"
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,337
The Hill Country of Texas
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Wonder why they need to do studies and spend millions to figure this^ out?? Answer is simple. In Africa hospitals and doctors are not getting paid every time a covid case is diagnosed.... That has been debunked 3 ways from Sunday for quite some time now. By who- the same scientific community that said global warming would kill us all by 2020?
“What’s good for me may not be good for the weak minded.” Captain Gus McCrae- Texas Rangers
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: Leftlane]
#7030599
10/28/20 06:15 PM
10/28/20 06:15 PM
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Joined: May 2018
Posts: 10,928 SW Georgia
Wanna Be
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SW Georgia
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You see what I did there right? I see, you jinxed us! 2020 ain’t over yet!
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: Wanna Be]
#7030605
10/28/20 06:17 PM
10/28/20 06:17 PM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,337 The Hill Country of Texas
Leftlane
"HOSS"
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"HOSS"
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 20,337
The Hill Country of Texas
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You see what I did there right? I see, you jinxed us! 2020 ain’t over yet! Yeah but science that isnt junked up by politics might be over unfortunately
“What’s good for me may not be good for the weak minded.” Captain Gus McCrae- Texas Rangers
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: Pike River]
#7030608
10/28/20 06:17 PM
10/28/20 06:17 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 29,888 williamsburg ks
danny clifton
"Grumpy Old Man"
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"Grumpy Old Man"
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 29,888
williamsburg ks
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Wait a minute. A f ew weeks ago black people were more susceptible than white people. I dont believe much of anything on th e news about the zombie virus. At least they are not still claiming that bodies have to be stored in refrigerated truck trailers as there is no room in the morgues.
P.S. those of you that saw that news brief a few days ago that E KS hospitals were so full patients were being sent to Mo can relax. Just one more lie.
Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790)
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: danny clifton]
#7030619
10/28/20 06:29 PM
10/28/20 06:29 PM
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Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 5,570 Dunbar, Wisconsin
Pike River
OP
trapper
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OP
trapper
Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 5,570
Dunbar, Wisconsin
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Wait a minute. A f ew weeks ago black people were more susceptible than white people. I dont believe much of anything on th e news about the zombie virus. At least they are not still claiming that bodies have to be stored in refrigerated truck trailers as there is no room in the morgues.
P.S. those of you that saw that news brief a few days ago that E KS hospitals were so full patients were being sent to Mo can relax. Just one more lie. That's a sad and divisive narrative. It was black Americans and they were tying it to their socioeconomic status(poor whites were having similar numbers). However the poorest Americans are still doing better than the average African. So it kind of blows that argument up that they have.
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Re: Africa Covid-19
[Re: Pike River]
#7030764
10/28/20 08:14 PM
10/28/20 08:14 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 63,115 Minnesota
330-Trapper
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Posts: 63,115
Minnesota
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Not a single word about hydroxycloroquine...they practically live off the stuff there because it's a malaria treatment. Interesting observation. Perhaps it's that and their general higher immune system? Hmmm
NRA and NTA Life Member www.BackroadsRevised@etsy.com
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