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Bitcoin...back to 40k #7092115
12/16/20 10:15 AM
12/16/20 10:15 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERBBB Offline OP
trapper
SNIPERBBB  Offline OP
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
Upto about 20500 atm. Had a drop off to high 16k last week.

49k and change now

Last edited by SNIPERB🦝; 02/04/22 04:10 PM.
Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7092152
12/16/20 10:41 AM
12/16/20 10:41 AM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,922
2A Sanctuaries-W. OK & N. NM
Blaine County Offline
trapper
Blaine County  Offline
trapper

Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,922
2A Sanctuaries-W. OK & N. NM
Financial witchcraft.

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7092176
12/16/20 10:57 AM
12/16/20 10:57 AM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 35,129
McGrath, AK
This is from Barron's this morning. There is a graph in the article that I can't get to copy/paste


How Much Is Bitcoin Really Worth? A New Pricing Model Is Bad News for Bulls.

Mark Hulbert
Dec. 16, 2020 7:00 am ET


Bitcoin’s price is more than 50% higher than its fair value of about $12,000.

That’s one of the implications I draw from a new analysis of the various valuation frameworks for determining the cryptocurrency’s fair price. Entitled “Bitcoin Is Exactly Like Gold Except When It Isn’t,” the analysis was conducted by Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group.

I first wrote about Erb’s analysis of precious metals in a February 2013 column for Barron’s. His conclusion at the time, reached jointly with Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University, was that gold’s fair value was less than half its then-current price.

Gold fell by $600 an ounce over the subsequent 2½ years. That alone inclines me to pay close attention to what he is now saying about Bitcoin.

This cryptocurrency has been on a tear of late, with a year-to-date gain of 170%. In recent days, in fact, Bitcoin has risen to new all-time highs, eclipsing its prior high set in late 2017.

The valuation framework that concludes Bitcoin’s fair price is about $12,000 is based on the thesis that its value derives from what’s known as a “network effect.” That is, a network’s value grows faster than the number of connected users. (This framework is related to what’s known as Metcalfe’s Law, which holds that a network’s value grows according to the square of the number of users.)



To test the explanatory power of this network-effect framework, Erb made the simplifying assumption that each Bitcoin that has been mined represents one user in a Bitcoin network. He then calculated the way that the price of Bitcoin has traded relative to the number of Bitcoins that have been mined up to that point. As you can see from the accompanying chart, his model does a good job of capturing Bitcoin’s price rise over the past decade.

According to this model, Erb said in an interview, Bitcoin’s fair price as of Dec. 14 is $12,315. Bitcoin’s actual Dec. 14 price of $19,201 is 56% higher.


Of course, a social-network framework is not the only way in which analysts have proposed calculating Bitcoin’s fair price. Erb nevertheless suggests we give it serious consideration because no other relative valuation approach is empirically more plausible—and the predictions of the social-network framework are impressively correlated with the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price history.

Using the social-network framework to value Bitcoin also allows us to forecast how much it will rise in the future. That’s because its underlying code stipulates both the maximum number of Bitcoins that will ever exist (21 million) as well as how quickly they can be mined (this limit isn’t likely to be reached until 2140). According to Erb’s econometric model, a 21-million-user network translates to a Bitcoin price of $74,000. Relative to its current price, that represents a 1.2% annualized return over the next 120 years.
Hedging Inflation

Some other approaches for valuing Bitcoin contend that it’s a good inflation hedge. But Erb says those approaches are less empirically plausible than the network effect framework.

He points out that a key precondition for something being a good inflation hedge is that its real, or inflation-adjusted, price is relatively stable. But Bitcoin doesn’t satisfy this precondition, at least if we use the consumer-price index as a proxy for inflation. Over the past decade, the ratio of Bitcoin to the CPI has ranged from a low of near zero to a high of over 73.

Bitcoin is even less of a good inflation hedge than gold. That’s relevant because many of Bitcoin’s supporters argue that it is “Gold 2.0.” The gold/CPI ratio over the past decade has ranged between a low of around 3 to a high of around 8, and while that’s wider than what it should be if gold were a good inflation hedge, it’s far narrower than the comparable ratio for Bitcoin.

The bottom line? Erb’s analysis offers something useful for Bitcoin’s devotees: a valuation model that can be used to estimate the cryptocurrency’s fair value. It’s entirely possible that there is another model that does an even better job than his of explaining Bitcoin’s price history. Meanwhile, Erb’s social-network framework introduces a quantitative discipline into an arena that heretofore has been characterized largely by marketing slogans.


https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-bitcoin-is-overpriced-by-more-than-50-51608120001?mod=hp_LEAD_3


Mean As Nails
Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7092187
12/16/20 11:01 AM
12/16/20 11:01 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERBBB Offline OP
trapper
SNIPERBBB  Offline OP
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives hit new highs this week
by MK Manoylov
December 15, 2020, 5:39PM EST · 1 min read
This week saw open interest in bitcoin options and futures surge to new highs, according to data collected by The Block Research.

On Sunday, open interest for bitcoin options reached $4.81 billion. Open interest refers to the total amount of contracts that have yet to be settled at a given time.

Eighty-one percent of bitcoin options open interest was on market leader Deribit, followed by Bit.com (6%) and CME (5.4%).





Open interest on Bitcoin futures reached $7.38 billion, a new high, the following day, per the data. OKEx led the way at 18.9%. Binance and CME were nearly tied at 15.6% and 14%, respectively.



ADVERTISEMENT

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7092381
12/16/20 01:40 PM
12/16/20 01:40 PM
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,187
IA, WI, ND, IL
M
martyd Offline
trapper
martyd  Offline
trapper
M

Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,187
IA, WI, ND, IL
The Bit coin is latest Beanie Baby Investment. Watch out. MD

Last edited by martyd; 12/16/20 01:40 PM.
Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: white17] #7092452
12/16/20 02:57 PM
12/16/20 02:57 PM
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 296
NE Wisconsin
DecoyMacoy Offline
trapper
DecoyMacoy  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 296
NE Wisconsin
.... or possibly the greatest savings technology to ever exist.

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: white17] #7092472
12/16/20 03:19 PM
12/16/20 03:19 PM
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 296
NE Wisconsin
DecoyMacoy Offline
trapper
DecoyMacoy  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 296
NE Wisconsin
Originally Posted by white17
This is from Barron's this morning. There is a graph in the article that I can't get to copy/paste


How Much Is Bitcoin Really Worth? A New Pricing Model Is Bad News for Bulls.

Mark Hulbert
Dec. 16, 2020 7:00 am ET


Bitcoin’s price is more than 50% higher than its fair value of about $12,000.

That’s one of the implications I draw from a new analysis of the various valuation frameworks for determining the cryptocurrency’s fair price. Entitled “Bitcoin Is Exactly Like Gold Except When It Isn’t,” the analysis was conducted by Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group.

I first wrote about Erb’s analysis of precious metals in a February 2013 column for Barron’s. His conclusion at the time, reached jointly with Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University, was that gold’s fair value was less than half its then-current price.

Gold fell by $600 an ounce over the subsequent 2½ years. That alone inclines me to pay close attention to what he is now saying about Bitcoin.

This cryptocurrency has been on a tear of late, with a year-to-date gain of 170%. In recent days, in fact, Bitcoin has risen to new all-time highs, eclipsing its prior high set in late 2017.

The valuation framework that concludes Bitcoin’s fair price is about $12,000 is based on the thesis that its value derives from what’s known as a “network effect.” That is, a network’s value grows faster than the number of connected users. (This framework is related to what’s known as Metcalfe’s Law, which holds that a network’s value grows according to the square of the number of users.)



To test the explanatory power of this network-effect framework, Erb made the simplifying assumption that each Bitcoin that has been mined represents one user in a Bitcoin network. He then calculated the way that the price of Bitcoin has traded relative to the number of Bitcoins that have been mined up to that point. As you can see from the accompanying chart, his model does a good job of capturing Bitcoin’s price rise over the past decade.

According to this model, Erb said in an interview, Bitcoin’s fair price as of Dec. 14 is $12,315. Bitcoin’s actual Dec. 14 price of $19,201 is 56% higher.


Of course, a social-network framework is not the only way in which analysts have proposed calculating Bitcoin’s fair price. Erb nevertheless suggests we give it serious consideration because no other relative valuation approach is empirically more plausible—and the predictions of the social-network framework are impressively correlated with the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price history.

Using the social-network framework to value Bitcoin also allows us to forecast how much it will rise in the future. That’s because its underlying code stipulates both the maximum number of Bitcoins that will ever exist (21 million) as well as how quickly they can be mined (this limit isn’t likely to be reached until 2140). According to Erb’s econometric model, a 21-million-user network translates to a Bitcoin price of $74,000. Relative to its current price, that represents a 1.2% annualized return over the next 120 years.
Hedging Inflation

Some other approaches for valuing Bitcoin contend that it’s a good inflation hedge. But Erb says those approaches are less empirically plausible than the network effect framework.

He points out that a key precondition for something being a good inflation hedge is that its real, or inflation-adjusted, price is relatively stable. But Bitcoin doesn’t satisfy this precondition, at least if we use the consumer-price index as a proxy for inflation. Over the past decade, the ratio of Bitcoin to the CPI has ranged from a low of near zero to a high of over 73.

Bitcoin is even less of a good inflation hedge than gold. That’s relevant because many of Bitcoin’s supporters argue that it is “Gold 2.0.” The gold/CPI ratio over the past decade has ranged between a low of around 3 to a high of around 8, and while that’s wider than what it should be if gold were a good inflation hedge, it’s far narrower than the comparable ratio for Bitcoin.

The bottom line? Erb’s analysis offers something useful for Bitcoin’s devotees: a valuation model that can be used to estimate the cryptocurrency’s fair value. It’s entirely possible that there is another model that does an even better job than his of explaining Bitcoin’s price history. Meanwhile, Erb’s social-network framework introduces a quantitative discipline into an arena that heretofore has been characterized largely by marketing slogans.


https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-bitcoin-is-overpriced-by-more-than-50-51608120001?mod=hp_LEAD_3


I bet social-networks don't even fit Barron's social-network model. Haha.

I wouldn't go to my butcher for carpentry advice just like i wouldn't go to a 100 yr old dying institution for technology advice.

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7092507
12/16/20 03:51 PM
12/16/20 03:51 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,837
Magna, Utah
G
GritGuy Offline
trapper
GritGuy  Offline
trapper
G

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,837
Magna, Utah
Bitcoin reminds me of the California fire situation, it's tremendously terrible one day or week, then it jumps to a record , then in a week lose's it all and wanders around some more for more fuel !


[Linked Image]

Sorry if my opinions or replies offend you, they are not meant to !

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: Blaine County] #7092811
12/16/20 08:08 PM
12/16/20 08:08 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 10,421
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
trapper
Steven 49er  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: May 2010
Posts: 10,421
mn north of blakely
Originally Posted by Blaine County
Financial witchcraft.


You mean like a debt backed currency?


"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: GritGuy] #7092823
12/16/20 08:13 PM
12/16/20 08:13 PM
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,554
North central Iowa
B
Bob_Iowa Offline
trapper
Bob_Iowa  Offline
trapper
B

Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,554
North central Iowa
Originally Posted by GritGuy
Bitcoin reminds me of the California fire situation, it's tremendously terrible one day or week, then it jumps to a record , then in a week lose's it all and wanders around some more for more fuel !


This is the same as the grain markets are normally.

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: Steven 49er] #7092825
12/16/20 08:16 PM
12/16/20 08:16 PM
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,922
2A Sanctuaries-W. OK & N. NM
Blaine County Offline
trapper
Blaine County  Offline
trapper

Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,922
2A Sanctuaries-W. OK & N. NM
Originally Posted by Steven 49er
Originally Posted by Blaine County
Financial witchcraft.


You mean like a debt backed currency?


Both.

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7092938
12/16/20 09:26 PM
12/16/20 09:26 PM
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 9,153
Alaska and Washington State
W
waggler Offline
trapper
waggler  Offline
trapper
W

Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 9,153
Alaska and Washington State
I friend of mine just had over $20K of Bitcoin stolen out of his account; absolutely no recourse.
He said he should have not have had any of the account information on his computer, I guess phones are somewhat better but not really the answer. He told me how it account information should be stored but I wasn't really paying attention since I don't plan to buy any.
Apparently over a billion dollars of Bitcoin has been stolen recently.


"My life is better than your vacation"
Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7092948
12/16/20 09:32 PM
12/16/20 09:32 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERBBB Offline OP
trapper
SNIPERBBB  Offline OP
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
You should have 2-step authentication on any kind of bank account.

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7092960
12/16/20 09:39 PM
12/16/20 09:39 PM
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 3,928
NY
Canvasback2 Offline
trapper
Canvasback2  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 3,928
NY
Couple of questions:


1. If you bought $10,000 in Bitcoins when it first hit the market, What would that original $10,000 in Bitcoins be worth now?


2. How do you covert Bitcoins into real cash???

Last edited by Canvasback2; 12/16/20 09:40 PM.
Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7093013
12/16/20 10:01 PM
12/16/20 10:01 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERBBB Offline OP
trapper
SNIPERBBB  Offline OP
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
1. in the millions as it was pretty cheap in the beginning, talking about pennies or fractions of
2. through paypal. the exchanges, depending on what you use make it pretty easy. in the early days there was no such thing

Last edited by SNIPERB🦝; 12/16/20 10:06 PM.
Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7093022
12/16/20 10:06 PM
12/16/20 10:06 PM
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 3,928
NY
Canvasback2 Offline
trapper
Canvasback2  Offline
trapper

Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 3,928
NY
If I have the amount right, it was selling for $0.0008 a Bitcoin x $10.000

That would be $252,000,000,000.

That's $252 Billion Dollars !!!

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: waggler] #7093028
12/16/20 10:08 PM
12/16/20 10:08 PM
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 16,988
Fredonia, PA.
Finster Offline
trapper
Finster  Offline
trapper

Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 16,988
Fredonia, PA.
Originally Posted by waggler
I friend of mine just had over $20K of Bitcoin stolen out of his account; absolutely no recourse.
He said he should have not have had any of the account information on his computer, I guess phones are somewhat better but not really the answer. He told me how it account information should be stored but I wasn't really paying attention since I don't plan to buy any.
Apparently over a billion dollars of Bitcoin has been stolen recently.

This is what I do not understand. A bitcoin is a number. and everyone is different. As long as that number is registered to you, how can it be stolen? There are only so many bitcoins unless you mine one yourself. I don't know, the entire thing is hokum in my book.


I BELIEVE IN MY GOD, MY COUNTRY AND IN MYSELF.
Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: Finster] #7093035
12/16/20 10:10 PM
12/16/20 10:10 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERBBB Offline OP
trapper
SNIPERBBB  Offline OP
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
Originally Posted by Finster
Originally Posted by waggler
I friend of mine just had over $20K of Bitcoin stolen out of his account; absolutely no recourse.
He said he should have not have had any of the account information on his computer, I guess phones are somewhat better but not really the answer. He told me how it account information should be stored but I wasn't really paying attention since I don't plan to buy any.
Apparently over a billion dollars of Bitcoin has been stolen recently.

This is what I do not understand. A bitcoin is a number. and everyone is different. As long as that number is registered to you, how can it be stolen? There are only so many bitcoins unless you mine one yourself. I don't know, the entire thing is hokum in my book.

account security. if someone gets through your password and authentification, youre in trouble

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7093507
12/17/20 09:32 AM
12/17/20 09:32 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERBBB Offline OP
trapper
SNIPERBBB  Offline OP
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
23k now.

Re: Bitcoin clears 20k [Re: SNIPERBBB] #7093509
12/17/20 09:34 AM
12/17/20 09:34 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERBBB Offline OP
trapper
SNIPERBBB  Offline OP
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 17,550
Rodney,Ohio
Originally Posted by SNIPERB🦝
Past 19k now. Won't be surprised if it hits 23k by new years.

Picking up coat tails now.

Last edited by SNIPERB🦝; 12/17/20 09:34 AM.
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