Re: Aurora Borealis Event This Weekend
[Re: Sharon]
#7393211
10/31/21 06:39 PM
10/31/21 06:39 PM
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Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 11,535 Montana ,Rocky Mtns.
Sharon
OP
"American Honey"
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OP
"American Honey"
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 11,535
Montana ,Rocky Mtns.
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OK peeps, one of the administrators for the Northern Lights group watch posted this... "About last night: Classic X Flare Bust So, last night certainly didn't behave exactly as hoped. This is the thing about high expectation events ... they have an equally high opportunity for disappointment, since a lot can happen in the 150,000,000 km between here and the Sun. NOAA has kicked the Kp7 forecast down the road to this afternoon, anticipating that the CME could be 24 hours late (this is why I always add a +/-24hr margin of error to event forecasts). Personally, I'm not holding my breath; IF the CME is 24 hours late, it might be a LOT slower than expected and might not have enough speed to drive conditions up to Kp7." Deciding to dig into this further, I got some explanations along the way.....the group is very helpful. There's also a Canadian group I monitor too, just as helpful. Below are some comment answers I received. "Wait and see. Sometimes they arrive early, sometimes late, others just miss the planet, skip off the magnetosphere, etc. " "the Auroras are space weather so yep, just like the weather on earth" "Remember that this is a space weather forecast not an aurora forecast. The forecast is needed for safety of the power grid and satellites, gps, etc. Then, the forecast can be used for predicting aurora." "If it shows up during local daylight (so a few hours early/late) you can't see it even though it may be clear skies and spectacularly powerful." "At the moment, all we have is a confirmed CME (coronal mass ejection) from the Sun headed our way. BUT, it's travelling 150,000,000 km to get here, and a lot can happen along the way. So, we wait." I learned space weather is much like weather on the planet here . Fronts can slow, delay, change direction slightly. Even if it redirected a bit or stalled, there were still some good turnouts for others in the right areas, as I posted today of last night's captures. Everyone is still waiting for tonight . NOAH is resetting the delay for this afternoon into tonight. No matter what, I love this time of year , fall into winter, and look to see them anytime . I'll keep y'all posted .
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Re: Aurora Borealis Event This Weekend
[Re: Sharon]
#7396710
11/04/21 03:42 PM
11/04/21 03:42 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,548 NWWA/AZ
Vinke
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,548
NWWA/AZ
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If you have CB or 10 meter radio, turn it on at night and you will know when they are visible by the sound of the voice and were the transmissions are coming from
Slightly used Shoes 4 sale,,,,,,May special,,, Act Now... Free Sock with every purchase
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Re: Aurora Borealis Event This Weekend
[Re: Sharon]
#7396737
11/04/21 04:26 PM
11/04/21 04:26 PM
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,548 NWWA/AZ
Vinke
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 8,548
NWWA/AZ
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Solar flares are what old time ham operators live for. To bad most of these guys are dead
Slightly used Shoes 4 sale,,,,,,May special,,, Act Now... Free Sock with every purchase
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Re: Aurora Borealis Event This Weekend
[Re: Sharon]
#7396893
11/04/21 07:59 PM
11/04/21 07:59 PM
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Joined: May 2010
Posts: 1,545 Missouri
Broomchaser
trapper
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trapper
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 1,545
Missouri
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Not as brilliant but the wife and I saw it in east central Missouri. Just small changes in the northern horizon. Second time for me. Last time I was in Iowa trapping coons. Much better show.
Get the US out of the UN and the UN out of the US.
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